Iran sends massive missiles to Israel...the situation in the Middle East is in full swing.

■ Host: anchor Lee Jung-seop, anchor Cho Ye-jin
■ Video connection: Baek Seung-hoon, full-time researcher at the Middle East Research Institute at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News START] when quoting.

[Anchor]
From our perspective, Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on Israel early this morning. This happened yesterday after Israel launched a ground war in Lebanon against the pro-Iranian militant group Hezbollah. There are growing concerns that armed conflict in the Middle East could escalate into an all-out war. Let's take Baek Seung-hoon, a full-time researcher at the Middle East Research Institute at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, to examine the situation in the Middle Researcher, are you connected?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
How are you?

[Anchor]
As the conflict in the Middle East intensified, what was feared became a reality. First of all, Iran has launched a retaliatory attack against Israel, so can you clean up this issue first?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
It's early Tuesday. Iran has fired more than 180 projectiles at Israel. Now there's talk of about 200 shots fired, 180 shots fired, but anyway, the Israeli military says Iran fired 180 projectiles, and then Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Admiral Daniel Hagari called the shelling a serious attack on Israel, saying Israel would hold them accountable for this security threat. However, U.S. Secretary of State Antony immediately briefed that the U.S. and Israel cooperated to effectively defend against the Iranian attack. However, it appears that some Iranian projectiles have struck Israel's ground. However, Iran's attack in April, which Israel blocked 99%, is likely to be more damaging than the attack, but in any case, Israel and the United States have done nothing. And I'm saying that I blocked everything. However, there is a different story coming from the Iranian side. Iran said in a state-run broadcast that more than 90% of its missiles hit the target. And then some reports say that 20 F-35 fighter jets were destroyed at Israel's so-called Nepartin Air Force Base, but I think it's true now that Israel and the United States are talking about no major damage.

[Anchor]
Now, Iran has said that if Israel retaliates in the future, it will fight back again. With the atmosphere of war in the Middle East escalating, what do you think of the possibility of Iran launching further attacks?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
It's true that now that Iran's proxies - Hezbollah, which had close ties to Iran and engaged in proxy wars - have died, and now that the leaders of the Hamas political establishment, Haniyeh and Nasrallah, have come to the point where Iran is taking any action. However, from the standpoint of Iran, it is not an easy choice to play a ground war. This is because it is not easy for Iran to send large-scale ground troops. So, so far, the possibility of a full-fledged ground war between Iran and Israel is unlikely to be joined by regular troops or between the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Israel in a ground war.

[Anchor]
So it was two months ago in July that Iran finally declared its retaliation for the timing of the attack. Since Hamas leader Haniye died in Iran, he must have been very careful until now, so why do you think the attack started at this time?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
As I said, I'm sure you've already heard a lot from Iran's point of view. Didn't Iranian President Pezeshikyan also keep saying that we are being forced to be dragged into the trap set by Israel now? Israel's trap because, as I said before, the head of Hezbollah, Haniyeh, was brought to Iran at the inauguration of Iran's presidential office as a member of their own invitation, and he was terrorized in Iran's territory, in the space where Iran's autonomy was being exercised. So in a way, this is Iran's responsibility. An incident in which Iran was bombarded by their accommodation after they could not come and protect it. And then Hezbollah, which fought Iran's proxy war for its life, and Nasrallah, who was in close proximity to the Iranian leadership, died, and Iran did nothing. It's just that Iran's only way of doing anything right now, under pressure from Israel or the international community, the only proxy war that can be used to realize their goals, the shadow war, is done when the heads of those two forces are dead? Then it's like losing the assets they can use in the future. So, from Iran's point of view, of course, as I've just said, they're in a situation where they have no choice but to show their response to Israel in this way even though they don't have many available assets and available means, and they seem to have been forced to launch the best attack they can against Israel in that situation.

[Anchor]
So, researcher, what do you think of the possibility of Israel launching a counterattack? When and where do you expect to hit if you come forward?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
In any case, Israel is now in the war against Hezbollah, so it's starting to send ground troops now. So rather than a full-fledged attack on Iran, I think we're probably going to be more aggressive in attacking Hezbollah, Iran's most powerful proxy war tool, so Hezbollah. So it looks like they're going to be bolder in their so-called local operations of attacking Hezbollah's base in southern Lebanon and destroying facilities.

[Anchor]
If so, I'm curious about the U.S. response, but as far as the U.S. said, the White House said that the U.S. destroyer also joined the Iranian attack and intercepted the missile. If so, I'm also curious about the future U.S. response.

[Baek Seung Hoon]
The U.S. has already said it. The U.S. has said it will actively participate in military operations to protect Israel's territory. So, as we've shown this time, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iran, any force, they're given a perfect shield from Israel, and one operation is that they're given a shield, so that they can be the basis for a more daring attack on the outside world. But there is also this. The U.S. strategy is to protect Israel and prevent the other's provocations and such things from escalating, but by providing this perfect protection in the future, it also sends a message to Israel. After the attack on Hamas, we will also allow so-called limited military attacks on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. But if we go beyond these attacks, the protection we've done so far will continue to send a message that we can't protect, and in a way, we have a deterrent to war against Iran and Hezbollah on the surface, but on the contrary, we have a stance that uses influence over Israel to prevent further escalation and things like that, and I think we'll probably continue to do that in the future.

[Anchor]
What do you want now for Israel to launch such a bold attack despite the U.S. being so dissuaded from escalating?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
I think there are two aspects. First of all, from Israel's point of view, the war started by the all-time terrorist acts against them. From the Hamas war. So, to destroy Hamas for doing that, some of the stops against Hezbollah, the facilitators and accomplices that made that possible, were now necessary. So, as Israel has already said, they have repeatedly said that this operation is to break the link between Hamas and Hezbollah. And for the Netanyahu government, it's impossible to defeat and destroy the Houthis. So, without a complete victory over Hamas in that impossible situation, Netanyahu and the administration are in political danger, which also affects this military operation. Israel's continued military operations are also being held back by the United States. And the Hamas war that lasted for more than a year, and a bold attack was needed to find the daily lives of the people of northern Israel, estimated to be 50,000 to 70,000 Israeli refugees. That's why the U.S. deterrence doesn't work. And the second is from an external diplomatic perspective, which is that Israel now has a strategic calculation that cracks the so-called resistance axis through this war. That's why we're continuing to fight like this. So they're saying they're going to put Iran in trouble by bringing Iran into this war. Presently, Fezeshikyan is a progressive president who says Iran's security threat is economic sanctions and is elected. So there's also an Israeli plan to drag this Iran into a war swamp so that even if Harris becomes president in the future, he won't be able to restore the comprehensive nuclear deal that would lift Iran's economic sanctions. And as I showed you this time, even if Iran attacks Hezbollah, attacks Hamas, explosions, there are not many cards that Iran can use. The fact that Iran doesn't have many cards to use other than missile launches to attack with such asymmetric forces also aims to disgrace Iran by showing it to its so-called forces, the axis of resistance. So that's what it's like. Look, Iran, which didn't mind the proxy war you have as your brother, is trying to shake the axis of resistance by showing what you can do in an emergency. And that's why Israel is continuing to escalate, despite the opposition of the United States and the international community. But there is something like this. Will such Israeli operations, as I said, weaken the axis of resistance? Because rather these are the forces of resistance, Israel is this bad and evil. It remains to be seen whether it will be the starting point for us to rally again that we cannot fight if we do not unite. So internally, Israel must have international support to fight, political, and diplomatic battles with many Arab countries, and we have to wait and see if this is going to be of great help to Israel after the war if it attacks against the U.S. deterrence and then the international deterrence. I think you have to look at it from all these aspects to understand why Israel is so committed to the opposition of the United States, and to judge whether it would be beneficial for Israel to act like this.

[Anchor]
I see. He pointed out a certain diagnosis of Israel's strategy, the goal of cracking the axis of resistance, and Iran's internal and external dilemmas. Then it was Iran that is leading the axis of resistance anyway. So, what do you think about the prospect of these credentials lowering a little and really cracking the axis of resistance and reducing such influence?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
Whatever happens now, the impact... we have to wait and see if the solidarity axis will be broken or weakened, as I said. Because from Hezbollah's point of view, in a way, seven top leaders, and then 20 top general-level leaders, have been killed for Israel's successful military operation. In this situation, we have no choice but to rely on Iran somehow, so it remains to be seen whether this solidarity will break in the long run, but as you said, in the short term, it is true that it has weakened considerably. Because as I said earlier, Iran doesn't have many means to project their power in the current situation. For example, sending ground troops, how are you going to send ground troops, from the standpoint of Iran? If you send it by land, you have to come to Israel like that through Iraq and Syria, which is not easy, and you send ground troops using an air force transport group? As it shows now, air power is overwhelmingly superior to Israel and the United States, so putting it in through transport planes is bound to be a target that can be shot down so easily that there is not much they can do. Then, in the end, in the current situation, we have to use asymmetric forces, Hezbollah or something like this, or we have to use other forces called Fakihezbollah in Iraq, other militias, but as you said, Hezbollah's leadership is now very broken, and of course, everyone is judging that this is a problem that can be restored in the short term. But, as I have said, it is true that the short-term war with Israel now has been very difficult for Iran, Hezbollah, and the axis of resistance. But it remains to be seen how this will affect us in the medium and long term. From Israel's point of view, maybe if they've all stopped to some extent, they're going to negotiate a cease-fire. Then Iran and Hezbollah would probably be too disgraceful in the current situation, but because they don't have a card available to them, the chances of negotiating a cease-fire have increased. Therefore, there is not much that the axis of resistance can do in future wars. And I hate to do this analysis, but it's clear that Israel's military operations, arrows to the north, and assassinations are ultimately the only means to increase their peace negotiating power. So we have to wait and see if the Axis Forces of Resistance can launch a big attack on Israel now. Because as I've just said, they're using the delegation Twitter at the United Nations, so now it's X. Or the message from a number of high-ranking Iranian officials was that we retaliated. And they say that if Israel does something bigger or another attack, there will be more retaliation, so in a way, they do what they do, and now they're giving the ball to Israel. That indicates a desire to end the situation to some extent, so in my view, there are not many means for the Iranian resistance axis to attack Israel significantly now. And the possibility of negotiations has increased. And the ball fell to Israel. So it's necessary for the United States to show a lot of deterrence against Israel right now, so you can see that.

[Anchor]
It also seems that the need for our government to actively prepare for uncertainties in the Middle East is growing. What measures do you think are urgent, such as protecting Korean residents in the Middle East?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
We've already talked about it in our government. It was already said last week that we are now talking about a plan to send a fleet to take out all the people in Lebanon in the worst case scenario. And when I keep saying it now, I think it's a good move to tell the people to come out when there's still a civil aircraft and leave Lebanon. Continuing to tell Korean residents in Lebanon to leave Lebanon somehow when there is a civil aircraft, and to prepare for the evacuation of the people by ship, which the government said last week, not only by ship but also by military transport plane or chartered plane. If it's not easy to move by chartered plane, it's a neighboring country, Iraq, anywhere, or a different area. But it's not easy. The location of Lebanon. But it's a multi-faceted so-called evacuation operation that uses a chartered plane to cross over to another border and take that chartered plane. I think it's important to create various options like that.

[Anchor]
Israel's ground war in Lebanon began yesterday, and I'm curious about whether the goal is to destroy Hezbollah in the end, but this could be more advanced. What do you think about this?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
I look at it like this. Hezbollah can't be destroyed. From Israel's point of view. Because Hezbollah is a party that has entered the system anyway. So Hezbollah is a party with 13 lawmakers. If Israel destroys Hezbollah, it's not just a collapse of Hezbollah, it's a state-to-state conflict called Lebanon. But this is something that the United States of course does not allow, and Israel does not have that in mind. So I don't want to fight Lebanon because I keep talking. Israel says Hezbollah strikes are their goal and does not even bring up Hezbollah's destruction. It means that we're going to curb our influence on southern Hezbollah. So this time, Israel has revealed that they are telling the Lebanese people that you should go 30 miles, 40 kilometers above the Israeli border. Israel is working on what it calls a "buffer zone," a "buffer zone," a "buffer zone" in southern Lebanon, trying to keep Hezbollah or anti-Israel forces from gaining ground. And one thing that we need to do is that Israel will fight its own local war. And he said he would carry out limited military operations, but that's inevitable because the UN peacekeeping force is out in southern Lebanon now. So, Poland, Finland, Nepal, Korea, the United States, Italy, and Ghana are now in the name of various UN peacekeepers. So if this becomes a really big all-out war and damages the multinational forces, from Israel's point of view, this is a big irreversible war crime. So, as you said, this is not a situation where we can defeat Hezbollah, or a full-scale war against Lebanon, so Israel's military goal is to push the Hezbollah forces that continued to support Hamas on the northern border of Israel 40 kilometers above the so-called Ritani River, or the Israeli border, to create a buffer zone, so that there is no security threat to Israel, so that Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza or the West Bank, Their goal is to completely destroy the forces that continue to carry out terrorist attacks on Israel, which has already begun and continued to be revealed in the big frame. So things are happening within that big goal. Of course, if you go to war, there will be no escalation because it can be like this and some accident can lead to escalation. I can't say for sure that it won't spread much more, but considering the current situation, international politics, U.S. intervention, and Iran's actions, Israel's dispatch of ground forces to Lebanon is likely to take place in Israel.

[Anchor]
I see. In reality, it is difficult to destroy Hezbollah, but it seems that the purpose is to cut off support for terrorism. So far, I've talked with Baek Seung-hoon, a full-time researcher at the Middle East Research Institute at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. Thank you for talking today.

[Baek Seung Hoon]
Thank you.