[News UP] Trump's return...What impact will it have on Korea's economy and security?

■ Host: Anchor Yoon Jae-hee
■ Starring: Min Jeong-hoon, Professor of the American Research Department at the National Diplomatic Institute

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News UP] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Let's analyze in detail how Trump's election will affect our country. Min Jeong-hoon, a professor of American Studies at the National Diplomatic Institute, is here. Welcome. President-elect Trump has professed U.S. priority and ultra-strong protectionism, but South Korea, which relies on exports, is in a situation that could be hurt, what do you think?

[Minjeonghun]
In addition to strengthening exports to the U.S., significant changes are expected in the eco-friendly energy sector that the Biden administration has worked on, so I think some adjustments will be inevitable in this regard because Korean companies have invested heavily in the U.S. with eco-friendly energy. However, as candidate Trump is re-elected this time, we expect that our companies, the government, and academia will be able to prepare well without much damage because they have prepared for various scenarios.

[Anchor]
Experts say that uncertainty will intensify in high-tech industries, and semiconductors are particularly interested. How can we anticipate that?

[Minjeonghun]
President-elect Trump's position is why the Biden administration provides large subsidies to facilitate the semiconductor business of foreign companies. They argue that if high tariffs are imposed, foreign companies will naturally build factories in the United States and do business in the United States. It's just simple logic. In any case, it is necessary to maintain China's status in the high-tech sector for semiconductors and to still have a relative advantage in the U.S. for strategic reasons. To that end, the focus is on curbing Chinese companies through cooperation with allies and partners, at least in the short term and in the medium term.

In that regard, it will be difficult for the second Trump administration to make a difference strategically. However, in the method of pursuing it, to what extent the scale can be reduced in the part of subsidies to foster semiconductors called the Chips method, and to what extent the beneficiaries can change. There's something I'm concerned about in this area. I think we need to respond preemptively to this.

[Anchor]
Yesterday, President Yoon Suk Yeol and President-elect Trump talked on the phone, and Trump asked me to help the shipbuilding industry. What was the reason?

[Minjeonghun]
In Trump's view, isn't naval power very important to check China? However, as you know well, the US shipbuilding industry has lost its competitiveness and been almost rejected, leaving behind the golden age of the 1950s. Of course, the original technology, design capability, and design capability are still held by the United States.Ma almost lost the ability to manufacture, maintain, repair, and overhaul it. That's why it's not working properly because it takes a long time, lacks technology, and lacks manpower to go into a maintenance shop to repair naval warships or submarines in the United States.

On the other hand, in the case of China, it has the world's No. 1 ship manufacturing capacity. Based on that manufacturing capability, it's chasing the United States very fiercely in naval power. In this regard, the president-elect is sending a love call to Korea, which feels a sense of crisis and can be trusted, and Korea, which has the highest level of ship capability, maintenance, and maintenance. If you look at this, Trump clearly recognizes the U.S. strategic goal of checking China and has already decided to join the alliance for the national interest even before its launch. This is a proof of this, so if the U.S. and South Korea increase cooperation in sharing economic and strategic interests with each other in the future, the importance of South Korea and its interests will be preserved in the second Trump administration. I'm expecting it like this.

[Anchor]
While you were talking, you mentioned the word "checking China" several times. Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message to Trump. If you fight in the middle of the content, you'll get hurt. There's something like this, too. How did you see it?

[Minjeonghun]
Didn't the leaders of both countries already fight in the first Trump administration and bleed a lot? I've had that experience. It is true that through the First Trade War and the Customs War, the two countries engaged in quite a war of nerves and bled again. That's why China is now threatening not to do that. However, since the U.S. is still strong in the relationship between the U.S. and China, former President Trump will play the role of a striker again and President Xi Jinping will play the role of a defender, so how much President Xi will be able to prevent President Trump's attacks in this area is also a very interesting aspect.

[Anchor]
I mentioned that the presidential office is also preparing for an early meeting after the phone call between the two leaders yesterday, but is there a possibility that we will meet from the perspective of the president-elect?

[Minjeonghun]
I think I'll have to watch it. If you want to meet with the leaders and make a state visit or official diplomacy, you have to meet them after taking office. Before that, it is possible to push for a meeting when there is an opportunity for a multilateral meeting or other opportunities to visit the U.S. briefly. Since it is a very important event in diplomatic relations because it is to build trust relations in preparation for a meeting with the next power, I think it will be possible to coordinate this part. Anyway, will Trump be able to adjust the time because he has a lot of things to do and a lot of things domestically? I think we'll have to wait and see.

[Anchor]
I wonder if there will be any changes in North Korea-US relations. Will the top-down conversation resume again, how do you see it?

[Minjeonghun]
That's what I'm expecting. In the first Trump administration, the basis of North Korea policy was maximum pressure and involvement. So, in the early days of the first period of the administration, the war of nerves between North Korea and the United States was great, focusing on maximum pressure. But as we move into the second half, these historic moments have been created, where the leaders have encountered each other three times, refocusing on maximum engagement. Therefore, based on such experience, I believe that there is a high possibility that summit diplomacy will be revitalized again this time. Of course, the leaders need results to meet, so it remains to be seen how much progress can be made in denuclearizing North Korea.Ma thinks that there is a very high possibility that a friendly atmosphere will be formed by exchanging communication between the two leaders anyway.

[Anchor]
However, some point out that the situation in North Korea is very different from four years ago. In particular, there is an analysis that this would be quite a burden for Trump because Russia and North Korea are now in close contact.

[Minjeonghun]
It won't be too much of a burden for President-elect Trump. In any case, he shows off his personal friendship with Kim Jong-un and shows off that he is a leader capable of having diplomatic relations with dictators, so I don't think he'll feel much pressure to exchange things with him on a normal call or preparing for a meeting.In any case, there are two aspects of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The first is that since I have already met with Trump, there is no reason for Kim Jong-un to refuse when Trump sent a love call to meet him. In the international community, the incumbent president of the United States asked to meet with him has no reason to refuse much because it has such a symbolism that recognizes him as a reliable leader in the international community anyway.

The second is about North Korea's counting method. It is true that North Korea's calculation method has been higher since Hanoi in 2019. In other words, considering the advanced nuclear capabilities when denuclearizing, the standard that North Korea sets as a condition can be raised. But we have to look at the situation of the Russia-Ukraine war. What Trump emphasized during his re-election campaign was that he would end the war in a short period of time if he took office. Didn't you say you'd finish it in 24 hours? In any case, if the U.S. leader intervenes in the war with such a strong will, the war cannot be foreseen, but it is very likely that it will enter a lull and end soon.

If so, the calculation method between Russia and North Korea could be different. Russia is less effective in continuing to use North Korea as an ammunition depot or armory. If that happens, Russia, which has taken a breather, can focus more on restoring its international status in the international community. In other words, if Russia becomes less useful to North Korea, shouldn't North Korea also find another way out? Then improve relations with neighboring countries. Since there is room to improve relations with the United States, China, Japan, etc., then there is no reason to refuse when there is an opportunity to talk with the United States.

[Anchor]
Significant changes are expected in relations with North Korea, so what response should the South Korean government make to this?

[Minjeonghun]
I think it's time to re-establish the position and role our government should have in preparation for the possibility of the resumption of U.S.-North Korea summit diplomacy. So, will the disarmament negotiations, which some are concerned about, proceed? In other words, whether to give up North Korea's denuclearization and focus on reducing North Korea's nuclear capabilities, the South Korean government's firm stance on this and strongly assert it through consultation with the U.S. so that our position can be fulfilled. If South Korea and the U.S. play a role in meeting the leaders of the U.S. through communication with the U.S. about what role we will play in the process, I think we need to prepare systematically from now on because we can show that South Korea still functions as a leading player on the Korean Peninsula while making significant contributions.

[Anchor]
You said earlier that changes are expected in the Russia-Ukraine war. How about the Middle East? Netanyahu seemed to be very welcoming to Trump's return.

[Minjeonghun]
As for Harris and Trump, there is no difference in their total support for Israel. But if you go a little further, there's a difference in the perception and treatment of Palestinians in Gaza and Arabs in the Middle East. Candidate Harris emphasized that the human rights and lives of Palestinians in Gaza should be protected, but candidate Trump never said that. That's why Israel must have felt closer to Trump in that difference. Therefore, no matter who was elected in the current war, there would have been no significant change. Because Trump wanted to end the war quickly and Harris wanted to end the war quickly, so key is something that Netanyahu has. So since Netanyahu strongly wants Trump to end the war after the presidential election, wouldn't he give Trump a big gift as he moves out of the war after adjusting the level of power and changing the power in the Middle East that he can be satisfied with? Isn't that what Trump demanded? Please end the war before he launches in January. I expect that they will respond to that part to some extent.

[Anchor]
I see. That's all for today. I was with Min Jeong-hoon, a professor of American Studies at the National Diplomatic Institute. Thank you for talking with me today.