China's growth rate is forecast to fall 4.1% next year on Trump risk

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's tariff risk has led to a forecast that China's GDP growth rate will fall to 4.1% next year.

In its Asia-Pacific outlook report for the first quarter of 2025, international credit rating agency S&P Global forecast China's GDP growth forecast for 4.1% next year and 3.8% in 2026.

These are 0.2%p and 0.7%p lower than forecasts released in September before the U.S. presidential election, respectively.

S&P economists said, "The Chinese economy is expected to be hit by the increase in U.S. tariffs," adding, "As uncertainty grows, the impact on investment will appear even before actual tariffs are implemented."

Investment bank Barclays also predicted that China's GDP growth would fall by 0.8 to 1.0%p even if only half of Trump's 60% tariffs on Chinese goods became a reality.