Lee Jae-myung's first trial was sentenced to prison...Prospects for intensifying confrontation between ruling and opposition parties

■ Host: anchor Lee Jung-seop
■ Appearance: Cho Chung-rae, former vice president of Yeouido Institute, former head of the National Assembly Legislative Investigation Department Kim Man-heum

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Yesterday, representative Lee Jae-myung's violation of the election law was sentenced to one year in prison and two years of probation in the first trial. The higher-than-expected ruling is causing political repercussions. With this ruling, the confrontation between the ruling and opposition parties seems to be growing. After representative Lee Jae-myung's first trial ruling, we will point it out with the political circles and the two. Cho Chung-rae, former vice president of the Yeouido Institute, and Kim Man-heum, former head of the National Assembly's legislative investigation department. Please come in. Representative Lee Jae-myung's first trial ruling is believed to have been sentenced to a higher sentence than expected, so I would like to ask about this ruling. Do you live up to your expectations?

[Cho Cheong-rae]
I expected it to be like that. This is because there is a basic sentence for the publication of false information. The basic sentence is less than 10 months in prison and a fine of 2 million won to 8 million won, but there are aggravating factors depending on the criminal charges. The weighting factor is aggravated punishment when there are a large number of opponents or high transmission, and then when false facts become a very important judgment situation in candidate evaluation. However, Governor Lee Jae-myung's problematic remarks were made at the Gyeonggi-do National Assembly. I did this in a conversation with a young broadcaster.

And at that time, especially in the case of Baekhyun-dong, it was a matter that many people criticized and were interested in because of the suspicion of corruption. I predicted that the court would deal with this part heavily because the charges were avoided through the National Assembly.

[Anchor]
It was an opinion that the element of aggravated punishment was reflected. How did you like it?

[Kim Man-heum]
Since it is usually an election law, moreover, the Democratic Party of Korea issue was involved. Since it is related to the return of government subsidies, the possibility of a fine of more than 1 million won has been reviewed a lot, hasn't it? I decided that the key is whether you are guilty or not, but if you are guilty, it is difficult to come out below 1 million won. In the meantime, there was a lot of guilty atmosphere. As you know, even within the opposition party and the Democratic Party, the horse urged innocence, but there were quite a few parts that were perceived as guilty.

The logic of refutation was that they opposed live broadcasting immediately, but they talked about insults or human rights. Even so, if the allegations were already controversial and controversial as a judicial risk, if you were convinced of your innocence, you would have had a public relations effect through live broadcasting. Nevertheless, he opposed the live broadcast. Another thing is that more than 1 million people campaigned for not guilty pleas and held a group rally. It's probably because I was nervous about something. In general, if you were judging that you were innocent, you would not have acted to provoke the judiciary. So, didn't the opposition party feel guilty internally? However, I think it was this expression that I was convinced of innocence only on the outside.

[Anchor]
It seems that the Democratic Party is also embarrassed by the result of being fined but not. First of all, we had an emergency meeting today to discuss countermeasures, condemned the political prosecution, and issued a condemnation. In the end, the unexpected sentence is adding to the confusion inside, right?

[Kim Man-heum]
Maybe some might have expected it. It could have been very embarrassing because it wasn't a fine, but a probationary sentence came out now. Because if a fine is issued, there is a possibility that the amount will be reduced after the higher court. Since the probation has been issued like this, even if it goes beyond the stage, a fairly high fine will inevitably come out. I think I'm panicking because of this. Another thing is that even if you expected it, you have no choice but to feel the situation seriously after it exploded.

[Anchor]
First of all, Lee Jae-myung attended the 3rd government condemnation rally in Gwanghwamun. Let's take a look at what you said here on the screen. I've repeated that I don't die. It was about Lee Jae-myung and democracy, how can we see this? What do you mean by that?

[Cho Cheong-rae]
You must be desperate. However, if you look at the Democratic Party's response after the court ruling yesterday, you can see that it is embarrassing. But this was the case during the trial, and it is the case from yesterday to today. Among the things in the court's ruling, the judiciary ruled in favor of some political prosecution, not considering legal principles or advantages and disadvantages, and it continues to go this way even after the administration. It's going to be a political struggle. It also shows that you don't intend to contest the allegations. That's why I won't die. That's what I'm talking about. Then would you say you're going to die? I think they are more obsessed with political slogans. It seems that it will become more clingy to the rigid support layer. I'm a little worried.

[Anchor]
First of all, the Democratic Party continued to attack the power of the people. I think you can see Myung Tae-kyun's massive counterattack at a time when he was in a tight spot or suspected involvement. The Democratic Party of Korea's outdoor rally said it was the worst reason for the sentencing, but in the end, what kind of opportunity did this ruling serve as for the power of the people?

[Cho Cheong-rae]
It doesn't mean that there's no reflective benefit. It is true that there is a reflective benefit because the ruling of all representative Lee Jae-myung is absorbing all the issues in the political arena. Actually, this is what we need to look at a little bit. Until recently, the power of the people has gone through a very difficult process. Among them, the public was particularly concerned about the divisive factors within the party and the relationship between the president's office and the party.

Not long ago, after the president made a public statement and a press conference, he immediately accepted most of the issues demanded by the party, apologized to the public, announced the suspension of Kim Gun-hee's official schedule, and even announced the renewal of personnel. In that situation, as I said a while ago, the Democratic Party of Korea took the issue of trial as a matter of political dispute, a matter of battle, continued to press, hold outdoor rallies, and then coordinate with the judiciary, the prosecution, and the government. The two parties are now showing quite contrasting moves in a short week or two.

Because of this problem, public opinion is deteriorating considerably for the Democratic Party, and conversely, members of the People's Power are moving to a form of unity while accumulating reasons not to be swayed by Democratic demands. Because of this situation, it cannot be said that the power of the people has caught the card of reversal simply because of the results of Lee Jae-myung's trial. I think it would be right to see if the president's public conversation in advance caught the momentum of a rebound, as well as his approval rating.

[Anchor]
In any case, you mentioned some of the groundwork for the opportunity to counterattack in the power of the people, but for the Democratic Party, there is also a part that the power of some outdoor rallies may be weakened. How should I respond in the future?

[Kim Man-heum]
First of all, I don't think we can see that the power of the people has taken the opportunity to turn around. As Vice Chairman Cho said a while ago, Lee Jae-myung, the main focus of the Democratic Party, was guilty of one thing in the first trial, and he was sentenced to probation, so the power will be low and the reflection profit will be relatively small, and the opinion polls will probably go up a little, but the objective situation is that the power of the people has not been better recently. As you know, isn't the problem related to pollack bacteria going toward worsening rather than being sorted out? And the unity within the party was that there should be no self-destruction around the time of the sentencing, and President Yoon Suk Yeol's press conference to apologize to the public was not cool, but I don't think the people's power is that good because he had a posture to seal it internally.

Regarding the power of the Democratic Party's outdoor rally, which you asked a little while ago, it would be a little bit like that. He said he wouldn't die today, but he will try not to drop the power centered on Lee Jae-myung, who was in the past, but I think the power will decrease a little. Above all, former President Park Geun Hye talked about the impeachment process in 2016 and 17 years, but the difference between the biggest recent public rally and candlelight vigils at night is. At that time, if it was to raise national resistance and problems, regardless of political factions, the outdoor rallies became true and fragmented during the so-called homeland crisis in 2019. Recently, even if there is a considerable consensus on the issue related to the resignation of President Yoon Suk Yeol and the independent counsel for First Lady Kim Gun-hee, it has become as the camp claims, so it is losing strength. If the opposition party's judicial risk centered on the issue of Representative Lee Jae-myung is organized in a certain way, the government's problem can be raised as a problem. In this regard, the first trial ruling on representative Lee Jae-myung of the recent judicial issue is not only good for the power of the people, but it is also two-sided. Now that the symbiotic structure is broken, what we endured while breaking down, if this continues, President Yoon Suk Yeol and the surrounding issues could lead to a situation in which the people directly leave the political faction and raise the issue, I think so.

[Anchor]
We've talked about the impact of this ruling on the People's Power Party. Then, let's get in a little bit personally, and what do you think about stabilizing the leadership of the party as representative Han Dong-hoon?

[Cho Cheong-rae]
I guess so. Isn't the issue of the Special Prosecutor Act approved at the general meeting of the lawmakers? Oh, the special inspector. Didn't you end up with it? This is simply diluting the Democratic Party's attack on the special prosecution law, but rather, it is futuristic to create an institutional foundation to prevent corruption and various problems of senior officials in the presidential office, but isn't it better than not doing it anyway?

It's something you have to do. It's something the Moon Jae In government hasn't done in five years. It has that effect, and as I said earlier, the issue of the special inspector system as party theory is pro-Yoon within the party. We are close. There was a controversy like this. After the president said he would accept this part in a surprise move through a public conversation, the division within the party became an opportunity for unity, harmony, and issue. The party and the president's office also released the results of narrowing their differences in that area. This also has the effect of reassuring those who were concerned about the division of conservatism.

This will naturally lead to the stabilization of CEO Han Dong-hoon's leadership. In my view, through this process, representative Han Dong-hoon was able to conduct political learning in a dense manner. It's going to be an experience value, so I look at it like this.

[Kim Man-heum]
The premise of the special inspector was that President Yoon Suk Yeol talked about this and that at an apology press conference last time, but there is something vague. However, he said that concrete action alternatives should come out at a level that meets the public sentiment. So, on the premise of that, it is a special inspector system to deal with future problems in the future. So, it will be a variable whether concrete practice can be achieved at a level that meets the public sentiment that was really mentioned as an order for the front part.

It is said that the ruling party has reached an agreement on the special inspector, which is supposed to be recommended by the National Assembly. National Assembly recommendations will be specifically recommended by political parties, but with the Democratic Party overwhelmingly in the majority, which three people will be recommended. It seems that this process will not be smooth because it is the appointment of one person from the president.

[Anchor]
We've looked at the aftermath a little more. Now, let's talk about the contents of the ruling. First of all, the issue is related to the relationship with Kim Moon-ki and the change of use of Baekhyun-dong. First of all, the guilt was divided as to whether you knew Kim Moon-ki. He was acquitted of claiming that he did not know. What do you think of this part?

[Cho Cheong-rae]
I didn't know it when I was the mayor, but didn't the court see it as an area of recognition? I think the ruling was made for the purpose of innocence because it was not a matter that could dispute the facts that could be viewed as objective situations or objective circumstances. However, for example, when you go on an overseas business trip to Australia, it is not a judgment on specific circumstances, specific schedules, and factors that cause you, but simply did you know or did you not know? Even if he went back and forth in front of me, I might not have known. I think I cleared him lightly on that point.

[Kim Man-heum]
On the screen right now, it looks like it's innocent because of subjective perception. Looking at the ruling, the key is whether it is a false disclosure or a job, a family relationship, a career, or an act, but the prosecution is now saying it is related to an act. This means that he didn't know the action in advance to reject Baekhyun-dong's preferential treatment, but in the ruling, it was recognized as having done something about each other's perception, so it was limited to a problem of perception, and this was not subject to the publication of false information. Not knowing is not a crime in itself. I don't think that's what I'm saying.

But even if you didn't know, I don't know exactly what the relationship means, but there was a relationship between the market and the staff, there was an exchange. I think that's what they're saying. Rather, if that was recognized in the first trial. Later, regarding Baekhyun-dong's corruption, I think it will be a disadvantageous factor for Lee Jae-myung's side. Because even if we didn't know in this judgment, we recognized that each other's communication has occurred, and we saw that CEO Lee Jae-myung also said that several times, including the word subordinate. So, if there is a discussion on preferential corruption afterwards, there is a possibility that representative Lee Jae-myung may go to the argument that he had a certain role, so on the one hand, it can be said that it is fortunate that it did not apply this time, but on the other hand, I think it includes such things as acknowledging it.

[Anchor]
The trials surrounding representative Lee Jae-myung are so organically connected that you pointed out the contents of that part. However, CEO Lee Jae-myung, first of all, claimed that the photo taken with the late Kim Moon-ki at the golf course was fabricated. Let's listen to what it's about first. In the end, the issue here was whether you knew Kim Moon-ki or not, but I thought that the claim was a claim that he did not play golf, noting the remarks of Lee Jae-myung, who claimed that the court manipulated the photo. I saw this part as guilty, how do you see it?

[Cho Cheong-rae]
You have to look at the context of the remarks at that time accurately. We have to look at where he said it. Is it December 2021? I did it in a program called Lee Jae-myung's Proposal Conversation with Young People. So it was an event where you could unravel your logic to control the situation. It wasn't some kind of debate, so it was a space where we could make up our minds and talk. Next, I talked about it in a very radioactive program. That's what I'm saying.

If you look at what representative Lee Jae-myung said at the time in the context, he took pictures of four people from the power of the people and released them as if I had played golf, and this is what it looks like. I'm saying that's a fabrication. The point is that I manipulated it as if I played golf. The Democratic Party of Korea talked about photo manipulation over this, but the court said that it made a wrong judgment as to why it was connected to playing golf, but isn't this something that Samcheok boy knows? Because I talked about this on a broadcast that the whole nation is watching, the intention to affect the public sentiment of the presidential election was clear. It did not passively and immediately protrude into the debate process. At that time, the program was a style that he led while talking to young people. I think it was very, very accurate for the court to see it like this.

[Anchor]
You pointed out the context, transmissibility, and impact. How did you like it?

[Kim Man-heum]
Rep. Park Geun-taek pointed out the problem with this. I just raised the issue of photo manipulation with this, not that there was a focus on not playing golf. The verdict seems to have noted two words that were manipulated as if they were playing golf. In addition, controversy continued over whether or not he played golf, not once, and it seems that he even intentionally avoided golf. Moreover, there were only three people who played golf, Yoo Dong-gyu, Kim Moon-ki, and Jang, so it is a very clear situation, but didn't you try to avoid this? Compared to what I said earlier that I just didn't know, this seems to have been very deliberately disadvantageous because it includes the fact that I played golf.

[Anchor]
Let's also point out another issue in this election law violation trial. It is related to the change of use of Baekhyun-dong, and Lee Jae-myung, the representative of the National Assembly, claimed that it was inevitable due to the threat of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport during the parliamentary audit of Gyeonggi-do Province. Let's take a look at the screen at that time. [Anchor] In the end, the court didn't acknowledge this. There was no demand or threat from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. What kind of impact can Baekhyun-dong's related part had until the sentence came out of the trial?

[Cho Cheong-rae]
I think it's much bigger than controversy over manipulating golf photos. This is because I was talking about Baekhyun-dong at a time when the suspicion of corruption in development and the relevance of Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung at the time were suspected by the public and the media. I have never been involved in corruption allegations. I was talking about this. I did that in front of the broadcast at the National Assembly. This is because the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport sent an official letter several times, and if you look at the context of the official letter, it is already disclosed to the media. Seongnam City is supposed to deal with the enemy.

It means Seongnam City should take care of it. Then, during the prosecution investigation phase, officials from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and Seongnam City said that there was no threat from the officials who assisted Seongnam Mayor at the time when about 21 people were called for investigation. If those who are assisted testify like that, doesn't this show that Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party, is speculating? And what's coming out now is the Democratic Party of Korea saying, "What immunity do you have for false statements?" I should also mention this, but there is a Supreme Court precedent in 2007. Although lawmakers are now guaranteed immunity under the Constitution, there is a precedent that immunity may be limited if they damage the reputation of others by stating that they are clearly false. Doesn't it make sense that the head of the audited agency is talking about immunity at a time when lawmakers' immunity is also restricted? The more you react like this, the more uncomfortable the Democratic Party becomes. I'm getting more and more cornered. I'm telling you this.

[Anchor]
The Democratic Party is also refuting this, right?

[Kim Man-heum]
There are about four issues related to Baekhyun-dong and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport if this issue is subdivided, and this seems to be the most important part. Rep. Park Kyun-taek protested something yesterday and argued against it, but I don't know if it's because he only looked at the level of the press release when talking yesterday, but he doesn't seem to be criticizing the ruling itself properly. Maybe legal judgment and refutation will come out again. I don't think what I did yesterday was that faithful. In a broad sense, we are looking at the violation of the election law from two aspects, and one is that we did not know about it and the pressure from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. The first point is actually the same.


The fact that you didn't know was raised as to whether it was related to the corruption or preferential treatment of Baekhyun-dong, and so was the issue related to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. So in the end, it will be a problem of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport directly related to the Baekhyun-dong problem. When I talk about this, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is saying that if there is an official letter like this or that, I have to feel it under pressure even if it's not direct pressure, but I don't think that's enough. On the contrary, other public officials around me said they didn't feel such pressure, so it was impeached.

Another thing that the Democratic Party of Korea failed to come up with is that even if the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said it felt pressure, they would have pressured it to the point where it should be raised. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said no because it is not subject to the Innovative City Act, but if you felt some pressure, you might have felt it to some extent, but would there have been such pressure to move from green space to semi-residential? I don't think this part is taking into account that there is a logical loophole.

[Anchor]
Once the ruling of the first trial is confirmed later, the Democratic Party of Korea must return the compensation of 43.4 billion won in election compensation. Of course, representative Lee Jae-myung is deprived of his right to run for election, but how should he respond to this in the future? Regarding the election reserve fund.

[Kim Man-heum]
When it comes to election compensation, the only way for the Democratic Party to win the trial is to win. Is there any other way? I'm also worried about whether I should do it in a different way in an expedient way, so I'm also talking about how to seize it in the case. Rather than that, it would be better to quickly judge whether it is guilty or not by conducting a trial on the Public Official Election Act. As you know, the judgment in question, including lawmaker Yoon Mi-hyang, has recently come out even after the term is over. This does not fit at the level of public officials in the country as well as specific people.

For your information, let me tell you. When we impeach, the impeachment is decided by the National Assembly and the final judicial decision is made by the Constitutional Court, isn't it? However, even if the impeachment is prosecuted, the duties will be suspended until the final constitutional decision. Other politicians are not even parliamentarians, but rather simple until the end, even if they are judged in the first trial. For me, it is natural to judge within 6, 3, and 3 within the period as stipulated by the law, and even if the period ends, additional measures to control this later. For example, if lawmakers are judged to be illegal long after their term in office, I think additional supplementary measures such as retroactive tax payment are needed.

[Anchor]
Anyway, CEO Lee Jae-myung expressed his intention to appeal immediately. The power of the people is now asking for an early judgment. However, some predict that the third trial ruling will be completed before the presidential election, so what do you think about the prospects that can lead it to after the presidential election?

[Cho Cheong-rae]
There are so many delays in the trial under the former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Kim Myung-soo. Initially, Yeouido predicts that the Democratic Party will lead to the presidential election through a strategy to delay the trial. However, although it has taken 22 months to spread false information, the charges themselves are not that complicated. Since we covered everything in the first trial, it doesn't seem to take much time to go to the second and third trials. The first trial will be sentenced on November 25, and the key party involved in the perjury teacher has consistently admitted the charges. That's not complicated either.

So, I think the two criminal charges will come out in the second and third trials next year after the first trial is sentenced in November. However, the issue of illegal donations from Seongnam FC after Daejang-dong, Wirye New Town, and Baekhyun-dong is a combined hearing, so it cannot be completed until the presidential election unless the trial is separated. This is unlikely to end until the presidential election because there are many issues and witnesses are mobilized and posted. The double bubble remittance to North Korea has not even started yet. We're preparing for the trial. So it's true that other trials can be dragged until the presidential election. However, since the charges of spreading false information and perjury teachers are so serious, the results of the trial came out quickly and even if it does not go to the third trial, it is already having a negative impact. So you don't even have to go that far to dictate the political affairs of Chairman Lee Jae-myung. I look at it like this.

[Anchor]
First of all, he even pointed out the prospect that the election law will be processed as soon as possible. Due to the time constraints, I think we need to wrap it up here. Since we talked a lot. So far, I have been with Cho Chung-rae, former head of the Yeouido Institute, and Kim Man-heum, former head of the National Assembly Legislation Office. Thank you for talking today.