Kim Jong-un said, "Go as far as you can with the United States..."The hostile policy will not change."

■ Host: Anchor Yoon Jae-hee
■ Starring: Former Vice Unification Minister Kim Hyung-seok

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN24] when quoting.

[Anchor]
This is a Korean Peninsula review time to analyze North Korea and diplomatic and security issues on the Korean Peninsula in depth. I will be with former Vice Unification Minister Kim Hyung-seok. Welcome. Chairman Kim Jong-un issued a message to the U.S. yesterday. I went as far as I could go with the U.S., but I said that the U.S. hostile policy toward North Korea does not change. Should it be seen as emphasizing the logic of not being able to have a nucleus after all?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
First of all, I think we should look at it like that. Because from North Korea's point of view, the only card in a kind of confrontation with the international community is the nuclear issue. If you say you will put down this nuclear issue first, you will not be able to talk to the international community. And basically, North Korea has already said that strengthening its nuclear armament is an unchangeable policy since 2019, so it is very likely that it will continue to maintain this position and try to establish some relationship with the United States according to future changes in the situation.

[Anchor]
President-elect Trump has emphasized a bromance with Chairman Kim Jong-un even during his campaign, but can I say that Chairman Kim Jong-un drew the line in negotiations or summits with the United States?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
I don't think so. I think it's already started. So when you look at negotiations, the most important thing is to raise your level of vision in negotiations. Then, the first thing the international community should emphasize on this part is North Korea's nuclear issue, but if you start opening up a retreat like this as if it's going to be something, you'll start from there, so it's disadvantageous in terms of negotiations. So, I think I'm taking the lead in this regard because it's only advantageous for negotiations if I start like this, whether it's firm or not.

[Anchor]
If you look at the past behavior, North Korea has stuck to the way it talks after raising the crisis a lot, so do you think you will repeat this series of processes before meeting with former President Trump? [Kim Hyung-seok] Looking at the behavior of North Korea in the past and the treatment of the international community, we went to dialogue after the crisis. What this is usually about is that the North Korean problem is very serious in our view, but the North Korean problem may not be that serious in the international community. Then, from North Korea's point of view, we basically have to draw attention, and we have to encourage a crisis in order to become a priority for the other party. Only then will a negotiation table be held. So in that sense, I've been doing that in the past. In fact, what Trump did in the first period was that he made strong remarks in 2017 about anger and flames, but the Trump administration in the U.S. did not take the North Korean issue so seriously.

But after the nuclear test and the ICBM, the critical thing is that now it's changed to X.Ma said then-President Trump tweeted, "From now on, we're going to deal with North Korea," and then we went to the North American dialogue. So if North Korea wants to attract the U.S., it must first stoke a crisis. If you say it's too comfortable without a crisis, the U.S. has the war in Ukraine, the war in China, and then the economic problem with China, and of course, the priority of the U.S. has to drop.

[Anchor]
According to the NIS' recent announcement, it was confirmed that North Korea not only sent soldiers to Russia, but also exported 240mm multiple rocket launchers and long-range artillery. It is true that there is a concern that North Korea's support will continue to increase if this continues because the current situation is increasing the possibility of a war against Ukraine.

[Kim Hyung-seok]
It's going to increase. So for North Korea, the Ukraine war is a kind of special. So, from the perspective of North Korea's export right now, the main field was the arms export sector. But didn't you fail to do that due to international sanctions on North Korea? So I did it voice-only. Then, first of all, there are military supplies that have been in stock, and then there are military factories. Then the war in Ukraine continues? And you need this kind of munitions? Then North Korea will continue to provide.

[Anchor]
Anyway, wouldn't it cost a lot of money for North Korea to do something like this? So I looked at where the funds came from, and there was a lot of money stolen. It was revealed for the first time that Korea's cryptocurrency exchange Upbit was hacked five years ago, and it is understood that the Reconnaissance General Bureau is behind it. What kind of place is it?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
The Reconnaissance General Bureau literally sends spies and then collects intelligence, but basically, the pattern of war is now in the Ukraine war, and there's also a conventional war.Don't you do a lot of cyberattacks? So we train a lot of fighters in cyber, the Reconnaissance General Bureau. So there are many cases where the warriors go into the so-called hacking, the so-called cyber world that you just talked about, and illegally steal it. So the Reconnaissance General Bureau is basically a special North Korean organization that collects information and does something that puts the other person in danger in an irregular way that threatens them.

[Anchor]
I think the biggest reason for hacking into virtual currency exchanges is that the money line has dried up due to sanctions against North Korea, but should we actually consider the current economic situation in North Korea to be serious?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
North Korea is basically not transparent. So I don't know. For example, the international community's sanctions on North Korea began in earnest in 2016. So, in general, North Korea's exports were controlled in large areas. At that time, trade between North Korea and China was about $7 billion. However, as of the end of 2022, after full-fledged sanctions, the annual trade between North Korea and China is less than $700 million. So it's decreased by one-tenth. It's not the entire North Korean economy, but you can see one such trend, trend, and the other is that the exchange rate was usually about 8,000 won, but now it's about 18,000 won. Then, the exchange rate itself leads to a shortage of supplies, which can be symbolized in that way, so in that sense, the North Korean economy has shrunk to about a tenth in a very extreme way. But now we're going up a little bit because of the speciality of the war in Ukraine.

[Anchor]
The dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia is also linked to the economic aspect, right?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
That's right. So according to what's known now, isn't it about 2,000 dollars a month? Then, 10,000 troops were dispatched. Then it's 220 million dollars a year. So it's not a small amount of money.

[Anchor]
Choi Sun-hee, the foreign ministry, recently visited Russia. It was unusually long. I visited for 10 days and met with President Putin, and the possibility of Chairman Kim Jong-un visiting Russia continues to emerge as the National Intelligence Service said there must have been an important conversation on the spot. What do you expect?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
I think it's possible. So didn't Kim Jong-un go to Vladivostok and then space facilities? And what was unusual was that Foreign Minister Choi Sun-hee went to a place to celebrate the place when Kim Jong-il visited Russia. Then I think it's possible for Kim Jong-un to go all the way to Moscow in a symbolic dimension.

[Anchor]
Then, when can we expect the timing? Some say that Trump may visit before the inauguration ceremony.

[Kim Hyung-seok]
The best thing might be before you visit, but for example, your inauguration is on January 20th, and not everything is decided the day after the end of January 20th. So it doesn't have to be done within January 20th, and it's a time when you can use Russia's alliance with Putin to the United States. So in a way, the first variable is what happens to the war in Ukraine. For example, wouldn't it be different if it continued to spread or stop? So if you look at the situation of the war in Ukraine and if you have the conditions for dialogue with the United States, for example, if the war in Ukraine continues, it's difficult for North Korea to talk with the United States. So first of all, as we go toward the end of the war in Ukraine, and then to show off our relationship with Russia, Kim Jong-un can go to Russia.

[Anchor]
Shin Won-sik, head of the National Security Office, said, "We provided air defense equipment and anti-aircraft missiles for Russia's supply to North Korea." In fact, North Korea's air defense network has been known to be weak, so will this change the situation, how do you see it?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
First of all, this is our wishful thinking. North Korea is superior to us in terms of military power, so we need to prevent it from continuing to follow it. Even if it's blocked, there's a limit. In the end, it's a matter of time, so we have to strengthen our defense capabilities on the premise that North Korea continues to follow. However, in the case of air defense this time, rather than strengthening North Korea's basic defense capabilities, drones were released in early October, and North Korea announced its own investigation results and claims that the South Korean military did it. So this drone infiltrated Kim Jong-un's office, that area. Then, this is the most urgent part because North Korea has shown that the safety of the highest dignity is the most vulnerable. So, first of all, it is a result of urgently requesting a kind of SOS from the Russian side for this part. And then what we think is important is that there's another problem, isn't there? We should make various efforts to the Russian side as we look closely at hypersonic ICBMs, various tactical nuclear weapons development issues, and nuclear-powered submarines.

[Anchor]
Let me ask you one more question. As North Korea blew up the inter-Korean road, the South Korean government said it is considering getting it in the form of a loan. Also, it has been confirmed that North Korea is using the Kaesong Industrial Complex facilities without permission, so is there any way to sanction this part?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
It's really hard. So if it's 1:1 match, the other person can do it himself, but there isn't, right? So in this case, we have no choice but to do it through a third country. However, it is difficult for a third country to refuse access to it from North Korea or to acknowledge the decision of the third country itself. So that doesn't mean we'll just leave this part alone, but we gave it in the form of a loan, so we have to constantly emphasize legal responsibility. And I can't imagine it right now.Ma, when inter-Korean relations change, this becomes a kind of bond at that time. So based on this, we can remind each other and use it on other levels, so I think we should talk about what we're going to talk about based on principles.

[Anchor]
I see. The Korean Peninsula review, North Korea and security issues were examined in detail. I was with former Vice Unification Minister Kim Hyung-seok. Thank you.