[Start Economy] The rush to and from work is just around the corner?Seoul Subway Strikes Following Railway Union's TAEYU

■ Host: Anchor Lee Jung-seop, Anchor Cho Ye-jin
■ Starring: Professor Heo Jun-young of Sogang University's Department of Economics

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News START] when quoting.

[Anchor]
We give you the latest economic news quickly and kindly. Start Economy, today with Professor Heo Joon-young of Sogang University's Department of Economics. Please come in. I'll talk about the railroad union, but the job market continues today following yesterday. It seems that the operation will be delayed in some sections during rush hour, but what are some issues that cannot narrow the difference between the management and the union?

[Heo Joon-young]
First of all, there is a part that asks you to switch to two shifts in four groups. Next, there are nine newly opened routes this year, including the West Sea Line. Shouldn't we need more manpower? So, the part where we ask for more manpower. Then the government recommended a 2.5% increase in the basic salary, and asked them to take the increase plan accordingly. Then, the promotion system is fair. Next, please stop the workforce reduction. There's a story like this.

[Anchor]
In addition, the Seoul Transportation Corporation's union, which operates Seoul Subway Line 1 to Line 8, also approved the strike with a 71 percent approval rating. You're going to reveal specific plans for a general strike this morning?

[Heo Joon-young]
is correct. If you say Seoul Transportation Corporation, you may be confused. In the front, the railway union is in charge of part of Line 1, part of Line 3, and Line 4, and the rest of the sections, and the Seoul Transportation Corporation is in charge of traveling to downtown Seoul from Line 1 to Line 8. Here, too, we are trying to reduce the amount of wage increases and manpower, but the company is asking us to increase the manpower on this, and it seems that there is a little conflict with each other.

As you said, the strike is likely to proceed with the approval of the 71% union, but there was a strike last year and the rest of the year. The strike lasted one day in the case of the year before last, and two days in the case of the year before last. So, in that sense, even if there is a strike in the future, the duration will not be long, but the key is how quickly the two sides can narrow their differences.

[Anchor]
Following Korail, the Seoul Transportation Corporation has a number of issues anyway. First of all, I understand that the Seoul Transportation Corporation has three unions, but the part that just passed is 1 union, and the 2nd and 3rd unions are also taking procedures for industrial action?

[Heo Joon-young]
Yes, there are three unions. The number of members of the first union is 6%, which is the largest at 60%, and there are even three unions with two unions and a relatively large number of young people, but the strike is now approved by the first union. Usually, when we proceed with industrial action, we first coordinate with the Dispute Mediation Committee, but if it doesn't work, we vote for or against the strike, but now the first union is 70% in favor, and the second and third unions are taking similar steps. In the case of Seoul Transportation Corporation, we need to look at the average number of people per station is not only in Seoul, right?

There are subways in the provinces, so if you compare it like this, the average number of people per station or the number of people per 1km of the route is a little higher than other places. If you look at it like that, you might think that the number of people is already large. What you need to see is that Seoul has been built for a long time and there are a lot more people per station compared to the provinces, so it seems true that more people are needed. In that respect, the key is how much compromise the two sides make.

[Anchor]
In the case of the National Railroad Union, even the Seoul Transportation Corporation's union is expected to engage in industrial action, increasing traffic inconvenience for citizens. What do you think the possibility of a negotiation agreement will be?

[Heo Joon-young]
As I said earlier, if we negotiate, it will be settled quickly and the strike period is not usually long. As the anchor said, it's actually a citizen's initiative, so isn't there a lot of inconvenience when you go on strike? In that respect, an agreement will be reached, but what plans will come out and how they will be agreed through this time is actually related to the safety of citizens, so we will have something to watch.

[Anchor]
Just in time, the cold suddenly came yesterday and today, and I think there will be some concerns for citizens if they go on strike while commuting. I hope we can reach an agreement soon. The next news is about transportation, but can I see a foreign driver on the Seoul city bus?

[Heo Joon-young]
I think we should talk about our country's visa first. For parts of Korea's industry that are difficult to fill with domestic personnel, visas are issued for foreign personnel and permission to stay for three years. That's called an E-9 visa, and what the Seoul Metropolitan Government is doing is that I suggested it to the Cabinet Coordination Conference. Therefore, please include transportation, including village bus drivers, in the E-9 visa, and then increase the conditions of stay for the visa from 3 years to 5 years. These are the situations where I've suggested these things right now.

If you think of it as Seoul City, you'll remember talking about it a while ago. You may remember temporarily accepting 200 foreign domestic workers, but it's a part of those things. So, you can think of it as another program to receive overseas workers in areas where the supply and demand structure is no longer suitable for Korean workers or becomes too expensive for Korean workers.

[Anchor]
Can you point out the background of this plan in more detail?

[Heo Joon-young]
Then, first of all, we need to look at the treatment of the village bus drivers. There's a city bus and a town bus. About 60% of the wages are paid by village bus drivers and 60% of city bus drivers. If you look at their age structure as of now, they are very aging. Since there are many young people who have gained experience in village buses and move on to city buses or to other taxis or deliveries due to poor treatment of village buses, more than 65 years of age are now approaching 45% of village buses based on Seoul. So it's a very aging structure. Is there a foreign driver on the town bus now? I have it. And the proportion of foreign articles is less than 2%. In this way, working conditions are very poor and the wage structure is poor, and we've talked about this recently.

The village bus is stopped after Corona. So what the village bus is saying is that there are no people to drive the buses that are there, so the buses are not running right now. So in a way, people with weak transportation use it a lot, but we've said a lot about them that the convenience of moving is decreasing. As a result, let's bring in foreign workers at a low price and hire them as village bus drivers, and then let's conclude that the existing village bus side can operate. Finally, it is the profit structure of the village bus, and the deficit continues. So, from the perspective of the operating company, there is a continuous deficit by the number of operations, so anyway, it seems that the Seoul Metropolitan Government has come up with a way to solve these problems by using a little cheaper manpower and increasing the frequency of village buses.

[Anchor]
First of all, the Seoul Metropolitan Government is promoting it and pointed out the background, but the Ministry of Labor said it would carefully review the suitability. Then, from the professor's point of view, if these are foreigners, the traffic culture will be different, and there will be new things to study in Korea as well. Is it really inevitable or premature?

[Heo Joon-young]
I think we need to have a long plan. Rather than saying that every time this happens, foreign workers, we are different, but in the case of fisheries and agriculture, there are many people who have entered Korea on E-9 visas for less than three years and leave in the middle. In the case of Korea, in a way, there may be structures, linguistic barriers, etc. that are difficult for foreign workers to adapt. Then, rather than asking for a temporary problem, how can we create an environment in which they can come in and work for a little longer to settle these structures? And another important part to think about is what the treatment of those who are currently working in the village bus industry among Koreans is like. If cheap foreign workers come in, there is a possibility that the treatment of Korean people who already existed will deteriorate a little. Then I hope that the system will be implemented in a situation where there is a bigger plan for what to do about those things.

[Anchor]
A thorough review is needed to prevent confusion in the system. Let's talk about yesterday's stock market. Samsung Electronics laughed after a long time. The stock market also laughed together, so please point out the background.

[Heo Joon-young]
A share purchase program worth 10 trillion won came out, which eventually pushed Samsung Electronics' stock price back. In the end, since we talked about 40,000 units and 40,000 electronic units entered a few days ago, I think we've moved anyway. If a company purchases treasury stocks, distribution stocks in the market decrease that much, so it is the law of economics that prices rise when supply decreases. That's how the stock price goes up. There seems to be a rebound in the short term. In fact, in 2014, just 10 years ago, Samsung Electronics' stock price fell 15.5% for three months, recording a new low for 52 consecutive weeks. Even at this time, I have an experience that I actually achieved a little rebound in stock prices through treasury stock purchases.

[Anchor]
We expressed that Samsung Electronics laughed for the first time in a long time, but those who are bitten at the high point on the 70th and 80th floors cannot laugh. You have to come up to there, but I think I've checked that the 50,000 won level is the support level, and it's a part where you can't defend yourself until the end only by buying and burning treasury stocks. After all, a company is a part where you have to show your performance or products in order to receive investment.

[Heo Joon-young]
I think he's feverish, but he seems to be urgently putting in fever reducer. In the end, after the fever drops a little, you need to closely observe it and examine it to find a way to lower the fever in the end. If you think about what such a method is, you have no choice but to see it as Samsung Electronics' performance. There are many doubts that the market has. There are areas where the business situation in the memory sector is getting a little worse. In terms of AI semiconductors, there are parts that Samsung Electronics has not been able to solve well. On the other hand, there is a scary part of Chinese companies that are now rising in the memory market. What kind of vision does Samsung show for these things because there are parts of the foundry that Samsung is not doing well? However, what SK Chairman Chey Tae-won recently said is very worth listening to. Chairman Chey Tae-won once said at a conference that Samsung is a very powerful company, so if it catches up, it will be able to catch up very quickly, and that he believes in Samsung's potential. I actually have a similar idea. Samsung is temporarily dangerous and difficult right now, but in the end, I think what has overcome these well is the power of Samsung Electronics. In that respect, we need to look at it a little more in the mid to long term, but there are a lot of bad news in the short term.

[Anchor]
In addition to short-term prescriptions, some analysts say that we need to build up our stock market's physical strength and ultimately physical strength. Immediately after Trump was elected in the U.S. presidential election, the New York Stock Exchange was booming, but our stock market was in a slump. The financial authorities are saying that the stock market fall is excessive, right?

[Heo Joon-young]
It seems that the financial authorities have become more active recently. Because anyway, as the anchor said, after Trump's election, the exchange rate soared in various ways, and then the stock market continued to remain sluggish. In addition to the sluggishness, we are losing a lot about the Taiwan index, and when the Japanese index goes up, we are losing a lot, so we continue to hold ministerial meetings and head meetings of related ministries. There was a part of it yesterday as well. As part of that, we made a fund by paying about 100 billion won from securities-related institutions and about 100 billion won from the private sector. There is a Korean Value Index Fund, and I will try to boost the stock market again through this fund. So recently, an ETF called the Value Up Index Exchange Traded Fund came out. And there are companies that are willing to disclose value-ups. There are also plans to create a warm atmosphere in the stock market by investing in these companies.

[Anchor]
So will value-up funds have an impact?

[Heo Joon-young]
The scale itself is not that big. We have a limited stock market fund. The capital increase fund is about 10 trillion won. However, the value-up fund that has just come out is about 200 billion won. It is said that an additional 300 billion won can be added, so the scale itself is about 500 billion won. It's not that big of a scale. On the contrary, the recent stock market rebound has been around yesterday, but there seems to be more speculation that Samsung Electronics, which accounts for the largest portion of our stock market, burns its own shares. If I tell you a little more, the basic structure of the Korean stock market should eventually improve. Recently, we have talked about revising the commercial law, tax benefits, and most of all, I think we need to show these moves in which the Korean capital market moves from a major shareholder-friendly market to a more transparent market.

[Anchor]
I see. Lastly, can you organize the situation on the New York Stock Exchange overnight?

[Heo Joon-young]
Dow fell a little, Nasdaq rose a little, and S&P rose a little, but there is no big news right now. Tesla has gone up a lot. There are rumors that Tesla's rise will lead to new permits for autonomous driving, but it seems that Elon Musk has recently become the head of the U.S. government's efficiency committee, and this is why Elon Musk himself is raising Tesla's stock price.

[Anchor]
We will keep an eye on Nvidia's performance announcement this week. So far, I was with Professor Heo Jun-young of Sogang University's Department of Economics. Thank you for talking today.