[Economy Pick] What's the Bank of Korea's outlook?This year and next year's 'Dark Cloud'

[Anchor]
Let's look at the second keyword.

[What is the Bank of Korea's outlook?]It's this year and next year's "Dark Cloud"]

The consumer outlook was also bad, so the Bank of Korea must be pessimistic, right?

[Reporter]
The Bank of Korea will announce its revised economic outlook on the 28th, the day after tomorrow.

It is to release growth forecasts for this year and next year.

It is expected to lower all the existing forecasts announced last August.

Then let's look at the forecast for August.

It was expected to grow 2.4% this year and 2.1% next year.

At that time, the growth rate this year was down 0.1%p.

The reason was that domestic demand was slow to recover despite strong exports.

But the situation is worse now than this time.

Domestic demand recovery is still slow, and exports are slowing unexpectedly.

You may remember the 0.1% growth shock in the third quarter.

The Bank of Korea forecast was 0.5%, so it fell short.

In particular, it was a disappointing report card considering the base effect as it grew negative in the second quarter.

When I analyzed why, the contribution to net export growth was greatly reduced to negative.

On top of that, the export outlook has been getting worse since the election of former U.S. President Trump.

It is inevitable to lower the growth rate this year and next year.

[Anchor]
Then how much do you think you'll get off?

[Reporter]
There are many expectations that this year's growth rate will fall from 2.4% to around 2.2%.

Lee Chang-yong, governor of the Bank of Korea, also mentioned this drop, citing sluggish growth in the third quarter, so listen for yourself.

[Lee Chang-yong / Governor of the Bank of Korea (audit on state affairs last month): Since it just dropped from 0.5 (expected) to 0.1 (actually) in the third quarter, I think it will fall by 2.3 or 2.2 in the annualized rate, depending on the fourth quarter.... ]

Actually, this year is already ending, so

What is more meaningful than this is the growth forecast for next year.

The pressing concern is how much it will fall from the previous forecast of 2.1%.

According to experts' coverage, most of them predicted that they would make a slight adjustment to 2.0%.

Of course, some experts predict the 1% range.

It is not easy to predict accurately because of the great economic uncertainty that Trump's re-election will bring.

As a result, how the Bank of Korea looks at the economy next year is expected to be the focus of the announcement the day after tomorrow.