Israel's 'limited ground war' begins...the height of the Middle East crisis

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor, Jung Ji-woong Anchor
■ Starring: Baek Seung-hoon, full-time researcher at the Middle East Research Institute of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Israeli forces have launched a limited ground war on Lebanon's southern border.

[Anchor]
It is the first time in 18 years that Israel has deployed ground forces since 2006.

Let's talk about the situation in the Middle East with Baek Seung-hoon, a full-time researcher at the Middle East Research Institute at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. Please come in.

[Anchor]
In the end, the ground war began, but now we are going to the road where the ground war is in full swing, can we see it like this?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
That's how you see it. Now, the massive airstrikes that Israel launched on September 21st, in a way, were all surprising because this was not just the 2006 war, but the most in military conflicts, including the civil war in Lebanon, which began in 1975, and then escalated from September 21st to 23rd, when more than 560 people died a day. And then on September 23rd, when Israel named it in earnest that we would do a military operation called the arrow to the north, it became blatant from then on. So two-track, one is the southern city of southern Lebanon with the so-called Marjawin, which is not only the southern city with the Hezbollah military facility, but also the Bekka Valley, which is the Syrian border. So you're attacking Hezbollah's military facilities in Lebanon's east, and you're attacking the core Hezbollah leadership in Damascus. But it was successful.

As we all know, not only the supreme leader of Nasrallah, Hezbollah, but also the military commander named Ali Karaki. As it is now reported, the top seven Hezbollah leaders have been killed, and the generals have successfully carried out a successful military operation, with 20 killed, and then they are now deploying 120 Mercaba tanks in northern Israel to send Israeli ground troops to the southern part of the country. However, I don't know if the improved version of the Mercava tank was used last year, but it is said to be the 5th generation tank. Considering that Black Table 2, which Korea boasts, is a 3.5th generation tram, then we are preparing with the best power. So entering the ground war is like counting down. But if I put it on for a while, there is no scenario where there was no Israeli army in the first place. Since the start of the war against Hamas, last year. If you're going to defeat Hamas, if you're going to destroy Hamas, you're going to have to do some stopping with the Hezbollah forces, which probably happens in the highest-level scenario.

[Anchor]
I think the word "ground operation" itself has a special meaning in 18 years. In a way, wouldn't it be like driving a tank into the other's camp?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
As the military operation erupted this time, two things came to mind, and one thing I thought was Hamas would be over. I don't know why you're suddenly saying Hezbollah, Hamas, but just a few weeks ago, we were pressuring Hamas on how to negotiate peace with Hamas, and now we're talking about Hezbollah negotiations, right? Then Hamas's survival was now the only way to survive by joining Hezbollah, but Israel has now drawn the line firmly. Now Israel is not thinking about the destruction of Hezbollah. Because I don't have the ability to do that now.

Because you can't think of a full-scale war with Lebanon in Beirut, because Hezbollah, Lebanon, is a normal country. And Hamas was not a normal state, and then Palestine was a state or not, which we've had a lot of debates about, but it's not yet officially recognized by the United Nations. So even at the UN Security Council, if Israel does not negotiate a ceasefire, we will make it a normal country, didn't we sign it like this? So if you look at that, as you said now, the first time in 18 years that we're sending ground troops to destroy southern Hezbollah is like this right now. Hamas will be truly destroyed now. Then, secondly, Israel will take this opportunity to conduct a military operation that significantly reduces the power of Hamas and Hezbollah, which it thought posed a security threat to Israel. I think it has those two meanings.

[Anchor]
If you look at the timetable, after the death of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, the ground war went in. So Nasrallah's absence could be a fatal blow to Hezbollah, is this calculation underlying it?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
They must have thought it was advantageous for negotiations. From Israel's point of view, they have already said that the goal of Operation Arrow to the North is that. We're not trying to take Lebanon, we're doing serious damage to Hezbollah's leadership. We can negotiate with Hezbollah in an advantageous way at the negotiating table when we go by destroying many of Hezbollah's military facilities. That's why we've revealed that we're doing this military operation. As you said, it can be seen that it is being realized right now.

[Anchor]
In a way, didn't you find and remove the hidden leader of Hezbollah? So, do you think Israel's intelligence and military power are already in control of Hezbollah to a considerable degree?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
Of course, I'm in control now. I want to tell you this story. Israel's intelligence power is great, watching the Pippi incident and Hezbollah's leadership explode six buildings and kill them all at once. In addition, there is a lot of gossip about Unit 8200, which is said to have been entered to detonate this pipi. I think the power of the Israeli intelligence department lies in its persistence and persistence, even though it also has this intelligence power. Because if you think it's a security threat, and if you think it's something that we have to track down to the end, you spend a really long time tracking it down and getting rid of them and getting rid of them again and again. It was also an operation that took about 15 years.

Because it's all been revealed now, but I opened a ghost company called BAC Consulting Company in Hungary, made it into a Hungarian company, and Pippi brings Taiwanese products, builds trust by doing business for a long time, more than 10 years, and then makes Hezbollah a trading partner based on it. In that sense, the intelligence power of Israel that you've just mentioned, but the greatness of Mossad is the persistence, persistence, and the ability to execute operations to succeed in their security even if they invest for a long time.

[Anchor]
Anyway, this time, the axis of resistance, Israel will not stand still. You've said that you won't hit the capital even though you're in a major air strike and you've even entered a ground war, so to what extent should you expand the ground war before stopping?

[Baek Seung-hoon]
We always talked about it. I saw the first Lebanon war in 1982 and then in 2006. Israel's goal then is the same. So, pushing Hezbollah's influence about 40 kilometers above Lebanon's southern border and at least 20 to 40 kilometers above it, preventing them from operating within Israel's borders. So there are so-called anti-Israel forces within Palestine, not only Hamas, but also Palestinian Islamic Jihad, various anti-Israel forces. Don't let those forces go dark and operate there. So the goal was to make it impossible to pose a security threat.

So this time, the Ritani River, so-called the Ritani River, is a long river that flows eastward and southward on the map of Lebanon. We will eliminate a significant amount of Hezbollah's influence in the south of the Ritani River. Now, Israel is not just going to get rid of it, but the goal is to make it worse. Only then can we reduce the security threat to Israel and prevent support for Hamas and anti-Israel organizations, so that's Israel's military goal now. So Israel is also called a limited war because we say that we will accomplish our goals in that limited area.

[Anchor]
On the axis of resistance, so in the case of Iran, what options does Iran have now?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
It's not a lot. So Iran also came out now and said that we would help Hezbollah and fight Israel by taking legal, international and diplomatic steps, right? That's what the Minister of Foreign Affairs said. We will continue to use the so-called guerrilla warfare, asymmetric strategies, special operatives, and Revolutionary Guards to help Hezbollah, to provide information and weapons. But as I said now, the impossible issue is that if Iran wants to send ground troops by land, it must come to Israel via Iraq and Syria. Then it's not an easy problem.

So you're transferring Iranian troops to an air force? It's a military operation that's not possible because Israel now controls all of Lebanon's aviation and is likely to be bombed and shot down. Then, the only cards that Iran can use are asymmetric power, special forces, drones, missiles, and terrorism using irregular military forces, so there are not many cards that can be used now. Even if the Houthis attack, the Houthis will eventually have no choice but to attack drones and missiles. So it's true that from Iran's point of view, they don't have the ability to attack Israel, and they don't have a lot of options.

[Anchor]
Iran is in a dilemma, and Hezbollah is under attack anyway, but I don't think I can see any countermeasures on my own. How do you see it?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
We're trying to respond now, but Israel has come in so hard, and the United States has come up with reinforcements anyway, hasn't it? So now we've sent three F-15 squadron, one F-15 squadron, one F-16 squadron, and a bombing squadron that we know very well, called Thunderbolt, that only bombed the ground. Then, as Secretary of Defense Austin said, there will be another month or so of the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier. That's why I have a great doctor of escalation. In the end, what Hezbollah can attack is an attack using various rockets or drones, and as I said, the U.S. and Israel are already at war with overwhelming aviation power, so of course, Hezbollah will attack if it is cornered, but as you said, there are not many ways to attack.

[Anchor]
Then, in the case of Hezbollah, we are in a tight spot, right?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
That's the situation right now. Because they are clearly in a situation where their territory and autonomy are violated, of course, it is a natural situation for them to attack, and they will worry about it after they attack. What's next? Then what should we do next? Because such plans are not yet visible, it can be seen that they are delaying military attacks now.

[Anchor]
It's hard to conclude, but if things go as they are now, will the Israeli goal of destroying Hamas and achieving that goal increase the likelihood?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
That's high. But to do that, Prime Minister Netanyahu will be pushing now. Because defeating Hezbollah is a goal that you can't take as loot. So when the war ended, so-called Netanyahu told his own people, "We've done these things, we've failed to secure them, but we've brought them with this kind of accomplishment," the defeat of Hezbollah is frankly not a possible goal right now. Then at least the Hamas force disappears, so there is no such terror in Gaza again. I wish I could take a picture of that affirmation. Just like President Obama assassinated bin Laden and said we cut this off of Al Qaeda. That requires a strong halt to Hezbollah at least now, so as I said before, Hamas will not be easy to survive in Gaza now, as I've seen the military operation unfold.

[Anchor]
Hasn't Netanyahu been cornered by the prolonged political war? However, if the operation in southern Lebanon succeeds this time and destroys Hamas, I think it can lead to a political turnaround in Korea.

[Baek Seung Hoon]
That's right. It's not easy for me to make random predictions, but maybe even if I go back, the Netanyahu administration will have to come down. Because there are a lot of situations. But why do you have to do these things successfully? Because it's important for future political activities. Will he be able to come back or should he resign and step down this time? It was a situation where I had to leave the political world forever, but as you said now, if I go back after destroying Hezbollah this time, I will have to come down immediately, but it is a big plus factor in my future political behavior.

[Anchor]
Do you think Israel is now in communication with the United States over the timing and scope of the ground war and the scale of the expansion in the future? How do you see it?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
It's like this in the United States. Seeing the attack on Hezbollah now, some experts say that the U.S. has lost all its power, the U.S. has lost its influence, and the U.S. has lost its power, but I don't think so. The United States is still a powerful act. But you just have to look at this. The United States always saw Hezbollah as its main enemy. Hezbollah is still a party that has entered the parliament, in a way. And before the 2022 general election, it was the ruling party, called Hezbollah. Nevertheless, the United States designated Hezbollah as a terrorist group and never released it. Because I also took into account terrorism against the United States. That's why the United States has largely tolerated Israel's attack on Hezbollah. Because it's in their national interest. I think it's similar this time.

So, when you attack Hezbollah, of course, Israel already knows that attacking Hezbollah is inevitable for the destruction of Hamas, and as I said before, you're an adversary of the United States, so you've always allowed a little bit of an attack on Hezbollah. But this is what the U.S. is most worried about right now. In the process of attacking Hezbollah, civilian damage in Lebanon increases too much, or because Israel violates many things like international law. And then there's room for further development, or something like that. Because in Lebanon, southern part of the Ritani River, where Israel is now willing to carry out military operations, all UN peacekeepers are out now.

The Korean military is also out as a peacekeeper. Finland, Spain, and the United States are all out. Of course, Israel says it won't cause damage to the war, but isn't war a lot of contingencies? Then, if the damage occurs again, the U.S. cannot protect and defend Israel as much as it does, so the U.S. is now condoning the attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon, but instead, it is looking at the so-called escalation and such a situation with great concern.

[Anchor]
In our understanding, the best scenario for the United States is that Israel now wants to sort out the southern part of Lebanon to some extent, weaken Hezbollah's power, but not go to all-out war?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
As you said, the United States would most like to weaken Hezbollah and make a peace agreement with Hezbollah. So you're most happy to have an armistice. Then, the destruction of Hamas, which Israel wanted, is also guaranteed. It would be the most satisfactory scenario for the U.S. if it were to make another peace agreement without international conflict while the influence of Hezbollah, the U.S. hostile force, was quite low.

[Anchor]
Finally, the fact that the U.S. is in a dilemma right now is that Israel is not being able to talk to the U.S., but as the presidential election is coming up, we have to be conscious of Jewish votes. I think the U.S. will also have a lot of worries.

[Baek Seung Hoon]
There are also Jewish votes, but there are also Arab migrant votes. You'll remember. In the early days of the presidential election and early in the campaign, Arab Americans got up and moved because they didn't do well on the Israeli issue, which is a little more complicated, but as you said, it's a very difficult situation for the United States to control this in the lame duck situation. But this time we've sent three battalions and extended the Abraham Lincoln nuclear carrier for another month, and the government in lame duck is trying to contain it as best it can. I think that's how it can be seen.

[Anchor]
I've summarized the situation in the Middle East.

Until now, Baek Seung-hoon was a full-time researcher at the Middle East Research Institute at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. Thank you.