"It's time to start national negotiations..." Trump's impeachment before the second term is "concerned" [Y transcript]

■ Host: anchor Lee Jung-seop, anchor Cho Ye-jin
■ Starring: Seo Eun-sook, professor of economics and finance at Sangmyung University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News START] when quoting.

◆ Anchor: It's had a lot of impact on our economy since the emergency martial law. Because of political risks, Korea's growth outlook will now fall to the 1% level next year, and is there a prospect like this?

◇ Seo Eun-sook: In fact, last month, when the Bank of Korea cut its benchmark interest rate in November, it released a revised economic forecast. The economic forecast for next year is expected to be about 1.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from the announcement in August. In the meantime, the impeachment occurred. Under this impeachment, the ADB and major investment banks announced a 0.3 percentage point drop in Korea's economic growth rate next year. So, in the case of ADB, not only in Korea, but also in Asia and the Pacific region as a downside risk to growth, because of the launch of the second Trump administration, tariff hikes are expected.

That's why I'm worried about downside risks because of these policy changes. Next, geopolitical tensions continue not to ease, and this area is intensifying. Then the impact of China's real estate market slump. We believe that downside risks exist because of the impact on neighboring countries. But the important thing is that after the martial law declaration, the discount on the Korean economy, let's say we're the Korea discount. The part that loses a lot of trust from investors. The Korean discount is growing because of the fact that unexpected and unreasonable decisions are being made in Korea.

But the problem is that there are concerns about a very low growth trend from the beginning, so we believe that next year's economic outlook is getting very bad as this issue is pouring cold water on it. In fact, when the economic growth rate is below 2% and below 1%, what we can think about is that the overall vitality of the economy is falling very much. Therefore, rather than an overall economic slowdown, it can be seen that structural problems and long-term risks exist together. This is because Korea has limitations in finding new growth engines, so the existing growth engines themselves are weakening, so the growth rate is under more downward pressure.

◆ ANCHOR: Among the various risks that the professor pointed out, the second Trump administration is about to be launched. From Korea's point of view, it is a part where we have to take measures and think about it, but there are comments such as lack of economic leadership or lack of economic leadership.

◇ Seo Eun-sook: Because the most important thing is that the first quarter of next year is that we have to prepare before the first quarter of the year, we have to prepare for the second period of the Trump administration and pressure for tariff burden or renegotiation of the FTA. Then, in the case of Korea, strategies and countermeasures should be made on how to balance diplomatically and economically due to economic conflicts between the U.S. and China. In fact, in the case of Korea, if the Trump administration puts pressure on China, we are likely to be under the same pressure. So things about that. Therefore, there may be a risk that Korea's export competitiveness may weaken due to the failure to effectively respond to the new tariff trade barriers that the United States can introduce.

In particular, as we know, the Special Act on Semiconductors has not yet passed. Next, automobiles, semiconductors, and automobiles, are major businesses of Korea's exports, and this can be very volatile depending on changes in U.S. policy. This is a time when leaders have to meet and negotiate together nationally in advance, but as it becomes impossible, Trump is concerned that the trust in Korea is likely to be greatly reduced in a way because the situation was negotiated after President Park Geun Hye was impeached and it is still happening.

Excerpt from the conversation: Jung Eui-jin, editor of the digital news team