Israel launches limited ground operations in southern Lebanon

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor
■ Starring: Sung Il-kwang, professor at Sogang University's Euromena Research Center

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Let's take a look at the situation in the Middle East, which is on the verge of escalation, with an expert.

Professor Sung Il-kwang of Sogang University's Euromena Research Institute is here. Welcome.

The ground war has begun, can we see the situation like this?

[Sunlight]
That's right. In fact, words have been said since last week for the Israeli military to deploy ground troops. In addition, because they have actually trained a lot, the ground force was a scheduled step, and the problem was that they told the United States in advance of their intention to deploy ground forces. In fact, reports say that Israel was preparing a larger ground force, but as the United States continues to see it could go into another big war, so start a ground war on a minimum scale because it could escalate, so that's what the agreement seems to have been.

[Anchor]
So if we started ground warfare on a minimum scale, is there a high possibility that we will continue to increase the size of the ground forces in the future?

[Sunlight]
I think that's quite likely to happen now, depending on the direction of the minimum operation. Of course, you could be quite disappointed in the U.S., but we'll have to wait and see if we can continue to work with the U.S. and send in more ground troops or just end up with a small operation as it is now.

[Anchor]
Once you enter the local war, there must be a reason for one place as the goal of the local war, so which part were you targeting?

[Sunlight]
Israel was actually around September 17th. Starting with a beeping attack on Hezbollah, it's actually almost completely overpowered Hezbollah through a surprise attack. Since the Pippi attack, Hezbollah has been continuously carrying out airstrikes on weapons warehouses and infrastructure that it has built in Lebanon. In addition, almost all of Hezbollah's command was assassinated. Hasan Nasrallah, the supreme leadership, has also been assassinated, so there is no response from Hezbollah at all right now, right? In a way, it's just shooting hundreds of missiles and rockets, so as all experts have said, Hezbollah's weapons systems are much better.

Israel is actually still trying to figure out why it's not attacking Tel Aviv when there are a lot of weapons that can attack Tel Aviv and then there are a lot of precision rockets and missiles that can attack the south of Tel Aviv. That's the situation. In the end, what Israel now wants is to neutralize to some extent by attacking the axis of resistance that Iran has grown one by one. That's a completely changed strategy for Israel right now, so you can see it like this.

[Anchor]
You talked about the axis of resistance, followed by Hamas, Hezbollah, and Yemeni rebels a few days ago, Israel is continuing airstrikes. In this local war, as you said, it seems to be aiming for a specific infrastructure. So can we say that the infrastructure is destroyed now, is it a fatal blow to Hezbollah?

[Sunlight]
That's right. It's bound to be a fatal blow. First of all, almost all of the command has died. And then the secretary-general, the supreme leader. Hasan Nasrallah also died. Then important weapons facilities, warehouse facilities, and then infrastructure, especially in northeastern Lebanon, and the Becca area is originally Hezbollah's stronghold. I continued to attack there. And then the southern part of Beirut. The area where Hasan Nasrallah, Dahiye, was assassinated is the base area of Hezbollah. So Israel continues to strike heavily in the southern and eastern parts of Lebanon.

That's where all the infrastructure that Hezbollah has built is because it's originally a Hezbollah stronghold. As a result, Hezbollah, which has been hit hard, is virtually unable to respond systematically, but perhaps Israel's operations will continue to clear up its ranks and retaliate against Israel over time. It can be seen as a situation that is being pushed around to prevent it.

[Anchor]
I think some people think that Nasrallah's death should be a re-election of the leader, but to what extent is it hurting Hezbollah right now?

[Sunlight]
Nasrallah is Hezbollah itself. He's an iconic character. Isn't he Hezbollah's most important person? And then all of Hezbollah's important policy decisions have actually been made by Hasan Nasrallah. However, the fact that such a person was hiding in a 20m bunker and eventually found out by Israel and assassinated is a physical shock, but it can be said that the psychological impact is greater. They thought Israel wouldn't know at all, but almost all of them were assassinated, one by one. In that situation, Hezbollah seems to be almost in a state of disintegration.Ma, but the same goes for Hamas, but it is practically difficult to completely destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon. Because as time goes by, the Hezbollah organization is more likely to rebuild. That's why it's hard to completely destroy, but it's definitely a fatal blow.

[Anchor]
So Nasrallah's death could be the main reason for not being able to fight back properly right now?

[Sunlight]
I think so. So as time goes by, we're going to continue to sort out the members of the organization in order to continue to clean up and respond. Israel continues to push for how long it will take, and not to give it that time.

[Anchor]
The fact that the supreme leader died even though he was hiding, in a way, Israel almost took control of Hezbollah information, I think you can see it like this.

[Sunlight]
That's right. In fact, Hezbollah uses more than one internal communication network. I'm using a variety of cell phones, but I also have a walkie talkie, beepie, and other various internal communication networks besides cell phones. All of this was actually pretty much taken over by the Xiang Israel intelligence service. It all means that Israel is wiretapping or wiretapping. In that situation, in fact, it has become quite difficult for the Hezbollah leadership to conduct operations in secret or to respond systematically to Israel.

[Anchor]
Anyway, from Iran's point of view, it's a time when our friends are continuously being attacked. Blood retaliation, I said this, but there's no action. How do you see that part?

[Sunlight]
Iran is a serious dilemma. Because if it wasn't for reformist President Masood Pejesikyan, if it were Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash, or a very hard-line conservative president, I would have already responded, it seems so. President Pejeshikyan will also negotiate again with the U.S. Then I will be close to the West, and I will make a new relationship. Because Iran's economy is too difficult. We have to lift the sanctions. If sanctions are not lifted, the Iranian economy is almost in a state of collapse, so we have to endure it. Although Hezbollah is a very important organization and Iran's most cherished organization here, it can be too costly to engage in armed conflict with the United States and Israel to save Hezbollah. What Iran specifically suspects is that the U.S. and Israel could take this opportunity to hit Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran in particular is a nuclear power. You can make a nuclear warhead in a few weeks if you set your mind to it. Because of that situation, Iran has no choice but to seriously think here.

What's more interesting is that inside Iran, Iranian leaders are now fighting fiercely over this line. Originally, these contents do not come out, but they are being reported in the media because they are fighting so fiercely and fiercely. For example, hard-liners need to beat dogs that go crazy with clubs. Can you guess who this is? It's Israel. On the contrary, the reformists want conservatives to wake up from their dreams, wake up. Don't fall into Netanyahu's trap. You must refrain from doing so. Like this, the two sides and the two camps are fighting.

[Anchor]
Then, if Iran is in a situation where neither I nor I can do it, Israel's goal is to destroy Hamas. So the terrain is turning in favor of Israel?

[Sunlight]
That's right. Israel's image as a military power in the Middle East has collapsed considerably since the terrain was actually attacked by Hamas on October 7 last year. The deterrent has been broken a lot. But Israel turns the tide completely over Hezbollah, starting with the Pippi attack. They overpowered Hezbollah and actively attacked the Houthis in Yemen, where fighter jets flew 1,700 kilometers now, and they attacked it last time. We attacked twice. That's why Israel's aggressive strategy of aggressive resistance is working. There is a possibility that the front line will continue to spread to Iraq and Syria.

[Anchor]
A media outlet in the United States analyzed it like this. Hezbollah made a misjudgment. He misjudged that Israel was weak and Iran was strong.

[Sunlight]
That was the existing analysis. That's what many experts thought. Because Hezbollah's judgment is that it will not be able to deploy ground forces well because Israel struggled in the war against Hezbollah in 2006. And there was that belief that Israel would not be able to easily touch Hezbollah because we have a weapon system that is incomparable to the tremendous Hamas, but Israel has taken advantage of that to take the lead by suppressing Hezbollah, starting with this surprise pippi attack. And Israel has no better chance of thinking now. If we miss this opportunity after 18 years of consultation since 2006, we will never get a chance to subdue Hezbollah again. That's why they're pushing hard.

[Anchor]
First of all, will the air raid on the axis of resistance continue in an escalation pattern?

[Sunlight]
That's how I see it.

[Anchor]
The United States has now proposed a ceasefire, so is there no way to listen to the United States? How do I look at it?

[Sunlight]
That's right. President Biden's words are not working right now. First of all, President Biden doesn't go to the next election, so for Netanyahu, President Biden doesn't seem that important because he already has to talk to Trump or Harris and the elected candidate. And even though they are cooperating in various operations, they are still dragging them in the direction they want.

[Anchor]
Then why is the U.S. increasing the number of troops in the Middle East? [Sung Il-kwang] That's mainly Iran, which is the increase in U.S. troops. As Iran said, it is in a serious dilemma, but it is still difficult to predict what decisions will be made, but there is a possibility of an attack. You could do a mainland attack on Israel again, like April. In that case, the U.S. has more troops in place to help Israel, just in case.

[Anchor]
Finally, whether the U.S. intervenes now and negotiations between the U.S. and Israel are likely to be quite a variable, but a month before the U.S. presidential election is also an important variable. How do you expect it to flow?

[Sunlight]
In the United States, especially for the ruling party, President Biden, and Democratic candidate Harris, this war needs to end quickly. If it's not over, wouldn't it give President Trump an excuse to be attacked for failing the public movement policy? That's why I've been working hard. How much effort has been made to make a ceasefire in Gaza? However, it didn't work, and the current situation continues to say that there is no ceasefire, no ceasefire, or no escalation, but it is a unfortunate situation that does not work.

[Anchor]
Anyway, it seems that the Middle East is in a situation where there is a high possibility of escalation.

This has been Professor Sung Il-kwang of Sogang University's Euromena Institute. Thank you.