Israel launches limited ground operations in southern Lebanon

■ Host: Anchor Jeong Ji-woong
■ Starring: Ma Young-sam, former ambassador to Israel

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN24] when quoting.

[Anchor]
In our view, Israeli forces crossed Lebanon's border early this morning and launched a limited ground operation against armed factions and Hezbollah.

Let's take a closer look at the situation in the Middle East, which is on the verge of escalation, with experts.

Ma Young-sam, former ambassador to Israel, is here. Hello,

[Ma Young-sam]
How are you?

[Anchor]
First, it was announced that the Israeli military had officially launched a ground operation. Let's start by looking at the recent situation in the Middle East.

[Ma Youngsam]
The war between Israel and Hamas has been going on for the past year. However, so far, Hamas' combat power seems to have weakened considerably. So now Israel is expanding that front north, because the Hamas side has caused a lot of damage to Israelis in the south.Ma now has about 100,000 Israeli residents in the north, too, who have fled to the south. Because Hezbollah troops on the border continued to fire rockets and missiles towards Israel. So now Israel has set a goal to get these refugees back into their daily lives and has continued to announce this goal that they will not be able to fight ground war to achieve it.

[Anchor]
Now, the Israeli military is a limited ground operation, and I expressed it with a modifier like this. What is the difference from a normal ground war?

[Ma Youngsam]
There is a possibility that the Israeli soldiers will be sacrificed considerably if we engage in ground war. Because if you end up going in, you'll have to fight a street battle, and there's also a tunnel there. So the current limited or local area seems to me to be trying to set up the Demilitarized Zone at the moment. It is called the Ritani River, which is about 30 km from the border. Since then, operations to prevent Hezbollah forces from entering are currently being carried out, so they are limited and local. I think they're using these words.

[Anchor]
Israeli forces are now said to have tanks stationed in villages across the Lebanese border. It is said that the Lebanese army has also redeployed its troops. What happens to the next military operation of the Israeli army? As far as I know, there are also a few airstrikes in Beirut right now, is there a possibility that they will make it that far?

[Ma Young-sam]
Yes, right now Israel has done a lot of attacks in the last few days, not only in the south, but in the vicinity of Beirut. So Nasrallah died right in southern Beirut. Not only that, yesterday there was a Palestinian Liberation Front called the PFLP. They attacked where the agents were. As expected, it was the heart of Beirut. So if you think that a targeted assassination is necessary, the Israeli Air Force is expected to continue to attack Beirut as well.

[Anchor]
Beirut, so are you analyzing that there is a possibility of advancing to the capital?

[Ma Youngsam]
The ground forces are currently limited, so they will stay in the south, but they are expected to continue attacking using their air power.

[Anchor]
The ground forces do not go all the way to Beirut, but can only conduct partial attacks such as air strikes with Beirut, right?

[Ma Youngsam]
That's right. At present, what can only be seen as such is a limited war on the Israeli side and a local war on the American side. I think it would be good to interpret it as meaning that you will not go up to the north.

[Anchor]
It is said that it has been 18 years since 2006 for Israel's ground operation, but I think it would be meaningful to say that it is the beginning of the ground operation in 18 years.

[Ma Youngsam]
That's right. Israel struggled quite a bit in the 2006 war. So you can say that we've done a lot of research on how we can win the battle against Hezbollah. First, information power. We had to collect intelligence more accurately and quickly, and eventually we had a lot of sacrifices there because we had a tank unit going in and an infantry division going in. So a way to reduce this. That's how we're putting in some fairly well-trained soldiers right now, so that's what you'll see.

[Anchor]
The ground war is still limited, but in fact, you don't know a thing about war at all, right? If we proceed, it could be a full-fledged war, right?

[Ma Youngsam]
I have enough. So now, Israel is very carefully monitoring the situation, and there is a good chance that war, fighting, will unexpectedly escalate. So now in the United States, it's said that we should continue to stay in local warfare, but eventually, it's assumed that Israeli ground forces will withdraw quickly if they enter and achieve their primary goal.

[Anchor]
The war against Hezbollah seems to be taking a new turn as ground forces are deployed now. There seems to be a possibility of counterattacks from other Muslim forces. What kind of options are there among the groups that we call the axis of resistance, for example Iran?

[Ma Youngsam]
An attack on the axis of resistance is expected. Because the supreme leader of Khamenei Iran has already made that announcement. All countries in the Islamic world said they should join forces to attack Israel, and so far, the Iranian-backed axis of resistance has continued to attack, and the Houthis have already fired two missiles at Israel yesterday. And as this war continues, Hamas now, Hamas in Gaza in the south, is likely to attack Israel again.

So now, various forces of resistance will attack Israel, and the biggest question is how much Iran will participate. Also, whether Iran participates directly or indirectly. In other words, it is a question of whether the Iranian military enters directly or not, but there is no indication that the Iranian military will enter directly. Because what was announced by Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked for military troops from Hezbollah, but it seems that there is no need to send them yet. Because I think Hezbollah will be able to prevent it enough. It came out like this. In other words, it seems that the decision has not yet been made until Iran's direct involvement.

[Anchor]
Of course, Iran can be prevented as the former ambassador said, but didn't Israel air strike and kill Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, a few days ago? So in the case of Israel, Hezbollah's intelligence and military penetration capabilities have been eroded a lot, so what do you think?

[Ma Youngsam]
With these several airstrikes, Israel has powerful intelligence. And it was very accurate when it attacked. Therefore, the evaluation of the Israeli army and the Air Force equipped with high-tech weapons is very different now. As such, Israel's military and intelligence power far exceeds Hezbollah's now. So it's questionable to what extent Hezbollah will respond to this war now. Because now, with Nasrallah's removal, Hezbollah members say they will retaliate quickly and strongly, but that will and actual ability are another thing. In particular, most of the current commanders are now dead. So the chain of command has now collapsed. Hezbollah, which needs to restore it quickly, has such an urgent task.

[Anchor]
If the current situation continues, is it possible to destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon?

[Ma Youngsam]
Hezbollah is not only armed, but it also has a party organization. There are now 18 factions in Lebanon, one of them. However, Hezbollah currently has about a third-party seat. So even if Hezbollah loses some of its fighting power as an armed force, I think it will be able to restore it as soon as possible, because it has quite a lot of political foundations.

[Anchor]
Israel, two days after removing Nasrallah, now the head of Hezbollah, they turned the arrow to Yemen and attacked the Houthis base. In view of this situation, what do you think is Israel's intention?

[Ma Youngsam]
Israel is fighting Hezbollah, but Iran is probably bigger in Israel's head than Hezbollah. So the reason why they attacked the Houthi rebels is because they attacked Israel with missiles, so as a response, the Israeli Air Force attacked the Houthi rebels. But the distance is 1800km. The distance from Israel to Iran is similar. In other words, it is correct to interpret this as a strong message that Israel can attack any part of Iran or any target if it decides.

[Anchor]
In the case of Prime Minister Netanyahu, the war has been prolonged and politically disadvantageous, but if he successfully leads the southern war in Lebanon this time, will he be able to secure a political position in his home country?

[Ma Youngsam]
There's a story like that. According to yesterday's poll, there are reports that support for Netanyahu has risen to 43%. However, if the war is over and the election is held again, the public opinion of the Israeli people is likely to change again once the election period is set. So, even though the support of citizens has increased due to the strong attack, I don't know how much the Netanyahu or the Likud Party will be able to bring about if there is a situation where they have to elect someone again through an election. A significant number of people go too far with Netanyahu. There are about 100 hostages left now, and the war lasted for a year. There are quite a lot of complaints about this.

[Anchor]
Earlier, he said that Iran's direct military intervention has not yet been seen. So they thought I would maintain a cautious attitude. If the 5th Middle East War could happen, what would be the biggest variable to pull embers?

[Ma Youngsam]
I think that's Iran's response. How much Iran intervenes now has become a top-notch concern, but if Iran attacks Israel on a large scale like the last time, it would be a very important excuse for Israel. In the last attack on April 19, Israel attacked an air defense base defending Iran's nuclear facilities. What that means is that Israel is able to attack any target in Iran. If that happens, it's likely to be a very big war, a full-scale war between Iran and Israel. But will it even go to such a situation? I don't think it's very likely to go that far because I think the U.S. should actively defend this issue.

[Anchor]
What's the best picture America thinks of right now?

[Ma Youngsam]
Now, the war that we've had with Hamas for a year now, is to end this quickly. If there is a ceasefire, Hezbollah and Iran will have their own cause to stop the war. So now, President Biden is still working very hard on the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. However, both Hamas and Israel seem to believe that it is not in their interests to reach a ceasefire so quickly. So it doesn't seem very likely that there will be a ceasefire.

[Anchor]
Some people say that Israel is passing the U.S., but are the two really close? Or is it just on the outside?

[Ma Youngsam]
The U.S. believes that Israel is definitely responsible for its defense. So if you look at it many times now, the U.S. is intervening and preventing Israel from being attacked. But on the other hand, we're taking a very cautious approach to the Biden administration and Harris ahead of the current U.S. presidential election because this war could have a negative impact.

[Anchor]
It's probably the most important and the most curious part right now, but the wars related to this now. Hamas and Israel-related wars. When will it be over?

[Ma Youngsam]
It seems to me that both sides are currently waiting for the U.S. presidential election. President Biden has quite lost his influence now, and no matter who becomes president in the U.S. presidential election, he has four or eight years left in his term. Then we can't ignore the influence of those early new presidents. That should be reflected considerably for Israel as well. If that happens, I think the war will end by then.

[Anchor]
Finally, North Korea made this tough voice that Israel is wiping out the Arab people's right to live. Why can I see this part?

[Ma Youngsam]
The question is which side North Korea is on in this war, and the North's view of Israel is an ally with the United States. So because I'm on the side of the United States, I've been taking an anti-Israel stance on Israel. And Arab countries have a lot of things that align with North Korea's current diplomatic ideology. So there's been a lot of support for this third country and for the independence of Arab and Palestinian states. Furthermore, Hamas is now supported by Iran, and various areas between Iran and North Korea have been in the past. In particular, we have cooperated with each other on the development of weapons of mass destruction. Therefore, this attitude of North Korea seems to be right to stand in solidarity with Iran and the forces of the axis of resistance.

[Anchor]
We took a detailed look with an expert on the situation in the Middle East, which is on the verge of escalation such as ground war.

Ma Young-sam was with the Israeli ambassador in the previous week. Thank you for today.