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- 'Uljukshin' frenzy, Gyeonggi-do 'Indeokwon' apartment price frame with lots of new construction
- What should I do about buying my own house? Loans on the mortgage loans were tightened, and the cap on special loans for newborns was raised. a policy that fails to keep up with the market
◇ Interest line: Is the issue far? This time gives you valuable information that makes money just by listening carefully. Hit instructors in each field will tell you how to reduce taxes, how to reduce real estate stocks, and how to do so. You're not doing a real Bokdeokbang today. I connected to Gwang-su's Bokdeokbang and Lee Kwang-soo's representative phone, which will give you rich and dark information as your name. Hello,
★ Lee Kwang-soo: Hello. Today's theme is <Prospect of House Price After Chuseok and Expectations for Reconstruction>. Then I'll give you the first question.
◈ Choi Soo-young: Where is the real estate market going now that the Chuseok holiday is over? Furthermore, as the U.S. Fed makes a so-called big cut in interest rates, how do you predict whether this will affect housing prices, whether it will rise, fall, or stabilize?
★ Lee Kwang-soo: We've said a lot that once we forecast the market after Chuseok, there's a high possibility that housing prices will fall due to reduced trading volume. However, as you said, the transaction volume has already decreased and the interest rate cut has already been visible, but in my opinion, hasn't the expectation of a rate cut already been included in the Korean real estate market? That's what I'm thinking. As I said, there is investment in the Korean real estate market, so if there is any sign of such a change, people react first. So, for example, if interest rates are cut, you don't wait until then, but you just buy a house by getting a loan in advance. So, I've already been reflected in the market, and if there's no additional significant cut just because that's the case, I think it's actually a little limited to raise house prices and change the market because of interest rate cuts.
◇ Lee Ik-seon: You can ask for counseling because my situation is similar while listening to the show. Or if you have any questions about real estate investment, please ask us. We will ask CEO Lee Kwang-soo for sure. I heard that the real estate system has changed a lot since Chuseok, what are some?
★ Kwangsoo Lee: That's right. There are always different systems in the first half and the second half. If you look at the second half of this year, loan regulations will be strengthened a little. So, stress DSR was originally supposed to be applied in July, but it was delayed by two months, and it will be applied in earnest from September. Then when you get a mortgage, there is a possibility that it will decrease a little more than the limit. So, we can't calculate it overall, but loans can be reduced by about 5,000 to 70 million won for those who receive about 100 million won in annual salary. I think it'll be good if you look at it like this. The other thing is that various systems have changed, but there are not many things that affect the market, but among them, what I'm paying attention to is new apartments. Representatively, villas are excluded from the number of houses when calculating the transfer tax if you purchase or own this house. So in the past, even if you had a villa, there was a regulation on multi-homeowners, but you have to pay more transfer tax, but from the second half of this year, you will have a villa and not include it in the number of houses. So, there is this system, and the other thing is that we pay attention to is special loans for newborns, and so far, we have not been able to get a loan for an annual salary of more than 130 million won. It was raised to 200 million won. So, even relatively high-income people can get policy loans from the government and buy their own homes. These systems have changed characteristically since Chuseok.
◇ Lee Ik-seon: By the way, I just heard that the CEO is pouring cold water into the hot water over there, and the reason is that as you said earlier, I heard that the limit on mortgage loans was reduced a little?
★ Kwangsoo Lee: That's right.
◇ Profit line: If you cut the limit, it would be difficult to buy a house, but if you raise the annual salary limit without adding the villa to the number of houses, then this is to buy again, and not to buy in front of you, what should I do?
★ Lee Kwang-soo: The policies that are in effect now are those that came out when housing prices fell. So, there is some confusion in this policy due to fluctuations in prices because the market is so fast, but what you said is very important. The reason is that there is a lot of uncertainty because policies change very frequently when I buy my own house in Korea. So, I have to plan and match things in the long run, but housing prices are moving and policies are changing so much that it is very difficult to buy my own house, and from an investment point of view, this is a dangerous market. There is a lot of volatility, so you need to be careful in that regard.
◈ Choi Soo-young: Yes. However, there are many reports that apartment prices in Seoul will rise a little, but there are also reports that apartment prices in major areas of Gyeonggi-do are also wiggling. Among them, Indeokwon's apartment has recently been reported, so why is the Indeokwon area on the rise?
★ Lee Kwang-soo: So you need to read the direction, but if the price of apartments in Seoul goes up, the price of apartments in major parts of Gyeonggi Province goes up. However, the reason why Indeokwon is attracting attention now is that there are many new apartments in Indeokwon. So, these days, real residents buy apartments and borrow loans, and demand is concentrated there. Have you heard of "Eoljukshin" these days?
◈ Choi Soo-young: I've heard of it. New construction rather than construction, new construction even if it freezes to death.
★ Lee Kwang-soo: That's why areas such as Indeokwon, where demand is relatively high in Gyeonggi-do Province and where many new buildings are gathered, are attracting attention.
◇ Profitship: No, is there another merit benefit to the fact that there are many new construction projects?
★ Lee Kwang-soo: In the case of Indeokwon, the issue that GTX will be opened continues to emerge. Representatively, the GTX C line will be opened, and Indeokwon is definitely a transportation hub. So these infrastructures will continue to be opened in the future, but as you all know, these infrastructures take a long time. You need to take those into account.
◈ Choi Soo-young: But the Indeokwon C route you originally mentioned in Icheon was scheduled to open in 2028, but the first shovel has not yet been opened for more than half a year, so to speak, it's a rather rosy future. Can this be such a boon?
★ Lee Kwang-soo: So this is something that you have to look at temporarily reflected the good news once, and because of this delay issue, apartment prices in Indeokwon fell a lot compared to their peak. As a result, as demand enters again, GTX is being talked about, but as you said, it takes a long time for the main team. You have to take that into account when it opens, and especially in the case of GTX, I think it's right to take a little more time because it's intertwined with the budget or other parts of the government.
◇ Interest line: I see. 0872. They gave me this text. It's important to look at the housing transaction volume from the opposite side. Buying a lot means selling a lot. It may mean that many multi-homeowners have disposed of it. They gave it to me like this.
★ Kwangsoo Lee: That's right. An interesting phenomenon is that in the first half of this year, apartment transactions in Seoul increased significantly. In August alone, there were about 8,800 cases, so how suddenly this increased, for example, a year or two ago, the average transaction volume of apartments in Seoul was less than 2,000. And then it almost quadrupled in a month. But what you said is very important, and then the person who bought it is clear. So what it is is that because household loans increased, end users and homeless people bought it. But who sold it matters, right?
◇ Interest line: Right. I haven't even thought about that.
★ Kwangsoo Lee: So I think what the listener said is really good.
◈ Choi Soo-young: I think it's a professional idea.
★ Kwangsoo Lee: That's right. Because I keep emphasizing, you have to look at the world with both eyes. He's a person to buy, but who's going to sell one? That's the investment perspective.
◇ Lee Ik-seon: Who sold it?
★ Lee Kwang-soo: It's a multi-homeowner.
◇ Lee Ik-seon: So if a multi-homeowner sells it, isn't it his intention to increase cash liquidity?
★ Kwangsoo Lee: That's right. And the other thing is, can house prices continue to rise? I'm sure they were concerned about this. For example, if you predict that house prices will continue to rise, in fact, there is no reason for those who own homes for investment purposes to sell them, right? So in fact, those phenomena have happened, but they are now appearing. As evidence, as demand decreases, trading volume decreases, but selling volume is increasing. The amount of apartments sold in Seoul. A month or two ago, it was about 75,000 cases, but suddenly it decreased to 83,84,000 cases, and people who own homes want to sell it.
◇ Lee Ik-seon: So this is how the so-called big hands that are moving first look at one and follow it? What should I do?
★ Lee Kwang-soo: So we can't keep up with it one by one, but the important thing is that the market is changing like this, and you need to look at it with a little longer perspective.
◇ Interest line: I see. I see. The counseling story has arrived. We'll read your stories. Hello. I am a newlywed couple in my mid-30s living in Seoul. I don't have a child yet, but I'm currently planning. My parents purposely opened a subscription account early, so I have paid 24.4 million won for 204 times. However, it is an old subscription savings that can only be sold in public because it is a bank account made a long time ago. Since 2019, I have applied for public sale in the Seoul metropolitan area, but it has fallen off every time. As time passed, I held out thinking that the payment round was right, but the passing cut line keeps going up as the years go by. I think I'm about 30 times behind the acceptance cut line, so would it be right to just give up or postpone the public sale and buy it now? My real income is about 4.6 million won and my wife is earning 200,000 to 3 million won as freelancer. The money saved is about 250 million. In the current situation, if the limit on the recognition of subscription savings reaches 250,000 won, I will cry and pay with mustard, but seeing the recent rise in housing prices, I wonder if it is right to go out and buy in the Gyeonggi-do area. However, my workplace is Gwanghwamun and my wife is not every day for work, but I think it will be difficult to move far because I often go to Gwanghwamun. Watching the recent rise in housing prices, I keep thinking that it would be better to go out to the Gyeonggi-do area and buy it. In Kwang-soo's view, which one is a better choice? I ask for your advice from the wise Gwang-su. What can you tell me?
★ Lee Kwang-soo: First of all, I want to say that there are a lot of people who are worried about this these days, so there are a lot of people who cancel subscription savings. But let's never cancel me. For example, people who really need money will have to cancel, but in fact, market conditions can change at any time, and for example, homeless people sign up for subscription savings, we're planning to make a public subscription in the future and buy my own house there. However, if the 3rd new city or reconstruction is activated a little bit in the future, there may be many apartments you will subscribe to for sale, so don't be too disappointed just because you're just dropping like him. I hope you take a long period of time and at least don't cancel your subscription account. And there's another thing. Say this. Watching the recent rise in housing prices, I think it would be right to buy it. I keep emphasizing, but I hope it's the other way around. In other words, housing prices fell just a year and a half ago. But when house prices fall, they don't think about buying my own house. And when the house price rises like this, I get impatient. That should be the other way around. So the market is always changing, and in a situation of high uncertainty like now, there is a good chance that house prices will fall and loans will be inevitable in my budget, but when that happens, let's get my own house. And I think there is a high possibility that you will make the wrong choice if you live in a hurry because the house price is rising like this.
◈ Choi Soo-young: Okay. But as I mentioned earlier, the government recently reorganized various systems such as subscription bankbooks. At the same time, the monthly payment recognition amount increases and the number of minors' payment recognition increases, so how do you think this will affect it?
★ Lee Kwang-soo: That's because the younger generation or those who signed up for subscription savings early can't score relatively. Since it recognizes 100,000 won each, it has to be paid for a long time, and as a result, the opportunity comes too late, so the government actually raised the payment to maintain some kind of unfairness or fairness. In that sense, it may be a system that rather helps people like this now. So, of course, if the amount increases to 150,000 won, it can be a burden. These days, interest rates are also raised little by little for subscription savings, so if you're not too burdened with your life, you can pay less. So, I think you don't have to worry too much about that.
◇ Lee Ik-seon: We're going the other way as we were talking a little bit earlier. You said that people try to live when they go up, but if they fall down, they are less interested. But you mentioned earlier that buying is decreasing again as the summer passes. Should I say it's time to buy now?
★ Kwangsoo Lee: That's right. From now on, I want you to plan your own house carefully. Don't be in a hurry. Where can you see the evidence? Seoul's apartment transaction volume is 8,800 in July,
◇ Lee Ik-seon: Yes, you said that.
★ Lee Kwang-soo: But it decreased to 6,000 cases in September. There was a decrease of more than 2,000 cases. And then in September, I think there will be only about 4,000 cases. In other words, there is not much demand in the market. In the second half of the year, the asset price means that demand forms the price. I think that if demand decreases, price changes will be inevitable.
◇ Profit line: Then look at the current downtrend, so to a certain extent, this period. The time period is roughly difficult, but?
★ Kwangsoo Lee: I can't predict the period. But the thing that always changes is that I want you to look at the volume of transactions well. We only look at the price. But real experts look at the volume of transactions. Whether it's stocks or real estate, so prices are bound to fall in the ever-decreasing section of trading volume, for example, and that change is likely to continue for a while.
◇ Profit line: You said 75,000 and 85,000 that there were a lot of sales earlier, but the actual trading volume fell below 6,000 means that less than a tenth of it is being completed, right?
★ Kwangsoo Lee: Yes.
◇ Profit line: Then we can try it at a lower price?
★ Kwangsoo Lee: That's right. That's why we're imagining it. Even when homeless people plan to buy their own houses, imagine that I have a house. For example, I have two houses or one for investment purposes, but the market is a little unstable, so I put one out. That's the increase in sales volume. By the way, how do you sell your house when it's on the property? If it was recently traded for about 500 million won, my house is clean and there is less noise between floors, so please sell it for about 550 million won. You're going to be like this.
◇ Interest line: That's right.
★ Kwangsoo Lee: So when the selling volume increases, the price goes up strangely. But that's the price that can't be traded. So you might think, for example, real estate agents and other indicators keep going up. But that's not really the market price if there's no deal. But what would you do if you put it out for 550 million won and no one came to see it? What are you going to do? Then why don't you come and see my house? There is no demand these days. Then how can we lower the price by 30 million won? So the starting point for the price to go down is the increase in sales. So after the sale increases, the asking price will go down. So if the asking price goes down enough, someone else will buy it. What should I do then? There must be a section where the transaction volume increases as the price falls.
◈ Choi Soo-young: I see. I'll have to grab this.
★ Kwangsoo Lee: Okay.
◈ Choi Soo-young: Then let me ask you something about the villa, not about the apartment. Amid the recent fluctuations in apartment prices, the actual transaction price of Seoul Villa also showed that the increase in July actually outpaced the apartment, and the transaction amount also exceeded 1 trillion won for the first time in 25 months. So, it's been a product that villas are very reluctant to buy jeonse. But should I say it's a bit lively?
★ Kwangsoo Lee: That's right. First of all, the gap widened as apartment prices rose, and as the government came up with various measures and safety measures, jeonse fraud was the most urgent problem for consumers in villas. It's a lease on a deposit basis, but a little bit of protection has begun to be established for that, and as a result, the price of the villa has fallen a lot and something has begun to change, which is very important, but in all asset markets, the price has fallen. Demand is supposed to come in. Whether it's a villa or a stock, it's an apartment, so at that level, the changes in villas occur, and what's noteworthy is whether this is a trend or will continue to increase, but I still need some time to do that.
◈ Choi Soo-young: We still need some time.
◇ Lee Ik-seon: I heard that there is an unranked subscription frenzy in the middle of this. Amid a series of unranked subscription frenzy in areas such as Dongjak, Wirye, and Suseo, the amount of pick-ups is just picking up. I heard there's a lot of stuff to pick up.
★ Kwangsoo Lee: Yes. There are two reasons for that, and one is that demand for apartments with a ceiling on the sale price is concentrated. And since there are not many areas where the upper limit on the sale price is applied, for example, there is a lot of interest as demand is concentrated. The second is that there are increasing cases in which you have won the subscription like that, but you can't actually make a contract. This is a unique point, but for example, I won because it was called Lotto subscription. But there are more and more people who can't sign contracts. At the same time, unranked subscriptions and first-come, first-served sales are coming out. But we need to think about it. Why can't you sign a contract when you won the lottery? I told you straightforwardly because I don't have money. Actually, this is a very important keyword for you to understand the Korean real estate market. As I keep telling you, real estate is not about wanting to buy it, but about who can buy it. However, regardless of whether the ceiling on the sale price is applied, apartment prices are very high, so it shows that there is not much demand in the market to cover it. So, if loans do not continue to increase, so in August alone, household loans will increase by about 9 trillion won only in mortgage loans. If it doesn't increase like this, in fact, when we talk about real estate, you all want to live in Seoul. I want to live in Gangnam. That's right. I want to live in all of them. But that's not all demand. It has to be a demand that you can buy. We can see clearly from the fact that we cannot sign a contract even though we have received a subscription that there is not much demand to buy in the market.
◇ Interest line: I see. Let's take a look at the reconstruction situation as well.
◈ Choi Soo-young: Reconstruction apartments have been popular for a while, but recently, expectations for reconstruction have been a bit wiggling. So, I will buy in advance that the number of old apartment transactions that have exceeded 30 years has increased since the third quarter of this year. Expectations for reconstruction were reflected. Do I have to look at it like this?
★ Kwangsoo Lee: Yes. So, the reason why expectations for reconstruction are rising is that the government calls old housing a maintenance project, and there have been various regulations on reconstruction and redevelopment projects. As the government has come up with development regulations, such as an increase in floor area ratio, selection of leading districts, and special laws, people will be able to make money by reconstructing it. I have a lot of these thoughts. At the same time, demand is coming into some markets and it's making some changes.
◇ Interest line: I see. But I have a question while I was talking, so let me ask you one thing. You said earlier that multiple homeowners sold a lot of houses. It's expensive, but the house price has fallen now. It's falling.
★ Kwangsoo Lee: No, it's not falling yet.
◇ Lee Ik-seon: Isn't it? Then if it falls further, the people who sold it then will buy the house again, right?
★ Kwangsoo Lee : This is possible.
◇ Profitship: So that means selling it expensive and buying it cheaply.
★ Kwangsoo Lee: Yes. That's why you see the increase in multi-homeowners' apartments. That's the same as the anchor said now. I only buy it when the house price drops. If the house price goes up, we sell it. But homeless people are the opposite. I buy it when the house price goes up. It is likely to be sold when it falls. So I don't think this is an inevitable phenomenon. So we need to change this idea a little bit.
◇ Lee Ik-seon: I understand what you mean.
★ Lee Kwang-soo: Even if you buy your own house, you choose it two or three times in your life. Even if you have a small loan, you can do that when there is a high possibility that the Korean economy will grow and housing prices will rise, as in the past, but you could always buy your own house without much thought, but now it's not. So you need to think about those things.
◇ Profit line: Okay.
◈ Choi Soo-young: I think I'll be the last question. In fact, for those who want to actually sell now, the biggest concern is what the housing price movement will look like after Chuseok. However, there are opinions that it will rise further and warnings that may fall beyond the flat are coming and going, so as the CEO of Kwang-soo's Bokdeokbang, I would like to ask for some realistic advice on whether it is better to buy my house or not.
★ Lee Kwang-soo: So you know, in the end, we're going to do it in the future, whether it's buying our own house or investing in real estate, but the future is very hard to predict. I'm telling you a prediction because it's something that I'm predicting. So while you're listening to various opinions, there's an important premise. For example, rather than when real estate prices are rising, the market may become a little more stable and house prices may fall. If you make a plan to buy your own house then and say this, there are people who say, "Hey, I can't do it because house prices don't fall." But didn't we experience it?
◇ Interest line: That's right.
★ Lee Kwang-soo: So I'm sure that time could come again and when I look at the various indicators and the situation right now, it's very likely that I want you to get your own house at that time. But you have to make a specific plan to get your own house. For example, if you prepare a list of houses you want to live in, how much would it be to raise funds? For example, the price of this apartment is 500 million won now, but if it falls by 400 million won, I can do it. You have to have these plans. So I hope you take this opportunity.
◇ Lee Ik-seon: I see. That's all for today's talk. Thank you. We've been with Lee Kwang-soo, CEO of Kwangsoo's Bokdeokbang.
◈ Choi Soo-young: Thank you very much.
★ Kwangsoo Lee: Thank you.
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