[News UP] North Korea's 'separation of territories'... The institutionalization of the 'two countries' is not yet...

■ Host: Cho Jin-hyuk Anchor
■ Telephone connection: Senior Researcher at Hongmin Unification Research Institute

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News UP] when quoting.

[Anchor]
North Korea has started to completely cut off the inter-Korean land route. It has not yet been confirmed whether the 'two countries' are institutionalized through constitutional amendments. Let me point out what North Korea's intentions are. I'm connected to a senior researcher at the Hongmin Institute for Unification. Commissioner, are you out?

[Hongmin]
Hello,

[Anchor]
How are you? The North Korean General Staff said yesterday that it would completely cut off the means of connecting land to South Korea, including roads and railways. The inter-Korean border is 254 kilometers long, so how specifically will it be separated?

[Hongmin]
North Korea has already taken steps to completely cut off parts related to North Korea and Russia, especially railways and roads, on the east, west and west sides of the DMZ, starting with the restoration of GPs in 2024 and January this year. The existing railroad or road has been completely cut off and landmines have been laid to make it impossible to enter. On top of that, we even installed a barrier. So, installing a barrier means that it will completely prevent it from passing by. It means that they have officially confirmed the blocking work that they have been doing without announcement. The fortification that North Korea expressed here means that it will keep the actual military or expand the barrier higher to make it a permanent barrier.

[Anchor]
You just mentioned that it is a permanent wall, but there is a saying that if a fortress is built as North Korea claims, it will become the second Berlin Wall, what do you think?

[Hongmin]
It's hard to rule out that possibility. It's very long, but once you first block the main land passageway and build the barrier there first, and then raise the barrier by fortifying it more, it's very likely that you'll gradually expand it to other areas and block most areas of the border in that way.

Of course, if the height is very severe depending on the terrain conditions, there may be points where it is difficult to consistently install these barriers, but in general, if you have this will, there is a high possibility that such facilities will be equipped to some extent. This could lead to a state in which not only private access but also all access is completely blocked, and in particular, North Korean defectors may find it difficult to cross the border while being completely blocked.

[Anchor]
As you pointed out earlier, since January of this year, North Korea has continued to impose inter-Korean disconnection measures by laying landmines and building barriers, but the territorial separation measures have only begun. Can you also point out the reason and background for this announcement?

[Hongmin]
The justification North Korea revealed in its announcement yesterday is that the U.S. and South Korea are practically continuing to practice aggression in their border areas, the U.S. military is continuing to deploy strategic assets, and the end of the regime is constantly being called for. I see this as a crisis that is difficult to overlook. And he tells me the background that he thinks it's a serious situation. For him, they have no choice but to build a barrier to deter war and then to protect their safety. That's how I explained it. In the end, it should be seen that their intentions are like this. In any case, the crisis is all coming from Korea and the United States by shifting some kind of responsibility to us, Korea and the United States. So, because the crisis is so serious, they have no choice but to completely block it by building a barrier in order to protect their safety.

That's how you use this logic. So they're actually claiming and actually trying to realize the two-state theory of North and South Korea based on various political intentions, the part of increasing deterrence using tactical nuclear weapons, the part of having arms talks. I think it can be seen that we are actually looking for a justification by putting the responsibility on the threat of the South Korea-U.S. side.

[Anchor]
You mean that South Korea and the United States are now implementing these measures in the name of threatening their own countries. The South Korean military has defined North Korea's actions as an attempt to change the status quo and said it is closely watching them. However, Chairman Kim Jong-un once delivered a message to South Korea that he had no intention of attacking, so what criteria should we judge North Korea's provocations in this situation?

[Hongmin]
Based on North Korea's message alone, it is actually not very likely that North Korea will preemptively engage in any threat or provocation. If you look at provocation as an action with the intention of invasion or war as a concept of an operation, you can judge that there is no such intention. However, there may be weapons tests or actions to increase their own power. However, it can be seen as a provocation in a broad sense, but it is said that it will not directly provoke an act of aggression or war in the North Korean message. North Korea talks about two main dimensions. Kim Jong-un has recently used the expression of so-called territorial rating, followed by territorial completion, while talking about these two state theories. Territorial assessment means territorial assessment that if an opponent attacks, he will not only defend it, but also completely conquer it. And then, territorial control means defending the territory.

Rather than the concept of attacking the opponent, it means just defending one's territory, but I think North Korea has an overall defensive offensive in two areas. This means that they are paying great attention to the part that prevents the opponent from having the will to attack by revealing that they are willing to attack. In addition, he is expressing his intention to completely calm down even with nuclear weapons if he makes an actual attack. Therefore, it is not very likely that North Korea will immediately launch military provocations, but there is a possibility that North Korea will act provocative at any time at its own discretion, depending on misconceptions or various circumstances.

[Anchor]
He said that it seems that such a provocation of a weapon test type can be made rather than a form like a military operation. There was a prospect that North Korea, which has insisted on the two-state theory, would establish territorial provisions in the Constitution and delete the expression of unification, but nothing was reported this time. I heard there's a possibility that they postponed this until next year.

[Hongmin]
That's right. Usually, a full revision to this extent, starting with the so-called territorial provisions, and a constitutional revision in which various contents are added or changed, is a very serious revision. However, it takes a considerable period of preparation to do this, but if it was actually revised, the reasons, background, and main contents of the revision will be basically reported in the report of the Supreme People's Assembly held on October 7th and 8th. But there was no such report at all this time. So the part that raises the age of the election age in the education-related part. Then, the issue of raising the working age, which was briefly introduced in two paragraphs, and the rest explained little of the amendment and supplementation of the Constitution. Therefore, it is not very likely that the report was not made despite the fact that there is a significant change in content.

In particular, the Supreme People's Assembly is a legislative act carried out by representatives representing North Korea's formal residents. This usually reports all the changes made. Even when the constitution is changed in the past, the full text of the constitution is not disclosed immediately, but basically, it is usually required to report what content has been revised and by what intention. But there was no such report at all. And in the case of an important constitutional amendment, Kim Jong-un, the chairman of the State Council, usually explains it himself through a municipal speech. That's what I did in 2019. However, this time, Kim Jong-un did not attend at all, and on the opening day of October 7, he scheduled a field guidance for Kim Jong-un's National Defense University. Also, on October 8, Kim Yo-jong will observe a 240mm multiple rocket launcher experiment. So, in fact, Kim Yo-jong, the supreme leader and his confidant, did not attend the Supreme People's Assembly at all.

Considering that, it is highly likely that the constitutional amendment has not been made this time and has been delayed to the next, that is, the 15th term. The reason is that it has become an issue that has too much impact both internally and externally. In North Korea's opinion, the deterrent to use nuclear weapons will be enhanced only when it is divided into two countries. And in order to exclude Korea from the Korean Peninsula issue, which interferes with their national goals in everything and is always against them, we have to go to two countries. We started with this initial goal, but it seems that the impact of this is too great for neighboring countries and it may be difficult to find convincing internally. So, it seems that by building more persuasive and justifying the cause, actually going to the first step of blocking and disconnecting the two Koreas, and finally going to the constitutional amendment, we can mitigate the impact and develop a two-state theory with our own intentions.

[Anchor]
So, considering the justification and impact, it was postponed to the next time without deciding this time. On the other hand, a new defense minister was appointed by the Supreme People's Assembly, and isn't Noh Kwang-cheol the person who led the September 19 military agreement in 2018? Why was this person re-appointed?

[Hongmin]
We need to see various intentions, but Lee Kwang-chul saluted President Trump and his entourage at the U.S.-North Korea summit, and President Trump followed the salute and asked why the president saluted the North Korean general in the U.S. Noh Kwang-cheol is a person who has outstanding expertise in the military industry and military administration. So it was actually the 2018 People's Armed Forces Award. Before becoming Minister of National Defense, he was evaluated as a person who was directly involved in the airborne industry and military administration, especially missile development, to the extent that it was almost impossible to recognize its existence. It can be said that he is a secretive figure and a person who is highly capable and trusted by Kim Jong-un. I was in a different field for a while and I think I was working in secret probably in charge of strategies using nuclear weapons and developing tactics.

So, the reappearance of this person is simply a code change to show some direction around negotiations because the leaders of the two Koreas participated in the North Korea-U.S. summit. Although there are parts that can be read on the surface, in reality, as North Korea's nuclear and missile advance, the mass production system that operates it, the military administration that has to export it, and the military industry are rather in line with his ability. So, in terms of meaning, the issue of producing, deploying, and exporting nuclear weapons in large quantities from the recent nuclear weapons development. Since this issue is the key to North Korea, it seems that we have appointed a bright person in this area. Kang Soon-nam was a person who was far from military industry and military administration, so it is highly likely that he sat this person in line with the current era.

[Anchor]
So, we are concerned about the strategicization and export of nuclear weapons. I took a closer look at the rapidly changing situation on the Korean Peninsula. So far, I've been with Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. Thank you.