North Korea "South Korea infiltrates drones into Pyongyang" vs Joint Chiefs of Staff "Unverifiable"

■ Hosted by: anchor Sung Kyu Sung, anchor of Judaswon
■ Telephone connection: Cho Han-beom, chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification,

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNIGHT] when quoting.


[Anchor]
Following North Korea's claim that a South Korean drone penetrated Pyongyang, it launched a garbage balloon toward the South. The Joint Chiefs of Staff said today that North Korea is again floating an object believed to be a garbage balloon in the South. Considering the wind direction, he explained that the estimated objects of garbage balloons can move to northern Gyeonggi Province and Gangwon Province. This is the 28th time this year that North Korea has boosted trash balloons to the South since late May. Anyway, since North Korea has threatened us, we need to hear more from the experts. He is now a chair researcher at the Institute for Unification. Dr. Cho Han-beom is connected. Doctor, how are you?

[Cho Han-beom]
Hello,

[Anchor]
North Korea has issued a Foreign Ministry statement. If our military is 3, 9, 10 days and 10 days for three days, it is just yesterday. We infiltrated drones into Pyongyang in the late hours of the night. And they sprayed propaganda leaflets against North Korea. How is the doctor grasping the situation?

[Cho Han-beom]
First of all, our authorities and the military are denying it. And in the current situation, our military or authorities are not in a situation to respond. Because North Korea sent a garbage balloon, but it was premised that it crossed the line. That is why damage has occurred so far, but it is not viewed as a situation that has crossed the line.

[Anchor]
We don't really understand when you cross the line. What do you mean when you cross the line?

[Cho Han-beom]
Whether there are casualties or large-scale accidents, it is seen as a red line drawn by our military. So there's still damage, but it's not that bad. So our military is not in a situation to respond to this. And in this case, there are two possibilities because if our military responds, it is highly likely to explicitly state its position differently from that of North Korea. One is that I don't think our military or the authorities are, clearly, in my view. In that sense, there is a possibility that a private organization did it, if so. Another is the possibility of North Korea's own play. There are two at the same time. So, of course, we put weight on the possibility that a private organization did it, but we talked about it when North Korea said it. It's three times on the 3rd, 9th, and 10th, but it's not easy to take pictures like that at that time. And I'm providing clear evidence. Looking at that, we cannot rule out the possibility that it is a self-made play. However, based on the technology of our private organization, we have enough capabilities to spray specific objects in certain areas of Pyongyang with GPS. That's why I want to put more weight on the possibility that private organizations did it, rather than self-composed plays. Of course, 100% I don't think our military or government will do that. That's why we need to leave all possibilities open now. But another thing to note is that in the past, this military... this is a military issue. Then, the General Staff of the People's Army or the Ministry of National Defense of North Korea would have said it, but the Foreign Ministry announced it now. Then this is a different country from you guys. That's why it's diplomatic relations. There are various double tracks. However, what is certain is that there are two possibilities that we did North Korea's own drama. However, there is no reason for our authorities or the military to do so. If you look at it that way, there is a possibility that private organizations would have done it. But you can see it like this. Organizations that send leaflets to North Korea have a bit of technology on the drone side. However, organizations with drone technology are also less capable of spraying leaflets to North Korea. If you look at the screen or picture this time, I showed you the drone capability, but the shear spraying is a little poor.

[Anchor]
There's a picture of the drone on the screen and a video clip is coming out. So the North Korean claim is that they sprayed the propaganda leaflets in Pyongyang, right? I don't know if you saw that picture. You saw

[Cho Han-beom]


[Anchor]
Do you think it's the propaganda we made?

[Cho Han-beom]
Because there are two possibilities. Organizations that professionally distribute propaganda leaflets do not make propaganda leaflets that way. I make something more specialized for North Korea. However, if you look at the contents of the propaganda leaflet I sent now, only a part of it came out, such as comparing food with when I bought the weapon. But professional North Korean organizations make it much more psychologically influential than that. And some of the propaganda leaflets were sprayed, but what the North Korean authorities showed was that the propaganda leaflets were not sprayed and fell off while tied. Then it doesn't work. If it falls like that, it doesn't work.

[Anchor]
But wouldn't they have tied up several of the ones that fell off?

[Cho Han-beom]
I don't think so. If you look at the shape, it's because the plastic box that ties the bellows is broken. And if you look at the bundle, you can't tie it like that. That's not dispersed. So, it's an organization with quite a lot of drone technology, but based on the contents of the leaflets and the spraying technology, I don't think it's a North Korean organization, a professional organization. Of course, it's my evaluation. Therefore, the possibility of North Korea's own creation cannot be ruled out, but there is a possibility that an organization with specialized drone capabilities collaborated with some organizations in terms of some information and freedom of expression in North Korea. But it's hard for me to see it as a professional North Korean organization.

[Anchor]
So, in summary, we can't rule out the possibility that a private organization might have done it or that it was North Korea's own drama. In fact, Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun said that he never did that. Where is the background of North Korea's claim in the middle of the night?

[Cho Han-beom]
Because what North Korea is most afraid of is psychological warfare. So, the hostile two-state theory of the Korean Peninsula that the Kim Jong-un regime claims is not really offensive, but it is impossible to unify themselves and failed in the competition for the regime, so I will just go my own way, My Way. I will maintain Kim Jong Un's dictatorship. It's like this, but what we've created about this is an effort to influence the Republic of Korea in reactionary thought, culture, and repulsion. However, psychological warfare against North Korea and leaflets are fatal to the Kim Jong-un regime, and it is really unimaginable for the Kim Jong-un regime to fall in the center of Pyongyang. So, the South Korean government's position still has a precondition that North Korea crosses the line, but as I said, everyone. There is no reason for our military authorities to do such an unreasonable operation because we are not in a situation where we have crossed the line yet.

[Anchor]
Then, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said they could not confirm whether the North Korean claim was true, and Minister Kim Yong-hyun said it had never been. The nuance is a bit different, right?

[Cho Han-beom]
No, it's the same thing. It's because our military has never done it before. However, if there was a civilian organization, if North Korea captured it with an anti-aircraft network, South Korea would have captured it. So from our military's point of view, we didn't.

[Anchor] From
's point of view, he didn't do it?

[Cho Han-beom]
I don't think I did it for sure. There's no reason to do it. Of course, if North Korea crosses the line later, it will be necessary to do so as a response. However, our military has no reason to do it, and the effect is not so significant in the current situation. So you could have understood that our military was going over. So that's the part. We didn't. But I can't confirm that part. Because if you tell me that, our military's secrets will be transferred. So, we also checked North Korea's poor anti-aircraft network, but there's no way our military couldn't have checked that.

[Anchor]
Our military said it didn't and said there was a possibility of a private organization.

[Cho Han-beom]
That's quite a possibility.

[Anchor]
Or you mentioned North Korea's own drama.

[Cho Han-beom]
There's a possibility.

[Anchor]
Can this be confirmed later?

[Cho Han-beom]
Once the groups say we've done it, it'll be confirmed. However, there are a number of things that I can guess, but this is an invasion of airspace under international law. Because in our Constitution, North Korea is our land, but unfortunately, it is a separate country where the UN intervened under international law. So if you go into international law... that's why I don't think our military would do such a thing.

[Anchor]
Anyway, from the perspective of our military or government, if a private organization did that.

[Cho Han-beom]
Then the story gets complicated.

[Anchor]
It must be quite a embarrassing position.

[Cho Han-beom]
Because it is a separate country that has joined the UN, it can be an invasion of airspace. Then there could be a number of problems under international law. Because balloons don't have an engine, they are instruments. However, in the case of unmanned aerial vehicles, there is an engine, so this can be considered an invasion of airspace. Because in the case of balloons, the problem of airspace invasion can be bypassed because they move according to the airflow, but in this case, the engine deliberately invades the airspace, so if the group says we did it, the story becomes a little complicated. Of course, we'll have to see you in the future.I don't think it's possible that the group would say I did it if our government investigation came out or if North Korea claimed it, because it's not profitable at the moment. But when we do it, the story gets complicated.

[Anchor]
I see. That's all for today. I talked to Dr. Cho Han-beom, a chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. Doctor, thank you for talking today.