- Seoul Apartments Build Up Sale in Buyer-Seller 'Better' and Price Quays
- Real Estate Watchdog Due to Loan Regulations, Will Continue until End of Year
- Gap Investment Shrinkens Due to Expansion of Regulations on Jeonse Loans, Lease → Half-Jeonse Monthly Rent Movement
- Do you have any plans to buy a house? Trading volume indicators should be noted
- November, FOMC and Monetary Policy Board rate cut? the property market will be near-zero
■ Broadcast: YTN Radio FM 94.5 (09:00-10:00)
■ Host: Reporter Cho Tae-hyun
■ Air date: November 4, 2024 (Monday)
■ Talk: Kim Hyo-sun, Senior Member of NH Nonghyup Real Estate
- HUG debt surges, will warranty be cut? "If you have a plan for a lease on a deposit basis, you should hurry"
- Dunchon Jugong, which is the 'biggest reconstruction since Dangun', delayed moving in to regulations on lease on a deposit basis loans
* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.
◆ Reporter Cho Tae-hyun (hereinafter referred to as Cho Tae-hyun): A hot area, a hot issue. It's time for "How about 'Hot People'". Today's real estate news will be pointed out with Kim Hyo-sun, a senior member of NH Nonghyup Real Estate. Is the commissioner out?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun, Senior Member of NH Nonghyup Real Estate (hereinafter referred to as Kim Hyo-sun): Yes, hello.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: I'd like to first point out the situation of a real estate agent. Recently, I think I see a lot of cases where real estate agents close their offices. In fact, the number of licensed real estate offices closing their businesses has increased and the number of applicants for the qualification exam has decreased, so it should be considered that it is directly affected by the real estate market situation, right?
◇ [Kim Hyo-sun] That's right. Since the profit of real estate agents itself is not a structure that can earn a lot of money by making a lot of market profits, but a structure that generates more profit as the transaction volume increases. In a situation where the transaction volume has decreased a lot except for Seoul, as in recent years, the number of businesses closing are increasing, and those preparing for the application qualification exam are not applying.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Only Seoul transactions are maintained, and in a way, it seems to show the current trend of the real estate market. We have September housing statistics. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said that the transaction volume of apartments in Seoul has also decreased significantly compared to the previous month. How much has it been reduced?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: The number of apartments in Seoul continued to increase, and in July, there were more than 9,000 transactions. About 7,600 transactions were made in August and 4,900 cases in September, respectively, continuing to decline 80% and 65% as of last month.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Is there any reason why the transaction volume has decreased like this?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: Since September, the government has been taking a wait-and-see stance due to loan regulations. As a result, sales continue to increase, but since there is no transaction, sales increase and transaction volume decreases.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: So in general now, as loan regulations are affecting, transactions are decreasing. But I don't think the price will go that well if the transaction decreases. How is the price flow?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: Recently, the Seoul housing market has also seen its price increase continuously shrink. The reduction has continued since mid-October. Even if you look at the centers of Seoul, the rise continues to shrink except for areas with good cost-effectiveness, but no region has turned into a decline yet. The actual transaction itself is not happening much, but the asking price is also changing into a market where there is a lot of temperature difference between the seller and the buyer, which does not continue to fall.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Why does this market appear? What's the background?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: First of all, the housing market in Seoul was overheated continuously in a few areas. Also, in the first half of this year, the number of sales is increasing, but there was a time when the transaction was not possible. So, the transaction is made only when the price between the seller and the buyer is matched, but in the second and third quarters of this year, the number of transactions increased because buyers expected the price to rise further in some regions. Since recently, buyers have started regulating loans, so they think the price could fall further if they wait a little longer, while sellers expect it to rise again next year. In addition, as interest rates begin to cut, the period of holding out in the era of high-interest rates has passed, so the volume of trading is shrinking as more sellers say they do not need to sell at a low price.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Then, all buyers and sellers are holding out, showing a wait-and-see trend. Do I have to understand like this?
◇ [Kim Hyo-sun] Yes, that's right.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Okay. It's going up now, but it's not that high, but transactions are decreasing and asking prices are not falling. If so, when loan regulations are as strong as now on how housing prices will move in the future, should we see that this wait-and-see attitude will continue for a longer time in the real estate market?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: I think this wait-and-see attitude will continue at least until the end of the year. Recently, the market for appeals has continued for 22 years and 23 years and this year. Loan regulations were eased slightly in the first half of the year, but after the third quarter, this pattern of tightening very strongly has been repeated. As a result, as transactions are concentrated when loans are released, regions with good cost-effectiveness or good location are expected to make profits repeatedly, and if loans are regulated, sellers will endure again, and buyers will continue to wait and see until the end of the year. Next year, Seoul-oriented markets, which are now in short supply, are expected to rise once again, while areas such as provinces are expected to continue to remain stable and stable in the long run.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Is it stable in a good way or sluggish in a bad way?
◇ [Kim Hyo-sun] It's a period of stagnation.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: There is a high possibility that the filing will continue. Polarization is likely to continue. I see. Then this time, let's leave the trading market and go to the jeonse market. It is said that the transaction volume of jeonse was the lowest in seven years. It's the transaction volume in Seoul, but the price of jeonse has also decreased, so what do you think is the reason for this?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: Yes, the price of lease on a deposit basis has continued to rise, but the increase has been decreasing since mid-October. In September, not only the trading market but also jeonse loans are regulated. So, there are situations where demand for those who used to invest in the gap is shrinking a little due to the regulation of jeonse loans. And there were a lot of transactions mainly in Gangdong-gu and Songpa-gu, but large-scale apartment complexes are about to move in in November, so that's right. It seems that there will be demand waiting. And finally, as jeonse prices continue to rise sharply, some of them seem to be shifting toward so-called half-rental monthly rent.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Okay. Let's listen to it up to here. I think I need to organize this part, but end-users who plan to buy their own houses will be interested in jeonse sales. By now, please give me some advice on what data should I approach the market by referring to it.
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: When it comes to buying my own house, you're actually going to wait and see to buy the house right away, but you've been in a bit of a mess recently, so you need to pay attention to the transaction volume. If the trading volume drops sharply like now, not all sellers, but there may be cases where the asking price comes down. So look at the volume of transactions in these areas, and the most important thing is that if you actually buy it, you just have to look at the price of one house that you're going to buy, not the price of the whole house, and you're going to pick up a few apartment complexes within the possible amount, including the possible loans. After that, it is necessary for Seoul to continue to check the asking price and sometimes low-priced items come out, so I think it will be necessary for Seoul to wait for such items to buy them.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: There is a need to focus on the volume of transactions. You mentioned it, but monetary policy is another variable. Recently, President Lee Chang-yong said, "Rose, there's a lot of craze right now." Apartments, he said he was worried that housing prices would rise due to this song, showing that he was very conscious of real estate prices in monetary policy, but the Bank of Korea said it had no plans to cut interest rates for the time being. Then, looking at the situation so far, is there a possibility that the opinion of additional cuts will be strengthened?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: In fact, interest rates are one of the hardest variables to predict, but despite the fact that the base rate has been cut this time, the loan rate is actually rising slightly. In the first half of the year, the loan interest rate was cut close to the base rate, so the atmosphere that such sheltered parts do not actually affect much now continues. The housing market is stabilizing, but household debt is still a bit burdensome, and in the second half of the year, household debt can increase significantly if you get a loan from Dunchon Jugong.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: It's going to be incredible.
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: That's a prediction that even if you take out about 300 million loans per household now, the total loan size will increase very significantly. So, I think there will be a burden of lowering the cut because of these parts. However, when looking at the entire market across the country, as I said earlier, the downturn continues except for some regions, so I expect that it may go back to the cut while looking at the market conditions.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Okay. But under the current situation, can the Bank of Korea directly affect the real estate market if it cuts another 25bp?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: I don't think that's going to be easy. The second stage of DSR regulation is also being implemented. Next year, it will be implemented up to the third stage, and the bank continues to manage household debt on its own, so even if it is cut, it is difficult for all the cuts to be reflected when the borrower actually takes out a loan. It may vary depending on the creditworthiness and the amount of loans available is very limited now, so it will be difficult for interest rates to affect it as much as before. This is because there are more loan restrictions besides that.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: In the current situation, it may not have that much of an impact. The U.S. FOMC meeting is scheduled for November 7th. The Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled for November 28 in Korea, so it would be better to take a look at these areas. Let's also talk about jeonse loans. I'm sure there are people who need to get a lease on a deposit basis loan, but you said that lease on a deposit basis loans are becoming more difficult. However, the financial situation of the Housing and Urban Guarantee Corporation HUG is also affecting. What's the situation?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: Yes, when you get a lease on a deposit basis loan, you will get a loan with a guarantee from the Korea Housing Finance Corporation, Seoul Guarantee Insurance, or the HUG you just mentioned. Due to the lease fraud that started last year, HUG has now paid the lease deposit instead of the lessor, but the number of cases where they did not get it back from the landlord has increased a lot. That's called subrogation reimbursement. It was about 3 trillion won last year, but it is predicted to exceed 4 trillion won this year. That's why the financial burden has increased. Although it is now supporting the stabilization of housing for the common people, it has a very direct impact on the increase in household debt because hundreds of millions of won of loans can be made with guarantees. So, if HUG's capital does not increase now by the end of the year, there is a concern that the new guarantee itself will be disrupted from next year.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: I said I would issue bonds, but this has also been put on hold and it's not easy, but if this situation is repeated, wouldn't it affect those who planned the lease on a deposit basis? How should they respond?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: When you rent a lease, you actually take out a lot of loans, but if the institution that guarantees you like this itself has poor finances, you can be a little picky about your creditworthiness and the interest rate itself can increase. So, the jeonse market in Seoul and these areas is still on the rise, and there is a possibility that the jeonse market will be more unstable next year due to the migration measures of the first new city, so housing costs are likely to be burdensome. The condition of the house where you live on a lease can change, for example, the location can be moved to the outskirts, or the situation can be changed to a half-lease. In fact, if you sign a lease as soon as possible, you can use the right to renew the contract for four years, so I think it would be more advantageous for those who have plans to move as soon as possible.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: I think you'd better hurry up a little bit. Like the title of our segment, we'll also look at the hot place. This is the place where we talked about it earlier. Dunchon Jugong Olympic Park Foreon. I think there's another noise here. This time, the government said that raising the threshold for jeonse loans is affecting the preparation of the balance, what is the situation?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: Yes, it's Dunchon Jugong Apartment, which has always been an issue.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: I haven't seen you go quietly. This is
◇ [Kim Hyo-sun] That's right. Yes, moving in will begin soon from November 27th. Recently, there has been an atmosphere in which the government continues to regulate loans due to household debt problems, so usually banks competitively lower interest rates when making balance group loans, but now there is an atmosphere in which they do not compete for balance group loans. Therefore, loans are set at higher-than-expected interest rates, and there are recent regulations on jeonse loans, so it is difficult to make conditional jeonse loans. So I think it's leading to an atmosphere that we should postpone moving in until next year.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: I heard that landscaping work is also suspended and there is a problem like this, so is there a possibility that the moving-in date will be delayed?
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: Moving in itself seems highly likely to be from the end of November or early December, but you can move in only after you prepare the balance for each borrower. Recently, however, it's a little disadvantageous to get a loan, so there may be people waiting until next year, and there are people who have planned the balance with the deposit on the lease. Such people will receive this conditional lease on a deposit basis, and only one of the five major banks is currently making conditional loans. So, it's becoming more difficult for those who take out leases to get loans than expected, so both sales and lease loans are at a disadvantage contrary to expectations, so there seems to be more atmosphere to just postpone it until next year.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Then what if I'm the one who needs to move into Dunchon Jugong Apartment, Olympic Park Foreon, but it's getting hard to get a loan like this, what should I do?
◇ [Kim Hyo-sun] It's a very difficult situation. In fact, the balance preparation plan should have been made clear from the past, but it's a difficult situation because the conditions for these loans are a little more difficult than you think. However, debt may be reset again when the new year begins, so if possible, there may be a way to pay the balance by lowering the deposit quickly, or there may be some people who have to watch their faces a little by next year.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Okay. That doesn't mean I signed a contract here. I just heard it as an example. Lastly, please make a comment on the real estate market this week.
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: As I said earlier, the whole country continues to be difficult, but in the case of Seoul, the situation has changed after some of them were overheated. I'd like to say, 'Seoul real estate like the fall foliage of the pond'. This year, I heard that the autumn leaves are not the same as before because the heat wave has been so long and suddenly the cold has come. In fact, when it comes to moving season, the real estate market is in good condition, but when people take a lot of vacations, the real estate market is overheated, but recently, there are some markets that don't know what to do. So this year, in fact, these situations are bound to continue in the second half of the year, so I recommend ways to watch for a while and make a promise for next year while managing loans and such.
◆ Cho Tae-hyun: Okay. Let me conclude with your poetic words. So far, we have pointed out various issues in the real estate market with Kim Hyo-sun, a senior member of NH Nonghyup Real Estate. Thank you for talking today.
◇ Kim Hyo-sun: Yes, thank you.
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