[News Fighting] Kim Hyun-wook "Trump's 'American First' will be promoted faster than the first period"

[YTN Radio News Fighting Bae Seunghee]
□ Broadcasting: FM 94.5 (07:15 - 09:00)
□ Broadcast date and time: November 7, 2024 (Thursday)
□ Host: Attorney Bae Seung-hee
□ Castor: Kim Hyun-wook, Director of Sejong Institute

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.

[YTN Radio <News Fighting, Bae Seunghee]> Please reveal that it's about the interview.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: I'm Bae Seung-hee, the news on my way to work. The second part starts. Former President Trump, who put forth America First, retook the White House for the first time in four years. We will talk about what kind of situation we will face in Korea, which has been cooperating with the United States in the field of economic security. Are you here?

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: Yes, yes. Hello.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: Hello. Contrary to the initial prediction that the first match will take place, former President Trump has won the game early on. Did you predict this outcome?

◇Kim Hyun-wook: I thought Trump would have the upper hand now. This time, of course, the election was so rollercoaster that it was difficult to predict, for example, there was a TV debate between Biden and Trump, and Trump was shot in the ear again, and the change of candidates and the TV debate between Harris and Trump were so dramatic that it was hard to predict. And since the polling agencies also released different results and the policy-related confrontation was quite strong, it was a little difficult to see how the pattern unfolded, but I think there were a lot of votes toward Trump at the end.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: Yes. Former President Trump's support was strong, especially in competing stocks. You said you were driven to the last minute, but what kind of food and economic problems were more important?

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: Yes, as you said, there were several issues. For example, there were abortion rights, women's abortion rights issues, immigration policies, and foreign policies like the war in Ukraine in the Middle East, but economic issues still seemed to be important and continued to be important until the end. The Biden administration has controlled prices, so the employment rate has been good, and the interest rate has been lowered, and the policy has continued to be implemented. In that sense, cities such as Nevada and Las Vegas have traditionally been Democratic, but they have a service industry that is greatly affected by economic conditions. Las Vegas? In the case of such a city, it should be said that the result was that it turned to a close trend this time.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: You mentioned the price. Former President Trump has provoked opposition from voters suffering from high prices, saying the U.S. economy is the worst ever. Is the U.S. economy really that hard? After COVID-19.

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: No, the actual U.S. economic situation itself is not that bad. Currently, only prices are quite high, and anyway, economic fundamentals and corporate competitiveness are working well. The employment rate is also quite high. And the actual minimum wage has risen considerably depending on the price, and the problem is that those people who work on the minimum wage are mostly from some fairly low-income people of color coming from abroad, and the middle and low-income people in the U.S. who are underlying them are not actually quite as well-paid and prices are quite high, so the very rich and the very poor working class from abroad are still satisfied to some extent, but the so-called white people of the middle class who support Trump in between still have low wages, high prices and considerably high prices. It's a state of heightened dissatisfaction.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: I see. Vice President Harris. I just made a speech accepting the defeat of the presidential election. What do you expect from now on?

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: I don't know. It's not easy for me to predict what Harris will do next, so shouldn't we look at four years from now? But four years later, there's still a very powerful candidate named Nikki Haley, and now Harris' biggest blind spot this time was that she wasn't ready for policy. Yes, he did better than Trump in the TV debate, but what he showed at the time was that part of Trump's weaknesses, and he had a CNN town hall meeting in Pennsylvania the week before, and he showed so clearly that he was not prepared for policy at the time. Why not be prepared to dispel some of the controversies about the qualifications of a candidate in the people? Maybe those are the most important things to run for president next time.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: Yeah, is it called a hurricane there last time too? It was evaluated that the response was not good even when it was very chaotic.

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: Especially in North Carolina, it was heavily affected by hurricanes. Of course, North Carolina is traditionally a Republican-centered mainstream. However, the gap was so close that it was not so big this time because of the influx of a large number of highly educated residents with Democratic tendencies, and Trump also said a lot of bitter things about North Carolina, which was very damaged by the hurricane. While spreading a lot of fake news, actual North Carolina governors did not answer Biden's calls and communicate at all even when politicians called the White House. The White House did not pay much attention to the victims of these hurricanes. It doesn't make sense to me, but I think Trump's real-life, laughing camala and sleepy Biden were strategies that made the public feel certain.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: I see. I think it's very different from the polls. So I asked if there would be things like Shy Trump and Hidden Harris that were not caught in the polls, what do you think? Was this hidden Harris no real person?

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: I know. I've been thinking a lot about what kind of person it is because there's a lot of talk about Shy Trump or Hidden Harris, but I think Hidden Harris was definitely there. So, if you look at the way Trump and Harris supporters showed up to the last minute in the United States, I think there were not so many shy Trumps like in the past because Trump supporters have been walking around and campaigning very openly without being shy as before, but now Hidden Harris is not sure. I heard that Harris supporters' campaigning style was carried out in a way that encouraged some relatives or friends to secretly shoot Harris, rather than going around as noisy as Trump supporters. So, rather than some potion ratio between Shy Trump and Hidden Harris, there were not many supporters divided between the election methods or tendencies of some of those people, such as male to female. So I think these are the stories that were probably made in consideration of those parts.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: I see. America First, this time. The U.S., which succeeded in making the U.S. successful again with "Make America Great" again, has emerged right now. Should we continue to push for America First again this time?

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: The difference between the first and second Trumps is that since the first was Trump's first presidential term, he had some doubts about whether his thoughts really reflected reality well, but that's gone now. Now that he is no longer able to serve as president for another four years after serving as a single four-year term, he is likely to push ahead with the America First policy more actively than the first term. So it's likely that some of his aides around him or other personnel appointments are consistent with his or her thoughts, unlike the first period. Also, since the Senate House of Representatives is almost brought by Republicans right now, I believe that Trump's policy over the past four years is likely to be pushed faster and more decisive than the first Trump.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: I see. Then, is it a good thing or a bad thing that Korea, which is highly dependent on trade in its relationship with Korea, won the election of Trump?

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: Anyway, the trade surplus is high not only for Korea but also for the United States because Trump says he will impose 10% universal tariffs on all countries. It has been rising, but Korea is not the only country that has this high trade surplus with the U.S. So, although these are a little unfair, Korea is not the only country subject to universal tariffs, so almost all countries and Japan are also. Japan also decided to increase the share of defense costs to 2%, but there is a situation that may need to be raised further. This is not just a problem facing Korea, and since I experienced it in the first term, I think it will be possible to overcome it if we create a more calm strategic response scenario in responding to Trump from a transactional point of view that emphasizes some economic money.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: Yes. But we've already reached a defense deal, so will former President Trump demand this defense deal again?

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: Since he said it himself, he'll ask for renegotiation. And because the defense contribution agreement is not a matter of congressional approval in the United States, it's such an agreement at the discretion of the president. So, since 2026 starts now, 2025 is another negotiation period, so Trump said to increase it by five times last time, but there was a case where the agreement was not signed and it was transferred to the Biden administration, so this time there is a possibility that he will push harder than before.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: Yes. In this regard, what do you think about the possibility of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea?

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: I disagree about that part, but if there was a slight change in Trump's thinking in the 1st and 2nd periods, he really ignored the alliance system and went to America First in the 1st period. So, I thought that why the United States should play the role of a police officer in the world and not bring it all to the United States, but I think I changed my mind a little bit for two reasons. First, the security landscape and the global security landscape have changed so badly. Since there are various challenging forces in the Middle East, China, and North Korea in the war in Ukraine, the Trump administration must respond to these challenging forces through this global alliance system, so it is not easy to carry out the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Korea so easily. Of course, there are such bills that nail the number of U.S. troops in Korea in Congress, but instead, you pay more for maintaining the alliance system, not the U.S., and secondly, the U.S. has to bear all the costs because when the U.S. troops enter the U.S., they become U.S. troops on the mainland of the U.S., so this is a very expensive disposition that Trump cannot tolerate even if it is calculated arithmetically.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: I see. During such a campaign, Trump showed off his bromance with Chairman Kim Jong-un and Kim Jong-un. During his time in office, he had three summits with Kim Jong-un. How do you see North Korea-US relations?

◇Kim Hyun-wook: Trump's purpose is to manage various challenging forces. So, they asked what if China started a war in the Taiwan Strait, but when I asked them that, Biden said he would respond to it, but Trump said he would impose 200% of tariffs. So, Trump's strategy is to manage it rather than directly participating in actual international conflicts, so I think Trump's chances of dialogue with Kim Jong-un are very high, and it seems to be another matter of how much Trump can be satisfied with. Because in the case of Kim Jong-un, he has been talking about North Korea as a nuclear power for a few years now, and he has made any laws on it, and then he wants to be recognized by Trump that North Korea is a nuclear power. I think the most important hurdle will be whether Trump will officially tolerate it or officially tolerate North Korea as a nuclear power. Because if North Korea is allowed to be a nuclear power, North Korea and the United States will criticize it as a bad deal, and there will be dominoes in various regions to become nuclear power, so I think those parts will probably be the biggest hurdles in the North Korea-U.S. dialogue.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: Do you expect the possibility of lifting sanctions on North Korea and making such a deal on the premise of possessing nuclear weapons?

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: So it doesn't seem that easy to officially recognize North Korea as a nuclear power at what level it will proceed. Then, in the long run, why not leave the North's denuclearization policy alone and make such an intermediate deal in the process that, for example, gives some compensation at the freezing level, such as not making useless provocations or developing additional ICBMs or nuclear weapons? However, even in this case, from South Korea's point of view, Trump's actual deal to North Korea is quite sloppy, because in the past, inspectors entered North Korea only in the freezing stage, inspected everything, proved it, and went through that stage, but there is a high possibility that they will just do it without such a step. In that case, there could be another conflict between the Korean government and the U.S. government, so those are very difficult challenges that we have to solve when Trump comes in now.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: I see. It could be a bit different from Korea. This is how you look at it. If former President Trump becomes president, he will end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. I also said this. Will we be able to end these 2 wars in Ukraine and the Middle East as soon as possible?

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: That's Trump's idea now, but we'll see how quickly this will be possible. Because the end of the war in Ukraine was made by Keith Kellogg underneath him and reported to Trump, the end of the war seems to be somewhat ready, and if you look at the end of the war, the problem is that Ukraine will not restore the territory it has taken and end the war. The question is how much Ukraine and NATO countries will tolerate this. And if we end the war in that situation, maybe Russia will continue to build on this and continue to increase some of its influence in Europe. I think I'm a little worried about how permanent the previous proposal, such as a stopgap measure, could have an impact.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: Yes. I see. Our presidential office is. He said he would provide an opportunity for communication between President Yoon and the President of the United States. In the meantime, I've been in communication with President Biden, but if he becomes President Trump this time, how will the relationship continue?

◇Kim Hyun-wook: First of all, what is President-elect Trump's strong touch diplomacy with the leader? So if you like it personally, you like it a lot. Since he is a strongman and has a holder and this style, he values such personal friendship that he is quite fond of leaders of that style. I think it is necessary for President Yoon to go to the U.S. and hold a summit with Trump as soon as possible. I think it will be a strong foundation for him to make a deal on various Trump requirements and what we ask for after the summit. But the problem is that Trump is good at golf, but I don't know how good President Yoon is at golf. Anyway, the summit will be held early, so we have to prepare a lot before going there.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: I think President Trump will probably evaluate former President Moon Jae In and President Yoon Suk Yeol.

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: President Moon Jae In and President Yoon Suk Yeol have different styles, so it remains to be seen who is more Trump-like, but the style with strong leadership seems to have the potential to meet Trump and solve the problem.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: I see. I see. Thank you for your words today.

◇ Kim Hyun-wook: Yes, thank you.

◆ Bae Seung-hee: I was Kim Hyun-wook, director of Sejong Institute.