Ukra, Attacks Atax...Putin's 'nuclear threat' counters

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor
■ Starring: Moon Sung-mook, Director of the Unification Strategy Center of the National Institute for Strategic Studies

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNOW] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Ukrainian forces have launched U.S.-backed long-range missile 'Athax' into mainland Russia. Russian President Putin countered with a nuclear threat. Let me point out with Moon Sung-mook, director of the Unification Strategy Center of the National Institute for Strategic Studies. Welcome.

[Moon Sung-mook]
How are you?

[Anchor]
I ended up shooting a long-range missile. I fired an Ae-Tax missile, which area did it fall from?

[Moon Sung-mook]
It's called Bryansk. Geographically, it is located 380 km southwest of Moscow. If you look at the map, this is north of Kursk. It's not that far from Kursk.

[Anchor]
Kursk is the area where North Korean troops were sent.

[Moon Sung-mook]
Kursk is probably the most dangerous place because President Biden initially allowed it to be used in a difficult decision. Isn't it now known that the North Korean military is trying to participate in the war to drive out the Ukrainian army occupying Kursk by being subordinated to the Russian army? That's why I predicted that it would be used there.Ma fired the other way. So in a way...

[Anchor]
It's not aimed at Kursk, is it?

[Moon Sung-mook]
Not for now. It doesn't target Moscow directly, it's a bit far from there.Ma is relatively close to Moscow, and now if you listen to the announcement from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, it's called the 1046th Armory in Karatsev, Bryansk. If you hit the armory, you'll cut off the continuous supply of weapons and equipment anyway. So, I think the fact that the first attack immediately after being allowed to use Attax hit major military facilities sends a lot of messages to Russia.

[Anchor]
First of all, most of the Russian side claims that it has been shot down and claims that there is not much damage, but has this missile launch hit Russia? How much do you think it is?

[Moon Sung-mook]
If we believe the Russian claim at face value, there is a difficult aspect. Russia's claim means that five shots were completely intercepted and one shot was damaged, so it was not a big threat. We don't do much harm. If so, there is no reason to threaten Ukraine by shaking up nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, President Putin signed a presidential decree that now approves the revised nuclear doctrine shortly after President Biden allowed the use of Atax. Just by looking at this itself, it can be seen as a disproving that it is a considerable threat to Russia. So, not only Atax, but also long-range storm shadows and air-to-ground missiles provided by Britain and France can be used, so the U.S. and Western countries have been asked to refrain from using weapons that strike deep into the Russian mainland as much as possible for fear of escalation, but they have clearly said the reason they allowed this time. It is the North Korean military's support for the Russian military. It is participation in the war of aggression. I said clearly that it was a response to that, and the U.S. State Department said so. The moment the North Korean military participates in the war of aggression, it will be a legitimate target of attack.

[Anchor]
It started there first.

[Moon Sung-mook]
That's why Putin is responsible. I think from the reaction of Putin and the Kremlin, it is clearly a threat to Russia, and I think we should look at it like this.

[Anchor]
First of all, we're easing the conditions of using nuclear weapons, but do you think Putin's mention of nuclear weapons is just a bluff, or do you really think he has it out of all the cards?

[Moon Sung-mook]
It's been 1,000 days since Putin invaded Ukraine yesterday. It's been almost three years. It's likely to end in a week or 10 days, but the period has been incredibly long, and Putin is eventually driven to the corner, so he reached out to Kim Jong-un, the world's most bully, and got help. And in fact, Putin has continued to talk about nuclear cards at every major opportunity. I kept talking about the possibility of using nuclear weapons. So, it can be seen as a critical crisis again this time. This is because President Trump was elected and is set to launch his second term on January 20 next year, and he will end the war within 24 hours. And it's a great opportunity for Putin because he made the comments with such nuances that he is likely to stop supporting Ukraine. Judging that it is an opportunity to end the war under the most favorable conditions, he is focusing all his capabilities on the attack, and President Biden poured cold water on it. Because of this situation, Putin took out the nuclear card and adjusted the doctrine. I don't think it's easy to use it. Putin also has to be prepared for that.

[Anchor]
Anyway, from President Biden's point of view, isn't there a high possibility that he will think that he should provide various support for the rest of the year when his term is just around the corner?

[Moon Sung-mook]
It's like this. The Biden administration valued the universal values, human rights, and freedom of mankind as important as the national interest of the United States. We have worked together with allies and countries that share values and have somehow managed to do so for the past four years. That's why Putin's invasion of Ukraine is clearly a criminal offense in a way that violates human rights and kills innocent people. This criminal act must be prevented in some way with the international community. I think it was the consistent position of President Biden and the government that at least Putin should not win. As expected, Ukraine did well. If you look at what you've been pulling so far. Ukraine is only a quarter of Russia's land and has a very small population. But what if the U.S. or the West stops supporting it? It's hard to bear. So in the end, Putin's war of aggression ends in victory and sets a really bad precedent for the international community. That's why Biden seems to have made this decision with such a strong will to probably adjust the situation.

[Anchor]
From the perspective of President-elect Trump, he should take responsibility if the war is waged like this, but why do he work? I think it's in this position. The difference between Biden and Trump seems to be quite intense in the United States.

[Moon Sung-mook]
There will also be mixed thoughts among the American people. If you look at it now, it's Trump's confidant, Michael Waltz, who was recently named national security adviser, said that. Allowing missile strikes on the Russian mainland is once again raising tensions. He said that and criticized Richard Grenell, a former German ambassador for foreign affairs and security, saying, "It feels like he's starting a new war." However, Trump and Biden have different ideas, so in a way, the U.S. position is being divided in front of us.

[Anchor]
From President Zelensky's point of view, he is in a very crisis right now, I think we can see it like this. Regarding the size of North Korean troops, he said that it could increase to 100,000.

[Moon Sung-mook]
I can't confirm if you were thinking of putting in 100,000 people at once.I don't know how long the war will continue anyway.Ma will have to make up for it if there is a loss in the troops that have been deployed, and then the number of dispatched personnel will have to be changed for another year or six months. If that happens, I think there is a good chance that the number of years will be 100,000.

[Anchor]
Can North Korea afford that?

[Moon Sung-mook]
Of course, we're only sending people now, isn't all support from Russia? Since there are rumors that equipment, weapons, military uniforms, and even how much each person will be provided, Kim Jong-un is not mentioning anything at all, right?

[Anchor]
That's 10,000 people, so if it's possible, it's impossible if it increases.

[Moon Sung-mook]
Even if it's 10,000 now, I think there's a possibility that North Korea's interior will be very shaken if there's a full-fledged loss of life. As you said, increasing the number of people by 50,000 or 100,000 is a huge burden and risk for Kim Jong-un.

[Anchor]
The Intelligence Committee reported on the relevant information today, and it was released, and Foreign Minister Choi Sun-hee visited Russia, right? Foreign Minister Choi Sun-hee may have visited and talked about Kim Jong-un's visit to Russia. Do you think it's a possibility?

[Moon Sung-mook]
I think there's a possibility. First of all, from Kim Jong-un's point of view, he is trying to make a blood alliance with Russia somehow. That's why he sent a lot of ammunition, missiles, and troops, even though he was a very dangerous and gambling-like decision. In any case, from Kim Jong-un's point of view, it seems that establishing a strong alliance with Russia can be crucial to maintaining his regime and eventually continuing the Kim Jong-un hereditary system.

In that sense, we met twice in a row in Russia now, and Putin visited North Korea last June, so Putin also invited Kim Jong-un, didn't he? That's why the order of going is right. So I don't know when that will be.Ma said there was a possibility that Kim Jong Un would visit Moscow next year, and Choi Sun-hee would visit Russia in that regard. At first, he said he had no plans to meet Putin. But in the end, we met with a delay of a day or two. I think there is a possibility that they met and conveyed Kim Jong-un's intention, and that they received such a definite answer.

[Anchor]
However, if you look at the recent trend of relations between North Korea and Russia, it is very close and there is a high possibility that the size of the dispatch will increase. If the number of troops increases like this, it's going to be an escalation, but if Trump takes power, he said he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, but isn't it a little conflicting?

[Moon Sung-mook]
That's how we should look at it. So, continuing to increase the number of people and actively helping Putin means that Trump should focus all his capabilities to fight a ceasefire or an end to the war under the most favorable conditions. In that sense, Kim Jong-un is helping Putin, and from Kim Jong-un's point of view, if Putin ends the war in an advantageous position, he contributed greatly to the end of the war, and if so, Putin can find it difficult to reject Kim Jong-un's request. I'm doing this with that calculation, but I don't know at this time whether it can be used as that calculation. From that point of view, I think that.

No matter how much President-elect Trump gets into power, he'll finish it in 24 hours, how easy would that be? Armistice negotiations and ceasefire negotiations may be prolonged because the situation is completely different from what you say. Some people seem to have that kind of ceasefire in mind, like the armistice agreement signed in Korea in 1953, but from Zelensky's point of view, or NATO countries, neighboring Poland or Ukraine, they don't want it to end in that state. That's why, as you said, Kim Jong-un's calculation will be right. Rather, I can tell you that if Putin ends up at a disadvantage, Kim Jong-un could also be in a very difficult situation.

[Anchor]
Although Trump is famous for his high rate of achieving his pledges, many people seem to wonder whether he will be able to keep this promise in 24 hours. Until now, I was Moon Sung-mook, the head of the Unification Strategy Center. Thank you.