■ Host: Anchor Jeong Ji-woong
■ Starring: Kim Yeol-soo, Director of Security Strategy at the Korea Institute for Military Studies
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[Anchor]
Ask a professional about a hot issue. It's an issue call. A foreign report said that the transition team of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is considering direct talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.Trump is seeking new diplomatic efforts to reduce the risk of armed conflict with North Korea.President-elect Trump, who showed off his friendship with Chairman Kim in preparation for the presidential election, aims to find a new diplomatic solution to reduce conflicts with North Korea. Attention is focusing on whether North Korea will respond or not. Some analysts say that as North Korea stipulates its nuclear possession in the Constitution and raises the level of provocations, it has become more difficult to restore relations between the U.S. and North Korea than in 2018. Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Office of the Korea Institute for Military Studies, is connected. The manager is here.
[Kim Yeolsoo]
Hello?
[Anchor]
Reports say Trump is considering direct talks with Kim Jong Un amid escalating Ukraine-Russia war. What's the background of this comment?
[Kim Yeolsoo]
In fact, if you look at Trump's remarks on the election campaign, it should be said that the summit between the U.S. and North Korea has already been predicted. And I thought that the American summit that Alex Wong would have named as deputy national security adviser was much more within sight. Alex Wong is a person who was deeply involved in negotiating with North Korea during the Singapore talks and the Hanoi talks. It's about why you're reviewing the conversation in person, but I think there are two main things. North Korea fired Hwasong-17 and 18, followed by Hwasong-19 in effect five days before the election, didn't it?
And since I conducted the 7th nuclear test, I'm doing it because I didn't do it. So, because North Korea's nuclear and missile threats are becoming too advanced, there is an idea that the problem should be solved through dialogue. Second, isn't North Korea sending troops in the form of Russian mercenaries? But this is a burden for Trump, who has an old idea. So, I think that this request for direct dialogue was made in the sense of trying to find a solution with North Korea's nuclear and missile issues as a priority and North Korea's dispatch to Russia as a second problem.
[Anchor]
Chairman Kim said this not long ago. I've been as far as I can go. I said something a little skeptical. The biggest question is whether North Korea will respond. Will they react?
[Kim Yeolsoo]
That's right. In fact, how North Korea will respond to this will be decisive. Last Thursday, on November 21, Kim Jong-un gave a speech at the 2024 Armed Exhibition on Defense Development. That's when I say this. I've been as far as I can go to negotiations with the United States. However, as a result, the great powers do not have the will to coexist with us, but rather have a thorough position of power, and the aggressive and hostile policy toward Korea remains unchanged. I was skeptical about this. Then why is it not important for Kim Jong-un to show such skepticism? I think the trauma of the breakdown of the Hanoi talks in June 2019 is very deep.
The reason is that we took a train from Pyongyang to Hanoi for 60 hours to have a meeting in Hanoi.
But the talks broke down. I think he suffered an indelible wound to his leadership. If I understand Kim Jong-un's position and there will be another U.S. summit, Kim Jong-un will directly negotiate in a top-down form unless he receives clear concessions in advance, I think so. The top-down format is very much President Trump's preferred method. It's a top-down form to meet the leaders and solve a problem, not a bottom-up. If you do that, wouldn't Kim Jong-un be able to achieve his desired goal if he did it wrong? If that happens, I think working-level officials will visit North Korea several times and hold meetings, and this will turn into a summit. This, after all, is unlikely to happen in such a short time as Trump thinks. However, I think there is still a possibility of talks by the second half of next year.
[Anchor]
If North American dialogue resumes in any format, isn't it unclear if our position can be properly reflected? So, is there a way for us to take the initiative in dialogue in the face of North Korea's escalating armed provocations?
[Kim Yeolsoo]
Rather than taking the initiative, I think it's important that we don't be left out here. The reason is because if you look back on 2018 and 2019, after the Panmunjom summit between the two Koreas, there was the Singapore summit, and then the Pyongyang summit and the Hanoi summit went on like this. In this way, it is best to have an inter-Korean summit before the U.S.-North Korea summit. The Minister of Unification also said this two weeks ago. I said that Washington and Pyongyang would not meet so easily except Seoul. So in my opinion, the best is the inter-Korean summit. Nevertheless, if Kim Jong Un or Trump only emphasizes direct dialogue, shouldn't we consider the worst case scenario and prepare for it? If so, it is necessary to make such efforts to ensure that the national security of Korea is not compromised and then go to the U.S.-North Korea summit after thorough policy cooperation with the U.S. is made.
[Anchor]
We will see if North Korea will respond to the news of Trump's review of direct dialogue. I was with Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Division of the Korea Institute for Military Studies. Thank you.
[Kim Yeolsoo]
Thank you.
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