[New Square 10] North Korea declares 'strengthening the border'...U.S. expert "Korea is more dangerous than ever"

■ Host: Park Seok-won Anchor
■ Starring: Researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, Yangwook

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 10AM] when quoting.

[Anchor]
North Korea cuts roads and rail links between the two Koreas.We have declared the construction of a new flower. Let me find out what North Korea's intentions are. Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, is connected. You're out, right? North Korea's fortification work, specifically what and how are you going to fortify it?

[Yang Wook]
We need to think about what scope we can fortify. Fortification means eventually building an obstacle that can block both sides from moving and then building trenches or firing positions. As you know, in the DMZ area, North Korea has already deployed a large number of guard posts and guard posts. In the end, if it is an area that needs additional fortification, it is a place that was previously connected, such as the Gyeongui Line Railway. I think it means blocking these areas with certainty, installing obstacles, and then building a shooting position.

[Anchor]
However, this fortification and disconnection work was carried out between the two Koreas, and North Korea also notified the U.S. military that it was targeting us. What's the intention of this?

[Yang Wook]
Basically, from North Korea's point of view, the parties to the armistice are the United States and North Korea. So in the end, as you can probably see this time, the actual related contents and notifications were sent to the UN company. It was done to the United States, but it was basically delivered to the UN company that manages the armistice system. You can look at it like this.

[Anchor]
From the perspective of North Korea, haven't we already been cutting off to some extent since the beginning of this year? But what do you think is the reason for making this official now?

[Yang Wook]
There are many reasons.Ma is like this. As you know, this is December 30th last year, so Kim Jong-un speaks at the 9th meeting of the 8th party conference in North Korea. Relations between the two countries, not relations aimed at unification. While talking about the relationship between the two countries at war, there have been some movements since February last year. For example, installing arrowheads, landmines, or removing railways on the East Sea Line.Or, as you may remember, North Korea was rarely active during the summer period, such as building a new barrier in some open areas.

The reason is basically that the North Korean military is not just conducting military operations, but also mobilizing a lot of other construction work inside, and even farming to make a living on its own. And as you know, there was a huge flood in North Korea at the end of July. As various situations were added, Kim Jong-un's order to sever the relationship between the two countries was not sufficiently implemented. After Chuseok, these activities will begin in earnest because the manpower is available. And of course, it can be assessed that these actions took place in the process of implementing Kim Jong-un's instructions in line with the constitutional amendment.

[Anchor]
Aren't these strategies for fortifying and isolating North Korea a step toward becoming more isolated, in a way, by becoming more solidified by social and economic isolation?

[Yang Wook]
In fact, North Korea is already almost isolated in the face of international sanctions.North Korea has something to trust. No matter how severe the international sanctions are, in the end, China is drilling through these sanctions and delivering many things to North Korea anyway. As you know, relations between North Korea and Russia became sharply close in September and October of last year. As it became official, especially as Russia, which needs North Korean munitions due to the war in Ukraine, began to improve relations, I don't think North Korea will feel pressured about this.

On the contrary, North Korea's concern is that the North-South disconnection is emphasized by the fact that the system's durability, or confidence in continuing the Kim Jong-un-centered dictatorship, is relatively far away, so it can be seen that the Korean language, for example, is connected to the Republic of Korea and the so-called South Korean language expressed by North Korea, and then the culture is transmitted through dramas and things like this, and they are more afraid of these things.

[Anchor]
On the contrary, there is a side of fortification in terms of more fear of the collapse of the system, but haven't you continued to create a cause for provocation after North Korea's declaration of fortification and by talking about the concept of the border? As a result, U.S. experts say Korea is more dangerous than ever. What do you think of the crisis theory on the Korean Peninsula when you are suggesting this opinion?

[Yang Wook]
There have been risks and crises. As you know, there are more than 5,000 to 6,000 cases of North Korea violating such a basic armistice agreement, if you count all of them. These threats have existed all along. On the contrary, if you look at it now, you can see that North Korea continues to send garbage balloons and continue the intensity of threats and such. In a way, from the perspective of North Korea, there may be a burden of increasing the military threat under the current situation. North Korea is now spending a lot of its capabilities exporting weapons to Russia, that is, weapons necessary for the war in Ukraine, especially selling its own wartime stockpile to Russia.

From the perspective of North Korea, it seems that tensions should be raised and maintained, but conflicts here should be avoided as much as possible. Of course, there's a regime change in the United States or the next presidential election in the United States.E. After that, it is certainly necessary to increase the crisis for a new negotiating phase, but if the crisis becomes irreversible because it will result in human casualties, the possibility of negotiation is completely out of the water, so it can be seen that we are paying attention for now.

[Anchor]
Last week, when the North's Supreme People's Assembly was discussing the revision of the constitution, our observation was that the unification expression would be deleted or territorial regulations would be newly established, but there was no mention from North Korea. What's wrong with this?

[Yang Wook]
Rather than the revision not happening, North Korea puts a lot of emphasis on context when delivering such a message. So, for example, as the Constitution sees the entire Korean Peninsula as territory, if North Korea needs to change its territory in that way or if it needs to be stipulated, there should be a narrative, presentation, and flow accordingly. So there is a possibility that it will gradually be disclosed as it builds up such things. Let me tell you that we need to be vigilant and careful not to allow this to be linked to North Korea's military provocations or anything like that.

[Anchor]
Earlier, the level of North Korea's provocations will also be adjusted to some extent because the U.S. presidential election is ahead, and you observed this, but there is also a difference between Harris and Trump's approach to North Korea. In particular, while talking over the phone with former President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un recently, Harris said that the crisis with North Korea will escalate if he is elected, what do you think of former President Trump's approach to North Korea?

[Yang Wook]
First of all, President Trump himself has had a summit with North Korea in considerable political value. Therefore, we are always concerned about Trump's premature nuclear negotiations with North Korea when he is elected. In other words, we are very concerned that the negotiations will be led by acknowledging North Korea's nuclear weapons. However, Trump is relatively ignorant of international politics. Then, even if Kim Jong-un showed a favorable attitude, it is basically against the U.S. intention to recognize North Korea's nuclear weapons in the U.S. national interest itself.

That was one of the reasons for the no-deal in the line of the last Hanoi meeting, so obviously a new summit with Kim Jong-un could be a push in Trump's presidency.Ma can still keep the minimum line. What we should be concerned about is that Trump's election calls for more security burdens, especially on South Korea, and for example, he can no longer provide more security support to South Korea by talking about reducing U.S. forces in South Korea.

[Anchor]
Harris is a person who describes Kim Jong-un as a dictator and a murderer. They also defined it like this. How do you view Harris' North Korea policy?

[Yang Wook]
Harris is basically following the most orthodox diplomatic and security line of the United States. In fact, there is basically skepticism about dictators in the United States, whether Democrats or Republicans. In particular, the Democratic Party of Korea is reluctant to accept Kim Jong-un as an official national leader in accordance with the party's platform of pursuing democratic values or political correctness. In other words, I don't think it will be much different from what the Biden administration looks like now. Of course, there are pros and cons to this. Basically, Korea's defense efforts and continuous support and support for these areas are the advantages.In fact, the limitation is that there is little possibility of direct dialogue between North Korea and the United States.

[Anchor]
Lastly, let's briefly talk about the U.S. presidential election. If it's an unexpected variable in October, less than a month later, please point out what it will be and whether it can be a variable for North Korea's provocations.

[Yang Wook]
Contrary to our hopes, it is not easy for North Korea's actions themselves to directly affect the U.S. presidential election, contrary to many people's expectations. Because there are quite a few cases where the American people actually don't know where North Korea is. I don't think it's easy to have a direct impact unless there's such an incident as the death of the American people or soldiers due to North Korea's actions. Several polls now suggest Harris is relatively dominant.As you know well, the U.S. electoral system is so unique that it will eventually determine how much support it can get in competing states. In fact, I don't think there are many experts who can guarantee that anyone will win.

[Anchor]
I see. Let's stop here. So far, I've been with Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Thank you.