The polarization of housing prices in Seoul is clear...What's the impact of reducing stepping-stone loans?

■ Host: Anchor Park Seok-won and anchor Jo Soo-hyun
■ Starring: Park Won-gap, KB Kookmin Bank Senior Specialist for Real Estate

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The rise in housing prices is on the decline in the aftermath of the government's loan regulations. Polarization is becoming clear, with reported prices still continuing to rise in areas with high preference. Meanwhile, there is growing opposition from end users to the reduction of the stepping stone loan limit. In particular, confusion among prospective residents in the metropolitan area is growing. Let's talk about real estate news with Park Won-gap, senior member of KB Kookmin Bank's real estate committee. Welcome. Let's start with the rise. House prices continue to rise in Seoul, but do you think the rise has decreased?

[Park Won-gap]
That's right. So the rate of increase is slowing down. You can look at it like this. In August and September, when there was a lot, it rose to 0.2% in Seoul on a weekly basis. But recently, it's been lowered, so the rate of increase slowed by 0.08% last week, you can see it like this. It's similar to the sale and lease. Perhaps the biggest reason is that buyers have taken a wait-and-see stance due to severe loan regulations despite the cut in the benchmark interest rate.

[Anchor]
The trading volume is also decreasing. The increase in housing prices has decreased.Ma is said to be declining not only in sales but also in demand for lease on a deposit basis, but it can be seen that the Seoul housing market continues to stagnate overall, right?

[Park Won-gap]
Rather than a recession, it has entered an adjustment phase, because I see it like this. There are two reasons for that. As you said, the volume of transactions has plummeted. Last July was the peak transaction volume this year, but it exceeded 9,000 at the time. Since 2006, the average transaction volume in Seoul has been about 6000. However, the number of cases reached 9,000 is a little explosive in demand for small purchases, so you can see it like this. However, the statistics for September came out, but there are less than 3,000 cases. It's been cut into a third. This, after all, shows the psychology of consumers. Trading volume is mostly the most accurate barometer of whether consumers are willing to buy a home or actually act.

I'm sure you've heard a lot about how transaction volume often moves before price, but I'm telling you that this transaction volume is the wind gauge of the market. There are several indicators of the market. However, this is a sample statistic that the Korea Real Estate Agency's index rose 0.08% earlier. But there's also another actual transaction price index. This is similar to the market price, but among the actual transaction price indices, there is a provisional index. This came out as the provisional index for September. Seoul has already entered a downward trend with minus 0.47%.


0.01, 0.02 In a slightly weak situation, you can change your direction, but wouldn't it be difficult to change your direction if it reached minus 0.47 percent? So it's probably a little similar to last year and this year, but it's already entered the adjustment phase. You can look at it like this. Last year, September was the peak. So I got a steep adjustment for about three months. It rose 13% until September and then fell 3% for three months until the end of the year. Then what will happen this year? It's so déjà vu from last year. But in my opinion, we won't get a worse adjustment than last year. There are three reasons for that.

First of all, the bond market is stable. That's why we're in the process of lowering interest rates. Second, there seems to be a stronger perception of supply instability this year than last year. And you can see the psychology of consumers, and the Bank of Korea announces that it is CSI for housing price outlook. It's looking at whether housing prices will rise or fall within a year. If it goes over 100, it's expected to go up, but this is 116 this October. But last year, it was 108. There is a little more expectation than then, but there is a possibility that it will enter a correction phase because there is such a heavy burden of loan regulation in a way.

However, in the case of provinces, housing prices are rather cheap. So, since interest rate cuts are more effective than loan regulations, shouldn't we look at it as a way to strengthen the bottom a little more? In fact, the provisional index of the actual transaction price of the Korea Real Estate Agency in September was positive for the provinces.

[Anchor]
I'm trying to press down on loan regulations little by little, but I don't think there's any impact on Gangnam, seeing the reported price. The polarization is getting worse.

[Park Won-gap]
If you look at the overall flow, you can think of it as going together. In fact, if you look at the growth rate of apartments in Seoul in the fourth week of October, it is about 0.18 and 0.14 in Gangnam and Seocho. However, Geumcheon-gu and Nowon-gu have a slight increase rate. But you have to look at this from two aspects. First of all, the current demand for housing is mainly driven by the demand for gap investment or the demand for changing the settlement space, in a way, rather than the movement of the 2030 households. And since people in their 30s and 40s are leading the way, they are showing a slightly different aspect from the past. Another thing that we often talk about in real estate during the adjustment period is reservoir theory.

Where do you drain when the water drains into the reservoir? It usually falls off the edge. So, it reflects some of the characteristics of the housing market that are adjusted from the outside first, you can see it like this. But the important thing is that there is no such thing as a rise alone. There is no ascension to eternal solitude. But it's only a little less falling off, so I'm looking at it right now.

[Anchor]
In the midst of this, the age group leading housing transactions has changed from 30s to 40s. Since July, people in their 40s have started to take up a high proportion, and the gap is getting wider?

[Park Won-gap]
That's right. This is also the effect of loan regulation. According to the nationwide apartment transaction volume in September, people in their 40s surpassed those in their 30s in six months with 26.9%. As you said, Seoul has already had a lot of trading volume in its 40s since July. First of all, it regulates loans, so people in their 30s don't have a lot of money. And it's hard to invest in a gap. As a result, people in their 40s, 50s, and 60s with extra money are becoming more active in entering the market. I think it's this result. If this trend continues, I think it will take some time for people in their 30s to turn around in their 40s.

[Anchor]
Why is the number of malicious unsold housing increasing? So it's a new house, but it's an empty house, right? They're not coming in. Why is that?

[Park Won-gap]
In the end, as you said, it's an apartment with the lights turned off. In fact, according to statistics from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport in September, there were about 17,000 unsold and malicious unsold houses after completion, but it increased by nearly 5% in a month. Why did you do that, I think there was something that remained unsold in the past. The number of unsold houses is decreasing. What happens over time? We're moving in. So in the end, it became an apartment with the lights turned off. You can look at it like this. As a result, probably construction companies in Seoul and the metropolitan area have increased inflation to some extent, so to speak, construction costs have risen a lot.

I was able to pass this on to the sale price, but since the provinces are passed on, it becomes unsold, and as time passes, it eventually becomes a malicious unsold structure. In fact, the metropolitan area has increased slightly, but it has definitely increased a lot in the provinces.

[Anchor]
Let's also point out the news about stepping-stone loans. The government announced a temporary suspension and then announced that it would reduce the limit on stepping stone loans around the Seoul metropolitan area. I think there will be a lot of confusion among those who are planning to move in the metropolitan area right now, so what do you think?

[Park Won-gap]
In my opinion, housing prices are high in Gangnam. In the end, I think there will be difficulties for people who want to buy their own houses in the metropolitan area or outside Seoul. Because there is a limit to the amount of stepping-stone loans. The general loan is 500 million won. Next, the newlyweds' loan is 600 million won, and there is a special newborn loan. This is 900 million. But the average price of apartments in Seoul is 1.2 billion won. So, I think that people living in the outskirts of Seoul rather than in the center of Seoul, or those who want to buy a house, will be affected a little.

[Anchor]
However, I said that I would reduce stepping-stone loans and lower the threshold for special newborn loans a little, but in a way, I think some things are lowered and some things are tightened, causing confusion.

[Park Won-gap]
That's right. I think it's a question of where to focus on the two national tasks of soft landing household loans and overcoming low birthrates. The total fertility rate in Korea is 0.72. Isn't this related to the existence of the country? So, in a way, when implementing national policy, negative and positive things inevitably exist. In the end, it's a choice, but I think that even if we reduce other things, we shouldn't miss special newborn loans, especially those that encourage birth.

[Anchor]
The jeonse guarantee system is also being exposed between the government ministries and financial authorities, and it is a housing city guarantee corporation that recently guarantees jeonse loans. It is said that Hug has started issuing bonds to expand capital, but the schedule has been suspended as financial authorities put the brakes on it, so how should we analyze this?

[Park Won-gap]
First of all, I think it's a temporary suspension. Hug tried to issue about 700 billion new capital securities, but the capital expansion was put on hold. But there have been a lot of tinned jeonse. The financial structure has deteriorated, so can we continue to issue this? Last year, Hug incurred an operating loss of about 4 trillion won. And isn't the interest rate a little high? The interest rate is now expected to offer about 4.1%, but if Hug, a public company, issues interest rates like this, other insurance companies should offer higher rates.

Then, there are aspects such as increasing market interest rates as the effect of building the bond market. This is why I think they are putting the brakes on this time, but I think if we don't expand it this time, shouldn't we eventually return the lease deposit return insurance next year? Since the brakes are put on it, I think we will probably find a smooth agreement between the financial authorities and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport.

[Anchor]
What stands out in the real estate market recently is that the officetel market is wriggling, what is this for?

[Park Won-gap]
There are two reasons for this. One is that apartment prices go up. Then, from the perspective of the homeless, apartments are expensive, so there is a possibility that they will eventually move toward officetels as alternative demand. In fact, until August this year, officetel transactions in Seoul increased by about 17% compared to the same period last year. Interest rates have recently fallen again. Then retired people think of buying an officetel and receiving monthly rent. Then, don't these profitable real estate decide whether to invest or not by comparing market interest rates and interest rates? That's why the rate of return has increased a little recently. If you look at the KB market price, the rental rate of Seoul officetel is about 3.31%. It's a little better than a deposit. As a result, I think we can see that demand has been introduced in a way.

[Anchor]
Then, what should I be careful about when investing in officetels?

[Park Won-gap]
Recently, various benefits have been introduced for officetels. If you buy a small new officetel with a dedicated area of 60 square meters or less by the end of 2027, acquisition tax, transfer tax, and comprehensive real estate tax will be reduced. There are advantages like that, but in my opinion, the price doesn't increase well when I see people selling officetels. So, if interest rates are lowered in the future, the rate of return will improve a little more, but it needs to be lowered a little more than such high expectations. And you may not be able to sell it later. I think it would be better to check and approach these areas of refundability.

[Anchor]
I see. Let's stop here. So far, I have been with KB Kookmin Bank's senior real estate commissioner, Park Won-gap. Thank you.