[NewsNow] Israel-Hezbollah 'all-out war' concerns...Is there a possibility of a ceasefire?

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor, Jung Ji-woong Anchor
■ Starring: Baek Seung-hoon, full-time researcher at the Middle East Research Institute of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNOW] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Lebanon's armed faction Hezbollah has launched ballistic missiles into central Israel, raising fears of an all-out war. There are also observations that a ground war in Lebanon is imminent, but the U.S. denies it.

Let me hear the expert's explanation. We invited Baek Seung-hoon, a full-time researcher at the Middle East Research Institute of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. Welcome.

[Baek Seung Hoon]
Hello,

[Anchor]
Hezbollah fought back. It was aimed at Mossad, Israel's overseas intelligence agency, Mossad headquarters, and there was an analysis that it retaliated with a beep explosion.

[Baek Seung Hoon]
is correct. September 18th is the so-called Gold Apollo, a Taiwanese-made pipi. And Icom planted a bomb on a Japanese radio and carried out a terrorist attack from Israel's point of view. So for that... of course, in the Gold Apollo, in Taiwan and Icom, they said that they didn't care about their supplies, so it's now presumed that Israel did it. But I didn't reveal it, so I don't have any hard evidence, but as a retaliatory attack on it, Hezbollah fired a ballistic missile called Kader into its headquarters. Launched at Mossar headquarters near Tel Aviv.

[Anchor]
Israel will not stop now. It is said that the pattern of attack has also entered a new stage of war, so what stage do you mean it has entered?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
We need to filter out the investigation a little bit. Because Netanyahu said it too. We say that the war against Hezbollah is about Israel's military operation in Lebanon, separating Hezbollah from Hamas, but we're not talking about the destruction of Hezbollah or an all-out war. So, it's true that we've entered a new phase, and the battle against Hezbollah is getting more full-fledged, but we have to be a little more careful to see this as some kind of all-out war, Lebanon and Israel after Israel-Hamas.

[Anchor]
Anyway, as you said, the important thing now is to separate Hezbollah and Hamas from Israel's perspective, but for that to happen, Hezbollah must step down, and in short, it is only possible to give in. Do you think such a scenario is possible if the current Israeli attack continues?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
I think it's going to be a little difficult, but anyway, there's the so-called Latani River in southern Lebanon called the Israel Latani River. So they say we're going to attack until we take Hezbollah up there. That way, from Israel's point of view, many Israelis in northern Israel are now evacuating because the attacks continue. So you can see it as a military operation now because you have to push Hezbollah's influence a little bit north to normalize the people of Israel who have been evacuated and then to destroy Hamas. But of course, there's this. It is necessary for Israel to push out Hezbollah to some extent in order to destroy Hamas, but there is always a risk that if the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel intensifies like this, it could become another war and another big escalation. So it is also true that all experts now see Israel and Hezbollah as an all-out war is still to be seen, but now the uncertainty has increased.

[Anchor]
If we go into an all-out war, what is the specific movement of the start of the all-out war?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
Haven't Hezbollah, for example, now fired ballistic missiles at Tel Aviv, Israel? Of course, I only shot one shot, but now to attack Mossad, I said I attacked them because they attacked the pager and the walkie-talkie, but this is what I'm worried about. In Tel Aviv, there are only 400,000 people living in the city itself, including the satellite city and its surrounding areas, and the population of Israel is about 9 million, with 4.15 million people living there. That's why if Hezbollah's attack on Tel Aviv intensifies and damages to civilians are greatly damaged, Israel has no choice but to intervene more strongly, and that's the most dangerous situation because it's a precursor to the escalation that the anchor said.

[Anchor]
If it really becomes a reality, does it really get out of hand?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
is correct. Because Hezbollah's firing of Kater missiles at Tel Aviv is a retaliatory attack against Mossad in a way, but it's also a warning. We are not like Hamas. Hezbollah has more powerful weapons than Hamas. Hamas does not have so-called ballistic missiles. However, Hezbollah is believed to have seven to nine times more weapons than Hamas in terms of missile power. So what I'm showing you now is Israel, look. We can shoot ballistic missiles, and of course, we intercepted them with Israel's missile defense system, but if we really get into an all-out war and fly 3,000 missiles at once, and thousands of missiles at once, it's called the Iron Dome, and the five-fold and three-fold missile system, depending on how you see it. No matter how firmly the missile system is protected, the damage to Israel's civilians will be out of control if only one or two shots are fired, so it also shows a threat to it. So the funny thing is that Israel and Hamas don't call it war. We have entered a new phase. I'm trying to avoid talking about this as a war. So I'm analyzing that their inner thoughts are there.

[Anchor]
You're fighting against each other, aren't you?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
That's a big aspect.

[Anchor]
The U.S. and France have offered to cease fire for 21 days, is there any chance this will work?

[Baek Seung Hoon]
But this is the problem. So, I think Hezbollah and Israel are more likely to cease fire than Hamas and Israel do, but the problem is this. As I've said before, the reason why Israel is now attacking Hezbollah so strongly is because with Israel starting this war, its military operational goals were twofold. The destruction of Hamas, the rescue of hostages. But Hamas is not even being destroyed. However, in order to destroy Hamas, we need to break the connection between Hezbollah and Hamas to some extent so that we can destroy Hamas. The reason why Hamas successfully launched its military operation on October 7 last year, which is called the "flood of evil," is that it would not have succeeded in such an attack without Hezbollah-backed weapons systems and information. That's why Israel also knows.

In order to really destroy and end Hamas, there is a high probability that Israel will immediately enter a ceasefire if Israel judges that Hamas and Hezbollah have been cut off to some extent because it has to sort out some of Hezbollah and break its influence. The reason why a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is impossible is because Israel does not consider Hamas to be a negotiating partner after this war. I'll get rid of them and go. That's why it's more difficult to negotiate there, but I think negotiations between Hezbollah and Israel will be possible at any time if the conditions I've just mentioned fit a little.

[Anchor]
In any case, another variable in the current edition is whether Iran will actively participate in the war, and some say that Iran is refraining from escalating now because it is afraid that former President Trump will be elected in the presidential election.
[Baek Seung Hoon]
I think that's a factor, but a bigger factor than that is because the president of Iran is now a Fezeshikian, a reformist progressive, because we never thought that Fezeshikian would be elected. However, the reason he was elected was that he had appeal to the people. What he did when he was a presidential campaign is that the biggest security against Iran is economic sanctions. Not Israel or the United States, but economic sanctions are destroying our security, so I won the presidential election under the banner that I will be able to lift these sanctions and engage in normal economic activities. In this case, if Israel intervenes with Hezbollah and goes to war with Israel, then the U.S. is stubbornly refusing to do so in trying to lift economic sanctions. The EU, so-called France and Germany, this side, yes, the Iran Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement was broken because President Trump did it so unilaterally, so there are possibilities to lift economic sanctions and especially with the EU while feeling sorry for it, but if Iran participates in the war with Hezbollah and becomes a war, the EU will not be able to help Iran with economic sanctions. And then President Pejeshikyan will be able to do nothing in that respect, the only economic sanctions that he can do now that he can differentiate himself from other candidates. Then, he is not a conservative right-wing president, and that is the only agenda that the reform progressive can do, but he is taking a very cautious step in his current intervention because it disappears. So, as you said, there are aspects that Trump does not do because he has an advantage, but rather than that variable, I think the variable I just mentioned works that way, which does not involve Iran more.

[Anchor]
Former President Trump's camp says he was also threatened with assassination.

[Baek Seung Hoon]
But I'd like to say this. I'm saying that Iran is trying to assassinate, but as Iran said now, don't you say that Hezbollah officially asked for help when it attacked this time, but refused? Then, from Iran's point of view, they don't have much benefit from this war, but Trump's assassination is a bigger provocation and escalation than that. So of course, I think luxury people can say that, but that's a political rhetoric to appeal to President Trump that I'm more afraid of Iran, or to vote more, that's a little bit far from the truth.

[Anchor]
Anyway, finally, will the words of the United States work? The whole world sees America as a kind of savior.

[Baek Seung Hoon]
It's the only hope. But the problem is that the presidential election is less than a month away. And then one of the things I was most worried about this time is that the U.S. said it would intervene in the event of a war with Hezbollah, but it would just send a little bit of troops. It's not doing things like this, that it would send a nuclear carrier like it used to. But my concern is that if the U.S. doesn't want to intervene now and doesn't want to contain it, it could send the wrong signal, send the wrong signal, Israel attacks more aggressively, and Hezbollah can make a mistake about the U.S. not now and we can use more ballistic missiles and things like that to attack. That's the biggest concern because I'm worried that it can be such an opportunity.

[Anchor]
There seems to be a lot of this view that it is hard to have much hope because President Biden is Netanyahu, who does not listen to him even if he shouts.

Until now, Baek Seung-hoon was a full-time researcher at the Middle East Research Institute at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. Thank you.