Putin signs North Korea-Russia treaty...What about the Korean Peninsula after Trump's election?

■ Host: Anchor Kim Youngsoo Kim and anchor Han Yeon-hee
■ Starring: Yang Wook, researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies,

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Since former President Trump's election, the international situation on the Korean Peninsula and around the world has predicted considerable changes. Russian President Putin has signed a North Korea-Russia treaty that raises relations between North Korea and Russia to the level of a military alliance.

[Anchor]
It is said that the North Korean troops dispatched to the battle of Ukraine have begun to prepare for the actual battle. Along with the news of North Korea and Russia's close military ties, we will also analyze the situation on the Korean Peninsula, which has been complicated by Trump's election. Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, is here. Welcome.

[Anchor]
First of all, regarding North Korea's provocation, we have recently continued GPS disturbance provocations in the West Sea, and our fishing boats are also suffering damage. Is there any military damage?

[Yang Wook]
It should be considered that there is little damage to the county. The GPS method you use is different. The military uses such frequencies and communication methods with anti-jamming performance in response to jamming, so there is not much damage to North Korea's wide-area GPS attacks. Even if there's one in the bay, it's too easy to find the source if it's actually on display. So it has the advantage of being able to defeat the origin at once. However, I can tell you that the problem is that the Korean people should wear this damage themselves.

[Anchor]
There was no major provocation after the ICBM provocation, but now the GPS provocation has resumed, is there a reason?

[Yang Wook]
In fact, it is not easy for North Korea to make a major provocation right now. As you know, we think direct military provocations are probably difficult at a time when we send our own even wartime stockpiles to the war in Ukraine, and we take out almost 10,000 of our own troops and put them into the war in Ukraine. In the end, we are making asymmetrical and low-intensity provocations such as garbage balloon provocation and GPS provocation. GPS is deeply involved in our daily lives, and for example, it is a very dangerous provocation that can relate to the survival of fishing boats and even cause aircraft accidents.

So it can be seen as a problem in itself to leave this alone. When it first started, it was affected by 2020, but by 2016, there were nearly 1,800 base stations. There was a time when almost 1,000 aircraft and then 750 ships were directly affected.

So if North Korea recognizes that it can do this as a big provocation and uses it all the time, for example, it may not be able to use Incheon International Airport at all. So I can tell you that this is not something to look down on.

[Anchor]
I think we need to respond, too. What kind of response are you preparing?

[Yang Wook]
In fact, there is a limit to the military's direct response. Because originally, the best way to attack a GPS like this is to strike the origin.

[Anchor]
It's a situation where you can't hit the origin, right?

[Yang Wook]
Of course. That's why there's a limit to responding. I think we should find other soft-kill ways to neutralize the interference of radio waves over there.

[Anchor]
Let's look at the close relationship between North Korea and Russia. President Putin visited Pyongyang last June. That's when we signed a military treaty. The military treaty was signed through the Russian parliament and now the final approval was signed. What kind of treaty is it?

[Yang Wook]
As far as we know, it's a comprehensive strategic partnership, a treaty that defines it. There have been evaluations that this treaty itself does not amount to an alliance.Ma stipulates that, at least in terms of the military, especially in Article 4, for example, if one party is invaded and is in a state of war, the other entity provides military and other aid by any means it possesses.

[Anchor]
Is it like a mutual defense treaty?

[Yang Wook]
It's a phrase that corresponds to a mutual defense treaty. It was observed that there are not many cases where this phrase is included in a comprehensive strategic partner, but this was entered at the strong request of North Korea. Next, Russia and North Korea are using this situation with each other. It should be considered that they are using it because their interests match.

In fact, there's this aspect. North Korea then Russia has been hiding North Korea's participation in the war. I've been denying it, and I've seen a slight change in airflow. Especially at the time this very treaty passes through the State Duma, or the House of Representatives, Russia's position might be. Putin's position is something that can happen between our two countries. This is how we start to change our stance, and North Korea is still denying it.In the end, there may be room for this to be a step toward revealing the participation in the war at some point.

[Anchor]
There is room for use as an excuse to legalize on this basis.

[Yang Wook]
That's right. In fact, Putin has already talked about it several times. They're arguing that this is done legally between North Korea and Russia, that there's nothing wrong with international law.

[Anchor]
If so, North Korea and Russia's military closeness, joint training, and various steps will be strengthened in the future.

[Yang Wook]
Of course. Basically, Russia is probably putting almost all of its capabilities into the war, so there may be limits to, for example, conducting joint training, relatively. Nevertheless, for example, we are exporting a lot of weapons to North Korea's Russia.

As a counter benefit to that, Russia's transfer of military technology to North Korea or the transfer of high-tech equipment are completely promised to each other. The red line we are thinking of is long gone.
It is reasonable to think that it has already passed due to North Korea's decision to participate in the war.

[Anchor]
Then, we will also look at the situation of the North Korean military dispatched, and I heard that there were casualties, but have they not been put into war in earnest yet? What is the matter now?

[Yang Wook]
Overall, the troop movement seems to be confirmed, at least. So I think I can see the troops continuing to be added to the front. However, didn't you say it was a survivor's testimony last time? Even if it is true, it is likely that it is not a full-fledged input to the main university, but a level of foresight to examine the situation in advance.

In other words, as I have said several times on other occasions, I can tell you that it is reasonable to say that North Korea was already involved in the war in Ukraine through this form of instructors or instructors even before the so-called large-scale participation in the war. In that context, it's continued, but it doesn't appear to be a situation yet where a large number of troops are deployed and fighting in the Kursk region that Ukraine and the U.S. are pointing out.

[Anchor]
There are rumors that the North Korean military will send about 10,000 troops by the end of this year, but do you think there is a more possibility of sending additional troops?

[Yang Wook]
I have enough. According to local intelligence, there was also such intelligence that up to 88,000 people were recently talked about. Regardless of whether this intelligence is right or wrong, first of all, even if about 10,000 troops are put in, take into account the loss of battle. And then we don't know how long this will last, but it won't be easy to stay more than six to nine months in a combat zone.

If that's the case, then supplementation of troops, and then, for example, if it works on the Kursk front, Russia will try to secure as much territory as possible before the ceasefire, and then I think there's a good chance that we'll put additional North Korean troops in fierce areas in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

Considering this, it's not impossible to say at least 10,000 people in the future, twice the number of people who went now, and from four to eight times as I said earlier. [Anchor] Our position has changed as North Korea has sent military troops into Ukraine, and President Yoon Suk Yeol recently made a comment on Ukraine's arms aid at a press conference.

He said he'd support defensive weapons first. Is this a change from the previous position of considering supporting lethal weapons? What level of defense is it? [Yang Wook] I can tell you that it came out in the context of a review of weapons of death support. In fact, all weapons have both sides of defense and attack.

But it's like this, for example, to describe it as a defense. a missile-defensive, intercepting missile For example, missile defense systems and things like that. Things like Heavenly Palace 2 have been developed and produced in Korea, and as you know, they are sold in many countries from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

In the case of such a system, it saves the lives of citizens there by intercepting incoming ballistic missiles and self-destructive drones, not by directly attacking and killing the operator. If so, overall, direct conflict with Russia is relatively avoided, so even in that context, it can be sold as a weapon system aimed at saving lives, not killing lives. I think it's going to be this logic.


This is a kind of warning to Russia, but it's our own kind of red line not to cooperate with North Korea further or do things like this, but as I said earlier, this red line has already been crossed. How should I solve this part and support it? It is true of the international cause of protecting a democracy, but it is the government's task to do this in a way that is in line with the national interests of the Republic of Korea.

[Anchor]
We will continue to analyze the impact of Trump's election on the Korean Peninsula and the international situation. Will former President Trump meet with Chairman Kim Jong-un after former President Trump is elected? There is a high interest in whether the third North Korea-US summit will be held, what do you think?

[Yang Wook]
There are a lot of challenges for the United States right now. So, in the past, the North Korean issue could have become an issue because there were not many tasks that could be solved at the time, and especially because the South Korean government itself handed over the negotiations to the United States as if leaving full power, but the situation is different now.

In particular, from the perspective of the United States, as you have said many times in our news, if what Trump said is elected, I will end the war with Ukraine within 24 hours after taking office. I will also end the Hamas-Israel war. Because the only thing that I have to focus on is that this has crossed some lines because the actual U.S. taxes and the U.S. budget are being used to support the two wars.

There are problems that need to be solved. And the Israel-Hamas war is also very important, and the Biden administration has, in a way, downplayed the Middle East.Ma never does Trump. Then, in the end, we have to contain Iran, not just the U.S. doing it directly, but leaving it up to Israel, but working with Saudi Arabia and Israel to maintain Middle East order in this region. For example, things like this are also very important. There's still going to be trade wars against China, these things that need to be dragged even harder. There are a lot of tasks.

[Anchor]
There are too many tasks to meet with Chairman Kim Jong-un again and negotiate with North Korea on various nuclear issues, do you see it like this?

[Yang Wook]
Yes, I think it's basically a lot. So I'm not saying that I won't talk at all or I won't try, but the existing conditions have changed, and the ranking itself is bound to be a long time later.

[Anchor]
Even if it is pushed down to the lower ranks, Chairman Kim Jong-un will not be able to stay still, and if that happens, it seems that he will continue to provoke a lot. And the situation has changed a lot from the first Trump period, so isn't it a situation where North Korea continues to shout for recognition that it is a nuclear power? Is there any chance that President-elect Trump will accept that?

[Yang Wook]
It's actually not easy. Basically, if you accept North Korea's nuclear possession, that means that the United States should allow the Republic of Korea to have nuclear weapons. This is what Trump's camp is talking about.In fact, since international politics itself and the international order itself are based on the NPT, will it be so easy for their aides to make nuclear decisions like they said in their pledges?

I think this is a completely different matter. Nevertheless, North Korea must have its own optimism. But as you said earlier, the conditions have changed and now we are me with nuclear weapons. The problem is that they are even participating in the war in Ukraine.

Unless all of these conditions themselves come up on the table and you can see that they can be settled, I think it will not be easy for such chemistry to happen like it was in the past, like it was in the first Trump period.

[Anchor]
And among the most curious things, there is a high possibility that former President Trump will ask for a large increase in our country's defense costs for the second Trump administration, and secondly, I think there will be talks about reducing and withdrawing U.S. troops from South Korea. How do you see it?

[Yang Wook]
Of course, this will come out. For example, in the case of defense contributions, raise them five times during Trump's first term and give them $5 billion. Then, in the process of this primary, they are saying to raise it 10 times and give 10 billion dollars. I'll tell you again, the question of cost is how much more of this is put in and more of it, and basically Trump sees the alliance as a deal.

If so, we can present a deal that is somewhat acceptable from Trump's point of view or from the point of view of the United States. So this is simply asking for more money, trying to take out troops, looking at it like this
Let me tell you that it is the government's task to make it clear what we really need from the United States and what we will get and create a deal that will satisfy both sides.

[Anchor]
Lastly, during the first Trump administration, he also demanded a big increase in defense costs. Did we actually raise it big then?

[Yang Wook]
No. Actually, they didn't upload it like that.

[Anchor]
Where was the reason why it was hard to impress?

[Yang Wook]
Basically, a nearly five-fold increase is not something we can afford to do immediately, and there are definitely a number of limitations. That's why we talked about raising it step by step. In the end, many countries will approach it that way.

The key is not to listen to all of this, but I think most of the U.S. allies are thinking about how to get along well and make it go without such unreasonable demands in other governments and the next administration.

[Anchor]
Let's stop here. We analyzed the impact on the international situation on the Korean Peninsula after the election of Trump. So far, I've been with Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Thank you very much.