Israel "Restrictive ground operations start"... intentions?

■ Host: Anchor Jung Chae-woon and anchor Kim Jung-jin
■ Telephone connection: Sung Il-kwang, professor at Korea University Middle East Islam Center

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The crisis of escalation in the Middle East is reaching its peak.

Israeli forces have launched limited ground operations against Lebanese armed factions, Hezbollah.

[Anchor]
This time, we will connect experts to analyze the current situation in the Middle East in detail. Seong Il-kwang, a professor at Korea University's Middle East Islam Center, is connected. You're out, right?

[Sunlight]
How are you? It's Sung Ilgwang.

[Anchor]
The Israeli military has officially announced that it has begun ground operations, how do you see the current situation in the Middle East?

[Sunlight]
The situation in the Middle East is turning urgently again. In fact, as such an expectation that a ground war could unfold is realized right away, once again, a confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel is expected, and damage to both sides may increase. And if it turns out like this, the possibility that the existing pro-Iranian militias in Syria, the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, and Iran, the forces around Iran, will attack Israel a little bit more.

[Anchor]
Professor, but the scale, scope, or target of the specific operation has not yet been mentioned. Should I say that it is still at a limited level of ground operations? What do you think?

[Sunlight]
That's right. As announced by the Israeli military, it seems to be operating around a few Lebanese villages near the border for now. The reason for this village is that there are various facilities, such as outposts and trenches, that Hezbollah has built to attack the north of the Israeli village. This can cause Israeli ground forces to go in and destroy and destroy. So, we're going in and operating for that purpose.

The problem is that just because Hezbollah is damaged now, it will not resist at all, you shouldn't see it like this, and I think there will be a battle with Hezbollah and its members. Damage to Israel is also expected. And contrary to what you think, the damage may increase or the duration of the operation may be prolonged. So it's unlikely, but I think there's a possibility that Israel could go even bigger by putting in a lot of troops in a surprise move, even though it started as a small operation now.

[Anchor]
Israeli military tanks have entered several Lebanese border villages and Lebanese troops have also repositioned their forces. The Israeli military used the expression "next level military operation," and what does this next level military operation mean, how should I look at it?

[Sunlight]
Defense Minister Galant said that Israel is going into the next stage of operation. It also means ground troops. Air strikes alone do not solve the problem, especially on the Israeli side, where 70,000 or 80,000 or more Israelis in the northern part of the country have virtually been unable to stay in their homes for nearly 11 months, unable to live, and have been evacuated toward central Israel. So Israel's most realistic goal is to make the Lebanese border area secure so that the Israeli people can return to their homes. In order to do that, the ground forces must go in and operate. So for now, as the Minister of Defense said, Israel will do all the necessary operations to get its citizens back home. So the next step will be ground troops as well. Ground forces have already entered. And I also see the possibility of further expansion of ground force operations.

[Anchor]
Although the professor mentioned it briefly a while ago, Israeli media now continue to report that the goal of the ground operation is to remove the infrastructure used by Hezbollah's special forces at the border. Israel's ground operation has been in 18 years since 2006, so should we see the ultimate goal of this operation as reported from the professor's point of view? What do you think?

[Sunlight]
As you pointed out, Hezbollah's special forces are known as Radman Bud. This special forces have built all the facilities to attack towns north of Israel in the same way that Hamas attacked on October 7th last year, that is, by attacking Israeli villages near Gaza and killing civilians. I've also created the infrastructure. So if you don't remove this infrastructure, the northern Israeli villages are also attacked by Hezbollah and at risk. So in order to eliminate this risk in advance, Israeli ground forces must enter and operate. So, the Israeli military is actually in there right now. Because you have a lot of these areas, maybe the duration of the Israeli military's operations could be extended.

[Anchor]
So far, ground warfare is known to be aimed at a limited level and local goals, but it is unclear whether it will lead to an all-out war, but what do you think?

[Sunlight]
Hezbollah's response is quite weak, contrary to expectations. In fact, Israel understands that with this level of military pressure, Hezbollah already has thousands of rockets and missiles that can attack its central region, Tel Aviv or southern Tel Aviv. At all, Hezbollah is continuing to be defensive without an all-out war. The Israeli side is quite puzzled about this, and it is not yet clear whether Hezbollah has actually lost its war due to Israel's continuous pressure, strong force, or is intentionally avoiding it a little more now. In fact, since the ground forces have already been deployed, a ground force confrontation and fighting between Hezbollah members and Israeli forces is inevitable. In fact, I think that I have already entered the early stages of an all-out war.

[Anchor]
Professor, what do you think about the possibility of a counterattack by other Islamic forces now? How will the axis of Middle East resistance respond? What do you think of this person?

[Sunlight]
It's called the axis of resistance, the proxy organization or solidarity organization created by Iran. You have the Houthi rebels in Yemen. There are pro-Iranian militias that are being sent to Syria, and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Of course, Lebanon also has Hezbollah. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has already said since the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Nasrallah. All axes of resistance must join forces to help Hezbollah. For doing so, Yemen was attacked again by Israel yesterday, but it has already announced in a statement. We will not stop attacking Israel. So Yemen is likely to continue to attack Israel with ballistic missiles or drones. Even in Iraq, you can shoot as many drones or ballistic missiles as you want. So the axis of resistance will continue to attack Israel. But what we should note here is that Israel is very aggressive now and is attacking in all directions. In particular, they attacked Hezbollah. Yemen has also actively flown that long 1,700km twice, attacked and attacked. If this happens, Iraq and Syria could also be Israel's next targets of attack. I'm looking at it like this.

[Anchor]
I just showed you a graphic map.Iran is the head of the axis of resistance. In the case of Iranian President Fezeshikyan, he wanted to have a relatively friendly relationship with the United States and was known to be moderate, but Iran's position seems to have become ambiguous, so how do you think the professor will respond?

[Sunlight]
Now Iran is in fact in a very fierce, fierce competition for routes. Iran's moderates and the hardliners centered on the reformists and the hardliners, the Revolutionary Guards. And there's actually a bitter, open debate between the president and the moderates aiming for reform and opening up through the Iranian media. Previously, such fierce competition for routes was actually only between themselves. It has not been reported publicly, but after Nasrallah's recent death, the Revolutionary Guard's hard-liners and moderates say they can't move on from the very major Iranian media. We want to attack, but an armed attack on Israel is not to our advantage. There is a bitter debate between the two sides in the open that it could put us further at risk.

I think these very reports actually illustrate the serious dilemma that Iran now has. I want to attack, but the newly elected president of Iran wants reform and opening up. Clashes between Iran and the U.S. could prove to be a major obstacle on the way to such reform and opening, and Iran's biggest fear is that the U.S. and Israel could take this opportunity to attack Iran's most cherished nuclear facilities, so Tehran has to put up with it here. And on the hardline side, there are two voices fiercely confronting each other that we should no longer allow Israel to attack our axis of resistance at will.

[Anchor]
Professor, Israel has been killed in an attack on Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, but what is the level of capability and troops of the Israeli intelligence agency compared to Hezbollah?

[Sunlight]
Israel's intelligence is known to be among the best in the world, and on July 31, Hamas supreme leader Ismael Haniyeh was killed inside Tehran, as well as Nasrallah. So recently, Israel has been collecting information on Hezbollah's command since 2006. Most of the movements of the command were understood, and in particular, Israel is eavesdropping on not only internal communication networks used by Hezbollah's command, but also various internal communication networks such as Pippi Longstocking and Wokitoki. The military situation is about 100,000 troops in Hezbollah. Israel also has more than a few hundred thousand people, so there seems to be no difficulty in operating.

[Anchor]
Is there a possibility that after Nasrallah's death, additional Israeli airstrikes or assassination attempts against Hezbollah's leadership will continue?

[Sunlight]
I think that's the case. Most of them have died, but there are still some living leadership left. And perhaps the person who will take over as Nasrallah's secretary general continues to be reported in the media right now. Nasrallah's cousin and a relative whose son was married to the daughter of an important Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander. Of course, Solayman died in an American assassination in 2020. Therefore, he is an important person who can connect Lebanon-Iran relations, and there is a good possibility of an assassination attack on him. That's how I see it and that's how I think there's going to be further Israeli assassination attacks.

[Anchor]
The West predicts that Iran will maintain a cautious attitude toward Iran. So far. There are opinions that the possibility of a fifth Middle East war is low, what do you think, professor? Is there a possibility?

[Sunlight]
It's quite difficult to predict. It depends on Iran's decision. Here, as Iran continues to call for strategic patience, there was a direct armed conflict with Israel in April, but it didn't have much effect. They shot 350 drones and ballistic missiles, but almost all of them were intercepted and had no effect. In order to attack Israel again this time, it is necessary to study a different way, a way that can cause a little direct damage. And if, as I said, the U.S. and Israel retaliate and attack Iran's most important oil refineries, oil production facilities, and nuclear facilities, Iran's conservative hard-line regime could be strongly opposed by the Iranian people. The regime could be in danger. How hard is the Iranian economy already now, not just because it was attacked by oil facilities and could not export oil? Under these circumstances, Iran's supreme leader and its leadership have to decide whether to attack or tolerate it more because Iran has always had an image of itself as a very powerful country in the Middle East.

[Anchor]
This time, let's move on to Lebanon, which is directly affected by airstrikes. It's a large-scale Israeli bombing. Before the arrow to the north, Lebanon feared that the number of refugees could reach up to 1 million. Do you think there is a possibility that Lebanon or Hezbollah will act independently?

[Sunlight]
That's right. Hezbollah continues to be defensive right now. Israel will continue to attack now. Because it's a weapon hidden by Hezbollah, and then the Israeli military will have more than a few thousand targets. We are continuing to attack one by one, and Israel is pushing Hezbollah, but the dilemma for Israel is that the war will have to end at some point, and we have to talk to who we are going to end the war. Because almost all of Hezbollah's Jihibu has disappeared. The political solution, the diplomatic solution, is that Hezbollah and Israel will no longer enter a ceasefire, so that the people of northern Israel can safely return to their homes. You have to get an agreement not to attack. No matter how many times you go home without such an agreement, Hezbollah could attack a town in the north of Israelis again. So the final solution is not actually a military solution. Israel's ultimate goal is to negotiate and reach an agreement with anyone, the Lebanese government, or the leaders of Hezbollah who will be newly appointed later. Israel's dilemma right now is that Israel has virtually no clear goal and no one to talk to.

[Anchor]
Professor, then Israel succeeded in removing the head of Hamas and the head of Hezbollah. In addition, there is a limited ground operation this time, so what do you think will happen to Israel's next step?

[Sunlight]
Israel is actually quite encouraged right now. In fact, they were on the defensive, attacked on October 7th last year, and they were on the defensive in a surprise attack by Hamas, and now they have driven Hamas to the point of destruction. And it's true that you moved the southern front back to the northern front, starting with the piped bomb, almost exterminating Hezbollah's command, and taking the tide to your own advantage. More importantly, the goal of Israel's military operation seems to have completely changed. We are actively attacking from the existing defensive position. We attacked the Yemeni Houthis for the second time, which is 1,700 kilometers long. Hezbollah continues to push now, and if it needs Israel, for example, it could also attack pro-Iranian militias in Iraq if it attacks Israel with ballistic missiles or drones again from Iraq. And the same goes for Syria. So I think that Israel is now likely to have additional military attacks because its military strategy has changed from the existing defensive to the offensive.

[Anchor]
The pattern of the war that initially started with the war between Israel and Hamas extends to Hezbollah and the axis of resistance. So this Middle East war, when will it end?

[Sunlight]
In fact, the possibility of escalation has been a concern since October last year. However, I expected that it would be difficult for Arab countries to participate in the war. Then, if it's the only one confirmed, it'll be Hezbollah and then Iran. There's been a lot of analysis from these experts. In fact, the war between Lebanon and Hezbollah has expanded in that direction, and in fact, the war between Lebanon and Hezbollah can be called the Third Lebanon War. The second one was in 2006. I think that's how you can see it. And I think that if Iran were to actively engage in armed conflict with Israel again here, it would actually be possible for us to go through the Fourth Middle East and go through the Fifth Middle East.Ma still depends on Iran's decision as I said, you can see it like this.

[Anchor]
I see.

I even took a look at the situation in the Middle East with Sung Il-kwang, a professor at Korea University's Middle East Islam Center. Thank you for talking today.