[Politics ON] Lee Jae-myung's "Pull It Down" workshop...Yeo "In Impeachment" vs Hey "General Theory"

■ Host: Youngsoo Kim anchor
■ Appearance: Kim Hyung-joon, chair professor at Bae Jae-dae, head of InSightK Research Center, Bae Jong-chan

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsON] when quoting.


[Anchor]
Let's start <Politics On> looking at the outside and inside of politics. Today, I will analyze it with Kim Hyung-joon, chair professor of Bae Jae-dae, and Bae Jong-chan, head of InSight K Research Institute. Please come in. Hello, let's look at the first keyword. The first keyword is discipline. Representative Han Dong-hoon had his first dinner with close lawmakers yesterday. Some analysts say that he has started showing off his power due to conflicts with the presidential office, and we will listen to the voice of Supreme Council member Kim Jae-won following representative Han Dong-hoon.

First of all, I had a dinner with about 20 close lawmakers last night. It was the first meeting since the inauguration of the CEO, so he gave a lot of political meaning. How did Professor Kim Hyung-joon see it?

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
It's Han Dong-hoon's Seongdong Gyeokseo, that's what I see. For example, you scream in the east and hit the enemy in the west.
If you look at it now, it doesn't mean that Kim Dae-nam is also disciplined with Kim Dae-nam. I think it's a clear message, a message to the presidential office. However, there are some parts that can cause unnecessary misunderstanding at that time. Since the president is about to conduct an inspection of the government while leaving the country, it can be seen that the ruling party's role is to become an original team and allow the government to respond well to the inspection. If you keep going out like this, you will probably have been reported in the media like this. In the meantime, it was not confirmed, but there is a part where it is said to bring one more person each the next time you come, and it can only be said that factional politics was finally officialized and factional politics was declared. That's why I always tell you this, but President Yoon Suk Yeol and CEO Han Dong-hoon have all been in the prosecution for a long time. Maybe that's why I can't solve the problems that need to be solved with politics with politics.
I see it that way. Of course, it's possible to have a dinner, but isn't it very sharp at this point? In a situation where this expression of "crossing the gentle Rubicon River" is being reported in the media, the political implications of this dinner can vary depending on how you see it.

[Anchor]
I asked a lot of participants what they talked about yesterday. Today's participant also had a radio interview. CEO Han Dong-hoon expressed that he should respond well to Kim Gun-hee's offensive. I also listened to all the opinions one by one, and there was also a perception that if this continues, the party will really annihilate. That's what lawmaker Park Jung-hoon said. What kind of position was it? What kind of personality do you think it was?

[Bae Jong Chan]
I was just getting a head start, rather than discipline. That's inevitable because there are requirements for change now. There must be a reason why he was chosen at the last national convention, and as time goes by, CEO Han Dong-hoon cannot stay still. I talked about the ruling and opposition parties' political consultative body, but you don't have anything in your hands right now, do you? In the end, whether it is a ruling-opposition-government consultative body or a meeting with the opposition party, there is no choice but to have a precondition for persuading President Yoon Suk Yeol first, but Professor Kim Hyung-joon said something very important just now. It's Seongdong Geokseo. The reason is that it will be difficult for President Yoon Suk Yeol to accept or accept just because he openly demands it from President Yoon Suk Yeol.

In the end, through public opinion, we may be wiped out by President Yoon Suk Yeol and lawmakers within the power of the people who have different ideas from representative Han Dong-hoon. Then it's bound to change. Professor Kim Hyung-joon said something important just now, so please show the screen again. What was going on. Let's respond well to Han Dong-hoon's attack on Kim Gun-hee. I don't know what will happen if the special prosecutor Kim Gun-hee comes out again, whether in November or December. At that time, there are voices calling for a conciliatory visit to the president, but representative Han Dong-hoon is also passing by day. Then, so-called at the next meeting, it's an extension of the outside world to bring one more person. So let's expand the scope and literally go to a level where we have no choice but to carry this out through public opinion, which seems to be this determination.

[Anchor]
It's now Daegu Mayor Hong Joon Pyo, and lawmaker Kwon Sung-dong, Chin-yoon. He criticized my seat last night. Let's see how he said it. What are you going to do under the first-timers in politics? The mayor of Hong Joon Pyo criticized how many people are trying to intimidate the president with weapons, saying that it is a strange meeting at a strange time. Rep. Kwon Sung-dong criticized the advertisement, saying it was his first time seeing him eat. It's a check of Chin-yoon.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
In fact, it's not a problem if the relationship between the president and representative Han Dong-hoon meets like that in a very cooperative system. However, there are parts that are difficult to understand, such as excluding the party leader from there, even though they say they gather the floor leaders to eat. It's read in the form of a counterattack. In that sense, I think it's very clunky. Since CEO Han Dong-hoon is out of the office, it's time for an audit for about three weeks. So in this situation where everything is going on in the floor, there was a dinner with the chairmen of the outside party cooperation committee that strengthened their status and was more interested than this.

In my view, this is all the more meaningful, as the former chief Bae Jong-chan took the lead, in other words, the party is no longer in the control of Yoon Suk Yeol's president. Since it shows those things, don't you think the conflict structure is not resolved because you continue to represent the president? So, if you look at the history of our political parties, there are two people who have sharply opposed the current president and the party leader. It's three of us, to say it out loud. In the end, President Roh Tae-woo and YS. At that time, YS took full control and put pressure on the president. Then YS and President Lee Hoi-chang. This can be seen as a case where YS completely overpowered President Lee Hoi-chang not as the party leader but as the party leader. And in fact, if it goes smoothly, it's the relationship between the representative of Park Geun Hye and the president of Lee Myung Bak. At that time, President Lee Myung Bak just gave everything to the then CEO Park Geun Hye. There were parts where there was no noise at all. However, the most recent relationship between President Park Geun Hye and Representative Kim Moo-sung is similar to the current situation, but at that time, the Saenuri Party lost the 2016 general election by only one seat, so in terms of seats or things like this. And the president of Park Geun Hye had a region, he had an ideology, he had a solid base. Therefore, even in the conflict structure with representative Kim Moo-sung, President Park Geun Hye still had the balance of power, but now I don't think that's the part.

Therefore, it seems that the president has the balance of power, but in reality, the president and the party leader are constantly moving toward the balance. Under such circumstances, there is an intention to gradually bring this relationship toward representative Han Dong-hoon through a friendly dinner or a banquet with the chairmen of the party's cooperation committee outside the assembly, but I think there may be various views on whether to go as far as intended.

[Anchor]
Rep. Park Jung-hoon, who was interviewed by radio today, said, "If about 40 lawmakers are in a neutral position, there is a possibility that they will be transferred to a close relationship."

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
In fact, I don't know if it will be possible for Han Dong-hoon to take control of the party until the end of the presidential election, but when he resigns as the leader by the party's constitutional rules in September next year, the situation will change so much that he is already lining up with Han Dong-hoon from now on. According to the Korean grammar of Yeouido, it may not be developed that way yet.

[Bae Jong Chan]
You gave me a very important word. This will also be linked to your approval rating. But what kind of judgment will the supporters make? More than lawmaker Park Jung-hoon's analysis, most of them are to cooperate, whether it is floor members, outside chairman, or supporters. Rather, President Yoon Suk Yeol and Representative Han Dong-hoon showed a bromance, so the synergy effect of this cooperation is the best thing for the people and for President Yoon Suk Yeol, so why not do it? I've been emphasizing this story. Professor Kim Hyung-joon said something very important just before
As a result, some say that former administrator Kim Dae-nam should be investigated or inspected, eventually intervened in the sublease, and if so, wouldn't it be close pressure? It's kind of an anti-war strategy for this, but the key is TK, after all.

If you look at it now, PK Cho Kyung-tae attended the meeting of CEO Han Dong-hoon. The biggest reason why the picture came to the front is that PK then gave strength to CEO Han Dong-hoon, and CEO Han Dong-hoon is smiling. But it's probably TK that's important. Although TK is said to have Kim Sang-hoon, chairman of the policy committee, TK is still an important core foundation for President Moon Yoon Suk Yeol and the Moon Yoon Suk Yeol administration. If so, whether a senior member of TK or a sixth-term lawmaker empowers representative Han Dong-hoon, this should be considered the key.

[Anchor]
Former Administrator Kim Dae-nam, how do you think it will be handled? First of all, CEO Han Dong-hoon just talked about discipline. I was an auditor of the Seoul Guarantee Insurance Company, but former administrator Kim Dae-nam submitted a letter of resignation. I've submitted my resignation. However, Kim Dae-nam, the administrator, was in early July, just before the national convention, and Kim Gun-hee is about to die because of candidate Han Dong-hoon. If you plan it well this time, I told you that you will like it.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
What's worse than that is that the part that Han Dong-hoon raised about whether Kim Dae-nam did it alone or whether there was a rumor behind it is the start of another conflict. If so, it would not be alone for senior administrator Kim Dae-nam to say so when hearing and interpreting the contents. It was achieved through communication with someone, and it kept falling into the swamp of conflict. As a result, regarding Kim Dae-nam, he has left the party and quit his position as an auditor, but isn't Kim Jae-won, the supreme council member, talking about conducting an inspection? This is not an inspection within a political party, but some other legal action can be taken. So, for example, if it's an election, it interfered with the election. Isn't it so? In addition, the parts that can be defamed and take various legal actions are not necessarily representative Han Dong-hoon, but a third party can take legal action against Kim Dae-nam on this part.

[Anchor]
CEO Han Dong-hoon said that legal action could be taken.

[Bae Jong Chan]
I don't see it that way. Because it could be a stern warning, but now former administrator Kim Dae-nam is currently a full-time auditor of SGI Seoul Guarantee Insurance. If you continue to hold out, or if you threaten the presidential office with a kind of counter-argument, representative Han Dong-hoon will have no choice but to go stronger. However, a stern warning message seems to have been delivered to former administrator Kim Dae-nam. And for similar cases, shouldn't we put weight on the fact that if this situation is exposed or caught again in the future, more severe measures will be taken? If so, if we go deeper into this, we will have no choice but to go to the structure of conflict between representative Han Dong-hoon and President Yoon Suk Yeol. So, I think CEO Han Dong-hoon resigned at this level, and he is deeply reflecting on himself, and at this level, wouldn't it be over to some extent?

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
Normally, it is unusual for the representative to directly raise a problem with this part. As a result, Rep. Na Kyung-won and the mayor of Hong Joon Pyo raise questions about that. Nevertheless, the reason why he did so is to prevent the second and third Kim Dae-nam. So I got a feeling that the constant shaking of Han Dong-hoon would probably continue. So, it does not necessarily punish through legal action, but it has a preventive effect by taking legal action. As a precautionary measure, I think there must be some possibility that it has been done.

[Anchor]
I see. Thank you very much. Let's move on to the next keyword. The next keyword is "inside." It's floor leader Choo Kyung-ho. This is what Lee Jae-myung, chairman of the Democratic Party of Korea, said during a campaign rally last weekend. Politicians are fighting over what they said is democracy that brings down even in the middle. Floor leader Choo Kyung-ho argued that he was under impeachment, while the Democratic Party responded that it was only a general opinion. I'll listen to it myself.

Lee Jae-myung's remarks over the weekend, saying that democracy is what pulls him down even in the middle. Democrats argue that it's a common story, that they didn't even bring up the impeachment of the impeachment story.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
Who are you bringing down? I want to ask the Democratic Party. I want to ask Kim Minseok the best. Who are you bringing down? There's an opponent to bring it down. Then can you just be general without that? It's general to judge. But to bring them down is to talk about a specific object. In that sense, he just did not say that the interpretation was Yoon Suk Yeol's president, but it was a reference to the impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol's president. So CEO Lee Jae-myung has implications in two ways.

The first thing is that the remarks related to the impeachment of the president have been centered on ordinary lawmakers and personal opinions, and I think that the fact that the representative himself talked about it at the campaign to support the by-elections is a kind of measure against saying that he will start it. Second, there may be criticism for such an expanded interpretation, but I don't know how Lee Jae-myung's ruling in November will come out, but there is a possibility that he had the situation in mind. In the end, what is this signal? So why are the opposition parties rallying? Don't you gather when there's a crisis in your own way?

So in that sense, if the November ruling comes out while continuing to preheat in advance, the cards that can be offset against this are inevitable parts through the presidential impeachment card. Rather than going right away, what purpose did the parts that were preheated in this way eventually have to be talked about? Can't we just talk about it in general, the representative's message? However, there is a ambivalence view on who will bring down who, and furthermore, it may vary depending on the view, but there is also room for a very high-level schedule of the ruling plan.

[Anchor]
Looking at representative Lee Jae-myung's writing, everyone, politics is not difficult. If it's serious enough to wait for an election, isn't democracy representative politics? That's what I said.

[Bae Jong Chan]
It's Heimlich's law. A lot of small things happen before something big happens to us. Looking at the current trend of politics, I am determined in four letters. In the end, regardless of the people's wishes, they have no choice but to go to impeachment and trial from November. The Democratic Party of Korea will impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol, the power of the people, and the conservatives will be judged by Lee Jae-myung. So I think it will go to an unpredictable situation. The reason is that representative Lee Jae-myung is talking about impeachment after the prosecution's two- and three-year prison terms, and he is now suggesting it more strongly even though it could be suspected as a trial bulletproof. As a result, we have no choice but to mention the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol by linking first lady Kim Gun-hee after November. Why? You can't impeach your spouse, can you?

The key point is to impeach Kim Gun-hee, but in the end, the impeachment of Kim Gun-hee will inevitably lead to the impeachment of the president. After all, there are two key indicators of this. It's related to the first trial sentence in November, representative Lee Jae-myung. Another is the president's approval rating. If the president's approval rating is around 20% based on Gallup Korea or Realmeter, we'll look at the public opinion now.E. If you look at the Realmeter results, there's a little bit of a sense of crisis. Even if you look at this, the supporters are very concerned about impeachment. Because at a low approval rating, such things are bound to be driven by public opinion, so even public opinion supporters know this as a learning effect during the Park Geun Hye presidency.
Impeachment doesn't make sense, it doesn't make sense. I know you can't impeach the president just because he doesn't like it, because he's not good at state administration, because he criticizes it, but I know public opinion is quite strained. However, if that happens, our political situation will be admired after the U.S. presidential election in November. I think we will have no choice but to go to the impeachment and the judgment against representative Lee Jae-myung.

[Anchor]
Let me introduce the performance evaluation today. 27. 9%, positive evaluation. The negative evaluation was 68.1%. Compared to the survey a week ago, the positive rating increased by 2.1 percentage points. How do you see it?

[Kim Hyung-joon]
Since the real meter survey and the Gallup Korea survey are different, I've said several times that the president's approval rating for state administration is below 30% in the real meter survey. But if you look at it now, isn't most of them fixed in the 20% range starting from the first week of September? It was like this, but the standard in Gallup Korea is about 25%. in a telephone interview survey However, after the general election in April, Gallup Korea conducted 17 surveys until the 4th week of September. I've done 17 surveys and I've never exceeded 30%, and the first week of September is a low of 20%. So, it's not that it went up a few times or not, but if you look at the fundamental trend, there are numbers that usually appear about a year before the term of office in previous presidents.

That's why I haven't even reached the halfway point of my term. It's November. In that sense, it is inevitably an emergency situation. There are a few things that take up a significant part of that, but the biggest thing is that there is no solution to the legislative conflict in relation to medical care. I just want time to go by. The public is very anxious about this, and when they meet, they say, "Don't get sick," so how vicious is this? The second part is that time continues to drag on while various suspicions related to Kim Gun-hee have not been resolved. Isn't the third and last thing is the energy of war in the Middle East? In the meantime, of course, prices are going very stable, but there are various price problems including vegetables that you feel. And the results of the survey also show that apartment prices are symbolically very attractive as in the past. These are the president's support for state administration overall. In this case, there's only one breakthrough after all. There is no other way but to go to the people's livelihood through a strong cooperation system with the passport.
But there's also conflict now, so President Yoon Suk Yeol is kind of beleaguered.

It's hard to find a breakthrough, so that trend has no choice but to continue as it is. How great is the Czech nuclear power plant when the president travels abroad? If you go on a trip again, your support usually increases. However, it is possible to analyze that other factors strongly influence the president's support that they are not appearing in the Yoon Suk Yeol presidential government.

[Bae Jong Chan]
It's an analysis of approval ratings, so I'm asking for many things right now if I say one word. The so-called stagnation is Chae Kim-ui. So, there is no one who doesn't know that Marine Chae and Mrs. Kim Gun-hee are medical care. But it won't be easy to solve those things in a day or two right away. If so, how much cooperation with CEO Han Dong-hoon can increase his approval rating by more than 3 percentage points right now? So it doesn't matter whether President Yoon Suk Yeol is cooperative or not in relation to personal matters. When it comes to work, it is necessary to show cooperation. What the supporters want is to work together personally, whether the relationship between President Yoon Suk Yeol and Representative Han Dong-hoon has improved or moved further away, more important than this. So, whether it's medical treatment, making a breakthrough in the independent counsel's investigation into Chae's illness, or calming down the angry and negative public opinion related to Kim, do we put our heads together or not? This part is very important. Whether it's actually Gallup or Realmeter, in the case of Gallup, it's around 3 percentage points. Also, in the case of a real meter, this alone is a factor that increases by around 5 percentage points. It seems quite important.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
There's a turning point. Rather, the only way for the president to have a private meeting with representative Han Dong-hoon after returning from his tour is very much the only way. I'm in a lot of trouble right now. And it's the weekly meeting that we can develop further. At this level, the presidential office will change, and in order to go further and explain the effect of the tour, the leaders of the ruling and opposition parties will meet with Lee Jae-myung in the presidential office. You have to show something that changes so that the people can go out again. It's very difficult right now with regard to the Ministry of Economy, but I think the ministers in charge of working-level affairs are silent. There is no such thing, even though the message should continue to come out, saying, "I will take care of people's livelihoods no matter how I do it." So, as I came back from my trip, I thought deeply about it and that's politics.
So solve it with politics, please. That way, it's hard for the people and the president with such low support, but it's hard for the people who are looking at it. It should be politics that gives you dreams and hopes, but I'm telling you that's too lacking.

[Anchor]
For both of them, the solution is the time to actively show cooperation between the ruling party and the government. And one of the solutions was that President Yoon Suk Yeol met with representative Han Dong-hoon immediately after returning from an overseas trip and showed his cooperation and actively engaged in relations with the opposition party, which could be a turning point for his approval rating to recover. Thank you very much. Let's continue to talk about the parliamentary audit today. The first parliamentary audit of the 22nd National Assembly began today. It will last about four weeks. The Democratic Party said it would dig through the suspicions surrounding First Lady Kim Gun-hee, and the people's power would be against Lee Jae-myung's representative Bangtan National Assembly. We will meet the situation of the ruling and opposition parties fiercely from the first day and come back with a video.

[Anchor]
The 22nd National Assembly's first parliamentary audit. The ruling party is trying to highlight the judicial risks of representative Lee Jae-myung, and the opposition party is focusing on the suspicion of Kim Gun-hee. How do you see the first parliamentary audit of the 22nd National Assembly of the ruling and opposition parties?

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
Korea is the only country that conducts state audits over a certain period of time. Now I've pointed out countless times in terms of parliamentary politics. Do not confuse parliamentary inspection and parliamentary investigation. The term itself is different. So, if you look at it now, some people ask about pending issues and others ask about the contents of the parliamentary investigation. That's why it can't be fixed. If you really need to, you should do your research. After conducting a parliamentary investigation, anyone can adopt it as a witness at that time in relation to the issue. However, we suddenly adopt civilians as witnesses when conducting a parliamentary audit. This is a very wrong part. And furthermore, how can you do more than 800 audited organs in that short period of time? What comes out the most when analyzing big data is that the national audit in Korea is a watermelon-style national audit. It comes out a lot. The next thing that comes out a lot is political controversy. You can't even hear of a policy audit at all. And then we fight each other and end up saying whatever we want.

Since these things have not been fixed, how can the 22nd National Assembly especially use such terms for the term itself? It's called the National Assembly after all. I've heard of the end of the debate while discussing, but the end of the National Assembly... Is this the end of the National Assembly? There are many times every year, aren't there? Then, the most basic purpose of the audit is to check whether the government has operated efficiently in budget and policy execution for a year and deliberate on the budget based on it. That's the basic thing. So don't we say that the regular session of the National Assembly is the budget session? However, rather than that, the parts related to First Lady Kim Gun-hee, the stories related to Lee Jae-myung's bulletproof, and all of them will be investigated in the audit, but the rest of the issues cannot be included. This means that in the end, there will be no choice but to be driven into such a situation where the theory of uselessness of the parliamentary audit comes out. [Anchor] It was mentioned earlier, but the right to accompany. In the case of the Democratic Party of Korea, it is also pushing for the issuance of an accompanying order so that first lady Kim Gun-hee will attend the parliamentary inspection unconditionally. How do you see it?

[Bae Jong Chan]
I'm going to issue it. It can be issued under the National Assembly Act. However, many witnesses related to the hearing and the special prosecutor were adopted in this parliamentary audit, and quite a lot of witnesses related to Kim Gun-hee were adopted. The question is, as a result, whether this can be done very calmly. Even if it's related, it's going to be very difficult. Because it will become a political dispute, and will First Lady Kim Gun-hee attend the National Assembly just because she issues an accompanying order? Because I don't do it, I have no choice but to repeat the phrase "end, end". So I would like to suggest this.
Please, as much as this parliamentary audit, we should introduce a mandatory public monitoring system.

Therefore, according to this evaluation, the parliamentary recall system should be immediately implemented for lawmakers who are really lacking in content. The reason why I'm telling you this is that in the end, I'll understand to some extent if I make people's livelihoods overwhelmed and take politics to another track. Why? At a time when people are suffering from considerable difficulties due to the people's livelihood, they are going like this. It's about representative Lee Jae-myung, about First Lady Kim Gun-hee. As a result, I need to introduce a monitoring system to make people compete on pending issues. All portal-related contents are included, including the chairman of the National Assembly. So I want to make sure that the middle, the metropolitan area, and then the young people see and check this out. Why? When you look at the data, it's serious. Those in their 20s and 30s are literally political exodus. Politics I don't watch. I don't see politics, depoliticization is taking place. It's serious. And those in their 40s and older stopped politics. It's not that I quit smoking. I didn't quit drinking, I quit politics. If it goes like this, it's serious.

[Anchor]
I see. Lastly, Dahye, the daughter of former President Moon Jae In, will be investigated by the police on charges of drunk driving. Politicians are also noisy, but the power of the people demanded an apology from former President Moon.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
Former President Moon Jae In's remarks must have been a problem. That's why Moon Da-hye is a Moon Jae In. There's even the word "munjeokmun." On October 10, 2018, former President Moon Jae In died of drunk driving because a soldier who had been in the Army at the time died of drunk driving. If this drunk driving is not a mistake but a serious one that can kill people, and even a first-time offender has a lot of room for recidivism, what I'm sorry about is that if my father is a former president, he should always be careful and go out further and do everything with the same mindset as a public figure, but this is not just this incident, but various things related to Moon Da-hye are continuing to happen, right?

In this situation, the first part of the presentation is what is the cognitive system they have. So, of course, the president of Moon Jae In should apologize for that in some form or form. Even if it's a daughter, if there's something wrong with this part, the president of Moon Jae In will be in trouble because there's something he said, but this shouldn't be dragged on. Immediately, regarding this part, I raised my daughter incorrectly, etc. So I think we should apologize to the people very honestly.

[Bae Jong Chan]
It seems to be a shame on the whole level. Because there was a lot of controversy about this, not just about one case, but about the son-in-law, the residence, the Jeju villa, and these parts. a general regret for such matters As a politician for former President Moon Jae In of the youth, he emphasized justice and fairness during his tenure, so such an attitude is also necessary.

[Anchor]
I see. Thank you very much. So far, I've been with Jung Kook-on Bae Jong-chan, head of InSightK Research Institute, and Kim Hyung-joon, chair professor at Baejae University. Thank you very much. Thank you.