"Oil Shock" warning sound...Who is shaking the most?

Fears of a so-called "oil shock" have grown as international oil prices have risen sharply since Iran launched a large-scale ballistic missile attack on Israel on the 1st.

Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University professor who is a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said, "It is not an exaggeration to say that it is the most unstable state since the Cold War, and it could get worse in a hurry."

Oxford Economics analyzed that international oil prices would soar to $130 a barrel if a regional war broke out involving Israel and Iran.

The New York Times said the situation is now favorable compared to the "oil shock" in the early 1970s.

This is because there is shale oil in the United States and other regions have developed wind and solar power to reduce their dependence on oil.

The New York Times, however, noted that low-income African countries such as Zambia and Mozambique, Tanzania and Angola will be hit the hardest if oil supply shocks occur.

These countries have cut public spending to avoid default, but higher costs of oil imports are expected to sharply worsen their financial conditions.

China also relies on imports for three-quarters of its oil consumption, which could raise concerns about a slump in the property market and a slowdown in the economy.

Europe is particularly vulnerable, so it is considered likely to experience stagflation.

"In Europe, recession and stronger inflation are likely to occur at the same time," said Jacob Girkegaard, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), a U.S. think tank.

But Russia will certainly benefit from high oil prices, allowing Putin to secure the resources to step up his attack on Ukraine and provide more support to ally Iran, Girkegaard said.

The Iranian government is seeking Russia to provide the final elements needed to have the capacity to produce nuclear weapons.

As a result, he argued that attacking Iran could eventually increase the risk of Iran's nuclear armament, which could curb Israel's will to war.