[Issue ON] North Korea provokes a new ICBM...Kim Jong-un said, "I will never change my will to respond and nuclear force."

■ Host: Anchor Kim Youngsoo Kim, Anchor Lee Ha-rin
■ Starring: Former Vice Unification Minister Kim Hyung-seok

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsON] when quoting.

[Anchor]
At this time yesterday, North Korea appears to be ready for ICBM TEL, or a mobile missile launcher, our intelligence agency said, and today North Korea actually launched an ICBM.

[Anchor]
In addition to the technical need to test new ICBMs, today's choice seems to have a variety of political intentions. Let's analyze it with former Vice Unification Minister Kim Hyung-seok. Welcome.

[Anchor]
Before the U.S. presidential election, there were many observations that it would launch an ICBM. The presidential election is just around the corner, so you shot it right away. What kind of missile do you think it is?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
It's an intercontinental ballistic missile. Basically, in 2017, North Korea declared the completion of the national nuclear force and launched the Hwasong-15. Then, President Trump immediately said, "I can't do this." The United States should be interested. Because it's a crossroads all the way to Florida. Entering the atmosphere is a separate thing, if you look at the intersection. So the U.S. responded right away. So from that point of view, North Korea needs to show something stimulating called an ICBM to quickly attract the United States.

[Anchor]
I heard the highest altitude is 7000km. So since I shot it at a high angle, how far will it fly if I shoot it at a normal angle?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
The one I did in 2017 didn't go up to 7000, but the one I analyzed at that time was about 13,000km. So it's a distance to get to Florida. [Anchor] It's possible in the East of the United States.

[Kim Hyung-seok]
It's definitely possible. So, the distance is long, the flight time is long, and if you look at what North Korea itself announced today, it is said that it has broken a new record.

[Anchor]
It means we can fly all the way to Washington DC.

[Kim Hyung-seok]
That's enough.

[Anchor]
There is a photo released by North Korea last month, and it is highly likely that it was launched from a 12-axis TEL. Then, what North Korea said was a monster missile unveiled at the military parade in 2020 was the 11th axis. It's been a lot longer, right?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
That's right. One more axis means you're holding up a kind of force, and isn't this a kind of TEL mobile launcher? But what's more important here is not that, but whether the fuel is liquid or solid. If it's liquid, it takes time to inject it, but if it's solid, it means that it can be prepared and fired in a short period of time. If you look at it this time, our authorities only found out that it was ready for this TEL, but they were detecting it to launch at 7 o'clock in the morning, but wasn't it a little sudden in a way?

In that sense, we should carefully look at whether there is some progress in the fuel sector.

[Anchor]
It's on the screen right now. The wheels are big like that. It's mobile. It means that you can fire anytime, anywhere, and as you said, it's solid, not liquid, so we can hit the ground zero right away. It doesn't mean that you can hide so that you can't hit the ground zero and then come out right away to shoot.

[Kim Hyung-seok]
That's right. In the past, there was a TEL, but we even shot it on the train. So in a way, it's become even more difficult for us.

[Anchor]
Chairman Kim Jong-un announced his position again today. He said that it was an appropriate military activity to signal the enemy's willingness to respond and that he would never change the nuclear force strengthening line. It could actually be a message to the United States.

[Kim Hyung-seok]
That's right. North Korea is not already sending messages to South Korea. I'm sending it to the United States. I'm telling you that clearly. So, in the case of unmanned aerial vehicles, this was done by a Korean puppet gang member who was ordered by the United States. I'm not saying that the United States should be responsible.

So now North Korea is continuing to talk about the United States. Coincidentally, it came out of the SCM meeting, right? So it might be a response message to that. So if Korea and the U.S. are strong in this way, they will not be pushed back. And there is also enough capacity to pose a threat to the United States.

And so far, we have to check it out.The whole world is concerned that something new military technology will flow into North Korea from Russia. Isn't that why it's been a long time? Wouldn't it have gone this fast? It also has the effect of confusing the West in this area.

[Anchor]
What you said is that the ICBM warhead's reentry technology into the atmosphere in exchange for sending troops to Russia, and this possibility, there are many analyses now, so what do you think?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
If you look at the physical time, you can't rule out the possibility at all. But if you look at the physical time, isn't that not yet? But I think it's only a matter of time. So, if you look at North Korea and Russia as a whole, we are heading in the direction of strengthening cooperation between North Korea and Russia.

In the meantime, the ICBM part is clearly that North Korea is already a solid-powered ICBM as the number one priority to strengthen its defense capabilities and succeeds in that. So, since it's number one, there's a military reconnaissance satellite, but you can strongly demand this part from the Russian side and there's a possibility that you'll be taught in this part.

[Anchor]
I see. The ICBM was launched five hours after the defense ministers of South Korea and the U.S. condemned it through a joint SCM statement. But when you explained earlier, you talked about the Hwasong-15 launch during President Trump. Since then, summits have been held between North Korea and the U.S.

Even now, can launching an ICBM like this be seen as such a launch and provocation to target President Trump and make the election advantageous?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
I think it's possible enough. So, from North Korea's point of view, we need to change the situation, but what is certain is that China and Russia play the role of DP. Then, if you look at the United States from the perspective of North Korea, you have to overpower it. Then, in order to attract the United States, if you look at Biden, Harris, or the so-called Democratic Party, you can't have a summit because it's strategic patience. In other words, the summit is a situation where we can't even talk about it at all.

But President Trump has done this in a kind of top-down way in the past, and he's already talking about it during the election. If this happens, you can try to do this with Kim Jong-un who has nuclear weapons or solve this, so you can try to quickly bring the so-called United States into the country and do something.

[Anchor]
As you said, such a provocation five days before the U.S. presidential election can only be interpreted as having the U.S. presidential election in mind, so can it actually affect the U.S. presidential election?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
In the current U.S. presidential election, the so-called foreign and security issues really affect votes, but overall, they don't affect foreign and security issues that much. But if you look at it now, the North Korean military is participating in the war in Ukraine, and various situations are bound to be of interest to the American people in terms of diplomacy and security. And what's more, North Korea may have intended it, but if the U.S. is within range by using an ICBM, then this itself can't be said to have no effect on U.S. votes at all.

[Anchor]
Since you've been talking about sending troops, I'll talk about sending troops. The Ukrainian government has released the names of generals who accompanied North Korean troops sent to Russia. On top of that, Kim Young-beom, deputy chief of staff of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army, was known and two more were disclosed, so please show us. Lee Chang-ho, Director of Reconnaissance General, Major General Shin Geum-chul of the People's Army. Aren't these three generals in a very important position?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
So, in the case of Kim Young-bok, he was the commander of the 11th Army, and he is the deputy commander of the General Staff. If you look here, the fact that a person with the title of the Reconnaissance General Director went there is generally done in such areas as rear penetration.

[Anchor]
Is it as big as the National Intelligence Service in Korea?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
Not the NIS, but the commander of a special forces unit. Then, the chief of the People's Army... So, in terms of our inter-Korean relations, the chief of the reconnaissance bureau has traditionally sent spies or sent combat troops to disrupt the situation.

[Anchor]
Kim Young-chul was also the head of the Reconnaissance General Bureau.

[Kim Hyung-seok]
In that sense, the North Korean military dispatched this time is usually called a storm troop by our National Intelligence Service, so it can be said that it sent a person who can command the military accordingly. If that's true.

[Anchor]
The names of the generals have been revealed like this, so what do you think about the situation of the North Korean military in the Ukraine-Russia war? There were many dead yesterday. There were also reports like this, but the Ukrainian government has not confirmed it.

[Kim Hyung-seok]
If you look at foreign media reports, even pictures came out. Photos of him being captured also came out, but as of now, the U.S. and North Korea's combat forces have entered the country, and the most likely area to be dispatched is the Kursk region, so I think it's only a matter of time. So how do you do this, so will you do it alone by the North Korean military, or will you do it in cooperation with the Russian military, for example? A lot of things will be adjusted internally now. If that happens, I think it will come out.

[Anchor]
Our Defense Intelligence Headquarters believes that North Korean troops deployed to the front line are likely to suffer considerable damage because they are not properly trained in drone warfare.

[Kim Hyung-seok]
So you don't have combat experience right now. So, of course. So what we're concerned about is that North Korea is the first in this regard. There will be such losses, but we're worried about that because we can definitely gain hands-on experience with this and apply it to our side.

[Anchor]
The Kursk region is now a large plain area, but the North Korean military did not have much training in such a large plain area. So there is also an analysis that such a lack of experience will be vulnerable.

[Kim Hyung-seok]
That's right. But isn't it a matter of pride of the Kursk region on the Russian side? Since we have to repel the Ukrainian military, in a way, the North Korean military will definitely use it so that the situation can be in their favor on the Russian side. So, we will identify those strengths and weaknesses of the North Korean military and put them into battle appropriately. I think we'll have to wait and see.

[Anchor]
But now, the North Korean authorities are not informing the residents about the dispatch. And due to internal agitation and possible backlash, cell phones are not being paid to officers now. So, isn't there a possibility of internal agitation or backlash?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
It won't be completely absent. So, first of all, in North Korea, the so-called Ministry of Foreign Affairs talked about it and responded that it was done by the Ministry of National Defense, but if it was done, it would be an act suitable for international law. However, it is only a matter of time before it spreads, although it has not officially been talked about in the North Korean media or to North Koreans.

So North Korea may also be thinking about this part. So for now, for example, if the North Korean military goes and there are really large-scale deaths, then it will certainly affect the public sentiment in North Korea.

[Anchor]
Isn't it that Chairman Kim Jong-un has recently strengthened security? What kind of background do you think it is?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
If we look at it hopefully, there are children's songs inside North Korea, so we might have strengthened security. If you look at it then, there is something that came out when we were observing during special training.

[Anchor]
It's not an unusual situation. Is this how you see it?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
We'll have to wait and see. In a way, it's called the highest dignity, but he guards with a kind of weapon next to it? I'm showing it to the outside like this. It's also meaningful to show it outwards. From the perspective of ordinary North Koreans, what kind of situation is our supreme leader protected in that way? Then you can write a variety of novels.

[Anchor]
I'd like to hear about the change in North Korea's status. Former Vice Minister Kim Hyung-seok served as Vice Minister of Unification, so North Korea's status was closer to China than to Russia in the past. But recently, relations with Russia have progressed rapidly. How do you see North Korea's external status now?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
I think it's a good day for North Korea now. So in the past, traditionally, China helped a lot. And isn't there actually almost 90% or more trade between North Korea and China? China is still absolutely against North Korea. But now China is in a competitive relationship with the United States on various levels and in a way, it is in a mediation relationship.

As a result, it is not possible to openly support North Korea. But just in time, Russia was desperate right now as Russia went to war in Ukraine. military support, cooperation So, you give them various weapons that North Korea has accumulated so far, and you give them various economic resources that North Korea needs, such as crude oil and coke, and for example, if you send North Korean troops this time, you give them 2,000 dollars per month.

Then, it's more than $200 million a year. You can get foreign currency. So, for North Korea, it's a good time and breathtaking in a way at the moment. And since there are about 10,000 troops, I don't think it's that serious as a whole.

[Anchor]
Yesterday, our defense minister made it clear that he did not consider sending troops to Ukraine, but that a monitoring team was needed. What do you think about this?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
Monitoring is required. Because first of all, the North Korean military participated in the war. Then, various trends in the North Korean military, and then this is basically necessary, but the problem is that this also falls into the category of military dispatch. That's why we need to get consent from the National Assembly here. So that's the problem because there are differences in internal procedures and interpretations. But anyway, apart from all that, it's an internal matter for us.

In terms of our overall national security, the North Korean military has now participated in the war. Then, it is necessary to monitor what kind of situation happens in the process and to prepare such defense and countermeasures to protect our security more firmly.

[Anchor]
Lastly, some people are looking forward to the rapid progress of North Korea-Russia relations, saying, "Isn't North Korea-China relationship estranged?" How do you see it?

[Kim Hyung-seok]
I have no choice but to be relatively estranged right now. One example of that was last week, if you look at it recently. The so-called Chinese army participated in the Korean War, and we did it jointly before, but we did it separately this time. In a way, it's a little less intense. But basically, as I said earlier, there is more than 90% connection between North Korea and China, and ideologies and such, so isn't it possible for China to abandon North Korea because it is estranged? I'm not going to get to that situation.

[Anchor]
North Korea emphasizes that it is a blood alliance with China. I see. Thank you very much. So far, I've been with former Vice Unification Minister Kim Hyung-seok. Thank you.