[Issue ON] First female president vs Strongman coming back to power...Start the main vote.

■ Hosted by: Anchor Lee Youngsoo Kim and Anchor Lee Ha-rin
■ Starring: Cha Doo-hyun, Senior Researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies,

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsON] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The main vote for the next U.S. president has begun.

The world's attention is focusing on whether the first female president will come out or whether Trump will take power again until the last minute. Let's take a look at the presidential election with an expert. We have invited Cha Doo-hyun, a senior researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Welcome.

U.S. presidential election You've watched the situation so far. It's really close. It depends on the polls, what do you think?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
Close. Different polls, particularly in rival states, have different results, sometimes in favor of Vice President Harris in large part, and sometimes that's what gives you the margin of error. So the advantage within the margin of error of 1-2% is nothing. That's why sometimes it came out as Trump's advantage, and sometimes it came out as Harris' advantage. It's going up and down right now, and there are sites that analyze various polls and update them almost every two hours, including the New York Times. This keeps changing in half a day, not in a day, but in half a day. Therefore, in fact, it is difficult for anyone to determine the superiority and inferiority of the current situation in the seven competing states.

[Anchor]
We're showing you the competition stocks graphically in front of you.

If you look at it, who wins more in seven states - Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada - it seems completely determined by who wins more?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
That's right. It's commonly said that it's a middle-of-the-road conservative in the United States, so-called the Rust Belt, which used to be an industrial zone in the past, but is now a little underdeveloped. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are the representative stories of the Lockdown District. In the case of Wisconsin, there are 10 seats left for the electors. Michigan has 15 seats and Pennsylvania has 19. Then, the place that is located south of the latitude is called the sun belt. There's a lot of sunshine. That's what's being said. In Georgia and Georgia, there are 16 seats at stake. Sixteen seats are up for grabs in North Carolina. Then there are 6 seats in Nevada and 11 seats in Arizona. [Anchor] The reason why we painted it red is because of the New York Times analysis on November 5th. It's the average of the polls that have been released so far and the polls that have been released for five days. Now, it turns out that Trump leads five states, and Harris leads two states. Of course, it's within the margin of error.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
If we do that, it's in Trump's favor. But that means that voting has already started in the U.S. about two hours ago, and it could change again on the day of voting. And now, each poll has a different method. However, most of them usually do surveys with about 1,000 people, but when selecting a sample, they generally allocate samples such as age and region. But the problem is that when you vote, you don't necessarily vote according to the sample. Women might do more. Since certain races may do more and there are variables, especially when it is within the margin of error, the difference is almost not different. The key now is how many votes are hidden without revealing the support tendencies of Hidden Harris and Shy Trump, which are commonly said by both sides.

[Anchor]
You briefly said it, but to enjoy the election, you also need to know a unique American election method. Let's watch the video we prepared first and continue with the conversation.

[Anchor]
When President Trump was elected eight years ago, Hillary was 2.1 percentage points ahead of the overall vote. But you lost because you were behind in the number of electors.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
That's the winner-take-all method called WINNER TAX ALL. That's reasonable. So some people argue that the U.S. election system should change, but in fact, in the case of the United States, all 50 states are like one separate country. That's the spirit of American independence. In that sense, in the end, you have to respect each state's choice. We also have a simple majority as a country. Isn't it a principle to be elected if there is even one more vote in the presidential election? So the idea is that all the principles of the state should be respected and that the electors distributed to the state should be allocated to the winner as it is.

[Anchor]
I see. We prepared a graphic of the meaning of the U.S. presidential election numbers, so please explain it.
[Cha Doo-hyun]
As 538 has already said, it's the total number of electors assigned to the 50 states of the United States and Washington, DC. If you divide that by 2, it's 269. There, even one more vote becomes the majority. So 270, 93 seats is the total number of electors in the seven competing states that I mentioned earlier, and then 19 seats is Pennsylvania, which has the largest number of electors. So the truth is, depending on who's taking Pennsylvania, it's going to be very advantageous as a whole.

[Anchor]
This is where candidate Trump was shot while campaigning in Pennsylvania, right? That's how fierce it is.

How do you feel about the current Pennsylvania approval rating right now?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
Pennsylvania's approval rating is also on the ups and downs right now. By the end of November, Vice President Harris was ahead by 1-2%, and since the end of November, this has actually been almost tied or President Trump has been in the lead, but this continues to change in a day. That's why it's too early to jump to conclusions. And most of them have voted in advance, but many people who will vote on the spot expressed their intentions, so the results may vary depending on the early voting rate.

[Anchor]
There are about 81 million voters who voted in advance.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
That's right. It's more than half of the voters, so in the case of the U.S., early voting is released later when the vote is actually counted. That's inevitable. Because mail-in ballots are freely cast in each region. Then, after opening the ballot box for each constituency, we have to sort it again and calculate it. So it takes more time than on-site voting.

[Anchor]
I keep talking about the seven states that are competing for the U.S. presidential election, but it seems that the seven states are losing their meaning of traditional strong regions recently.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
That's right. In the past, Rust Belt was said to be a Democratic advantage area, but this was also won by former President Trump intensively targeting the Rust Belt in the 2016 election. In the case of the Sun Belt, it was traditionally said to be a strong Republican area in the past, but we can't guarantee this place now either.

[Anchor]
You said that traditional strong areas are changing, but in a way, black men, young women, and traditionally supported tendencies are also changing little by little.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
That's right. It should be seen that it's changing now. Black people have generally supported the Democratic Party. That's why he said he might be a supporter of Vice President Harris, but surprisingly, black men have higher approval ratings when they poll President Trump.

[Anchor]
Why is that?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
I think there is also a traditional culture that black men have now. So a little bit about the role of women...

[Anchor]
There has never been a female president in the United States.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
Yes, and there is still a passive attitude toward the emergence of female presidents in the United States, and women should not be considered to be all supporters of Vice President Harris. In the case of white women, support for President Trump is rather strong, but the problem is that white women used to vote according to their husbands' wishes. That's why the campaign itself is now talking about self-voting by white women.

[Anchor]
Let's film Harris without her husband's knowledge, Julia Roberts' commercial made headlines.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
This table can also work to a large extent.

[Anchor]
Is that a commercial to shoot Harris without her husband knowing?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
Hispanics are similar. And traditionally, it was expected that Muslims and others would be relatively strong in support of the Democratic Party, but as the Israeli-Hamas war continues, the Biden administration has become aware that it is not able to strongly restrain Israel, and Muslims will not actively support Trump, but they are breaking away from Harris' support. That's why it's a close game.

[Anchor]
But in the U.S., businessmen and celebrities often declare their support. Tesla Elon Musk, you're running hard to win the Trump nomination.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
In a way, Musk and Bill Gates, who are currently in the high-tech business and are two icons, are divided.

[Anchor]
Bill Gates supports Harris. Musk, who is supporting candidate Trump, is back.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
In the case of Musk, there is also talk about immigration.

[Anchor]
You're going to be a minister, then if you're president Trump?

How much influence did the support of these celebrities have?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
So far, it's hard to say that the election has been going back and forth because of that. However, it can be said that it has a significant impact in situations where it competes for 1-2% like now. Because in the case of Taylor Swift, whether or not she uses her songs in the campaign, she influenced it. In addition, there are articles that say Taylor Swift's fan club sent hundreds of thousands of election encouragement emails personally, so wouldn't these celebrities' activities have a significant impact on this election? Actually, Musk is doing it with money right now.

[Anchor]
A million dollars every day?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
I don't know how much it will affect me now, but it can be seen that it has some influence on the votes.

[Anchor]
He's giving a million dollars to his supporters every day.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
Yes, I'm going to draw lots and give it to you. Musk's movement or, conversely, major broadcasting stars are declaring their support for Harris again. In a way, it might not have any impact just because one or two more people come out, but it cannot be ignored because each state can now be divided by as many as tens of thousands of votes and as few as thousands of votes.

[Anchor]
I think the culture of celebrities' support activities is very different from the elections in Korea, but I wonder when the results will come out. It takes too long to count the results.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
We need to look at it in three steps now. The first thing we say about the results is that when the electoral group structure comes out for each candidate, broadcasters will predict the likely candidate. And then, in each state's election commission, we finally interpret who won the election. In the middle or after that, the winning side makes a victory speech, and as important as that final speech, the defeated candidate gives an acceptance speech when the superiority and inferiority are determined. However, in the case of 2020, it took three days for broadcasters to guess whose side they would go to after the vote was counted. Then, at the local NEC level, it was delayed by another day or two, and the acceptance speech did not come out at the end.

[Anchor]
If candidate Trump loses again this time.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
I think that's very likely. Because it's not completely decided, you can't say you're defeated. If you say there's a problem with Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan, where there are a lot of electors right now, so let's reschedule the ballot box or stop the ballot box, you can be late in deciding who won because of these three. The second is what the election fraud claims to be during this campaign, and it has been confirmed that local election watchdogs obstruct Trump-supporting candidates from voting in advance or have bundles of suspected counterfeiting during the early voting process. Since Pennsylvania is making such claims, I think that even if the local election watchdog interprets the vote like in 2020, it may not recognize it.

[Anchor]
The U.S. vote lasts almost 10,000 days, because the time zone is different. I heard that the exit poll results will be released tomorrow. If the exit poll comes out, won't it be outlined to some extent?

[Cha Doo-hyun]
That's usually the case. But if there is a 1-2% difference in exit polls, that was the same in 2020. Since early voting can change as many times as possible with the release of early voting, it's hard to get a clear outline just by looking at exit polls. However, if the exit polls show Harris leading in exit polls, Since this early voting is likely to be more advantageous after the mail-in ballot is released, it will be outlined then, but exit polls also show that former President Trump wins in a contested state with a 1-2% victory. Then you don't know the result until the end. And even more so, unlike exit polls, early voting was released and pushed back, like 2020. Then I'm sure they'll claim it's an election fraud.

[Anchor]
I don't know if you remember the 2020 presidential election.There was a time when Trump supporters occupied the U.S. Congress. Do you remember? Everyone was punished. At that time, former President Trump also posted an article that seemed to instigate.

[Cha Doo-hyun]
I won't be able to do that this time. Because I was in the office at the time. In the case of a sitting president, of course, there will be very domestic problems, but in some cases, the National Guard may be mobilized. But I'm not currently working. If you make a mistake in inciting violence, you may be arrested.

[Anchor]
I see. I've seen the U.S. presidential election situation that is extremely close and unpredictable. I think it will be confirmed only when the ballot boxes of the seven competing states are opened by the end. Let's stop here. So far, I have been with Cha Doo-hyun, a senior researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Thank you.