[New Square 2PM] Counting votes for the U.S. presidential election...Trump, rival stocks strengthen ②

■ Host: Anchor Park Seok-won. Anchor Um Ji-min
■ Starring: Lim Eun-jung, professor of international studies at Gongju University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN New Square 10AM] when quoting.

[Anchor]
There was also talk about the election of the House and Senate. How can I organize the current situation?

[Lim Eunjung]
The Senate now thought it would win without difficulty, but the Republican side. In the current structure, the Democratic Party was originally slightly more dominant. And the House of Representatives has a Republican majority, so this was a twisted situation once. But anyway, for now, it was predicted that the Republican Party would win without difficulty, but it seems to come out that way as well. Perhaps even in the House of Representatives, the Republican Party is now predicted to have a majority. If this eventually solidifies as well, it should be seen that the American voters eventually support the Republican Party's policies with the power of state administration.

[Anchor]
As I said, if it is solidified like this, the president and the Republican Party, and both the House and the Senate are Republicans. If this happens, it is expected that not only the United States but also various countries where the United States has influence will be affected by the policies pursued by the United States, so what changes do you expect?

[Lim Eunjung]
The most urgent thing right now is the situation in Europe. How can we organize the situation in Europe? This is a very ambivalent feeling for me, and I'm asking a lot of people serious questions. Who wants a war? The war should be settled as soon as possible, but the question is how to deal with it. Then it's going to end up being a bit of an advantage for Putin of Russia who started the war, eventually. Then it ends in favor of those who started the war? This suggests too much for the entire human race living in 2024 now.

So, if you look at the so-called Western European countries or the United States that are trying to stop it somehow, the position of those who can support the Democratic Party now, and on the other hand, the problem of making a living is urgent, so some people may think that they should sort out the war somehow and just look at the U.S. moving forward. If you say that the choice will be solidified with the latter, you will put down the norms and values for a while and become a world of complete realism. To borrow the terms of our international political scientists, it's a realist world. At that time, the question of what Korea should be like is a moment when we deepen our worries.

[Anchor]
As you said, if candidate Trump becomes president again, we are most curious and sensitive about what effect it will have on Korea. Which part will be the most important?

[Lim Eunjung]
I think we need to find a proper balance somewhere between the so-called alliance and self-defense, which is just getting caught up in this kind of so-called vortex, and it's a lot more complicated because the war in Ukraine continues to get worse and North Korea is involved here now. It's a situation where not only us but also Japan and China are very nervous about looking at this war. However, in this situation, Trump prioritizes his own interests, which he has not seen very well before, and rather than talking about allies or the values mentioned earlier or such liberal norms, national interests first.

First of all, when we say that we go to the line that the first thing to do is to take care of the interests of Korea, the so-called United States, and when we say that whether it is a contribution to defense costs or deploy strategic assets, it does not end in terms of the cost, but furthermore, if your country says that you cannot and will not be able to care about security like this, then it seems that the time has come for our society to seriously think about how to handle this.

[Anchor]
I think it's going to be a day or two tomorrow when I have a lot of worries, but when I look back on the US presidential election, there were a lot of unprecedented events. The Democratic candidate was replaced, and in the case of Trump, he was the target of a shooting and assassination attempt. Things like this. So, when you look at the presidential election as a whole, what would you pick as the most decisive point and decisive scene?

[Lim Eunjung]
It's widely believed that it didn't have a significant numerical impact on voters' votes.Ma nevertheless, I think the assassination attempt was the most shocking. Of course, the president of the United States was actually assassinated and killed, and there were frequent assassination attempts.Ma, compared to our society. Nevertheless, it was Trump's reaction, rather than the assassination attempt itself, but as you remember, he said we had to fight by clenching our fists.

Who is the fight for has also come to me as a question, and is it a fight against the so-called establishment Washington elite, China challenging the hegemony of the United States, or Putin of Russia, for example, disrupting order. And I think that's the question of who it is, and I think it's probably caused a lot of complicated minds within the American people, within the voters.

{ 낙태}There is also an abortion problem.Is Ma talking about these social issues, or is the so-called PCE, a fight against excessive political correctness? Anyway, it's a scene where I asked a lot of big questions, so it's very impressive to me, and I think that one picture will continue to be talked about in American political history.

[Anchor]
Just before the vote this time, there was a saying that how much female voters went to the polls would be the key. Given the situation so far, whether women's power was not so great or not, whether it affected this vote. And I have many thoughts about whether the American society is not ready to accept a female president.

[Lim Eunjung]
This is because the election results come out, so I have to analyze the votes closely and tell you more accurately.Ma, for example, the daughters of the so-called Republican politicians, these people, I shot the Republican Party, but the President shot Harris, and this became a hot topic in the news. But this so-called election has a generational problem and a gender issue on top of that, which we've been looking at now, maybe there were a lot of white women in the end among Shy Trumps. I can see a lot of white women wearing maga hats on the screen.There's nothing wrong with Ma.

We need to reflect on the fact that you can do it based on your beliefs, but in a way, we might have thought about it in a dichotomous way, and the question of whether you're ready or not to accept a female president is, well, that's very cautious.Ma, I remember we also had a female president and we had a similar debate then.Because being a woman itself is social progress, and being a woman does not necessarily represent any symbol or representation of progress. I think these are issues that we should think deeply about once again as those of us who run a democratic society, but it seems hard to deny that the American society is not easy.

Because America is such a huge country. Physically, I'm too huge. There's a time difference in 50 states, and as we've been looking at the election results, there's a huge physical country, there's a wide variety of races, and even the most problematic thing right now is that I'm at war, as I keep emphasizing. I think that this war situation directly or indirectly affected the psychology of the voters. Even if it's clearly not on the index compared to hot domestic issues, inflation and abortion, I would guess that there was a popular desire for a strong leader rather than Harris in terms of what kind of leader the United States should want in this age of China's Xi Jinping, which has come up tremendously in carrying out what is called war.

[Anchor]
What do you think about the direction in which President Trump will try to solve the situations of such wars that are being fought here and there internationally? What direction would Trump go if he were confirmed as president?

[Lim Eunjung]
It's a matter of extreme interest. I talk about my friendship with Putin or even with Chairman Kim Jong-un.Ma sees the situation now so different from when he made friends with Putin or Kim Jong-un. Because it's different, I also want Trump to settle the war quickly if he's really elected, but I don't know if Putin will respond accordingly when he says he's trying to do so, for example, whether it's negotiated, negotiated, or some pressure on Europe.

Putin is a tremendous strategist, so I think this could be a hell of a struggle. I think it could be a bit of a struggle. Some people and I agree with that. At times like this, we've had to take the center of our attention, especially when it comes to our relationship with China.At this stage, China will also be very nervous, so I think the time is coming for Asian countries and neighboring countries to put their heads together and talk again.

[Anchor]
In particular, in the case of President Putin, it would be World War III if the U.S. intervenes after the North Korean military's participation in the Russia-Ukraine war is revealed, but will such a sharp phase of friendship between President Trump and President Putin, who he claims, work positively? This part is questionable.

[Lim Eunjung]
That's right. Moreover, the enormous anger plus doubt that the American people now have in Russia, doubt, and unreliable. For example, if you look at the news now, I don't know if it's necessary to talk about it now, but there were some incidents in Georgia. In the voting process now. It might be that the machine is not working well, or that there are explosives, or that this email is a Russian domain. And now, the era is called Cyber Plus cognitive warfare. In the past, of course, psychological warfare continued. Since it is the so-called Internet world, the so-called cognitive warfare that moves the minds of voters through the information we encounter is a complex era, so I think it would be great to be wary of Putin or Russia.

That's why Trump talked to Putin. I'm predicting that eventually we'll end up putting some pressure on our European allies, cutting off support, and eventually trying to fix it, but on the other hand, even in the United States, where it's hard to accept it. I think there will be such U.S. citizens, so anyway, it would not be an exaggeration to say that how to settle the situation in Europe is the most important issue for the time being. For the time being, I think this issue will have to be the top priority for a few months at the earliest or a year at the most.

[Anchor]
The AP just released a breaking news. Candidate Trump won North Carolina and Georgia and got some breaking news a little while ago that he is close to recapturing the White House. I can read the atmosphere of whether the victory is getting a little more solid. If this happens, I think it's Elon Musk who will like it the most, but Tesla's stock price is soaring and it's reacting now. How do you see it?

[Lim Eunjung]
In addition, the market is sensitive now with coins, and the capitalist market is the first to react like this, and I feel this again. If Elon Musk is a true talent, he's a talent. There are definitely some outstanding parts, and there are definitely parts that lead the times. SpaceX recently saw the projectile settle back into place, and I was really surprised that this was possible in a private company. In short, the federal government has a lot of money to leak when they talk with Trump. It is inefficient.

They are people who have been in the company because they want to organize these parts. That's how I see it. Also, I think a large part of the American electorate would have agreed on this. I'm also a public servant.When a public service organization becomes bloated at some point, it becomes bloated, and at that moment, inefficiency continues to accumulate, administrative costs increase, and the tax revenue leaks here and there. It doesn't even end with money leaks, but parts that can't be decided. It's because it's going to be too much.

These are all problems that have been seen with the eyes of the huge country called the United States. Didn't we see the shutdown of the federal government during Obama as well? So I'll sort out those things. Of course, the state is not a company, but there must be parts that exist for the public interest, but I think Elon Musk and Trump's voices to clean up this inefficiency must have resonated. Also, if the victory is solidified and Elon Musk takes on the ministerial position that the two people he talked about agreed to, attention is being paid to what kind of steps he will take.

[Anchor]
Then at this point, let's connect to CNN and listen to the local reports.

[Interview]
But the voters didn't want them to take on Trump's policies either. If you look at the results of this election. Still, I think if Trump is elected, there is a possibility that some legislation will be blocked in the Senate. Because you still need 60 votes to legislate. But in the cabinet, not just in one administration, but in the case of appointments in another judiciary, Republicans can pass it as they want.

In the case of the Supreme Court, it has ruled that the administration cannot do what it wants and must be approved by Congress. Even if the Democratic Party becomes a minority in the House and Senate now, the Democratic Party can block the administration's legislation. The Trump administration can't go back on that. We talked about what would happen if Trump was elected.

[Anchor]
Breaking news on the results of the vote count. It's the result of competing stocks. In Pennsylvania, Trump leads Harris with 51.1 percent of the vote, compared with 47.8 percent. It's leading by almost 220,000 votes. The vote count is 95%. In Michigan, Trump leads by about 240,000 votes with 52.4 percent and Harris 45.8 percent. The vote count is 66%. In Wisconsin, Trump leads by more than 120,000 votes compared to Harris' 47.1%. The vote count is 89%. Trump of Arizona is leading by 16,000 votes with 50% and Harris by 49.1%. The vote count is 53%. In Nevada, Trump is leading by 37,000 votes with 51 percent and Harris by 47.4 percent. The vote count is about 70 percent.

[Anchor]
I'm looking at the map. The only question that remains now is whether Harris can win Pennsylvania or not, if she loses, there is no chance that she can win the presidency. Even if Trump loses, he can win if he wins other states. As you can see, three of the so-called Democratic strong-area barriers are now led by Trump. Let's start with
Pennsylvania. It's a contestant.

Trump's leading gap is about 220,000 votes. With 93% of the votes counted, it seems quite difficult to reverse this difference. So, it seems that Harris will be able to overcome this gap only if she wins a landslide victory in the remaining unfinished votes. Let's take a look at each county. In Philadelphia County, Trump currently gets 21% of the vote and Harris gets 78% of the vote.

When Joe Biden won in 2020, he got 81% of the vote and Trump got 18%. In the case of Bucks County, 51.7 percent of Biden and 47.3 percent of Trump four years ago. In this year's case, Trump is leading by 50%. If Trump takes this Bucks County, he's going to win it all the way to Pennsylvania. It is home to a large number of blue-collar workers. It's a place with a lot of police and firefighters. That's where Trump is leading the way. It's a county that's still in a contested area, but you're going to have to take it here, but you're going to be able to win Pennsylvania. In the case of

Lehigh County, there has been a lot of discussion about whether Trump will lose Hispanic votes because of the Madison Square Garden incident.Ma is currently leading Harris by about 50 percent.Ma falls short of Biden's vote share four years ago.

At the time of 2020, the COVID-19 crisis was ongoing, and candidate Trump was the weakest. Compared to then, Harris is not ahead of Biden. So it doesn't seem to have received a lot of votes from blue-collar voters. It seems that we need to discuss in the future whether this is due to something or racism or for other reasons. In the case of Luzerney County, it's a conservative county. If Harris is going to win Pennsylvania, she's going to have to close the gap here. Compared to four years ago, Harris has a lower share of the vote than Biden. In other words, it's losing by a bigger margin. in the remaining votes
[Anchor]
Through CNN's vote counting broadcast, you saw candidate Trump leading in various competing states, and in the midst of this, breaking news came in. The presidential office said it expects the opportunity for communication between Yoon Suk Yeol and the president-elect to be prepared soon depending on the results of the U.S. presidential election. This is what an official from the presidential office met with reporters today. "When a potential winner makes a declaration of victory and the opponent makes a declaration of a loser and a congratulatory message about it, we believe the timing for our leaders to move begins," he said.

and North Korean troops dispatched to Russia were also expressed. I don't think the North Korean military's full-fledged battle has begun, he said. It is not possible to confirm whether there were other reconnaissance activities or pre-prepared activities by small personnel, but what our government is keeping an eye on is whether the fighting has begun. He also stressed the need to send a battlefield monitoring team to understand what tactics North Korea and Russia are using if fighting begins. He then explained that the dispatch of individual units after the dispatch of troops does not require the consent of the National Assembly and is possible through the policy decision of the Minister of National Defense.

You've seen the vote count on CNN.Ma seems to have more and more places ahead of Trump. First of all, it looks like victory is solidifying. Now, Trump supporters are seen gathering in West Palm Beach, Florida, and Trump is expected to be moving here. Looks like I'm going to give a speech for supporters, but at this point, I'm wondering, is it before the polls start? The Economist announced a 56% chance of Harris winning and a 43% chance of former President Trump. How could this analysis be so badly wrong? Of course, we need to see it until the end. In the current situation, I think so.

[Lim Eunjung]
Each investigative agency has different numbers, so for example, in The Hill's case, they also saw Trump as more dominant. There may be distortions of the sample that each institution receives, and of course, efforts to correct it have been made. So I have to tell you that it was too difficult this time to blame the institution.

[Anchor]
You're watching Palm Beach right now, and there's an atmosphere where it feels like we're about to arrive. We've heard of Lee Jung-mi in California a while ago, but there was a voter interview in the middle, and the voter mentioned the border issue. It was a voter's position against opening the border, so Trump and the Republican Party put a lot of emphasis on the establishment of a border blockade, while Democratic candidate Harris emphasized the issue of abortion rights, but in the end, this issue, especially abortion rights, did not have a big impact on the presidential election, so can we interpret it that way until now? How do you see it?

[Lim Eunjung]
It was an important issue. Of course, this is a gender issue, but on the other hand, the U.S. also asked whether the federal system would allow it to be done differently on a state-by-state basis in operating the federal system or whether it would have a unified one at the federal level, so the issue of abortion was not important at all, but the issue that most directly touches voters is economy and inflation. And it's the same with immigration issues and people coming in illegally, even if it's not scientifically related, in the end, that frame has been formed.

As they come in and form a frame such as, for example, committing various crimes or taking away your job, I think it would have touched the people living in difficult times. Especially in the southern part of the country, people feel that more. Those who are in the border area. So, for example, if the abortion issue was a matter of value or the identity of a country called the United States, it could be said that the votes were more valid in areas closer to real life.

[Anchor]
This is what Fox News reported just now. The news that candidate Trump won Pennsylvania, the biggest destination, just broke the news. Many analysts said that if candidate Trump returns again, what impact he will have on the economy, and that if Harris becomes president, he will be no different from President Biden, and Trump has announced various pledges, such as imposing massive tariffs on other countries, right? What impact do you expect?

[Lim Eunjung]
From our point of view, what bothered us the most was how much did we do the Korea-US FTA after many twists and turns? However, it is a past story, but if you look back on that time, it was an FTA that was done after a lot of twists and turns, and it came out like this, so I'm concerned that it's very protectionist, and on the other hand, I keep talking about war, but if you think about energy, it's a double-edged sword or something that's good and bad. For example, as the situation in Russia is now like this, European countries have no choice but to restrict gas imported from Russia.

In the meantime, imports from the United States are increasing, and for example, under the assumption that Harris was elected, it is not easy to bring in the traditional fossil fuel industry to Russia. If even the United States says that it is not a reliable source of supply worldwide, it could have an impact on the global market. And in Korea, the amount of imports from the United States is considerable.

It was, but in a way, it is assumed that Trump will focus his efforts on exports as well. Traditional fossil fuels are. If the positive part is that it can be stabilized, on the other hand, how will he provide policy support for low-carbon technology in response to climate change, so-called renewable energy? We have invested a lot in the U.S. because of IRAs and many Korean companies, and I'm worried about these parts being hit. For example, there are not only plus or minus points. I think we need to be flexible.

[Anchor]
I wonder if the protectionism you mentioned and the economic policy of prioritizing domestic companies will continue, but how can Korean companies in the United States respond to the situation where the atmosphere is set to some extent?

[Lim Eunjung]
Now, I think companies are doing a lot of various reviews as economic players, and they're actually going to find a way. Because I think companies will always find a way to find a way even when politics is difficult, for example, when Korea-Japan relations are not good. For example, in the future, consultations with the United States or with American companies. Whether it's a form of joint venture, I think you're already thinking about making it more systematically interwoven, such as cooperating with each other, and I think we should deal with Trump's own strategies and policies wisely.

[Anchor]
We are also interested in how North Korea will react if candidate Trump takes the presidency again. What do you expect?

[Lim Eunjung]
It's hard to say what this is. From Kim Jong-un's point of view, there may be something he was hoping for. I don't know how he feels. But let me just objectively say, as an international political scientist, Europe is more urgent. The situation in Europe is very serious, so it will not be easy to expect any negotiations with North Korea right now or in the medium to short term.

That may be the disappointing part for Kim Jong Un.Anyway, what we're concerned about is that we can't really simply see that we're involved in the war in Ukraine, that we can go to war together, that we can develop this by sharing technology, some experience, the capabilities of conducting operations. North Korea's technology or military capabilities. And in the end, doesn't this remain an experience? This means that it will remain a debt to Russia as well. These things are not good right now.

So I believe our government will do a good job.In the end, in this current situation, we need to talk a lot with countries in similar situations like ours, talk with China, and find wisdom through dialogue, but paradoxically, I think it is time to be more active in diplomacy because it is an era of realism.

[Anchor]
In fact, suspicions have been raised about whether Russian technology was used in the intercontinental ballistic missile that North Korea recently test-fired, and this seems to be a very important part. I told you earlier that the Senate election was also held during the presidential election, and we also connected with representative Kim Dong-seok and heard about him as a Korean-American. Rep. Andy Kim has been elected to the Senate. How do you see the meaning?

[Lim Eunjung]
It's such a pleasure. I remember that the incident on January 6th became a hot topic in our country as well. Rep. Andy Kim kneeling and cleaning is still very much in my mind. earnestly I also had a few opportunities to meet him. I know that he is recognized as a person who is a very minor minority, but is faithfully engaged in legislative activities, and I hope he continues to be healthy.

[Anchor]
I see. So far, Lim Eun-jung, a professor of international studies at Gongju National University, has looked at the U.S. presidential election situation and prospects for the future.