U.S. presidential election, why Harris was forced to lose out to Trump?

◆ [YTN Radio SHINYUL's news]
■ Broadcasting: FM 94.5 (17:00-19:00)
■ Air date: November 6, 2024 (Wednesday)
■ Proceedings: Shin Yul, Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy at Myongji University
■ Talk: Choi Kwang-chul, head of the Forum on Democratic Participation in the Americas

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.

- U.S. election, Trump vs. anti-Trump battle
- Harris, issue mall completely behind Trump
- Harris, 80% of the pledge didn't have her voice
- 67% white voters... U.S. conservative 'beyond imagination'
- The glass ceiling for 'women and people of color' is clear
- The U.S., my food, my safety is the most important reality
- During the Biden administration, 3.5 million illegal immigrants flooded in
- Hispanics took Trump to protect their vested interests.
- Existing Immigrants Kicked Up Ladder
- Harris 'ignores unconditionally' Putin and Kim Jong-un... Compare to Trump
- Trump likely to start talks with North Korea within two years of his term
- Andy Kim's most recognized Senate in the Democratic Party for military diplomacy

◆ Shin Yul: Shin Yul's news head-to-head match begins part 3. The topic to be covered in today's part three face-to-face interview. Let me think about the results of today's U.S. presidential election. Choi Kwang-chul, CEO of the American Forum for Democratic Participation, is in the studio. Please come in.

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol: Hello, professor.

◆ Shin Yul: But I'm at the American Democratic Participation Forum. How are you here?

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: I'm now the American Forum on Democratic Participation is Balantier. And I'm a businessman who runs a company personally. After the early voting, I'll be with my family, and then I'll come in for a business meeting for a while and then a few days later.

◆ Sin Yul: I see. But now Trump is almost the former president of Trump, right?

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol: I just made a victory speech.
◆ [Voiceover] We did a speech. But I think the victory speech is strategic. In fact, former President Trump has filed this lawsuit in about 30 places.

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol : 130

◆ Shin Yul: Is it 130? I hung it up. I hung it up, but I think it's because I have to hit this first beforehand to have something to say in the lawsuit later.

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: I think 130 lawsuits probably meant that, but the fact is that Reuters, Fox News, and the media are all declaring victory. And then a while ago,

◆ I'm sure it's Fox.

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: I did it on Fox, and Reuters. Maybe the media is now saying that the New York Times just won 95% of the time, and the important thing is that it's almost 3% ahead of the national vote, not just in competing states.

◆ Sin Yul: That's right. It's weird. The difference in the vote is

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: This means a lot.

◆ Voiceover: That's right. But how do you judge that the atmosphere was originally tilted towards Trump?

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: I've never personally intended to take a picture of President Trump, but in an objective analysis, I kept talking about President Trump's election. But when I saw the Korean media this morning, yesterday's show was The Economist and Nate Silver

◆ Shin Yul: You have to put that in front of you. An economist who says he's never been wrong.

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol: That's where we suddenly win 56-43. Nate Silver also changed his position and said Harris will win. It's a very credible public opinion organization called FiveThirtyEight, and it's ahead of them. Until this morning, a lot of experts said they were predicting Harris' victory, but as you know, there's a part where we haven't been able to catch up with the Democratic Party in terms of preoccupying issues by President Trump. First of all, the problem of living, the problem of economy and inflation, and the problem of safety, so we brought up the border problem with that. And at first, because of the voter's desire for change in the U.S., Lee was replaced by Harris, expanding his approval rating by about 10% in his own way.

◆ Sin-ryul: It's a convention effect.

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: It was a convention effect. In fact, this election itself is seen as a Trump vs. anti-Trump election. So, however, as it has been verified for the past two and a half months, there is no self-promise or voice in the pledge book, which is close to 80% of the page. Policies have lagged far behind, especially on economic border issues, as they have been shown. So, at the end of the day, Julia Roberts and women were making Julia Roberts commercials and raising abortion issues, but abortion issues were not really the primary issue. Of course, in the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats benefited greatly anyway from the abortion issue. But now, we write down such issues first, and the other thing is that we can't easily say this, but 67% of American society is still white voters. And 15% are now black, 14.5% are Hispanic, and 5% are Asian, and it's not easy for these 67% of white voters to vote for. There is definitely a glass ceiling, especially for women or candidates of color. This is what was shown.

◆ Sin Yul: I was going to ask you that. When Harris was first nominated, when I talked to a reporter from another media company, the U.S. is much more conservative than I thought. So when this woman comes out, of course, in Europe, we have British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and I think that there's never been a U.S. and there's a reason why. So I thought it wouldn't be easy, but when it came out for the first time, my approval rating was going up. But in the end, when I looked at the results, it turned out that way.

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: That's right. So this time, 35% of white people are now white men and 32% are white women, and 32% of them actually gave more votes to Trump when Hillary Clinton ran and President Biden ran. But actually, we probably didn't have enough time to change it like this. That's how it looks.

◆ Shin-ryul: Anyway, as far as I know, there were a number of things that were considered the most important issues in the poll, and I remember that the first place was democracy, second place was abortion, third place was economy, and so I think the Democratic Party did it by attacking and emphasizing Trump's authoritarian tendencies because of that, but I don't think that's what CEO Choi said.

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: That's right. As Professor Hana said, why is the economic problem and the immigrant problem important? Especially when talking about immigrants, it seems that minority and Hispanic votes will turn this way.

◆ Sin-ryul: Hispanics tend to be conservative.

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: Originally, we shot a lot of Democrats, but the problem with this is that about 300 to 3.5 million people came in a year during the last Biden administration. In Latin America, illegal immigrants come in from as small as 15 million and as many as 20 million, and those people harm our safety and get us caught. But who is the one who takes away the job? In fact, Hispanic

◆ Sin-ryul: I take it from this side in the same pie, so people who stay legally who are not illegal now have no choice but to be dissatisfied.

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: So rather, the Hispanics have taken Trump to a considerable degree this time. So to put this simply, vested interests have already come to the United States and have some success and foundation in a lot of trouble, but I don't like the influx of new people. So if we talk about it often, it became a form of kicking the ladder we climbed.

◆ Sin-ryul: Actually, we call it the PC movement, so political correctness was considered very important in the past, but I think it's becoming a situation where it doesn't exceed honesty, and I think Trump caught it best. So what I'm saying is that despite Trump's side talking about trash, I think I read it well anyway. When I said it was Puerto Rico's trash, this was a bit too much. I thought, "Isn't this going to go over?" But this is what happened.

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol: Especially in Puerto Rico, it's the second most populous of immigrants, so Hispanic immigrants. So there are a lot of Mexican Americans and about 3 million Puerto Ricans on the mainland, but about 5 million immigrants to the U.S., especially in the East, or Florida, and then New York and Pennsylvania. So I think there are about 400,000 people in Pennsylvania. But when we won under President Biden, we were only a few thousand votes away from Pennsylvania. There are now more than 130,000 votes in this election. This time, Trump won a landslide victory, but it's very ironic right now. The whole analysis is that the Puerto Ricans are going to lose Heathlant, they're not. The reality is that even though I am of the same race and my safety, the voters judge that the safety of themselves and their families is more important than that.

◆ Shin Yul: But anyway, I think Trump has just started his 2nd generation, but the Korean people are worried about a lot of things like that now. Actually, that's what I think. I think it's the same as Trump, Harris, and America First. I think Trump and Harris have the same purpose, but they have different approaches. So, in Harris' case, they value allies very much, while Trump thinks of allies as a kind of deal-making business, which is actually very different. So I think I'll be a little worried about Korea now. But how do you watch it? What do you think of the Korean Americans?

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: Americans generally support Harris when it comes to Republicans with Trump and Harris' Democratic Party, about 7 to 3. Since we're a minority, it's changed a lot this time. The issue that has changed a lot this time is that taking pictures of Trump was about abortion, gay relationship, evangelical Christianity, and very conservative people tended to support Trump, but most of them were supportive of the Democratic Party because of their rejection of immigrant policies and white supremacy, but what I thought was meaningful this time was that I told Andy Kim to pass it on to the Harris camp, for example, President Biden and President Obama to strategic patience, strategic disregard, and who said, "It's hostile patience, but you just sit down and do nothing. And during this election, for example, party conferences, When and when ABC discussion and is it 3 days before last? Harris speeches repeatedly do not talk to dictators like Putin and Kim Jong Un. Of course, it's good to put pressure on it, but the leader's virtue is that he will always find a diplomatic solution and bring peace, and he was compared a lot with Trump. So conservative votes went to Trump, but there are a lot of Korean votes that have to come to the Democratic Party again. I told Andy Kim three weeks ago. Since there is this concern, we need to quickly deliver such a message to Harris to the camp. But I couldn't. I think a Chuseok message came out then. President Biden and Harris have that part for Koreans. And I totally agree with the professor that the United States is America First, no matter which party or president it is. And the part that came out with the slogan Maga during the first Trump period was unusual, but now President Biden has received everything President Trump has done. That's why all manufacturers come to the United States. Korea also invested 130 trillion won over there. Samsung, Hanwha, LG, and others make us invest in a series of trade surpluses we take to the United States, which is about $4 million, which is 46 trillion won. And so Biden, in a way, has a worse America first. We also made a lot of achievements like that. So in that economic, trade, trade, trade sense, I think it's probably going to last, but Biden's foreign, defense, and security policy is multilateral priority. It's about prioritizing alliances, but I think there's a catch. In the meantime, I'm not going to send the U.S. military to war while doing nothing, but in fact, it's a multilateral priority. Where is the Iraq War now before or before Ukraine? After the withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Biden is not doing those things that will come at the expense of a direct physical soldier like Trump. But now that we've talked about it, one of the things that President Trump is very concerned about is defense costs. So, our defense budget is about 1.3 trillion won, and our defense budget is about 60 trillion won. It's about 1.3 trillion there, and is it now October 6th? It's Article 15 because I raised it a little bit to do it before the presidential election in the United States.

◆ Sin Yul: Doesn't that mean Trump is going to do it all over again with Article 13?

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: But I'd like to see this. Now, that's all for me. I probably win the citizenship of the United States in my country, but it's not good to overcoat it like that, but you have to look at this. On the other hand, the reason why Americans think Trump is good at the economy during the Trump administration is because there is a huge difference compared to prices during the three years of the pandemic. In reality, that's why I think we're doing well, but based on the price of gas, the Korean people also lost money. When Trump took office, he paid about 1,300 won. Per liter. But there is a saying that the average difference between the Biden administration and the Biden administration is 1,750, 1,800 won. So when you lead the economy well, the burden that comes with it is less. On the contrary, of course, there are certain areas where we lose money economically. Normally, I would like to explain the other thing like this, but if Trump promised, he will achieve exchanges and cooperation between the two Koreas and the U.S. So I'm hopeful that this defense cost is not the problem, but that the overall costs of money that we spend on defense as a whole will be saved a lot. And I think President Trump will probably start talking to North Korea in a couple of years, particularly on foreign and defense issues, in a couple of years in office.

◆ Sin Yul: But one of the reasons why I'm worried about a lot of things is to talk, of course, it's not bad. However, when asked about what topics to talk about, the biggest concern for Korean scholars now is that Trump is likely to engage in nuclear disarmament negotiations when he talks with North Korea. That means that North Korea is recognized as a nuclear power. From North Korea's point of view, this is now the most worrisome, and in fact, the second thing is that Biden has done nothing. But many people think that it's better to do nothing than do it like Trump. The reason is that Trump said he would talk, but during the conversation, North Korea continued to develop nuclear weapons. So, people are saying that they have 60 or dozens of them. So, what's our dilemma in that regard is that inter-Korean talks are good, but the important thing is that we can go out with North Korea acknowledging its nuclear weapons, and Trump will definitely talk about the nuclear umbrella and the cost of it. So, I think there is a very high possibility that there will be public opinion on its own nuclear armament.

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol: I think it's very high right now. I heard about it the other day, especially at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, we need to implement Korea's nuclear armament. I don't know if President Trump will tolerate that, but it seems that the State Department or the Defense Department in the United States will probably oppose it. But President Trump has something to look meaningful. During the first Trump period, this breakthrough in the U.S. State Department's Defense Department, so public officials and bureaucrats coordinated and blocked such things. The reason why Trump speculates that this is possible now is because the people surrounding Trump are especially in the campaign. In particular, Vice President Vence and the one who was an Independent candidate this time, rose to about 15% and then dropped by 5%, so he declared. Robots Junior Kennedy and Democratic Congressman Tulsi Gabbard, who went to Iraq and sent troops to Afghanistan. But there's something they all talk about in common. First of all, there is a part in the United States that repeatedly says that there is no war for the benefit of the neocon Gunsan complex. So, this part may have some conflict with the organization of civil servants who were in charge of foreign affairs and security in the United States, but there is a lot of possibility that it will be implemented at Trump's will.

◆ Shin Yul: So anyway, from our point of view, it's kind of weird, but no, Andy Kim's story is something to celebrate. He's been in the House of Representatives for three terms. I've been in the Senate for three terms, and this time, it's been 6 years. Now, that's right. It's been in the Senate for six years, and in fact, a lot of people are just senators, but the power of the U.S. Senate is powerful.

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: The U.S. Senate is so often referred to as the president of the state. For example, someone committed a crime and was sentenced to death. The United States still carries out executions.

◆ Synonym: Yes, some states

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: So do you know what I keep praying for before the execution day approaches? That's the governor's pardon. Just as the governor has the power to save his life, the governor's power is huge. Of course, governors in 54 states of the Electoral College, like California, have two more senators than congressmen in Wyoming, but senators representing 50 states in the United States have enormous power and status. Andy Kim has been very lucky this time, but he is gaining ground as a rising next-generation leader.

◆ Sin-ryul: He said that Trump supporters are now the next president of Trump, but he went out after that speech.
◇ Kwang-cheol Choi : January 6th

◆ Shin Yul: Didn't you clean it all by yourself when you broke into the Capitol? It seems to have become very imprinted on Americans.

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol: Actually, professor, today, Andy Kim told me to come to his celebration party and to New Jersey, but he only sent me a message saying, "Congratulations because I'm in Korea right now." Andy Kim said, "Our Korean people are interested in it, and Andy Kim promised us that the Republic of Korea is no longer in such a tight relationship with the U.S. diplomacy, defense, and security. As the world's 10th largest economy, I made a promise for an equal alliance. He even promised to propose a comprehensive Korean Peninsula peace bill for peace and equal alliances. But the fact that he's going to be in New Jersey is that he's probably going to be a vice presidential candidate once, but he's likely to be in the federal Senate for a long time, if not. And Andy is the most recognized member of the Democratic Party for military diplomacy. Not an ordinary member of Congress,

◆ Shin Yul: An expert who says he is an expert

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: You served as a military adviser to the NSC under President Obama. We also had the war in Afghanistan. That's why he's chosen by Obama. So even now, Democratic leaders like Andy very much. So there were about 205 Democrats out of the 435 House of Representatives who were not treated as mediocre but recognized and educated as the top foreign, defense, and security expert. I was a Ross Scholar at Oxford University, and what I really like about Andy is that he just went to community college. I came out of a small college near Yosemite California and succeeded in this way, but the black spoon

◆ Shin Yul: If you say college, then yes, yes, but he's the first generation of immigration. You're 2 years old?

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol: I'm two years old. My father came,

◆ Shin Yul: This person was born in the U.S.

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol : So I listen to Korean well

◆ Shin Yul: Yes, I know, but

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: I listen well, but I can't speak Korean.

◆ Shin Yul: But besides Andy Kim, there are cases of Korean people this time.

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol: Professor, it was a very important election to improve the political power of Koreans. Andy Kim is the Democratic Party. Another person named Xunzi in Tacoma, Washington state, called Xunzi.
◆ There was also a movie named Xunzi.

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol: It's Berlin Steelland, and this person is also a member of Longter Village, and it's done again this time. Also, I'm grateful that our local constituency is Irvine, Orange County, California, which Koreans know well, and Dave Min is not well known in Korea, where a federal lawmaker named Carrie Forer went to the Senate and became vacant, but Harvard Law School professor Yush Irvine is currently winning by 10%.

◆ [Voiceover] It's not over yet.

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol: It's a little late in California, but I think it's probably 70 to 80% by now. By the time I reached about 60% before,

◆ Shin Yul: There are about four to five people in our country.

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol: And two more people, there is a high probability that the Republican Party will become the Republican Party even though it is Young Kim.

◆ Didn't it come out last time, too?

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: If he's elected now, he'll be elected as the third term. But one is the same Republican as Misha Stilpak, and the one who competes is now the first Vietnamese candidate for the federal parliament, and it's about 2% behind that, so it's very close.

◆ Shin-yul: No, actually, there should be a lot of successful Korean-Americans because lobbying is legal in the United States as well as those who live there. So it's easier for our government to reach out to the U.S. government, and in this respect, we have to pay attention to that. Anyway, I was busy somewhere. Oh, but when did you say you were going to go even though you were so busy?

◇ Choi Kwang-chul: I'm going to stay until this weekend and then go back. As soon as I got back, I visited the U.S. Congress and now there is a very meaningful bill in the U.S. Congress called the Korean Peninsula Peace Bill. So, 48 Democrats and 4 Republicans supported it, including Andy Kim, and four key Trump aides proposed a bill, and if you keep North Korea like this, you've seen it this time, but Ukraine is also sending troops and sticking to Russia. There is a bill that calls for a quick declaration of the end of the war with North Korea and a peace treaty to establish diplomatic relations between the U.S. and North Korea and establish a liaison office to start dialogue even if it is not an official embassy, and I think this bill will be a great help to the next administration. Because of this, I have to go straight to Washington again.

◆ Sin-ryul: Anyway, we have to think a little bit about establishing diplomatic relations between North Korea and the U.S., but peace is important anyway. It's all the more important what peace means. Let's stop here today. Thank you.

◇ Choi Kwang-cheol: Thank you, professor.

◆ Shin Yul: This has been Choi Kwang Chul, CEO of the American Forum on Democratic Participation.