Realmeter CEO Lee Taek-soo said, "President 尹's approval rating will not fall further."Conservative rallying effect is clear"

◆ [YTN Radio SHINYUL's news]
■ Broadcasting: FM 94.5 (17:00-19:00)
■ Air date: November 8, 2024 (Friday)
■ Proceedings: Shin Yul, Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy at Myongji University
■ Bold: Lee Taek-soo, Realmeter Representative

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.

- President Park 尹's approval rating will not drop further
- Additional recording of Myung Tae-kyun between the weekend is a 'variable'
- The more the government is in crisis, the more the conservative rallying effect is clear
- First Lady Kim, who ranks first in 尹's negative evaluation... At the time of Park Geun Hye's impeachment, the approval rating will rise even if the number of negative reports related to Mrs. Kim is reduced

◆ Shin Yul: Let's start the 4th part of Shin Yul's news head-to-head competition. I'm Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Realmeter, who will meet in the front interview for the fourth part today. You're supposed to come out to the studio, but there's too much traffic. I'll put you through the phone. Hello, CEO Lee.

◇ Lee Taek-soo: Yes, hello.

◆ Shin Yul: Yes, where are you right now?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: I went from Yeouido to Sangam-dong and now I'm on the phone in the middle of

◆ Shin Yul: Sangam is not far from Yeouido, but it's so crowded.

◇ Lee Taek-soo: Yes, I left about an hour ago, but I couldn't arrive.

◆ Sin-ryul: That's how much you're pushed. Anyway, thank you for your hard work.

◇ Lee Taek-soo: Yes. I wanted to see the professor.
◆ When you say you're going to be on a show for 20 years, do you suddenly remember the old days? When I was doing the evening broadcast on C something. First of all, since you are a poll expert, 17% of Gallup Korea's poll came out today. What do you think?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: Since Gallup Korea has a lower positive assessment of the president's state affairs than other research institutions, many people are interested in it, especially at this point. Gallup Korea conducted its own telephone interview from the 5th to the 7th, and the president's approval rating was 17% this week. Following last week, it hit 10% again, hitting a new low since taking office. The reason why Gallup Korea has a lower positive rating than other research institutes is that most research institutes, including Realmeter, do very well on a four-point scale. It's based on this scale, but Gallup is not either way, so it's about 3% to 5% lower than other research institutes. So when the state of the president's state of affairs is high, it doesn't make much of a difference. For example, if the real meter was about 9% at the time of President Park Geun Hye's impeachment,

◆ Shin Yul: 9%?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: Yes, yes, 9% However, in the case of Gallup in Korea, the president of Park Geun Hye fell to 3% at the end of 2016. That's why when we talk about lame duck or dead duck, we look at the Korean Gallup index, and anyway, the absolute number is lower than that of other research institutes, so we're interested in it. The survey will be conducted weekly from Tuesday to Wednesday this week, with the survey released today the lowest at 17%.

◆ Sin Yul: It's nice to have an interview with a pollster. You gave me a rough outline, so I just need to put this on. For more information on 1,002 people, please refer to the website of the National Election Public Opinion Review Committee, but first of all, in this survey. What happened yesterday in this investigation? Talks and press conferences are not included, right?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: That's right. Usually, when the president makes a public statement or a press conference, his approval rating is likely to rise rather than fall, but since the Gallup Korea survey conducted Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, the public opinion of yesterday's presidential press conference has not yet been reflected. Other research institutes, such as NBS and other research institutes, are showing a similar trend toward the lowest lows.

◆ Shin Yul: But today, according to a Gallup poll in Korea. First place in the negative evaluation was Kim Gun-hee's problem at 19%.

◇ Lee Taek-soo: Yes

◆ Shin Yul: Right?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: It was three weeks ago that the issue of Mrs. Kim Gun-hee rose to the top after a negative evaluation in Gallup Korea. In the poll results from the fourth week of October to the second week of November released today, the Kim Gun-hee issue ranked No. 1 as the reason for the negative assessment of the president. Before that, other reasons for economic and public welfare prices were ranked No. 1, but the Kim Gun-hee issue began to be the highest in the fourth week of October. As the gap widens a little more, the Kim Gun-hee issue is overwhelmingly higher than other reasons, and this is what I keep talking about during the impeachment of President Park Geun Hye. At that time, according to the results of the first week of November 2016, it was about 8 years ago, but the reason why the president is negatively evaluated because of Choi Soon-sil and Mir K Sports Foundation is not smooth in state administration. Impeachment proceeded as it appeared overwhelmingly higher than lack of communication, but now that such an atmosphere is appearing now, a slightly worrisome situation is being created in the Yongsan presidential office. I think we should look at it like this.

◆ Shin Yul: But, as far as I remember, a reporter from the Yeongnam Ilbo asked me a question at the press conference for the president of Yoon Suk Yeol yesterday. When asked this question, "The approval rating is low in the TK region, it is very low." In my memory, the president may actually be thinking of various reasons for the low approval rating, but the first thing I picked was resistance to the reform. In this case, the president's analysis seems to be a little different from the aspect that the Kim Gun-hee issue that we talked about now is cited as the reason for the negative evaluation of 19%, right? How do you see it?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: That's right. Yesterday's press conference itself had a lot more negative reports, especially now in the Yeongnam region, negative evaluations have risen a lot. Positive evaluations have fallen like other regions to less than 30%. This is a bit of a concern. This week, yesterday's press conference for public statements, so now Realmeter will be held from Monday to Friday, and there are other results from pollsters starting Friday. So I think we need to look at this part. Because the press conference itself has a lot of negative or positive reports about the president, it has always been a factor in stopping or rebounding from the president's declining support. This is a phenomenon that has always appeared in relation to conservative health and presidential support. In particular, the impact of yesterday's press conference to the public could be considered as a phenomenon of conservatives gathering at the current low point, so we should refer to the results of today's and tomorrow's weekend polls. The results of the polls conducted until yesterday had fallen slightly and reached the lowest level even among the leaders supporting the president of Yoon Suk Yeol, Daegu and Gyeongbuk. I think we should analyze it like this.

◆ Shin Yul: By the way, what did you mean that Daegu and Gyeongbuk are falling? In the case of Gallup Korea, 18% came out last week. In Gallup, Korea, the approval rating in the TK region was 23%. Then it went up by 5%.

◇ Lee Taek-soo: That's right. That's what I mentioned a while ago.
◆ Religion: Conjunction of conservatives

◇ Lee Taek-soo: President Lee's approval rating is at its lowest point, so far, the president is halfway through his term and the other half has to go, especially when conservatives rally in a crisis, as shown in the TK region during the last by-elections, as you know, President George W. Bush used to have a poor presidential rating after the 9/11 crisis.
◆ Sin-ryul: It goes up 90%.

◇ Lee Taek-soo: Yes, in such a crisis situation, there is a new rally phenomenon now, and it can be said that some indicators were seen in the Gallup survey that there is a possibility that it will appear centered on the approval rating of Daegu and Gyeongbuk.

◆ Shin Yul: But CEO, this rally will eventually be accompanied by fatigue, but it has a rallying effect. How long will it last?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: It's called a step-down curve. Now, the president of Yoon Suk Yeol is about half of his five-year term. Usually, it is a little difficult to recover from the five-year term if it falls to about 30 percent lower than the 20 percent range. President Yoon Suk Yeol's approval rating compared to other presidents, as the president said yesterday, did not look at the electronic display. In the past, when he was in his second and third years in office, his approval rating was actually very poor. However, as such a situation continues, the approval rating has not been good now, but there are many terms left in the situation where the approval rating has fallen, so it seems that there is a rebound from the supporters and the hares who are rebounding a little in Daegu and Gyeongbuk.

◆ Shin Yul: Kim Gun Hee has announced that she will not accompany her on an overseas trip, will this have some impact?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: That's right. In fact, politicians say that since most of the reports can be positive except for obituaries, an increase in the number of reports will increase the approval rating, but in fact, there were so many negative reports about Kim Gun-hee that the amount of positive reports related to President Yoon Suk Yeol himself had to decrease, so if the amount of negative reports related to Kim Gun-hee decreases, there is a good chance that the downward curve of the president's support will stop and rebound.

◆ Sin Yul: Then of course, we can't say exactly what we're going to do unless he's coming, but what do you think will happen next week?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: Well, this weekend's survey, so the survey of Gallup Korea has already been completed. In the case of Realmeter, there are surveys from Monday to today and surveys from weekends. I think we need to look at the results, but first of all, public statements and press conferences will have more negative coverage, so the approval rating will drop further. You can expect it like this, but there is a good possibility that the approval rating may stop falling or rebound, so I think we need to look at the results of the survey. In the case of Realmeter, it has continued to fall and fall and fall sideways recently, but last week, it hit a low similar to other research institutes, and if the results of the survey later this week are reflected, I carefully predict that the results of the survey may come out sideways.

◆ Sin Yul: There is a possibility that there will be no further decline in sideways. Can I say this?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: It is possible that it fell because of the continuous scandal over the voice-revealing transcripts related to President Yoon Suk Yeol and Myung Tae-kyun until the early and mid-term of the week, but if the results of the Friday or weekend survey rebound, especially after yesterday's press conference, there is a slight possibility that the overall trend will be sideways.

◆ Shin Yul: If the recordings about Myung Tae-kyun keep coming out, it will be more negative for the president's approval rating, right?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: I guess so. But the prosecution's investigation has begun today, and so far, the possibility of a further drop in approval ratings is not seen until this weekend, as there is no immediate sign of any further revelation by Myung Tae-kyun, particularly against the president or Kim Gun-hee. I'll have to look at it like this.

◆ Sin Yul: But I don't know if I should be fortunate to keep it now, but shouldn't I at least go up a little bit? Is there any issue to post? Listable

◇ Lee Taek-soo: First of all, there may be problems with Yongsan itself, but you've seen a lot of reports recently that the approval ratings of the party and the government have been decoupled. Conflict with CEO Han Dong-hoon Whether he is close or not, it was mentioned a lot at yesterday's press conference, but I think those parts should be sealed first. First of all, the conflict between the current and future powers should be sealed. If this continues, there is a possibility that the party's approval rating will fall together, whether it is decoupling or coupling, or that the president's approval rating will drop and the public's approval rating will rise slightly. From Yongsan's point of view, it is obvious that it will not be good for the presidential office, so this united voice of the party and the government will be important.

◆ Shin Yul: But this week, the popular support rate in Gallup Korea was 32 last week, but this time it was 29. But the Democratic Party rose a lot. It went up by 4 percentage points from 32. What do you think is the reason?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: Rather than saying that the Democratic Party did a good job, the party's approval rating is falling together, so I think this part of the reflexive aspect will be a little stronger. Since the scandal over Myung Tae-kyun continued and the transcript of the alleged intervention of the nomination continues to explode after a day or two, and the passage of the transcript continues to come out through the Democratic Party of Korea, especially in Gallup and NBS, the Democratic Party's approval rating has been a little tight compared to other investigative agencies, especially in the automatic response method. Recently, the public's power has declined and the Democratic Party is leading. As a result, there will be limited conflicts, and various revelations related to Myung Tae-kyun are now being made mainly by the Democratic Party, and the impeachment civic movement, which has been going on since November 2, seems to be affecting the Democratic Party's approval rating.

◆ Shin Yul: But next Thursday, the first trial of Lee Jae-myung's violation of the election law will be sentenced, is there a possibility that the Democratic Party's approval rating will fluctuate according to this result?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: That's right. If Lee Jae-myung's personal approval rating or the Democratic Party's approval rating is likely to rise further if he is sentenced to innocence, and if Lee Jae-myung's approval rating as a presidential candidate and the Democratic Party's approval rating have recently outpaced the people's power to a level that is a little out of the scope of error, it could be bent and tightened again within the margin of error. Anyway, since the 15th sentence is just a few days away, if the controversy over Myung Tae-kyun's election has had a big impact so far, next week, the news related to the election between Lee Jae-myung and Lee Jae-myung is likely to affect

◆ Shin Yul: As a pollster, let me ask you one last question: America is all wrong. There's a lot of public opinion polls. How do you see it? Why are the polls wrong and what will happen in the future?

◇ Lee Taek-soo: Actually, the U.S. now adopts a national election system called the electoral college system, which makes it harder for the U.S. to make elections through public opinion polls than Korea. Just as Elgo of the Democratic Party lost in 2000 because he failed to win a majority of the electoral college despite winning 48.4 to 47.9 against President George, there may be some errors because of the fact that the overall poll is just 1,000 people and the general election is just a general referendum.

◆ [Sin Yul] There was also Jubyul. Around contention stocks

◇ Lee Taek-soo: Yes, yes. So the actual vote rate is about 3.8 percentage points, which can be said to be within the margin of error because it is 51.2 for Trump and 47.2 for Harris, but there are 312 electors, so it seems to be true that there are some optical illusions that make the polls look a little more wrong than in Korea.

◆ Shin Yul: Yes, I understand. Thank you for your words today. Thank you.

◇ Lee Taek-soo: Yes, thank you.

◆ Shin Yul: I was Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Realmeter.