There's a 60% chance of "La Niña" at the end of this year...Is the winter getting colder?

■ Host: Anchor Lee Ha-rin, Anchor Jung Ji-woong
■ Starring: Anti-Sung YTN Disaster Advisory Committee

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
It has a typical autumn weather today, so it looks good for a picnic to see autumn leaves. However, as the daily temperature range is large in the morning and evening, you should pay special attention to your health during the change of seasons. Considering the exceptionally hot summer, it can be said that it is a little early to worry about the upcoming winter cold, but the cold wave this winter will be severe due to the influence of climate change.

Let's connect the anti-Sung YTN disaster advisory committee and hear about the weather. Hello.

[semi-spanning]
Hello.

[Anchor]
First of all, the 7th was Ip-dong, and there was a cold wave of Ip-dong as its name suggests. In Seoul, the wind chill dropped below zero and the first ice was observed. What do you think is the reason why the cold suddenly came?

[semi-spanning]
It was the 7th of Ipdong, where winter begins during the season. This year, Ip-dong posed as Ip-dong while showing early winter weather. Until now, Korea has been influenced by the southern air mass. As a result, the temperature continued to be higher than usual.

From the 5th. The 1040-hectopascal continental high pressure centered in the south of Mongolia has expanded and moved south. This continental high pressure is very cold and dry in nature. Also, not only on the ground but also on the upper floor, the cold went south.

Usually, when the cold air comes down from the upper floor, the cold wave lasts for 4 to 5 days. The temperature of 1.5km above Seoul was 8 degrees Celsius, but in the morning of the 7th, the temperature fell to minus 3 degrees Celsius, dropping 11 degrees in three days. In addition, the temperature 5km above Seoul fell 7 degrees to minus 17 to 24 degrees Celsius, and the cold near the middle of winter came down from the upper floor.

As a result, the lowest temperature in Seoul recorded 1.6 degrees, and the first ice froze. Temperatures fell below zero in northern Gyeonggi Province, northern Gangwon Province, and then northern North Chungcheong Province and northern North Gyeongsang Province. Panmunjom recorded its lowest temperature of minus 5.5 degrees Celsius. And on the day of Ipdong, the daily temperature difference in inland areas widened to 15 degrees with cold waves. If the daily temperature range is large like this, the number of people with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases increases, so you should pay special attention to your health.

[Anchor]
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicted that "there is a 60% chance of La Niña appearing at the end of this year." What is the relationship between La Niña and the cold and whether it will be very cold this winter?

[semi-spanning]
This year, it is expected to change to La Niña from winter. La Niña refers to a phenomenon in which the sea temperature in the eastern part of the equatorial Pacific Ocean is more than 0.5 degrees lower than the average year. In early winter during the development of La Niña, the temperature is often lower than usual as the low-pressure circulation strengthens to the eastern part of Japan and the cold and dry north wind flows into Korea. And when we predict the winter cold, we look at how much the Arctic glacier has melted.

If you look at it now, Arctic sea ice is the seventh lowest record ever. So this year belongs to the year when a lot of glaciers melted. In particular, there is very little sea ice in Korea's territorial waters, the Arctic Ocean and the Kara Sea. In this case, the continental high pressure is strengthened as atmospheric pressure develops near Russia's Urals. That's why there's a high possibility that the chill in our country will come down.

So, for various reasons, winter is usually expected to be cold, especially in the case of the La Niña Sea, statistically, it tends to be cold in early winter. In the case of 2021 and 2022, the cold wave continued for a long time as a strong cold wave went south in December. That's why the Korea Meteorological Administration also sees the temperature in December this year lower than usual.

However, the Korea Meteorological Administration expects temperatures to be higher than usual in January next year. Therefore, this year, due to the influence of La Niña and the influence of Arctic sea ice, temperatures in early winter, that is, in December, are lower than usual and will be similar to or slightly higher than usual from January, but cold waves are expected to come down once or twice in January and February. There is a high possibility that it will be a winter with such things as temperature jumping.

[Anchor]
First of all, you said that the cold is expected in December in early winter, but the College Scholastic Ability Test is scheduled this Thursday. Many people say that the college entrance exam is a cold wave every year, but what is the weather forecast for this year's college entrance exam?

[semi-spanning]
We often say that it's a cold spell for the college entrance exam. In fact, there are not many cases where a cold wave has come down on the CSAT. Of the 31 college scholastic ability tests held since 1993, only 11 years have the average temperature been more than 1 degree lower than the average year. In Seoul, there are only eight years when the lowest temperature has reached below zero per day, which can be called a cold wave. In 1998, the coldest day ever, the temperature in Seoul was minus 5.3 degrees Celsius.

So, the probability of a cold wave falling below zero is only about 25%. Recently, however, due to global warming, the temperature of the College Scholastic Ability Test day is expected to continue to rise. Also, this year's College Scholastic Ability Test is this Thursday, the 14th. There is no cold spell for the college entrance exam this year.

Currently, the weather is expected to rain in the Seoul metropolitan area, Gangwon Yeongseo region, and Jeju Island on the 14th. Other areas look cloudy and cloudy. Because there are many clouds, the lowest temperature does not drop much. Nationwide, the lowest temperature on the CSAT day will be 6 to 15 degrees, and the highest will be 13 to 21 degrees. In Seoul, the lowest temperature is expected to be 11 degrees, which is 7 degrees higher than the average 4 degrees, and the highest temperature is expected to be 17 degrees, which is 4.5 degrees higher than the average 12.5 degrees. There will be no cold on this year's College Scholastic Ability Test.

[Anchor]
There will be no cold spell in this year's College Scholastic Ability Test. It's warm. Some say that there will be areas where it rains instead, but some say that the peak has not yet come because the autumn leaves are turning much later than usual. I wonder what the current situation of autumn leaves is all over the country and what is the reason for this delay?

[semi-spanning]
The first autumn leaves are when 20% of the mountain is colored, and the peak is when 80% of the mountain is colored. Most of the mountains in the country are now at their peak. However, Naejangsan Mountain and Hallasan Mountain have not reached their peak. When the temperature begins to fall below 5 degrees Celsius, the autumn leaves start to fall, and in order for the autumn leaves to be beautifully colored, the daily temperature difference must be large and the rain must fall.

However, the reason why this year's autumn leaves were delayed by more than eight days than usual is that the late heat continued. September is the highest month since 1973, the official observation year of the Korea Meteorological Administration. October also had the second highest average temperature ever. As a result, the foliage was colored late. There is also a comment that autumn leaves are not beautiful this year.

Looking at the cause, the first one was the small daily temperature difference in October this year. The highest temperature ever was 11th, and the lowest was 11.9 degrees, the hottest year ever. That's why the daily temperature difference is very small. In addition, the number of precipitation days was nearly twice as many as the average of 5.9 days. Precipitation was also 115.8mm, almost twice as much as usual. Isn't this autumn leaves a little far from beautiful conditions? As a result, there seems to be a comment that autumn leaves are not beautiful.

[Anchor]
You pointed out that autumn leaves are being delayed a little due to the late heat, but finally, let's look at the climate change situation. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced a few days ago that this year will be the hottest year on record. But even if I don't make an official announcement like this, I think everyone will take it for granted because they suffered from the heat last summer, but will it be inevitable for such extreme heat and cold to come in the future?

[semi-spanning]
November will be the hottest year for the World Meteorological Organization since industrialization. So, last year was the hottest so far. The average temperature was the highest at 18.98 degrees, but this year's temperature from January to September was higher than last year. Therefore, this year's temperature will break the record for last year's temperature. The World Meteorological Organization Global Temperature Analysis provides temperatures based on six international data centers from January to September 2024.

So this is the kind of intelligence data that I reported to the UN Secretary-General before the 29th UN General Assembly. But the problem is that the effects of severe climate change will lead to more and more extreme heat and cold. Many experts predict that the record of extreme heat waves this summer will be broken again next year.

For example, a joint study by a professor of geo-environmental engineering at the Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology with Utah State University in the United States shows that after the 2030s, every summer will enter a new normal era where heat waves are commonplace.I expected it to be
.

So far, the time when the average temperature rise in the summer on the Korean Peninsula will exceed the natural climate variability caused by global warming is just around the corner. Until now, summer temperatures have been a little hot in some years and less hot in other years, but this trend will disappear in the future, and according to Professor Yoon's research, the trend of rising temperatures in summer will become so strong after 2030, exceeding the range of repeated rise and fall. So, it is predicted that summer will continue to be hotter than the average temperature every year. Now, there will be no lower-than-average temperature years, but only higher years.

[Anchor]
I see. We have reviewed the weather situation with Ban Ki-sung, YTN Disaster Advisory Committee. Thank you for talking today.