North Korea's super-close approach..."North Korea strongly condemns dispatch of troops"

■ Host: Anchor Park Seok-won, anchor Yoo Da-hyun
■ Starring: Kim Dae-young, researcher at the Korea Institute for National Strategy

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
North Korea and Russia have completed ratification of the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which is considered a de facto military alliance.

[Anchor] Amid the close relationship between North Korea and Russia for
seconds, cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan is also strengthening. We will talk with Kim Dae-young, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Strategy. [Anchor] A treaty on comprehensive strategic partnership, is this a treaty that's already been signed since June and it's over?

[Daeyoung Kim]
That's right. At the North Korea-Russia summit held in Pyongyang, we mentioned the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty. It should be considered that it has actually been ratified in detail, but we need to look at the meaning. First of all, I think we need to look at two reference points. I think we should look at the Cold War in the past and the post-Cold War period when the Cold War collapsed. First of all, if we look back on the past Soviet era, the Soviet Union provided unilateral support to North Korea at that time, but after the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union changed to Russia, there was a diplomatic relationship between Korea and Russia.

At the same time, the automatic military intervention clause was abolished. However, in the case of this treaty, it can be seen that the two countries have emphasized mutual benefits. The North Korean military is now dispatched to the Russia-Ukraine war and supports many weapons, while North Korea attacks South Korea, for example.

Or, in this situation, such provisions that can be supported by Russia have been newly established, so we can analyze whether it is a stronger treaty than it was signed during the Cold War.

[Anchor]
In fact, the relationship has been upgraded to the level of a military alliance, and in this situation, the leaders of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan met at the APEC summit. How will he respond when he expressed his intention to strengthen cooperation to ally with military cooperation between North Korea and Russia?

[Daeyoung Kim]
Once North Korea intervened in the Russo-Russian War, the pattern changed a little. Of course, North Korea is not openly talking about sending troops, but there are many predictions that this could lead to a similar war in Europe, no matter how Russia ends the war, for example. Then North Korea could send troops again.

If you look at this, it's not just a problem limited to Asia, but now it can only be seen that this problem has spread to Europe. That is why the leaders of South Korea, the U.S. and Japan strongly mentioned this at the APEC summit in terms of the international situation. In the future, if Russia decides to do something in a region where North Korea's variables are very different, for example, and wages another war in Ukraine, it can be summarized that it has become a very important variable.

[Anchor] Among the situations in Chapter
, there were many opinions paying attention to the Kursk region, where the North Korean military is known to have been sent. Why are North Korean troops being sent to the Kursk region and operating?

[Daeyoung Kim]
By the end of January, this has been mentioned in several media outlets, but Putin must restore Kursk before the end of January, before the new administration of the United States takes office. Because as you know, one of the important objectives of the second Trump administration is the end of the war in Ukraine. It's the end of the war, so this is definitely not the way both Russia and Ukraine want it, probably.

Just as the Korean War was suspended in the past, we need to find a mutual compromise. From Russia's point of view, Kursk is an area that must be recaptured, and because of its importance, a lot of power is being put into Kursk. Also, since the operation is not carried out well, there are many victims.

So there are almost 700,000 Russian casualties during the Russo War and that's getting bigger through the Battle of Kursk. In that regard, what role the North Korean military will play in the future is expected to be a very important part of the battle.

[Anchor]
Then, in this situation, the ratification of the Russia-North Korea Treaty has been completed, so is there a possibility that additional North Korean troops could be sent?

[Daeyoung Kim]
It is difficult to say that there is no possibility of sending additional troops, but even now, about 12,000 troops are selected and sent to the most combative troops in the North Korean military, and various weapons are now being supported. From that point of view, wouldn't it be difficult to send more than 12,000 people? I'm looking at up to 20,000 people.

However, it seems like this can be considered to rotate and deploy rotations at 12,000 people and 20,000 people.

[Anchor]
One of the online stories is that some of the North Korean self-propelled artillery or improved multiple rocket launchers have been deployed in the Kursk region, so how were they deployed and what does it mean?

[Daeyoung Kim]
I also checked on social media, and it showed North Korea's 170mm self-propelled gun on the train moving somewhere. These days, it is called Osint, so the technique of analyzing information through public photos or satellite photos has become very good. So I just came out, but starting with the building behind the train, there are people who are just looking for where this is.

But it was found in the middle of Russia. So, they are saying, "Isn't this going to be sent to the Kursk front in the future?" But in the case of the 170mm self-propelled gun, it is a weapon that was the core of the fire sea in the metropolitan area in the past along with the 240mm self-propelled gun that is expected to be supported now.

However, taking out these weapons and sending them to Russia is a very important weapon in the front, and sending them to Russia means that North Korea is actually betting everything on Russia. That's how it's seen.

[Anchor]
If North Korea is betting everything on Russia, doesn't it mean that North Korea's role is getting bigger?

[Daeyoung Kim]
That's right. In the case of the 170mm self-propelled gun that came out earlier, it may not be a big deal, but it is actually the most important weapon in attacking Seoul and the metropolitan area. However, if you take out these weapons and give them to Russia, North Korea has a lot to expect from Russia, and in addition to this, there may be another picture of a 240mm multiple rocket launcher being carried on a train.

Then, it seems that North Korea relies heavily on Russia for everything to the extent that it takes out the weapons in front of it.

[Anchor]
The Korean government was in a position to review the support step by step, but after Trump's victory, some say that the Korean government's position is also changing. What do you think?

[Daeyoung Kim]
That's the biggest variable. Somehow, the second Trump administration aims to end the Russo-Russian War, and one of the ways to end the war is to reduce weapons aid to Ukraine. That's why our government is also going to have a second Trump administration policy toward Ukraine. You need to look at this carefully. It seems necessary to carefully consider such support, whether it is a defensive weapon or a killing weapon, accordingly.

[Anchor]
In the midst of this, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was recently unveiled to map the site of a self-destructive drone. However, it was revealed that the car was particularly hit, and there was an analysis that it was for South Korea. How do you see it?

[Daeyoung Kim]
That's quite possible. These days, in the case of self-destruction drones, we often talk about assassinating a specific person and beheading operations through self-destruction drones. And another thing is that in the case of our military, the number of tanks is smaller than that of the North Korean military, but instead, we have a lot of high-tech tanks.

From that point of view, from the perspective of North Korea, our military tanks are threatening, so we actually showed that through photos this time. One of the biggest trends in the future is how well drones and self-destructive drones are used in wars. In that regard, North Korea seems to have set its direction to operate drones as the core of its military power in the future. However, the problem is that in the case of drones, IT technology should support them.

North Korea doesn't have that high IT technology compared to South Korea. Many North Korean ballistic missiles have been exported to Russia, but most of them do not fit the target and fall into the wrong places. However, if you analyze it, you have imported various semiconductors that are not used for commercial purposes to make missiles, but the actual performance is not that good.

Of course, this drone was handmade to look good to Kim Jong-un, but it is questionable whether it will be able to perform properly when mass-produced.

[Anchor]
North Korea tried to disrupt GPS radio waves in northern Gangwon Province early this morning, and this is said to have been 10 consecutive days since the 8th. Is this also a review of drone warfare or defense of attacks using drones now, tactical training against these things?

[Daeyoung Kim]
You can say that. Another thing is to make our people's lives uncomfortable. It can be seen as a kind of provocation in the gray area. In fact, in the case of GPS used by the military, most of the countermeasures against GPS jamming are in place. Rather, GPSs used in the private sector are more vulnerable to disturbance, and those who use them for fishing or other purposes will inevitably experience all kinds of obstacles if GPS disturbances begin in North Korea.

You can go in the wrong direction, and in fact, you have to buy expensive navigation equipment to replace it, but you don't have to use GPS. I think these things will continue to provoke in the future. And in the case of GPS provocation, it is a non-physical means that does not involve force, so from the perspective of North Korea, it is possible to increase the intensity of tension a little more through this.

It's kind of a gray area tactic. In the future, it seems that there is an intention to create a backlash against, for example, leaflets against North Korea sent by North Korean defector groups while continuing to provoke such gray areas against the Korean people.

[Anchor]
Here, there was an article saying that one of North Korea's missile bases is operating in Jagang Province. But wasn't it one of the things we haven't revealed so far?

[Daeyoung Kim]
North Korea does not disclose its missile bases well. However, when Kim Jong-un goes to a base, he shows only a small part of it. As I told you earlier, it's Osint, so isn't it possible to see open information, especially some SNS maps? There are many services that use this to obtain various military information and many projects are underway. This one seems to have been confirmed like this, too. In fact, there are advantages as well as disadvantages in that it is an underground missile base.

Since there are not many passages to enter and exit, if only these passages are hit with precision, the missile base itself will be neutralized. If we actually block the entrance when we go back and forth to the tunnel, we will be in a similar situation as if we are isolated from the tunnel. In the case of our military, we don't disclose these things, but we actually understand most of them.

In addition, we are relieved in that regard because we now have a variety of appropriate strike measures, but it is expected that North Korea will continue to build many underground missile bases in the future.

[Anchor]
The biggest variable in the current situation would be the second Trump administration, but didn't you show off your friendliness with Chairman Kim Jong-un during the election process? But if you look at the administration, there seem to be a lot of hard-liners against North Korea, what do you think?

[Daeyoung Kim]
I think it's a little different. The biggest difference between the first and second periods was that in the first period, John Bolton and former Defense Secretary Metis, if the United States is a very traditional conservative, there were actually a lot of hard-line policies toward North Korea. But in the case of the second term, Trump's people. Of course, it can be viewed as a very hawkish depending on the angle of view, but most of them have a very close relationship with Trump and many people follow Trump's argument.

Then it's bound to be a big variable for us. From the perspective of traditional American conservatives, didn't North Korea have that story in the past? There was also talk of an axis of evil, but now President Trump does not see North Korea that way. We can also have a conversation.

We talked about that a lot during the election. Rather, new diplomatic and security lines may support these. In that respect, there are areas where unpredictable situations can develop in the future, but North Korea is a variable. If North Korea does reach out, it can come to the dialogue right away, or it can raise its ransom further, for example, by conducting a seventh nuclear test, or by launching additional ICBMs, it can drag the United States in the direction that North Korea wants. These seem to be the biggest variables in the future.

[Anchor]
Then, even in the case of Trump's unique top-down method between the leaders, some say that it will not be easy this time, but should we consider it unlikely?

[Daeyoung Kim]
Rather, I'm very likely to prefer a top-down approach not only in North Korea but also in North Korea during Trump's second term. Because in the first period, I tried to do that, but I had an experience of being blocked by traditional conservatives in the middle. And if President Trump is re-elected, it looked like that in the first term, but he has a very showmanship style.

That's why I did it through the top-down method. It is presumed that the top-down method would be preferred to show a kind of showmanship in a way that I have done everything I have not been able to do.

[Anchor]
Let me ask you one last question. North Korea has not made any particular stance since Trump's election, so when will it move and in what way?

[Daeyoung Kim]
I think the second administration will be launched at the end of January, but not only North Korea but also I went to Beijing a few days ago, and now they are all taking a wait-and-see attitude. It is a situation where we are waiting and seeing what to do, and maybe when the second administration becomes full-fledged, various responses will be made accordingly. And I predict that North Korea will also move accordingly.

[Anchor]
Then you're seeing me after January next year, right?

[Daeyoung Kim]
It is not until the end of January that the policy directions of the second Trump administration will come out in earnest. I think that will be the most important time.

[Anchor]
I see. Let's stop here. So far, I have been with Kim Dae-young, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Strategy. Thank you.