[Politics ON] Lee Jae-myung's perjury teacher's decision... "Stop lying" vs "Edit the Devil"

■ Host: anchor Lee Harin
■ Appearance: Kim Hyung-joon, chair professor at Bae Jae-dae, head of InSightK Research Center Bae Jong-chan

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsON] when quoting.


[Anchor]
Let's start <Politics On> looking at the outside and inside of politics. Today, we are joined by Kim Hyung-joon, chair professor of Bae Jae-dae, and Bae Jong-chan, director of Insight K Research Institute. Welcome, two of you. Please show us the first keyword. Stop lying. The first keyword is to stop lying. Ahead of the conclusion of Lee Jae-myung's so-called perjury teacher suspicion trial, floor leader Choo Kyung-ho said he was lying to Lee and expected the judiciary to show that justice is alive. The Democratic Party of Korea raised the level of criticism, saying the prosecution's claims were edited by the devil. Let's listen to the voices of the ruling and opposition parties first.

[Anchor]
A little while ago, at 2:15 p.m., the final hearing on CEO Lee Jae-myung began. It seems that the prosecution will seek it soon. How much do you predict the amount of old?

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
Since I'm not a legal expert, but after listening to the two arguments, there is one thing that is very disadvantageous to CEO Lee Jae-myung. What that is is, the expression that Chief Judge Yoo Chang-hoon used during the last warrant review seems to be explained in relation to perjury teachers.

[Anchor]
I said I could call it out, but I rejected the video.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
This has a very important implication. The judge said this, and Kim Min-seok, the supreme council member, is saying that it's fantasy, it's fiction, it's devil's editing, and so on. It's an old sentence. I don't know what kind of sentence the prosecution will give, but anyway, I think it's right that there is a considerable disadvantage in this area. In particular, perjury teachers are not fined among the sentencing standards. As such, there is a fine in the election law, but in the sentencing standards. That's why perjury teachers are more serious and the biggest than election laws.

[Anchor]
There is a fine, but isn't it that the right to run for election is not deprived regardless of whether it is 1 million won or not?

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
As such, in the areas excessively related to perjury, it is strictly controlled in the areas related to perjury teachers. That's because it's about obstruction of justice, so the prosecution probably asked for two years in prison for spreading false information, although it was a different matter in the last sentence. If you think it's much more serious than that, you have no choice but to ask for more sentences than two years. That's how I carefully anticipate it.

[Anchor]
Ten days ago, the final trial of the Public Official Election Act demanded a two-year prison term. What kind of spherical volume do you predict today?

[Bae Jong Chan]
What we can see first is that the prosecution is making the highest sentence. If you look at it that way, there is a high possibility that three to five years in prison will be sentenced today in relation to perjury teachers. In general, from the prosecution's point of view, from the prosecution's point of view, today is not a trial, but a prosecution's sentence. In terms of the prosecution's sentence, it was generally possible to report that it was that much. But the reason for that is that the first is the old sentence, which is about to be sentenced in the first trial.
That's why you have to serve the maximum sentence so that you can go to the first trial, the second trial, and the third trial. Another standard for the prosecution's appeal today would be the prosecution's appeal for violating the Public Official Election Act on the 22nd.

It also demanded a maximum sentence of two years for the related law. If so, the maximum sentence related to perjury is still 5 years. But 5 years is a very medium when it comes to perjury teachers. So, in normal cases, the prosecution may have been sentenced to three years ahead of the first trial, but in the last case, the maximum sentence is expected to be 3 to 5 years.

[Anchor]
I thought viewers might be confused about the trial of spreading false information under the Public Official Election Act on the 20th and 10 days ago, and today's trial of perjury teachers. We'll organize it in a graphic way. The perjury teacher's trial where the resolution is being held today. Its roots date back 22 years. CEO Lee conspired with KBS PD, who was covering the preferential sale case in 2002, and impersonated a prosecutor. At that time, a fine of 1.5 million won was confirmed for speaking with Seongnam Mayor Kim Byung-ryang. However, at the 2018 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial candidate debate, I was framed for the case, which was already convicted, and for this reason, I was indicted on charges of publicizing false information. The Supreme Court found him not guilty of this charge in 2020. The prosecution will seek charges that CEO Lee made false testimony to the witness who entered the trial at the time, Kim Jin-sung, secretary of the late Mayor Kim Byung-ryang. The perjury teacher charge can be sentenced to up to three years in prison if there is a weighting factor, such as the perjury content affecting the outcome of the trial.

On the 20th, 10 days ago, CEO Lee's final trial was also held. I think the viewers might be confused about this part. At that time, the trial asked the prosecution for two years in prison on charges that the two remarks were lies, and that he did not know the late Director Kim Moon-ki, a key figure in the Daejang-dong development project, and approved the change of the apartment site in Baekhyun-dong due to threats from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. The impact of the two trials, the sentence, is a little different. In the case of a trial for violating the Public Official Election Act, if a fine of more than 1 million won is confirmed, he cannot run for the next presidential election. The perjury teacher charge, which is being decided today, will lose the right to run for election if the sentence of imprisonment or higher is confirmed, including probation. There's a difference like this. Now, within this year, the perjury teacher and the Public Official Election Act may be able to be sentenced to the first trial of two trials. I think we need to predict the direction of the political situation in the future after the first trial. There is also a by-election on October 16th.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
It depends on how the final sentence comes out rather than the sentence. So, usually, if there is a final sentence within a month regarding the perjury teacher issue, I believe that the results can come out in October. Since there is probably a by-election on October 16, if the court also thinks about that, I think that the first trial sentence related to perjury teacher will come out at the end of October or November. However, the spread of false information about the Public Official Election Act is said to be sentenced on November 15, but it is not necessarily observed. It could be delayed. Anyway, I've explained it many times, but the key point is that if you are convicted of violating the Public Official Election Act of more than 1 million won, you will be deprived of your right to run for five years, and you will have to return more than 40 billion won in election subsidies to the Democratic Party of Korea.

In the case of perjury teachers, if they receive more than a imprisonment sentence, they will lose their seats and if they cannot run for president, there will be great chaos in the Lee Jae-myung unilateral system. Until now, everything had been concentrated there, to the extent that Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party of Korea, was criticized for bulletproofing all of the parliamentary power. However, if Lee Jae-myung loses his parliamentary seat or is unable to run for president, the ruling party has no choice but to go further and talk about Plan B in terms of pro-Moon or screaming because there is a big breakthrough. Regarding the future political situation, it will be a big inflection point. This will be even more intense until the end of the year. The final sentence has not come out, but the first trial sentence may shake it. I think Lee Jae-myung's unipolar system has explosive power that can be shaken.

[Anchor]
You said it was an explosive issue, but as we told you earlier, Supreme Council member Kim Min-seok is now explaining that it is a fantasy novel by the prosecution. How will the results of the first trial affect Lee Jae-myung's leadership in the future? How do you predict it?

[Bae Jong Chan]
It may not change much within the party. However, in such a case, the presidential election structure may be affected if the first trial sentence is one of the two, the Public Official Election Act or the perjury teacher. The loss of parliamentary seats deprives you of your right to run for election. Then, it means that you can't come to the next presidential election. Then CEO Lee Jae-myung, who can't come to the presidential election. Inside the party, there may be a story that it needs to be firmly united because it has to be sentenced by the third trial and the Supreme Court.It's a public opinion. Honam public opinion, then 40s, and white-collar public opinion do not work like the environment within the party. So, in such a situation, the influence of Chairman Lee Jae-myung will be the so-called Honam public opinion outside the party, even if it is not within the party, and white-collar and approval ratings in their 40s. It is bound to be affected by this. The key is how big this fluctuates. So, you can shout about what the prosecution is asking for as political oppression by the prosecution, but you can't say that when the court and the judiciary sentence you.

Therefore, Supreme Council member Kim Min-seok may be able to speak politically about the prosecution's sentence, but it will be difficult to say so about the first trial of the Public Official Election Act or the first trial related to the perjury teacher charge on November 15. So, rather than the environment within the party at that time, if there is a situation where I am not allowed to run for president, the influence of public opinion can have a significant impact.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
Especially, isn't there a by-election on October 16th? I don't know what the results will be in the Honam region, but if the Democratic Party of Korea and the Democratic Party of Korea are fiercely competing with each other, and if the result does not come out as expected by the Democratic Party of Korea and both sentences related to the loss of parliamentary seats in the first trial, that's not what I said. For example, CEO Lee Jae-myung said it himself. Some even said that the Democratic Party's leadership system could falter depending on the outcome of the sentence on November 16, but if the ruling also leads to a loss of parliamentary seats, of course, it will fluctuate. Of course, I don't know how much control we can have only within the party, but I would like to say that it will eventually be a bad news for the middle class, and even the Seoul metropolitan area and young people who are emphasizing fairness, and that will be another factor in the political change.

[Anchor]
A final trial is underway on Lee Jae-myung's alleged perjury teacher, and the prosecution is likely to seek it soon. When the old quantity comes out, I'll give you a breaking news. We'll go with the next keyword. Please show us the keyword. The next keyword is Kim's kingdom. Today, the government voted to veto bills handled by the opposition alone, including the Special Prosecutor's Office Act on First Lady Kim Gun-hee. Amid President Yoon's imminent veto decision, the ruling and opposition parties' responses were sharply mixed. In the Democratic Party of Korea, there was even a voice called Kim Gun-hee's kingdom. I'll listen to it myself. President Yun

is in a state of veto until the 4th of next month according to the Constitution. Now it's the 24th turn of veto, and it's really turning like a circle. With this veto, I think the people will be too tired. How did you like it? Burden

[Bae Jong-chan]
It's a burden and it needs to be resolved somehow. In that respect, the first thing that the president has no choice but to exercise in the current political situation of the opposition party may be the veto power. But secondly, if so, we need the president's political response to the veto. There are certainly voices from the people who need to do this, but also to manage state affairs and resolve people's livelihoods. Then, the government should also provide relief on how to resolve pending issues related to the people's livelihood, the Marine Special Prosecutor Act, and the First Lady Kim Gun-hee. It's not just an opposition offensive. Why is that clearly not entirely acceptable or able to judge the opposition's argument right, but clearly has no effect on the approval rating? There are also parts related to First Lady Kim Gun-hee, as well as the Marine Special Prosecutor Act. It's right to judge that part based on facts and at least resolve that part. If not, it will last too long. Our YTN, if you come on the program now and keep repeating the same story over and over again, the president's term is still half over. So, I'm going to include the national engine, the so-called 4+1 reform, and the medical reform. It's important. In order to accomplish this, I will exercise my veto power, but I think it is essential to respond to state affairs that can replace it.

[Anchor]
So what do you think the 24th veto will do to the president's approval rating?

[Bae Jong Chan]
Well, it's so low that it has to come up, even if it's not a factor that's going to make you press your approval rating more down. Therefore, it can be an obstacle that prevents the approval rating from rising, so it seems necessary to wisely resolve the burdens in any way.

[Anchor]
The exercise of the right to reject could weigh down the approval rating. However, the Democratic Party is speeding up its pace to hold a plenary session even on the weekend and push for a re-vote if it is handed over to the veto. There's a reason why the Democratic Party is speeding up like this, right?

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
In fact, the veto, including the last National Assembly, was exercised. Nevertheless, if it is normal, the president has no choice but to veto it because it is anti-constitutional and there is no agreement between the ruling and opposition parties, instead of discussing how to pass it through the ruling and opposition parties. So, for example, did CEO Han Dong-hoon talk about the issue of the special prosecutor for Chae Sang-byung in a third-party recommendation method?

Because we're barely talking right now. So I think the intention is somewhere else. In the end, isn't it Kim Geon-hee who is in the end? Everything is demonized by Kim Gun-hee, and through the frame of Kim Gun-hee, we have no choice but to suspect that he is trying to build up something related to the impeachment of the president. Seriously, in my own way of vetoing all this, I keep saying that the president is the problem now, but I used the expression Kim Gun-hee's kingdom if I look at it very coldly. Isn't it the Democratic Kingdom? When Congress is tyrannizing everything with the Democratic Kingdom, is it really a one-sided concession from either side to find a breakthrough? We have to show that we will solve this problem through dialogue and compromise, but that is not the purpose, but rather, we can't say where this is right and where it is wrong in the part that continues to be repeated in a whirlwind manner so that we can be suspected that we are trying to take the lead in the political situation and mitigate the judicial risk of representative Lee Jae-myung through the Kim Gun-hee frame. So the people are really tired. Even if you can't do this, are you pushing for laws related to people's livelihoods, such as Kim Gun-hee's independent counsel, Chae Sang-byung's independent counsel, or 250,000 won support for all citizens? You're not doing it, are you? Including the gold investment tax law, special semiconductor laws. Without mentioning anything about this at all, the Democratic Party continues to flood with only sensitive political issues like this. I'm talking about approval ratings right now, but the president's approval rating is fixed at around 20%. Gallup Korea from April 3 to September 4 in total.

[Anchor]
Please show us the approval rating graphic.


[Kim Hyungjun]
After 17 surveys, President Yoon Suk Yeol has never stayed in the 20% range and has not risen to the 30% range. This is to say that it's completely entrenched, which is a very dangerous signal because, strictly speaking, the phenomenon that usually happens at the end of the term in successive governments comes at a time when the term is not even halfway through. For example, all of these things are related to the Kim Gun-hee issue, and related to Chae, it's not that the approval rating has fallen, but is there really a public welfare policy that the government has talked about or related to the people's livelihood? In my view, there is no choice but to have a clear limit when it comes to raising the approval rating to 30%, as there is only a battle in the absence of these things.

[Anchor]
I'm showing you the results of Gallup Korea's poll. Let's look at the results of the Realmeter survey that came out today. Please change the graphic and show it to me. Since the results of the parliamentary investigation came out. The operational evaluation is now at the lowest level with the power of the people and the president. It would be nice if

[Bae Jong-chan]
continued to show the screen, which was 27% last week, but after the Chuseok holiday, it went up to 30.3% in the Realmeter survey. Therefore, it is a rebound from a sense of crisis, and it is also a political reflection benefit from the prosecution's request for the Public Official Election Act. That's why the conservatives rallied. That's what I said.Ma goes down again.
In the end, Professor Kim Hyung-joon was right just now. Therefore, it is a so-called majority riot why they exercise their veto power and continue to pass the special prosecution even though there are illegal matters, and there will be supporters who can make a claim in the power of the people and be attracted to the claim.

[Anchor]
Please also show us the results of the party's approval rating.

[Bae Jong Chan]
You'd better watch it right away. If you look at it, I asked about the party's approval rating and which party you support, and there was a bigger difference in the real meter. The Democratic Party of Korea is 43.2% and 29.9% is the power of the people. I just explained it to you.Ma's approval rating is now more than 10 percentage points apart. So, it is not expected that eight people will leave the issue of re-decision immediately from the power of the people. Then it'll be almost a catastrophe. Almost the conservative base will crumble again.

[Anchor]
Rep. Yoon Sang-hyun agrees with Kim Gun-hee's demonic frame when more than eight people vote to leave. Opening the door to impeachment is the next interview.

[Bae Jong Chan]
It's not a level of sympathy, so it's not based on the opposition party that falls into the opposition's frame, but the conservatives themselves will collapse. Why? It means that the conservatives don't solve the problem and end up in a catastrophe. Then it will be a break-up between pro-yoon and pro-han, and it will break down the core supporters of Daegu-Gyeongbuk, those in their 70s and older, and even the housewives. But if you look at the approval rating, you can talk about what you can say about the Democratic Party's offensive. But at least we need to talk about the Democrats, but we can react politically. But you shouldn't react politically to the demands of the people. The people's demands are people's livelihood, the Yoon Suk Yeol government, and the ruling party. I don't know what else, but what the opposition can do and what the ruling party can do is different, right? I'm asking for that, so I'm not asking you to answer the voice of the Democratic Party, but what the people are crying out for right now is to answer the voice of the people, so if you don't respond quickly, show us the results of the Realmeter poll now, the presidential approval rating.

If the president's positive approval rating is again in the 20% range and 25.8% in the wired and wireless automatic response survey, it is the lowest in his term in office based on real meters. And if the party's approval rating is now in the 20% range, I should detect this as a serious crisis signal. The presidential office and the power of the people. I can't wait to see how I can rebound my approval rating. If the president of Yoon Suk Yeol and representative Han Dong-hoon hold a one-on-one meeting, it should be called a one-on-one meeting, regardless of the fact that it is a one-on-one meeting. As for the approval rating, I'm not in a hurry, but I've already had to have a solo conversation about 10 times.

[Anchor]
Will my approval rating go up if I have a private room? [Bae Jong Chan] That's why we have to answer. Form is not important, but how much this is a crisis. It's not just a crisis, but you have to sense that it's a crisis.

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
There are some things we need to be careful about when it comes to the polls. The real-meter survey shows that the gap is now 13.3% as the public's power has dropped by 4% for the Democratic Party's support to increase by more than 5%. However, if you look at the time of the survey, the Realmeter survey was conducted on the 26th and 27th. However, the Democratic Party's support is only 26% from the 23rd to the 25th, which was announced in the four major polls called NBS. Then, there is almost 2 to 3 days difference, but how can one be 43 and the other is 28%. Gallup Korea did it last week on the 24th and 26th. Then, it's between a day's departure, but even in Gallup Korea, the Democratic Party's support is 32 percent, and the people's power is 31 percent.

How can there be such a huge difference of 13.3% when it is only 1 percentage point? Which way should I look? This is, of course, a dangerous signal for the president's low support for state administration, including the current public power, but if the Democratic Party continues to pressure and turns a blind eye to people's livelihoods, it should reflect on why party support on the other side, such as NBS in the telephone interview survey, or the Korea Gallup survey, is not overwhelming the national power. This makes me think that we absolutely need the wisdom to solve the problem by making concessions one step at a time in this situation, not good or evil.

[Anchor]
Let me tell you that it may vary slightly depending on the polling institution and the period. We'll go with the last keyword. Please show us the keyword
. The next keyword is the curse's gutpan. It was three days ago. Aftershocks have continued since the impeachment night event was held at the National Assembly Hall on the 27th under the arrangement of Rep. Kang Deuk-gu of the Democratic Party. In the ruling party, there were criticisms to collect the curse of impeachment. Rep. Park Soo-hyun of the Democratic Party countered by saying that the government should change its stance. It has to be
to listen to your voice. The event calling for the impeachment of the Yoon Suk Yeol regime took place in the National Assembly, nowhere else. This part is being debated. Did you see the impeachment night event?

[Bae Jong Chan]
I've seen it, but I can't help but think that it's too much, too much. Of course, it can be free to express your opinion politically.Aren't we in a situation where we are socially and economically in jeopardy? At times like this, what is the role of lawmakers who represent the people and receive taxes from the people? You have to work really hard. I'm not a political guru. But first of all, it would be possible to say that the president is not doing anything about impeachment and that the president is doing something wrong with the administration of state affairs. But what does impeachment mean? It's literally about getting the president off the spot. It's also in our Constitution. In the event of a serious violation of the Constitution or law, the National Assembly can prosecute impeachment. Isn't it that?

Even then-President Roh Moo Hyun, who was heard by the Constitutional Court for impeachment in 2004, said there was a basis for violation of the election law, but he was not impeached. Still, he said it wasn't enough to be impeached. I don't like the president of Yoon Suk Yeol and I don't like Mrs. Kim Gun-hee, but that doesn't mean that you can impeach him just because you talk about impeachment, right? Then, what the Democratic Party of Korea should do at least is not to drive this into the chaos of state affairs, but rather to the bulletproofness related to the sentence of Chairman Lee Jae-myung in November. It's easy to be misunderstood. It's not something that needs to be done. If the Democratic Party shows superior capabilities as the Democratic Party of Korea, the Democratic Party naturally plays a more important and meaningful role for the people and people's livelihoods. Then we can get that evaluation and get it evaluated in the next local election and the next presidential election. There are standards through elections that are clearly set in our law. But talking about impeachment has no choice but to be suspected of having other political intentions.

[Anchor]
Representative Kang Deuk-gu arranged the rental of the National Assembly. However, it has nothing to do with the party within the Democratic Party now. It looks like you're drawing a line to some extent. Was he concerned about the aftermath?

[KIM HYEONGJUN]
Sometimes you're a Democrat and sometimes you're not a Democrat? First of all, I don't understand the National Assembly Secretariat. I don't know if it was related to legislative activities, but if it was that kind of impeachment night... I want to ask the Democratic Party. Then, if a member of the People's Power organizes a rally related to the dissolution of the Democratic Party in the National Assembly, a party that violates the democratic basic order in the Korean Constitution can be dissolved. The government can ask the Constitutional Court to dissolve it. How would Democrats react if that happened? I would have said it was crazy. Of course, there are demands for impeachment under the Constitution, and there are all the right to dissolve political parties under the Constitution, but there is a part related to the basics. How can the National Assembly, the hall of the people's right to impeach the president by opening a night of impeachment and making an impeachment exorcism in such a way? Then, of course, if it doesn't matter, the Democratic Party should do something to Rep. Kang Deuk-koo. You don't do that at all. This is clear that impeachment will be built up and the dissolution of the party will be built up, going forward. With this, we have no choice but to fight fiercely and fight against it, but I'm asking if we shouldn't go that far.

[Anchor]
I even delivered the professor's personal opinion that it was too much to hold an impeachment night event at the National Assembly, the hall of the people. That's all for today's political news. So far, I've been with Jung Chi-Yon Bae Jong-chan, head of InSightK Research Institute, and Kim Hyung-joon, chair professor at Baejae University. Thank you both.