President Yoon "North Korea's Possible Nuclear Test and ICBM Provocation"

■ Host: Anchor Jang Won-seok and Anchor Yoon Bori
■ Starring: Cho Han-beom, chair researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification,

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
President Yoon Suk Yeol predicted that "North Korea could carry out provocations such as nuclear tests to attract the attention of the United States."

[Anchor]
Let's point out with Cho Han-beom, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification.

[Anchor]
President Yoon Suk Yeol interviewed foreign media before his tour of Southeast Asia, and that's what came out of it. North Korea's nuclear test and the possibility of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) were mentioned, but the National Intelligence Service announced similar details. Should I say it's in that context?

[Cho Han-beom]
First of all, it is unlikely that North Korea will launch a special high-intensity ICBM or conduct a nuclear test before the U.S. presidential election. Because I'm looking forward to U.S.-North Korea negotiations depending on the results of the presidential election. However, there is talk of an ICBM for a nuclear test, one is technical and the other is political, but technically, North Korea does not yet have an ICBM foundation.

I haven't fired at a normal angle yet, and I haven't re-entered it, so I have to shoot consecutively to secure the technology. There's room left. And the possibility of a nuclear test was six times by North Korea from 2006 to 2017. I've basically done everything I need to do.

So, I did it all six times, including nuclear explosion, power enhancement, miniaturization, weight reduction, hydrogen bomb, warhead, and ICBM. But I've done all the basics, but the more I conduct a nuclear test, the better. The United States has done it more than 1,000 times. The most likely thing right now is that there is Volcano-31 unveiled by North Korea. A standardized tactical nuclear warhead. I haven't popped this yet.

Therefore, there is a possibility of a nuclear test to verify reliability, but the problem is that even if the nuclear test is conducted, the nuclear test itself is for the United States, but the performance is for the South. So in this sense, you're fiddling with a card with the U.S. in mind, and if you use it, you're likely to do it not immediately after the presidential election, but depending on the signals of the U.S. or Harris, depending on the results.

[Anchor]
If you make a provocation, the international community will not stay still. But what do you think North Korea is aiming for as it continues to provoke while enduring this?

[Cho Han-beom]
There's not much to do even if I don't stay still. Because we've done all the sanctions we can, and then Russia has already done denuclearizing North Korea, and we're taking our foot out. China is also not agreeing to additional sanctions in the Security Council. What we, the United States and the international community do doesn't hurt North Korea much.

So North Korea has already crossed the line. There's not much additional to do with sanctions. If North Korea says it's looking, there's no brake now. However, the problem is that high-intensity provocations such as nuclear tests are related to the international nuclear order, and China is also very burdensome.

So, I'm hesitating because there's uncertainty about how the U.S. will come out when a nuclear test is conducted. Sanctions alone are probably limited. So as a result, the outcome of the demand for negotiations with the United States will have an impact on North Korea's further provocative actions.

[Anchor]
On Armed Forces Day, when North Korea mentioned the president's real name and said, "He is a puppet and an imperfect person," about the president's speech in Yoon Suk Yeol. What is the trick that North Korea is trying to gain by continuing this hostile relationship with us?

[Cho Han-beom]
7th, tomorrow. the Supreme People's Assembly In his speech to the Supreme People's Assembly in January this year, Chairman Kim Jong-un will redefine territorial and territorial waters. Then, I ordered the national concept and unification to be deleted. I'm just saying that I'm going to go to another country now. This represents the defeat of a regime crunch. Since it seems that the unification of the Goryeo federal system led by them will not be possible, South Korea and North Korea. It's not the southern or northern hemisphere, but the Republic of Korea and the Democratic Republic of Korea are completely different.

That means you won't be affected by us. In other words, I'm going to go my way. In July 2022, Chairman Kim first spoke about President Yoon. At that time, there was no modifier behind President Yoon. There's a puppet on it. So it's different from then.

At that time, they were the objects of unification that they claimed, but now the puppet here is presumed to mean the scarecrow of the United States. So, because it's a completely different system from them, they're continuing to solidify the situation that they're going to take a completely different path.

[Anchor]
In the midst of this, it seems that the position on North Korea in the United States is slightly divided. Rather than emphasizing North Korea's complete denuclearization, efforts should be made to reduce nuclear weapons, and the United States should never give up on North Korea's denuclearization. There are also claims like this. What do you think of the U.S. position?

[Cho Han-beom]
But worryingly, the former is getting bigger, the theory of reality. We have no alternative but complete denuclearization in any case. But the international community has different interests than ours. From the perspective of the United States, North Korea does not have the ability to attack ICBMs, so if it stops here, it can prevent threats to the United States. If you give me time, I'll continue to secure ICBM capabilities.

So stop here, which recognizes North Korea's nuclear weapons. This is freezing. And removing some of it, for example, in Hanoi, where Trump and Kim Jong-un tried. That's nuclear disarmament. The argument to go this way is gaining strength. President Trump did it in 2019. Harris' camp also took complete denuclearization and human rights out of the Democratic Party's platform. It means there is a possibility of negotiation.

However, no because we are concerned about our opposition, our goal is to complete denuclearization, but it can be seen as giving a signal to North Korea, and there is a possibility of negotiation. Rather than fighting against North Korea's nuclear weapons, South Korea is more realistic about North Korea after the U.S. presidential election In Washington, there is a growing realism that requires nuclear freeze, partial reduction, and recognition of certain nuclear capabilities.

In the future, we have a fight against North Korea's nuclear weapons, but the possibility of a fight against North Korea's nuclear reality theory is becoming more important.

[Anchor]
In the meantime, six North Korean officers were killed and three soldiers were reportedly injured in the battleground in eastern Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war. Is there a possibility of sending the North Korean People's Army beyond Russia's weapons support?

[Cho Han-beom]
The possibility of sending troops is slim, and this time, it doesn't seem to be sending troops either. I also contacted people in Russia last year. I'll be discharged from the Russian front if I stay for a certain period of time. According to your message, there was already a North Korean officer on the Ukrainian front line last year.

I'm not a combatant, because when I supply weapons, I go with the nature of a military advisory group for explanations and things like that. So it's possible that this time it's the same type of torture. Or a large number of North Korean workers will go to rebuild the Donbas region or the occupied region, and it's likely that the People's Army Construction Brigade will go. The

Construction Brigade is doing large-scale civil engineering work. There's a possibility that it's pre-prepared work. So this report is very likely to be true.

[Anchor]
But even if you look at this, North Korea and Russia held a summit in Pyongyang. These days, North Korea has become much closer to Russia than to China, what do you think is the reason?

[Cho Han-beom]
In the end, from North Korea's point of view, after the war in Ukraine broke out, North Korea unilaterally supports Russia. So, North Korea is the only country that explicitly provides military support. So the Russian War increased North Korea's strategic value. Relations between North Korea and Russia quickly became close as they were unilaterally dependent on China and found an exit called Russia.

Relatively, China's influence on North Korea is reduced, so the relationship between the two countries is creaking. Crucially, the North Korea-China alliance treaty has been alive. In case of emergency in North Korea, only Chinese troops were allowed to enter North Korea, but Russia was also allowed to enter the North Korea-Russia Treaty this June. This has definitely hurt China's feelings. This is because China's goal is to secure influence over North Korea in case of ignorance, to occupy North Korea, or to create a satellite state, but it was blocked by Russia.

As a result, there is a significant conflict between the two sides, and the current conflict between North Korea and China is difficult to resolve overnight.

[Anchor]
In the meantime, North Korea is holding the Supreme People's Assembly tomorrow. The interest is whether to remove the provisions related to unification here. Will it actually work?

[Cho Han-beom]
Almost a given. Because Chairman Kim has already given an order. re-regulation of territory Then unification, national conception, and deletion. And I've been deleting it. He erased the unification and removed the memorial tower. I deleted everything without any rumors. What's left is a constitutional amendment between the two Koreas.

It should have already been done in April or May, but what has been delayed so far is that even Kim Jong-un feels uncomfortable to delete the unified people. It's the instruction of father Kim Jong-il and grandfather Kim Il-sung. I think I'm going to follow the instructions now that I've probably been troubled by the ideological correction, and I've probably finished the work. Is it really going to be ambiguous due to strategic ambiguity? Do you explicitly follow the instructions? That's the difference, but it will be reflected anyway.

However, the problem is that no matter how much North Korea, North Koreans cannot accept the deletion of national unification. Then North Korea is the only territory. This is hard to accept. Until now, despite Chairman Kim's instructions, there has never been any education, propaganda, or public events for the residents. This is a very volatile topic.

I'm sure they'll reflect it tomorrow. How to reflect it. It remains to be seen whether it will go to strategic ambiguity or strategic clarity.

[Anchor]
So, are you trying to erase the traces of unification even by changing the constitution with this intention of making the ideology clear?

[Cho Han-beom]
He seems to be so tough on the surface, but he made such a dangerous choice. Juche ideology is the core of North Korea, and Juche ideology is nationalistic communism. Nationality and unification are the key. It's an adventure to touch this. What that means is that they are so afraid of contact and connection with us. The closer we get to

, the closer the system competition is, the more overwhelming reaction to the Korean Wave, the Pyongyang Cultural Protection Act, and extreme punishment for North Korean defectors are all the same. So, if we separate into a completely different country, our goal is to maintain our dictatorship without being affected by us.

However, no one knows how the aftereffects will come out even if they are reflected at the Supreme People's Assembly tomorrow because they are in direct conflict with the existing North Korean ideology. Perhaps the most terrifying thing about dictatorship is ideological confusion.

He came to power because of his grandfather and father's halo, but he directly rejects his grandfather and father's wishes. Even North Koreans in Dandong can't answer when asked to delete the unified people, they can't explain. Until now, what has criticized us has been anti-unification and anti-ethnicity, but rather, they are putting themselves on the line. So you can say you're doing something very dangerous.

[Anchor]
The non-directed Jang Ki-soo, who was sent to the North, was originally called a unified patriot, but he is removing the unifier and removing the traces one by one. You said North Korea's intention. If implemented in practice, could North Koreans or high-ranking officials protest or refuse to accept it?

[Cho Han-beom]
It's difficult in the short term. It's such a systematic situation that resistance is impossible. However, in a situation where it was difficult to explicitly resist the Kim Jong-un regime, North Koreans got a justification. Because if Kim Il-sung's authority is 100, Kim Jong-il is less than 50 and Kim Jong-un is less than 10.

But with less than 10 authorities, this speeding idolization that erases grandfather and father, pioneering his own era. It's the same for Kim Joo-ae. He's trying to create a new dynasty that started with him. But even though they don't talk about it on the outside, it was their pride, in other words, the only thing they had about the governance system within the North Koreans.

When I met North Korean officials when inter-Korean relations were good in the past, I was very proud of the unified people. You have a lot of money, but you are soulless. I said we have a soul. Now, when you don't have money and you don't have a soul, you're just a beggar. So, to put it seriously by causing ideological chaos on your own, the act of stamping yourself in the foot can be seen as territorial regulations and the deletion of the concept of a unified nation. The aftereffects, in my opinion, are probably long-term and possibly fatal.

[Anchor]
Even if North Koreans can't easily accept this, North Korea says that even if only three North Koreans gather in this system, one of them will be monitored, so can it lead to resistance from the residents, realistically?

[Cho Han-beom]
In the case of the Romanian regime, almost 10% of the population was a surveillance agent. There was one wiretap for every three or four people. But it collapsed. The most important thing about dictatorship is fear. It's the authority that's forced after that. But these things seem funny because they shake the authority of the Kim Jong-un regime, internally.

In the past, for example, whether it was a nation or unification. It's because of the division that we're having a hard time. Everything about unification is better when it is unified. I've been brainwashing it like that, but there's no justification for it to survive because I shook it up.

Then you can't explain why the Kim Jong-un regime is needed or why it succeeded to power. On top of that, the economy is at its worst. Sinuiju and Uiju Yalu River flood. It's going into winter without being restored. a double robber Public sentiment there is at its worst.

So, it can be said that you are causing a crisis yourself to the point where you wonder why you make such a dangerous choice.

[Anchor]
In the midst of this, Chairman Kim Jong-un visited the artillery school again in a month. We have released the live-fire scenes of the graduates, and can this also be seen as a move ahead of the constitutional amendment that reflects territorial, territorial, and airspace regulations?

[Cho Han-beom]
Because they don't have naval power when provoking the NLL, they usually fire artillery into the NLL waters. But now special forces are visiting one after another and are seen as part of that action. However, because we had a very overwhelming event on our Armed Forces Day, North Korea was concerned about a high-intensity provocation. Of course, we'll have to wait and see. It's a response to that, you can see it like this.

And if the NLL territory is redefined, there is a possibility that some kind of provocation will follow. However, since the naval power is absolutely inferior, they use artillery to shoot the NLL, GPS disturbance, or gray area provocation. In this way, some kind of action to emphasize the maritime border they have drawn is very likely to provoke.

[Anchor]
I see. Let's stop here. So far, I've been with Cho Han-beom, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Unification. Thank you for talking today.