U.S. presidential election, 'all-out war' amid ultra-thin conditions...Who will win?

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor
■ Starring: Min Jeong-hoon, Professor of the National Diplomatic Service

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNOW] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The U.S. presidential election is less than a month away. Vice President Harris and former President Trump's approval ratings are still very close. The two candidates are engaged in an all-out war to win the hearts of contenders. Let's talk with Min Jeong-hoon, a professor at the National Diplomatic Institute, including variables at the end of the U.S. presidential election. Welcome. I thought it would be outlined if I talk to the professor a month away, but you really don't know, right?

[Minjeonghun]
That's right. It's so close. So I can't tell you who will be one of the questions I get a lot. It's really very close.

[Anchor]
Please show me the results of the poll. Harris v Trump. I'm showing you the results of the poll, and there are 3 percentage points difference and 5 percentage points difference, but this is the margin of error, right?

[Minjeonghun]
That's right. And the 2016 poll, there was a dark history in Korean. So, most of the predictions were that Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, would win at the time, but didn't Trump win? Therefore, since then, we have been looking at the numbers that have been evaluated in one way to overcome the range or limitations of a poll error. Current national polls show Harris leading by about 2%.

But if it goes into seven competing states, there's another aspect. As you know, to become president, you need to secure 270 votes, but to secure 270 votes, who will secure more voters in competing states, including Rust Belt, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, is slightly ahead of Harris, but the lead is narrowing and it's completely tied. The Sun Belt continues to lead Georgia and North Carolina with former President Trump at 1-2%, as does Arizona. He's ahead, but in Nevada, he's moved toward Harris, but the gap is narrowing. It's getting less than

1%. That's why, looking at this, I can't tell you that someone has 270 votes at the moment. It's really very close, so I'm keeping an eye on it.

[Anchor]
Since the U.S. presidential election is an indirect election, we need to secure electors. As a result, even if we have the upper hand in the overall vote share, there can be a situation where we can lose the final election, right?

[Minjeonghun]
The case of 2000 and 2016 is a very clear example. In the same case in 2000, then-Vice President El Gore and Republican candidate George Bush were a little ahead in the overall vote, although it was close. But on the electorate, Bush won when an important Florida electorate was handed over to George W. Bush. In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was ahead in the national vote, but Trump won as she fell behind in the electorate vote. That's because if you give voters a national indicator, resignations can occur. when allocating electors So, the Democratic Party is strong in places like New York and California with large populations, but this difference appears because resignations occur after the electors.

[Anchor]
I was analyzing the contest paper. The two candidates are so tight right now, but what would be the last place to win, so if you had to pick one place to compete in both camps?

[Minjeonghun]
The most important place is Pennsylvania. So, the total number of electors currently at stake in the seven competing states is 93. Pennsylvania has 19 of the largest electors at stake. If they don't get 19, they have to be combined considering other options. Harris is showing some strength in the Rust Belt and weakness in the Sun Belt except Nevada, so if they lose Pennsylvania, of course, they can make 273 votes if they beat Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and Nevada, but Georgia is now losing more than 1 percent.

That's why, in the case of Harris, if she misses Pennsylvania, her chances of winning will drop sharply. That's why Harris has to win Pennsylvania at all costs.

[Anchor]
Traditionally, which party is more supportive?

[Minjeonghun]
Pennsylvania is originally a contested state. So from 1992 to 2016, it was traditionally a Democratic stronghold. However, when it was handed over to Trump in 2016, it took on the color of the Republican Party, but even then, the difference was only about 0.2%. Then, in 2020, it was handed over to Biden, but even then, it was less than 2%, so he ruled in favor of the Democratic Party. It's a traditional neck-and-neck drink. So I have to watch the trend because it's going back and forth, but in this case, it's hard to say that any candidate has an advantage at all because it's so up and down.

[Anchor]
There are also interesting poll results. Vice President Harris is 2 percentage points ahead of the active voting floor. Former President Trump was found to be 4 percentage points ahead of the independents. Who can this be seen as more favorable to?

[Minjeonghun]
In the case of active voters, there is a high possibility that they will come out to vote. Then, if you look at the situation in American politics, the most important thing is to mobilize the supporters, that is, to vote. In that respect, it could be in Harris' favor. Because the active voting class is likely to actually come out to vote. But that's important, but on the other hand, the remaining votes are the nonpartisan and the Middle East.

So, they are candidates with moderate expansion. Because they are sensitive to current issues, it is a matter of moderate expansion. As you said, former President Trump is leading the nonpartisan party in this matter of moderate expansion. Then, Harris may take a breather in gathering supporters, but it is very difficult to say which candidate is advantageous because it is slightly behind former President Trump in expanding the center.

[Anchor]
Now, the difference is not large enough to make public opinion analysis meaningless. Anyway, since we don't have much time now, it will be very important for the candidates to go on the campaign trail, but former President Trump said he went to the place where he was shot. Is it to gather supporters, what do you think?

[Minjeonghun]
First of all, that's Pennsylvania, Butler City. Since it's Pennsylvania, it's the most important competition state, so we'll continue to go. So you're going, and you're going to visit various cities and you're going to raise your support, but this time you're going to Butler City and highlighting your strongman image by reminding you of the shooting in July. On the one hand, as I've said before, July was former President Trump's time to talk about the trend. So I'm being evaluated for winning the TV debate at the end of June and the shooting in mid-July. As the Republican National Convention continued, he was on a roll with three consecutive hits and a home run.

[Anchor]
The background of the convention was the White House.

[Minjeonghun]
That's right. So isn't former President Trump going to win re-election at this rate? Many of you must have thought this, but on the other hand, the shooting incident is a very useful political tool to gather supporters by emphasizing the Biden administration's security guard and polarization. If you think about it, the Republican National Convention and the strong leader are highlighted and you can't make full use of it and remember it, the shooting went down to the surface as former President Trump sent a message of unity at the Republican National Convention. So in a way, this is a very wasteful incident for the camp. There will also be things that highlight that aspect once again. So, while highlighting the Biden administration's controversy over the failure of security, I think it's a part of adding one more part to the overall situation.

[Anchor]
In the midst of this, Tesla CEO Elon Musk appeared at the support campaign, and if you look at the video, he ran around like a child and heated up the support scene. Will Elon Musk's support campaign affect the election?

[Minjeonghun]
I think it's going to have some impact on rallying Republican supporters.Will Ma have a positive effect on winning the votes of undecided voters? I think we have to wait and see. Since CEO Elon Musk has been actively supporting former President Trump since some time, some people have said that it's an embrace for his electric vehicle business, wasn't it? Anyway, if CEO Elon Musk comes forward and supports former President Trump, Republican supporters will cheer a lot.It remains to be seen whether this will be such an issue that directly affects approval ratings, as there may be different evaluations for nonpartisan supporters.

[Anchor]
Former President Obama is also going to campaign for support in earnest. For example, is there a meaning of continuing the black sensation? What do you think?

[Minjeonghun]
That's right. It's going to be a lot more destructive than CEO Elon Musk. Because he's a former president and a political figure who counts as the best legacy for the Democratic Party, isn't he going to compete to help Harris? If that happens, people in Pennsylvania and competing states are close because former President Obama is from Illinois. So those parts, and those with Obama-era nostalgia, if it's a Democratic stronghold, in 2008 and 2012, the Rust Belt area supported the Democratic Party, so I think it can have a positive effect on rallying supporters and winning votes from swing voters.

[Anchor]
There are also concerns about the possibility of disobeying the presidential election even though the election has not begun yet. Concerns are growing that former President Trump may disobey the presidential election. I think there are concerns that the parliamentary intrusion in the past and such things may recur.

[Minjeonghun]
I don't think there will be an unprecedented situation like the parliamentary intrusion of
Nevertheless, if the ultra-close situation continues to lead to the results, if so, and Harris wins the race in a very close race, then in the case of former President Trump, he will be able to disobey again and not admit to losing the election. If you show that, these parts that do not acknowledge the results of the election will continue to be expressed even among the supporters. However, since we have already experienced it in 2020, we can be cautious about all of these areas that lead to such unprecedented violence. And the people who are already involved have been punished.

So I think we need to keep an eye on that.In any case, if the election ends with an ultra-close race this time, so if former President Trump loses, the movement to refuse to admit defeat and disobey will continue, so I think there will be confusion in American politics for a while. On top of that, Georgia decided to use several tickets, not electronic tickets.

This is the result of voting fraud, some ultra-thin election, and some kind of reflection of former President Trump's claims. That's why I think these parts can be intertwined and a very confusing situation can occur.

[Anchor]
I think it's another variable, but the risk of aging seems to have shifted from Biden to Trump now. Former President Trump has recently been confused with North Korea and Iran. I think that image can be negative.

[Minjeonghun]
That's right. There's less than a month left before the election, but the U.S. media continues to highlight former President Trump's risk of aging. So, considering how badly President Biden suffered from the risk of old age in the past, if he continues to make mistakes with former President Trump in the future and causes controversy over his cognitive abilities, it could negatively affect the votes of undecided voters.

That's why I think that in addition to the economy, the Israel-Hamas war, and these variables, how much of former President Trump's unexpected aging risk can be highlighted for the rest of the year, this could have a slight impact on votes.

[Anchor]
Aren't concerns about escalation in Iran and Israel, and the Middle East, continuing to emerge around the world right now? I think this could also affect the U.S. presidential election.

[Minjeonghun]
It's very bad for Harris. So, we have to wait and see how bad the votes will be.Ma is the second in the Biden administration anyway, and the Israel-Hamas war started during the Biden administration, and even though President Biden and senior officials have worked really hard to prevent it, the war is still spreading, not decreasing.

There is no way to deny this even if it is a diplomatic failure of the Biden administration, as there is a situation where Iran and Israel can really wage an all-out war if they do it wrong. It would be limited for this to affect votes. Because if the U.S. directly intervenes in the war or there are American casualties, it can affect votes, but it's not that situation. It's limited, but the question is how the votes of Arab Americans, who live mostly in competing states, will work. Of course, I'm not going to go to Trump because he's very strongly regulating immigration policy, but if they don't come out to vote, so if they lose support for Harris in a contested state, then this could ultimately be negative for Harris, so I think Harris would be very nervous about it.

[Anchor]
All elections are like that, but this U.S. presidential election will only be known until the end, especially when the ballot box is opened. This has been Min Jeong-hoon, a professor at the National Diplomatic Institute. Thank you.