The situation on the Korean Peninsula analyzed even the war scenario of "direct landing of troops after shelling Yeonpyeong Island" [Now News]

An analysis has been raised that the possibility of a war on the Korean Peninsula has reached its peak since the 1950 Korean War.

Foreign Policy published a contribution by Robert Manning, a senior researcher at the U.S. think tank Stimson Center, on the 7th local time.

Senior researcher Manning said, "The worst situation of war on the Korean Peninsula is not expected to occur anytime soon," but added, "It has increased the possibility that North Korea will take dramatic action in the next six to 18 months."

At the same time, he cited a report by the National Intelligence Commission (NIC) last year that Chairman Kim would take a more provocative attitude if he was confident that North Korea's military power would overwhelm South Korea and that North Korea's nuclear would deter U.S. intervention.

Two war scenarios were then presented by combining existing analyses of Korean experts and NICs.

The first scenario is that North Korea shelled Yeonpyeong Island in protest of South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises and landed troops directly, and South Korea mobilized air and navy forces to attack North Korean ships and deploy Marines to Yeonpyeong Island.

As such a battle continues, North Korea can detonate tactical nuclear weapons on an uninhabited island in the West Sea.

Researcher Manning predicted that if such a scenario becomes a reality, it will be impossible to manage the situation because the U.S. and South Korea do not have stable diplomatic and military channels with North Korea.

Researcher Manning then presented the possibility of a simultaneous war between Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula, which was unveiled last year by former NIC Marcus Galerskas, as a second scenario.

In the event of China's invasion of Taiwan, North Korea can attack South Korea, taking advantage of the U.S. putting Asian military forces into the region.

It is also possible to have a scenario in which China and North Korea invade Taiwan and South Korea at the same time.

However, despite this situation, Manning points out that the U.S. and China do not urgently view the Korean Peninsula issue due to other regional issues such as Ukraine and the Middle East.

a journalist | Kwon Young-hee
AI Anchor|Y-GO
Edit Caption | Lee Mi-young

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