The Hill "Trump has a 52% chance of winning...Harris is 42 percent."

2024.10.21 오후 12:02
Former U.S. President Donald Trump, a Republican presidential candidate, is predicted to win over his rival Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

According to a self-prediction by political media The Hill and election site Decision Desk on the 20th local time, former President Trump has a 52% chance of winning the election, 10 percentage points ahead of Vice President Harris.

It is the first time since late August that former President Trump has defeated Vice President Harris, The Hill said.

As of the end of August, Vice President Harris had a 54-56% chance of winning the presidential election, while former President Trump had 44-46%.

Until early this month, both candidates maintained an ultra-close structure of around 50%, and on the 17th, they shared exactly 50%.

"The prediction results are in line with the recent situation in which former President Trump is doing well in competing states," The Hill said. "Former President Trump's approval rating is on a recovery trend, especially in Wisconsin and Michigan, which leaned toward Vice President Harris."

Former President Trump is already dominant in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, and Vice President Harris is ahead only in Pennsylvania, the media added.

However, all seven key contending states that will determine the outcome of the election remain close, and polls are also within the margin of error, so it is too early to predict either side's victory, Duhill stressed.

Meanwhile, according to the Washington Post's own average results, Harris is ahead in Pennsylvania and four states: Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada.

Former President Trump had close leads in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.


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