[News UP] After washing your face, "Punk"... "Blocking it back"..."I got 100 million coins".

■ Host: Cho Jin-hyuk Anchor
■ Starring: Kwon Hyuk-joong, Economic Critic

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News UP] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Following last year, the government decided to draw and spend the fund as there was a big hole in the country's living conditions this year. Meanwhile, bitcoin prices are unusual ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Let's take a look at the details with Kwon Hyuk-joong, an economic critic. Last year and this year, there was a big gap in tax revenue, but this year, it is about 30 trillion won short. First of all, what is the reason for the large tax loss?

[Recommending]
It can be said that the game was misjudged. I think the government might have judged too optimistically. Because the economy is low, so I thought it would get better in the second half of the year, so I over-estimated the tax revenue. After I opened it, I thought that my face would be less washed as time went by. So, it can be said that it became a misjudgment, and the representative thing is corporate tax.

In the case of corporate tax, it is expected to decrease by 14.5 trillion won, which will be less collected. It's not confirmed yet. Because this year is not over yet. When I saw this, there was a misjudgment. Representative cases of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix go based on last year's business conditions.

The corporate tax paid in March this year is zero won. This can be seen as a representative example. I'll tell you I'm sorry about the corporate tax. Secondly, it's because of tax cuts. Oil tax cuts are continuing. Of course, even though the cut was reduced, this has been going on for more than three years.

Then, the transportation energy environment tax itself will inevitably decrease. About 4 trillion won will be less collected from here. Then, if you do corporate tax, income tax, and oil tax, you have no choice but to go into a situation where there is no choice but to continue to be negative. In view of this, I think there will be a continuous shortage of tax revenues in the future.

[Anchor]
Therefore, it seems to have a big impact on the misjudgment that taxes would be collected more. That's what they said. However, in general, if this is insufficient, don't you make up for it by organizing an extra budget or issuing government bonds?

[Recommending]
That's usually the case. If you say you don't have enough tax revenue, you usually make up for it through an extra budget. As the government knows, it has actually set the standards for never increasing national debt by fiscal rules. So if you say you're doing an extra budget, you're eventually issuing government bonds.

Then, since they say they won't issue government bonds, they can't enter the extra budget. Then, in the end, it will be an area where we have no choice but to save the country's livelihood. So I'm constantly watching it. That's what I want to say. The country does a good job, too. Not only the people are leading, but the country is also leading. I said I would use the foreign exchange fund.

I'm also using the part that I'm going to use the foreign exchange fund this time, I used it once last year. This time, he said he would spend about 6 trillion won in external funds, which is also raising concerns in the market. Another thing is that they even looked at the legal reserve accumulated by the Bank of Korea.

The legal reserve is a fund that saves reserves to make up for losses if the Bank of Korea loses. This is an area that the government cannot use under the current law. But they did a legal review to see if they could use this. That alone shows how much the government is trying to save and try to steal.

Of course, you can't use the legal reserve. So what the government can actually do is a lump sum loan. In short, you receive a negative bank account from the Bank of Korea. I'm using this right now. This amount exceeds 152 trillion won. It's actually a huge amount of money. When I look at this now, I say that the government continues to cherish internally due to the deficit in tax revenues, these things stand out.

[Anchor]
You said that I'm also a young person. You said that the principle of not being able to increase debt further prevented the formation of an extra budget or the issuance of government bonds. You also mentioned the external evaluation fund, and it would be easy to understand if you let me know what kind of fund this external evaluation fund is now.

[Recommending]
In the case of the foreign exchange fund, it is a fund that we use to control the exchange rate. It's called the Foreign Exchange Equity Fund, and the exchange rate is very liquid. As a result, foreign exchange speculation forces always come in. Then you can think of it as a bullet to quell the foreign exchange speculation.

But I'm talking about the foreign exchange fund, and of course, I'm going to write about what's left of it, but what's wrong here is that there's literally enough foreign exchange reserves. It's enough because it's ranked 9th in the world, but foreign funds are used as bullets in it. Then, foreign exchange speculation forces will do foreign exchange speculation. Then, I make a judgment after looking at the external evaluation fund.

This country really has a lot of bullets. Then they get scared because they can also suffer damage. That's why I kind of put it back. If the foreign exchange fund continues to decrease, it could serve as an opportunity for foreign exchange speculators. As a result, I don't usually use the foreign exchange fund, but I used it last year. Since I said I will use it again this year, I personally believe that it is a little unreasonable to say that I will use it by adjusting the exchange rate in this regard.

[Anchor]
It's a breakwater fund to defend the exchange rate, and there's a concern that it breaks down this part. I'll give you the last question on this issue. What do you think we need to make up for by seeing this problem of tax breaks and misjudgment?

[Recommending]
I think it's a marital relationship. So I have a husband and a wife. But my husband told my wife. Let's save some. There are too many loans. I'm saying let's save because I have too much debt. Then your wife fully sympathizes with you. Yeah, let's save it. You save money on children's education and things like this.

By the way, my husband is really on someone else's side. He said he wanted to save it, but he kept lending it to others. I shouldn't even do that, but what if I say I'm cheating? Your wife will lose her trust in your husband. I don't think I'll save it even if you ask me to. I think it's probably that kind of situation right now.

Of course, I'm not saying that's the case, but I think it's a matter of trust. If there is a lack of tax revenue, grants are falling further in areas where education is insufficient. Given this, can the local government and the people believe what the government does? Since I see it as a matter of trust, I say that it is not at all desirable for this problem to persist in the state of tax deficits.

[Anchor]
I think I understood well because you gave me an interesting metaphor as a couple's trust relationship. I'll move on to the next topic. Bitcoin exceeded 100 million won in Korean standards. Why is it going up like this?

[Recommending]
The favorable atmosphere for Bitcoin rises whenever there is a report that the chances of former President Trump's re-election increase. I say that's because former President Trump has made very friendly remarks about Bitcoin. I'll do it as a strategic reserve of bitcoin to the US government.

In short, I've already announced that I'll use it as a strategic asset, and then I'll have Bitcoin mined in the United States. I made a very friendly statement to Bitcoin. Originally, he was a very critic of Bitcoin, but he sold his political funds, donations, or his goods products.

I got it in virtual currency. Then, it sold so well. In short, I tasted the coin. As a result, former President Trump has completely changed his mind about Bitcoin. So I made a friendly statement about Bitcoin, and the higher the awareness of the former president, the higher the Bitcoin continues to jump.

We've just exceeded 100 million won with our money. Yesterday alone, it was 98 million won. Even if you add a kimchi premium. Since it has exceeded 100 million won, I will think that there is a high possibility that Bitcoin will continue to rise in the future.

[Anchor]
Bitcoin is also flying on Trump's wind, I think you can look at it like this. The price of gold is said to have exceeded 520,000 won for one dollar, but why is this going up?

[Recommending]
It was already expected. Because it's time to cut interest rates. Then, interest rates will be cut, and gold prices will have to rise relatively. Gold has no interest. As other assets and currencies fall in value, people are interested in gold when interest rates are cut.

So there's a part where gold prices go up. Second, central banks bought a lot of gold. There is no choice but to keep going up, and finally, there are geopolitical risks. It's a representative stable asset. So the worse the situation in the Middle East, the greater the demand for gold. So the price of gold will continue to rise. The price of gold has exceeded the $2,700 mark per trion. There's talk in the market that it can reach the 2900 dollar mark. That's why I'm telling you that there's still a possibility that gold prices will continue to rise.

[Anchor]
And there's one more thing that goes up. It's a dollar, but the exchange rate is over 1400 won. Can you also tell me why?

[Recommending]
First of all, the strong dollar has continued, so I'll pick some reasons for that. It's the same. It's because of the U.S. presidential election. The higher the probability of former President Trump's favorable articles and the stronger the dollar is, in fact, because if you look at former President Trump's pledges, prices will eventually rise.

The increase in prices literally puts off the timing of the Fed's rate cut. Then, of course, it's an area where strong dollars are bound to come out. That's why the exchange rate goes up. Second, the U.S. economic indicators are coming out very well. In the market, people say that it is not a soft landing, but a non-landing. That's how good the U.S. economy is. Then, of course, it's a strong dollar.

Third, because of the situation in the Middle East. Because of the preference for safe assets, I'm looking for more dollars. Because of these major reasons, the dollar continues to strengthen. Then this is the problem. The exchange rate will increase, but it's about whether to pierce 1,400 won or not. The 1400 won range is the psychological resistance line.

In the past, it was said that if we pierced 1,400 won, our economy would collapse. There is also a view that the 1,400 won range should be viewed as a new normal. This is what Deputy Prime Minister for Economy Choi Sang-mok said, but the 1,400 won range is a new reference point. Will he admit this now or 1400 won? Or maybe I'm at a crossroads to defend this.

[Anchor]
There are a lot of questions left, so we'll proceed with it in a speedy way. I'm curious about the general review of our economy. Looking at the economic growth rate in the third quarter, it grew negative last quarter, but it was still in place this time. There is also a prospect that it is a complex crisis. The Bank of Korea says that it is only a slowdown, not a recession. What's right?

[Recommending]
This time, the growth of 0.1% in the third quarter was surprising. Because the original expectation was that the Bank of Korea would grow by 0.5%. 0. It fell by about 4 percentage points. Looking at this, it is said that our economy is in a complex crisis. So, if there's actually reverse growth in the fourth quarter, there's a big problem. The reason why economic growth is slowing is because of exports. So, if you look at the statistics of the third quarter, exports were not as good as I thought.

The reason for this is that you can see that the export power of semiconductors and automobiles is much lower than in the past, and the competitiveness is falling. If domestic demand is not allowed and exports are not allowed, it will be considered a crisis for Korea's economic growth, and the government is likely to be thinking about this.

That's why the U.S.-China conflict is growing. So there's something I'm more concerned about. Because if the U.S. keeps China in check. If that happens, China won't be able to export. The reason why Korea has a problem is that more than 20% of us export to China, and most of them are intermediate goods.

This exports to China as intermediate goods, but if we can't export it to China, we can't export intermediate goods. Then, the growth engine actually declines. This complex crisis is now in our economy. That's why I think the government is paying a lot of attention. You can look at the exchange rate at the center. It can be said that Korea's capabilities depend on whether it can defend the exchange rate well or not.

[Anchor]
Earlier, we shared concerns about former President Trump's second term, this part, and if Trump comes back to power, inflation could come, because of tariffs. We're talking about this. What are the prospects?

[Recommending]
When former President Trump was re-elected, protectionism was the key. In the end, tariffs will raise inflation. Because of course, the tax on goods goes up, but the price of goods goes up. As a result, the part about tariffs will stimulate inflation.

So the scenario is coming out, and if 60% tariffs are imposed on Chinese goods, you have to look at 2025. The inflation forecast is 4.4%, and it's going to skyrocket again. I managed to catch it. Then you can't actually lower interest rates at the Fed.

As a result, it will be an area where prices are bound to jump. Tariffs are more than 10% on average. So we're seeing inflation of 3.7%. 2025 is the biggest problem. Looking at this, the pressure on inflation will increase. Then, as I said earlier, the strong dollar will continue, the exchange rate will rise from our point of view, and if the exchange rate rises, the import price of Korea will rise and the price of Korea will jump at the same time.

So there are three major issues when Trump comes back to power, and if you look at them all, they are related to China. So it was created to keep China in check. Likewise, if China is checked, Korea's exports to China will inevitably slow down, so this can be seen as a reflective profit for Korea, but it is not a good trend for exports overall. In fact, we have no choice but to enter universal basic tariffs. I think it has no choice but to affect it.

[Anchor]
It's about how the first part of the semiconductor law in the graphic will affect our economy. In short, it means that it will prevent Chinese investment in semiconductors and high-tech. What's going to happen?

[Recommending]
It's the chip method, but if the semiconductor method is actually implemented, in my opinion, it can benefit from reflection. Because in the case of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electronics is slowing down in Korea because the price of legacy semiconductors, that is, general-purpose semiconductors, has fallen too much, and China is at the center of it.

China has lowered the price for legacy semiconductors, so we are not receiving the price of general-purpose semiconductors at a reasonable price. So, as China's semiconductor regulatory policy is strengthened, I will think that there are certain areas where Korea can enjoy reflective profits in this area.

[Anchor]
I see. I think we don't have enough time if we always have a critic. Thank you for your comment. We will continue to invite you to talk from time to time. I was with Kwon Hyuk-joong, an economic critic. Thank you.