"Up to 1450 won..." Surging exchange rate, resistance line broken due to 'crisis of martial law'? [Y Record]

■ Host: anchor Lee Jung-seop, anchor Cho Ye-jin
■ Starring: Lee Jung-hwan, professor of economics and finance at Hanyang University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News START] when quoting.

◇ Anchor> Before the martial law incident, the foreign exchange authorities recognized that even if it exceeded 1,400 won, it was an emergency at that time, but now it can be pushed back to 1420, 1430, and 50 won. Is there a possibility that the resistance line will be broken?

◆ Lee Jung-hwan> The exchange rate is deeply related to the demand for a specific currency. There are certainly trends in Korea's economic situation, and there are opinions that exports will shrink if the U.S. raises tariffs or something when the Trump administration comes in. What happens when exports shrink is that the supply and demand of dollars is not smooth. As a result, the exchange rate tends to rise and the uncertainty increases, but in fact, the exchange rate trend does not seem impossible in a way because it is in response to demand for fundamentals and uncertainty. I think a lot of people are evaluating it. Even if you go down, it's in the early 1,300 won range. At that time, many people seem to speculate that when the U.S. cut interest rates and asked to see when it cut interest rates at a time when it made a big cut, it would be almost below that. There were a lot of talks about 1,100 won and 1,200 won in the past, but look down at 1,300 won and go up to 1450 won. In the short term, many people predict that it will move that much. There is also a reason for the uncertainty I mentioned earlier. Changes in U.S. trade policies and exchange rate policies clearly reflect the impact of Korea and supply and demand due to sluggish exports. In the end, the level is bound to be determined by the supply and demand mentioned earlier, so I can tell you that these fundamental factors have changed a little.

◇ Anchor> As our economy is uncertain and unstable like this, the government has no choice but to be busy, but Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Choi Sang-mok seems to be strengthening communication with foreign countries.

◆Lee Jung-hwan> There was an impeachment in 2017, and even then, the Ministry of Economy and Finance managed it a lot that there was no problem with the health of Korea because it was an IR event. I keep doing conference calls and consulting with foreign investors. In fact, companies ask for these things. The government should talk about the stability of these systems to businesses. The Ministry of Economy and Finance has no choice but to play this role because it continues to make demands to stabilize them while disclosing them to foreign investors, so to speak, large foreign investors. Of course, what companies say is important, but at the corporate level, it is much more reliable for the state to say this, so I know that the Korean Chamber of Commerce and Industry continues to demand it from the Ministry of Economy and Finance. What that means is that the martial law situation has come and the martial law has been resolved, and the signals that these things are unlikely to happen again and that there will be no major financial problems are clearly stated, and the Ministry of Economy and Finance wants the government to guarantee them, and accordingly, there are many conference calls these days that have no choice but to carry out them. In fact, when I go to Hong Kong in 2017, I think I'll actually do that again because I've made a lot of efforts to issue bonds such as Korean government bonds while doing IR events and traveling around the world. In particular, bonds issued in January are very important. Foreign exchange bonds issued in January are important factors that determine interest rates in a year, so in a way, they will make a lot of effort in December. I think it can be predicted that the Ministry of Economy and Finance will play a lot of roles in clarifying that there is no problem with Korea and there is no problem with external credit, and that investors should know this and that there will be no big problem by making this data.

Excerpted from the Talk: Kim Seo-young, Editor of the Digital News Team

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