[News UP] North Korea "Ready to fire forward"...Pyongyang drone 'mystery'

■ Host: Cho Jin-hyuk Anchor
■ Starring: Researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, Yangwook

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News UP] when quoting.

[Anchor]
North Korea has ordered its forward units to be ready to fire. The South Korean military says it cannot confirm the facts about North Korea, which has collectively called the subject that sent drones to Pyongyang "the Republic of Korea." Let's look at the situation between the two Koreas in a flashpoint. With Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Welcome. It is said that the military unit in North Korea has been on standby since 20 o'clock yesterday, what do you think is the current situation?

[Yang Wook]
First of all, of course, there was an order, so we can expect that the units in question, the eight artillery brigades, would be basically prepared for operations.Ma said that according to North Korea's story, he would prepare eight brigades with the wartime organization system in a state where the entire staff is deployed. However, in fact, North Korea has 12 artillery brigades, and eight of them are used to prepare for the strike. Then, we're talking about the state of war, and we can prepare for the operation with enough personnel, but I'll tell you first that we need to take a closer look at whether that's actually intended for war or really doing that with the intention of hitting.

[Anchor]
Then, does the Commissioner think that this is unlikely to lead to actual provocation?

[Yang Wook]
That's not the case yet. So, I'm not saying that it's okay to just ignore it. Of course, under the assumption that North Korea can do something bad, let me say this again. If North Korea actually sees this as a wartime situation, if you look at North Korea at the time of the DMZ artillery provocation in 2015, it has declared a quasi-state of war, and a large number of front-line units have maneuvered, and even dispatched all of their submarines, for example. If the North's intention was to raise it completely from the current status quo, it is highly likely that the North made the announcement in the general staff's statement rather than in the name of the defense ministry spokesman.

Then, when I look at the Ministry of National Defense's spokesperson's statement, I say, "How do I express it?" It is said that the operation preliminary order, that is, the general staff gave the operation preliminary order. If so, it's not a fabrication attempt, but it feels like North Korea has put a brake on it once, and it gave an operation preliminary order, and it's said in the name of a spokesman for the Ministry of National Defense? In fact, it's a form that hasn't been seen well in the past, but it's sending a message that North Korea is talking about something like this with the brakes on at least once. However, North Korea's intention is to increase the level of tension as much as possible by conveying the message that it will mobilize such power even though it is not a small force.

[Anchor]
In the end, Vice Minister Kim Yo-jung warned about the drone flyer incident that a catastrophe could occur in the event of a recurrence of the situation, but should we understand it as a measure that is in line with it?

[Yang Wook]
That's right. If you look at North Korea recently, the basic activities of the Republic of Korea, especially the military efforts, are very... How should I say this? I think there is a sense of fear or fear. As you know, the establishment of our strategic command was announced at the last Armed Forces Day event, and then the Hyunmoo-5 missile, which is the world's strongest among conventional missiles that can destroy the North Korean leadership, was unveiled. And it sent a message of the end of the regime, that is, if North Korea uses nuclear weapons or does something wrong, it can end.

But these things are what North Korea keeps reflecting on. So Kim Jong-un has already repeated his stories almost twice or more, more than three times, and the event of Armed Forces Day. Kim Yo Jong is also making sharp sounds.Ma seriously doubts this behavior by these things. So, what if we get attacked about our abilities and things like that? I think the enemy has a very strong ability. You can read in such a strong message that you are conscious and concerned about this. In that context, North Korea is very nervous in a way, but now a drone has appeared over Pyongyang. Then, North Korea took a picture of it and released it, but in fact, it was not able to shoot it down. So I can tell you that these parts are creating very complex variables in North Korea's position.

[Anchor]
The fact that the drone roamed the sky in a situation where you were actually feeling a certain kind of fear would have given you even more fear. If so, let's look at how the drone flew and sprayed flyers from there. First of all, from the distance, it seems to be about 300km round trip, but there is a question mark on which way you sent it. There are also questions about whether the private sector has this kind of technology, so what do you think?

[Yang Wook]
To put it very simply, North Korea started sending drones into the territory of the Republic of Korea in 2014, and the problem continued. The distance that the drone flew seems to be at least 500km. But the drone was a Chinese-made Minsu type drone.

[Anchor]
It's not even a military service.

[Yang Wook]
It was Min Su Yong. So North Korea sent it to hide that they sent it themselves. Like
, for example, it is said to have been sent from Imjingak, Paju, but it may be later than that. It may be a place where we don't expect at all. It could be Incheon, it could be Gimpo, and it probably didn't go straight from there. If I were to think of it, I'd go around the coast. Then the actual round-trip distance would be over 400km. I would have flown normally like that, but then can I make it? It can be made by the private sector.

This is the case in China because private companies have already made drones with such performance. It's enough to buy parts and make the same here. If the national intelligence agency or something like this sent North Korea with the intention of deceiving it like this, it would be better to just get it from somewhere or copy it and send it, there is no reason to make and send a new model in such a cumbersome way. In that context, I can tell you that this is not related to the existing military or anything like this. When I looked at the form of the propaganda leaflet, I could also confirm that it was not sent by the organization that sent the existing propaganda leaflets to North Korea.

The reason is that if you look at the existing North Korea leaflets, you have to show a lot of information in a limited way, so there are a lot of letters written very densely. It's very small, because it needs to spread. But if you look at that, it's not a place where there's much know-how in spreading it. Once you drop it in a bundle, it comes down in the middle, scatters like a bomb, and if it's sprayed in the middle, you won't know, but dropping the whole barrel doesn't seem very professional in this area. And the shape of the Vira is completely different. If you look at the paper material now, you can't see it as a very thin and waterproof material used in existing propaganda leaflets. So it's possible to predict that it's not something that was done by the organization you were sending.

[Anchor]
Then this is just a guess.And if it's not Ma, and it's not any North Korean organization, then where did he spend it?

[Yang Wook]
Well, first of all, what I'm going to tell you is basically enough to be sent from the private sector. The technology is sufficient. Then there may be enough intentions. For example, if you look at North Korea's behavior and this part, wouldn't it be possible for those who were frustrated to send this part directly? In the past, cases of civilians who infiltrated small drones into the northern area and filmed them have also been introduced on broadcasts. So let me just reiterate that this is not at all impossible for individuals to do.

[Anchor]
If so, let's analyze the message shown in North Korea's response. As you explained earlier, the North Korean side is reacting very violently, so can't this be interpreted as a message for internal solidarity?

[Yang Wook]
So, for example, some people are talking about the possibility of a self-written drama, but in fact, this is a very burdensome act to talk about a self-written drama. What I mean is that the sky over Pyongyang, where Kim Jong-un is located, was pierced three times. In fact, this is a very big event that is natural even if the main personnel in Square are purged several times. In a way, if you hit North Korea and came over three times, it means that you couldn't shoot down all three times, but are you going to reveal that thought yourself? In a way, North Korea has shown itself that there are loopholes in its Pyongyang air defense network. But do you have to print that in the Rodong Sinmun? It's a self-written drama. I think it's a difficult thing to do. Then, you mentioned that this is internal solidarity, but solidarity means that we have to get together and fight well because they are bad objects, but in fact, this is seen as a message of internal control rather than a message of solidarity.

The difference between solidarity and control is to spread the message to the residents that if you collect solidarity well and let's fight something like this, let's go out, control is only you, but if you pick up something like a flyer that's dropped from a drone, you won't be safe. If you look at it now, doesn't North Korea continue to send filth balloons and other things this year, and don't they put pressure on the Republic of Korea by sending trash balloons and other things? What the North fears most is that accurate information is delivered to the North Koreans. However, for example, it is difficult to respond to each North Korean leaflet, but the success rate of North Korean leaflets is not that high. So, it doesn't mean that the success rate delivered directly to the residents is relatively meaningless, but it's because it depends only on the wind. If a drone comes and starts spraying such propaganda leaflets properly, there's really no way for North Korea. So if additional related things happen and drones come in and out of North Korea as they want, as if they are crossing the North Korean leaflet, North Korea will not be able to tolerate this. That's what I think. So, before that happens, I think we can read the drone-related thing as North Korea's preliminary stone that we will respond strongly, almost like a war, so that you won't be able to do this.

[Anchor]
Listening to what you said, I can fully understand North Korea's violent reaction, but with concerns about provocations continuing to emerge, the South Korean and U.S. military authorities will discuss North Korea's provocation on the 16th. What will be mentioned?

[Yang Wook]
Basically, there is a good chance that North Korea will increase tensions in this way. And I can't guess who the drone is.Ma, if the private sector sent it, it's an element that our government can't control. These can be a little burdensome for the government as well. That's why this situation can lead to more so-called escalators and expansion in the future.

We should have countermeasures in place in advance. So, as Korea and the U.S. are discussing now, there may be various countermeasures, such as whether additional U.S. troops are needed, or whether extended deterrence assets need to be deployed a little more over here, or, for example, conducting the South Korea-U.S. joint drills a little earlier, or preparing new drills even lightly. Anyway, it is very important to consult with the United States at this point. There's also this part. Now, the U.S. is also signaling a very strong response to North Korea's actions. As you know, when North Korea uses nuclear weapons, the term "the end of the regime" is not just a pretense, but when the United States makes such remarks about other countries, it is not just a pretense, but it is simply an unforgivable act to use nuclear weapons. In the actual South Korea-U.S. joint exercise, the North made a mistake in its nuclear-related actions, no matter how small it was, and the North has been practically conducting drills and procedures that will destroy the entire North Korean regime. So, if North Korea doesn't understand these parts properly, I think it's probably included in these various measures to make it understand exactly once again.

[Anchor]
Tensions between the two Koreas are now increasing after the drone flyer incident, and it should be noted in the future. I was with Yang Wook, a researcher at Asan Institute for Policy Studies,
. Thank you.

[Yang Wook]
Thank you.