[Issue Plus] Counting the count of North Korean troops?Ukra "In a few days"

■ Host: Lee Yeo-jin, anchor Jang Won-seok
■ Starring: Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Division at the Korea Military Research Institute

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News PLUS] when quoting.

[Anchor]
North Korean troops are gathering in the Kursk region, a battleground of the Russia-Ukraine war, and there are circumstances that the deployment is imminent. In the midst of this, the South Korean military has repeatedly dismissed it as worth responding to North Korea's claim that Baengnyeong Island is the take-off point of the drone that crashed in Pyongyang.

Let's take a look at this with Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Office at the Korea Military Research Institute. Welcome. There are reports that the North Korean military is about to be deployed, so when will it be deployed?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
If you look at the video that's coming out right now, I think we've really started counting. I think how much the North Korean military entered Russia varies slightly from source to source. 3,000 people in Korea and about 10,000 people in the U.S. say they will go by December, and about 3,000 people in the U.S., but in fact, 12,000 people have already come in from Ukraine. Anyway, videos continue to show that you're moving to Primorsky Krai and even getting off at the airport in western Russia by transport plane and going from there by truck to the front line by private bus. From that point of view, I think I'm going to put it on the wire soon, but I'm a little worried because I think the adaptation period is too short.

[Anchor]
If you look at the various videos released, there is an interpretation of whether the soldiers who are going to be deployed there are the best units because they are young and thin.

[Kim Yeolsoo]
Conflicting information still seems to be at the level of intelligence right now, and it doesn't seem to be fully confirmed by information. To sum it up, one thing is that the Storm Corps, a special force of the North Korean military, is going to be a key force. And we saw the video clip a while ago.Didn't Ma see very young North Korean soldiers receiving Russian supplies?

But if you look at these faces, you look very young. For your information, the North Korean military is conscripted at the age of 17. That's why height and weight are important to go to the military. It is 148 centimeters tall. I'm sure you'll be surprised if you hear this. We weigh 43kg, so our middle and high school students probably won't understand, and our women, including our female anchors, will probably get a sense of how much we weigh.

[Anchor]
Elementary school students are bigger than that these days.

[Kim Yeolsoo]
That means you can go to the military even if you're so small. So when I see the faces of the North Korean military, I think they look very young and vulnerable. So, although it is still conflicting information, I think that intelligence will probably be produced as information.

[Anchor]
As a result, some analysts say that Kim Jong-un sends a bulletproof soldier with weak combat power to the advance party and then sends skilled soldiers after that.

[Kim Yeolsoo]
I think a military expert said that in the Wall Street Journal. I agree with most of what came out of the Wall Street Journal.Ma thinks at least this is something I can't agree with. Because no matter what unit it is, when soldiers in the Korean army generally do something, the sergeant, sergeant, or corporal always do it first, and the private or private sees it and copies it, so they learn and move up the ranks.

But if you send troops who are so young, have no combat experience, and have no training first, will you only be able to get a bullet? Why would you do that? So in my opinion, it's a bit of a wrong analysis, but rather, I think that if we send very experienced and skilled troops first to search, then we can continue to have those troops afterwards.

[Anchor]
On the other hand, Kim Young-bok, deputy chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army, who is now interpreted as a close aide to Chairman Kim Jong-un, has entered Russia, what kind of person is he?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
This is the person who served as the commander of the Storm Corps in 2016. And in January 2017, he was the commander of the special operation forces. So, Special Operations forces, then you may not quickly understand what this means, but we only have the Army, Navy, and Air Force. This is called a military servant, in technical terms. But the Army, Navy, Air Force. North Korea is a strategic force. And divide it into special operations forces.

So this special operations force was established on January 1st, 2017, and this is the guy who was the commander of the special operations force. Then, in January 2018, through the so-called 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in North Korea, this person was elected as a member of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party. And if you look at it like this this year in 2024, I became the deputy chief of the general staff of the general staff and continued to carry out Kim Jong-un, but the number of times this year alone is slightly different.Ma is considered to be a close aide because he carried out Kim Jong-un seven to nine times.

[Anchor]
How much is it in Korean class?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
That person is called a certificate of merit. It's a little different when you call the rank. In our country, when we call a general, we call him brigadier general, major general, and general general. North Korea doesn't call it that, but one star is called a major general, two stars is called a major general, three stars are listed, and four stars are called major general. That's why he's a public official, so he's a three-star man with the rank of a lieutenant general in Korea.

[Anchor]
This is the person who served as the commander of the 11th Corps of the Storm Corps. What role will you play there?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
In my opinion, I think it will play two major roles. So, in the end, the total number of people going this time will form a single battalion, and then the brigade commander, the battalion commander, and the company commander will be aligned all at once, and the troops below them will be commanded like this by their supreme commander, right?

If you are commanded like that, you will serve as the commander-in-chief of the North Korean military in Russia. The other thing is that he has the potential to carry out such a mission as a partner with the Russian military's Ministry of Defense. One thing I would add is that if he doesn't return home soon and stays there for a long time, in addition to the role of commander-in-chief and partner I mentioned, now more than 10,000 troops are only the first deployment, and the possibility of a second and third dispatch is open. You can see it like this.

[Anchor]
Do we continue to maintain that level of 10,000 or do we continue to accumulate more people?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
When we dispatch troops to the Vietnam War, the pigeon unit goes first and then the white horse unit, the blue dragon unit, and the Maengho unit. There were three divisions in the combat division alone. When I first went, I sent a pigeon unit and a taekwondo unit, but later, there were more and more. As such, North Korea cannot rule out the possibility. So the troops that have gone now will continue to be replenished accordingly if they continue to be sacrificed with new resources.

Other than that, another large unit can go, and another large unit can go. It probably depends on what mission the North Korean troops sent to Russia now perform, what role they play, and what sacrifices they make.

[Anchor]
Now, the North Korean military is risking the lives of the North Korean soldiers dispatched, right? However, when the Ukrainian military authorities intercepted the Russian military, they analyzed that they seemed a little dissatisfied with the North Korean military, so why is that?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
There are probably a lot of things. The biggest thing is that the instructions have been given to the Russian troops who are currently deployed in front of them, first give them equipment and weapons to the North Korean battalion and give them to the North Korean army. So from the Russian military's point of view, I don't have enough weapons, I don't have enough equipment, I don't have enough ammunition, so are you telling me to give this to the North Korean troops over there? They even express themselves as Chinese. There's a complaint like that.

Another complaint is this. We're talking about putting one Russian interpreter and three Russian soldiers together for every 30 North Korean soldiers. That's why they say this in Russia, too. We also don't have enough troops, but when the North Korean army comes, they can operate as they want. I think the Ukrainian military probably intercepted their complaints about why we have to attach interpreters to it and why do we have to go there by three Russian troops?

[Anchor]
What's the point of attaching those three? Do you intend to monitor them to prevent them from defecting?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
That's not it. Perhaps the execution team will go to North Korea separately to try to defect. The execution team. They're executing them so they can't escape from North Korea. I think I'll go there separately. It's basically like this. Thirty people can be seen as a platoon unit, but if that platoon unit tries to move, someone has to translate it eventually. That's why we need an interpreter. These 30 people are not familiar with the topography of Russia or Ukraine, have never conducted joint training, have never been outside, are familiar in the mountains, but they are all plain over there. We're fighting in the trenches. It's a similar situation to World War I. I don't know this. Then three people in each of the 30 people in Russia teach them. Then, I think that a lot of uncomfortable things could happen to each other.

[Anchor]
Does the execution team immediately kill if there are signs of attempting to defect?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
Maybe the execution team will be in action after receiving that order.

[Anchor]
Then, what role will the North Korean troops put into that battlefield play? There is also a saying that they have been trained in Russian drones. How do you predict whether you will enter the infiltration tank as a communicator?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
Basically, there's a mission that special forces have to do. Korea's Special Warfare Command is basically carrying out the same task, but basically, it's factor kidnapping, factor assassination, rear disturbance, destruction of enemy command posts, and supply stations. It plays a role in destroying all of those things. Then, would you do it right away as soon as you go? I don't think that's right.

At first, you'll probably be fighting in a close-knit area. Once you get used to it, and as I said earlier, you infiltrate the rear and raid the enemy command post.If you don't, there's a possibility that you can destroy that ammunition depot or something like that, I see it like this.

[Anchor]
We also have this intention to induce North Korean troops to defect to South Korea, so what do you think is the possibility of defection? As you mentioned before, the execution team.

[Kim Yeolsoo]
There is a very high possibility of defection. In particular, when is there more possibility of defection? If you think about it, as I told you a while ago, the division commander, brigade commander, battalion commander, platoon leader, and platoon leader move together to maintain the military presence in our military terminology.

Then, there is less possibility of defection, but if we distribute our North Korean soldiers to Russian military units and give them speed, there will be a problem. So, I think we've changed all the North Korean soldiers into Russian uniforms now. The meaning of this word is that it will be assigned to the Russian military and sent out rather than maintaining a healthy state. Then, from the perspective of the Russian military, it is very likely that North Korean soldiers will be put in the front. If that happens, there will be more sacrifices.

In that case, if you surrender to Ukraine with the flyer after the psychological warfare works a bit, you will have a much happier life, freedom and bread. Maybe it'll be something like that. If you say so, the possibility of desertion, it's very likely.

[Anchor]
Our delegation will hold a briefing at NATO, but separately, the NIS will send an observation team to interrogate prisoners, including experts in psychological analysis of North Korea. What is this like?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
I think that went out a lot. First of all, the first deputy director of the National Intelligence Service, the head of the intelligence department of the Ministry of National Defense, and the diplomat went to NATO now. We'll probably have a meeting today tomorrow. We'll have a meeting. Basically, the first deputy director of the National Intelligence Service went to see if it was true about the dispatch of North Korean troops, how much they went through some channels, what training they did and how they are going to the West.

That's the focus and NATO will share their views on what they think. And then you're going to say how you're going to cooperate, but basically, NATO has a system called VICE among NATO troops. Although this is a technical term, the battlefield information collection and utilization system is called the byce system. This is what 32 NATO member states have.

When our president talked to NATO Secretary-General on the phone last time, he said that we should also do some by-se and know how to use it, and that he would positively review it. I think there is a possibility that we will cooperate on this part, too.

Lastly, if I say one more thing, we will form a monitoring team. We're at war with Hamas and Israel now, but I think we went to Israel for monitoring or not? Of course, I'll go. It's because this is basic. Why do we need to know about the weapons and equipment that Hamas uses or what the characteristics of the equipment are. This is something that the opposing state must do.

And now, the monitoring team is in Poland. But now the North Korean military is directly going to Russia, so now we have to go to Ukraine in earnest and the monitoring team has to go. If you look at the monitoring group broadly, you'll have three agents.

The first will be information collection and analysis personnel who collect information on North Korean military equipment, weapon systems, and tactics. The second one will be a psychological agent. As you just said, the psychological warfare agent will be involved in the North Korean military's desertion issue or the North Korean military's psychological warfare so that the North Korean military can surrender to Ukraine. Third, you'll need an interpreter. So these agents are not troops, this is. I think a very small number of people will go and play that role just because it's not a unit but a monitoring agent.

[Anchor]
On the other hand, North Korea, which claimed that a South Korean drone penetrated Pyongyang, disclosed the flight route from Baengnyeong Island, and it was confirmed that this was a provocation by the South Korean military. However, even if it is right to take off from Baengnyeong Island as they claim, there is no evidence that this was sent by the Korean military, right?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
First of all, I would like to say exactly what the spokesman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said was not worth replying to. First of all, before that, I think North Korea is making this a self-made play. Because on July 27, 2023, on the 70th anniversary of the Armistice Agreement, North Korea released a video of two drones flying over Pyongyang.

One is the same as the Global Hawk and the U.S. drone Global Hawk, and the other is the same one called the Libra. While watching the video, why is Global Hawk flying over Pyongyang? I thought why the rib is flying over Pyongyang. What's that? It's a replica. So I think I have that kind of replica.

In that sense, North Korea has made enough copies of that shape, so as I said this time, the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia is becoming a very important issue not only at home but also around the world, right? As a means to cover this up, I think he's doing his own drama with this drone. Second, as you said, if you go from Baengnyeong Island, the drone currently owned by the Korean military is 140 kilometers per hour and the maximum flight time is 4 hours.

If you do it roughly, it's about 560km, but you can come and go. But the drone that the Korean military has over there is for reconnaissance. This is only a few hundred grams for reconnaissance. But how about a flyer, it's a few kilograms. It's sweet and I can't move. North Korea is exaggerating about this. I think so.

[Anchor]
The Joint Chiefs of Staff warned that they would take appropriate action if North Korean drones came over to our area, but what kind of measures would they take?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
We've announced all of the drones that crashed in 2014 and 2017 in Paju and Inje areas over there. After the drone, the Korean military introduced a local radar system. It's an international air defense radar system that captures things like drones. It's because there's that first, so you can do it through that. When North Korea flew a drone in December 2022, it was also found and spread by air defense systems.

Second, there are so many ways to defeat the drones we have. For example, there are helicopters, B-5 balkans, 20mm, and 30mm, but the question is whether to drop the drone or not. It's not a matter of whether you can drop it or not. You can do it, but if you drop it, the rifle goes out one by one. But as I told you, the B5 complex or the helicopter shoots go out like this. Balkan guns also drop 20 to 30 shots 30 to 40 shots at once. It's falling into a private house. It comes back to damage to our people.

That's why you're going to burn thatch just to catch bedbugs. It's just that the government has a lot of worries about it. I want to tell you that. Now I have another one, and that's the laser weapon. If the laser weapon shoots about 20 kilowatts, it can catch everything in the 3km range. I even added a name here. It's called Cheonggwang. Starting in the second half of this year, we will start placing it in the front. So it's not completely deployed right now. I'm telling you that there are a lot of

means, but let me try, for example. Everyone is looking at North Korea in the DMZ right now. But what if the drone doesn't come in there and comes into the West Sea? So, keeping in mind that various ten police can't catch a thief, and in my opinion, from Kim Yo-jong's statement, North Korea will definitely make a drone provocation in a not-too-distant time. I think we should watch with alarm.

[Anchor]
We continue to be their one-sided argument, we cannot confirm, it is not worth answering. I think it's very embarrassing to ignore it like this. Kim Yo-jong reacted nervously, saying, "I really want to see what you say when you're in the same situation."

[Kim Yeolsoo]
That's what I'm talking about right now. So, as I said, you're going to send it once, to put it simply. If you look at what North Korea has revealed now, it has revealed 38 flight plans. But if you look at it, it was released from June last year to October 8 this year, and the drone command was actually established on September 1st. So it's been there before that, and the second thing is, this is more decisive, but in the worst case, wouldn't you think it could be dropped?

But before that, would you have just sent it without erasing any records? You can't do that unless you're a fool. But I said that there was such a thing. There's one more last one. Is it October 10th in North Korea last time? When we talked about drones, you said you sent drones three times in Korea, three days, eight days, and 10 days. But I'm missing three days this time. There are 3 days left and I only talked about the 8th and 9th. So even though they're revealing it now, if you continue to analyze it in various ways, there are a lot of sloppy things. So if you look at all of this, it's a self-written play, but I'd rather give it a vote.

[Anchor]
I see. I pointed out the North Korean issue with Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Office at the Korea Military Research Institute. Thank you.