TN Radio (FM 94.5) [YTN News FM Wise Radio Life]
□ Broadcast Date: October 25, 2024 (Fri)
□ Host: Announcer Park Gui-bin
□ Castor: Adjunct Professor of Real Investment Analysis, Graduate School of Myongji University, China
* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information.
◆ Announcer Park Gui-bin (hereinafter referred to as Park Gui-bin): It is a policy financial product that the government lends up to 250 million won at a low interest rate of 2% to 3% per year when homeless people with an annual income of less than 60 million won buy a house with an annual income of less than 500 million won. I'm running a stepping stone loan. Recently, as the scale has continued to increase, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport asked commercial banks to refrain from expanding loans, but it was temporarily suspended in the face of strong opposition from end-users. Land, Infrastructure and Transport Minister Park Sang-woo attended the parliamentary audit yesterday. It announced that it would come up with customized improvement measures, including the exclusion of the application of the non-metropolitan area. Will the trend of loan regulation continue? Let me find out more about it. Let's call a professor of real investment analysis at Myongji University Graduate School in Chinese Literature. Hello, professor.
◇ Adjunct Professor of Real Investment Analysis, Graduate School of Myongji University, Hanmundo (hereinafter referred to as Chinese drawing): Yes, hello.
◆Park Gui-bin: First of all, what did the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport announce the regulation on stepping-stone loans?
◇Hangmundo: Yes, the basic content is. Newlywed couples and homeless people receive loans for the first time in their lives, and it is called the mortgage recognition ratio. I did up to 80% of LTV. Let's reduce the loan limit to 70% for this part. The second is to give a guarantee to the Korea Housing Finance Corporation or this side when you get a loan. It is called semi-public system, so some amount of the loan amount is deducted from one room due to the small priority tenant preferential payment system. In the case of Seoul, it's about 55 million won. Excluding that, I calculate the amount of the loan. But in the general market, this part is called MCI and MCD, so if you buy insurance, you will lend without deducting the room deduction. Now, the contents have been delivered to the banks that they will strongly enforce the room deduction.
◆Park Gui-bin: Yes, that's why end-users protested so much that they said they would temporarily suspend the implementation. So what's the decision now? Is it going to be implemented?
◇Hangmundo: The implementation continues. However, the application target is now the Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport. There are a lot of comments about Minister Park Sang-woo's sudden removal from the media about this part. I'm not stopping it. As I said, aren't you going to reduce the loan limit? In this part, end users who have to sign a contract or pay the balance suddenly have a different budget. If I give it to you? So, let's relieve these parts a little bit, and what's clear is that in the future, we'll divide them into the metropolitan area and the non-metropolitan area. The Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said in advance that he would keep this part in the non-metropolitan area and maintain this policy direction in the metropolitan area. I thought I'd do this. So you should think that you shouldn't do it, but you should think that the metropolitan area and the non-metropolitan area are applied differently.
◆Park Gui-bin: I see. Usually, before implementing these policies, it had a big impact on the market, so I think they gave a notice in advance, but was there a notice in advance this time? I don't think so. How was it?
◇Hanmun-do: Yes, from the perspective of our general consumers and homeless people, they would accept it as a sudden reduction. The government's position must be a little disappointed. Because from June, the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs has already talked about loan regulation on macroprudentiality. The Bank of Korea also sent a lot of messages in July and every time there was a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, it was in discussion with the government. Because of the payment, multi-homeowners and experts expected this policy to be implemented, but importantly, DSR regulations were postponed for about two months. Like that, I just made a presentation thinking that the market would know when I did it again. The general consumers are embarrassed because it's on the bank side. Of course, as I said earlier, the government cut interest rates this time because it was in a hurry. As I work hard on that part, I have to look into the inconvenience of the people in detail, but I made a mistake in that part, but fortunately, Minister Park Sang-woo came out right away and said he would take such measures in the future, and a confirmation plan will probably come out within a few days.
◆Park Gui-bin: Yes, I see. So, it is right to implement this loan-regulated loan reduction plan, but it goes slightly differently by region. That means that customized improvement plans will be announced soon. However, since this is a policy loan, I think that if this is regulated, the probability of not receiving loans from end users will increase. How do you see that?
◇ Chinese characters: That is the wrong frame. Excessive regulatory policy in the media is doing so because the loan policy is slightly changed, but as I said earlier, the loan limit is reduced from 80% to 70%. Then, the pattern of reducing the limit on loans for increasing the amount of loans that you have received in that part of the room deduction. Then it's about 70%. In our common sense, shouldn't we have 30% of our own money when we buy a house? Conversely, it's good to buy a house with 20% of it, but there are a lot of areas where some people in the early 20s and 30s and 40s calculate interest and use it as a gap investment. Since the transfer tax is tax-free after three years, the government has now caught this part, so there is no need to borrow excessively. I think this is how the atmosphere is judged right now. And crucially, the government and the Bank of Korea have continued to talk about policies to strengthen macroprudentiality. Of course you know that, but isn't our household debt serious? You can think of that as the policy direction from the government to the national economy.
◆Park Gui-bin: I see. Therefore, it seems that the government's will to prevent a surge in household loans was also there, and as you just said, it seems that it paid a little attention to strengthening macroprudentiality. As a result, the representative low-income loan policy is somewhat reduced. How will this affect the real estate market?
◇ Hanmun-do: Of course, as we know, if interest rates rise or vice versa, if loans increase, the demand for loans will increase because the interest rate cut will be eased. If that demand increases, of course, the value of the asset does not increase, right? If demand decreases, of course, it falls. So if you feel it temporarily, we want to talk about this, but it's called the negative effect. It's a psychological theory published by Elizabeth Lucas in the 1940s. There are times when one disadvantage stands out rather than 99 good things. In that regard, what the anchor is saying now is that if you can't get a loan, you can't finish buying a house or it's causing a lot of damage. But on the contrary, if you think about it, the fact that this loan gives it means that the demand will give it in the future. In other words, demand is falling little by little for a soft landing of real estate, which is the government's policy direction in the mid to long term. It's adjusting. Doesn't that help the consumer in the long run after all? If you think about it one more time, there's an expression like this. There is also an expression of predictable irrational behavior. So, if we look at it in the long run, why is the government doing this to the point that end users are embarrassed right now? What kind of trauma is it about the house? You might think that it would be more expensive if you can't buy it now. As a result, I think I was surprised to hear that I was reducing loans, but if you look at the advantages again, not the negative effects, you will see that the house will go down in the mid- to long-term, and there will be a reduction in demand and a stabilization effect on housing prices. And since foreign institutions and domestic institutions are seriously considering the problem of household debt, I think this will help the economy and the real life of our people, although there will be some complaints from real users in the mid to long term.
◆Park Gui-bin: But isn't the atmosphere of the real estate market actually a little different between the metropolitan area and the non-metropolitan area? The real estate market is becoming more polarized. There is also a story like this, but this regulation also seems to go in a slightly different direction between the metropolitan area and the non-metropolitan area. Then how do you forecast the atmosphere of the non-metropolitan market?
◇ Hanmundo: The atmosphere of the non-metropolitan area is the opposite, so this is also a slight difference of thought. In the non-metropolitan area, it means that the housing loan limit will not be reduced, but will just maintain the present. Then there's nothing better than the current state of the market. The conditions are now weak in the metropolitan area, so I think I've decided quickly that the non-metropolitan area is better because the metropolitan area is regulated. Strictly speaking, whether in the non-metropolitan area or the metropolitan area, the market will be maintained if there are effective demands that can be borne by consumers and that the loan interest rate is stable and affordable. But if the price is high, of course, the transaction volume decreases. Then, as you said in local metropolitan cities now, the Seoul metropolitan area has been on the rise for several months from June, July, and August, but the provinces have continued to move sideways. I think it's a little hard to see that it can suddenly get better because it didn't suddenly increase the amount of loans. However, the things that have accumulated a lot of unsold property in the provinces are now being exhausted by discounting real estate prices over time. I think the transaction will be revived if the price of the province is adjusted a little more. Apart from this measure, the branch was moving in the market.
◆Park Gui-bin: I see. But you said that this measure will affect the soft landing of the market in the long run, but in fact, people without homes are faced with a situation where it is difficult to get loans. Then what kind of judgment should those people make now?
◇Hangmundo: The fact that it's hard to get a loan. The actual content is not particularly reinforced. Isn't there a demand for this investment demand gap investment? The government's position is that it will thoroughly protect end users because it has put a certain focus on this area. So, as you are concerned, the non-metropolitan area remains the same. In the metropolitan area, only the loan limit is given, so you have to prepare again for the budget or preparation. There may be such inconveniences, but as I said earlier, it helps stabilize the housing market in the mid- to long-term, so don't be impatient that they will give you a loan now, but if time goes by when the loan is reduced, you can go then if it becomes my ability when there is a little adjustment. Those who are at a certain critical point of buying a house with a 10% loan will be limited, and overall, I think it will be helpful because it is a downward pressure on homeless people in the mid to long term.
◆Park Gui-bin: This stepping-stone loan is a low-interest loan in the 2% to 3% range per year, but this product will also be regulated a little more, forcing homeless ordinary people to flock to high-interest loans. Don't you agree on that, too?
◇ Chinese characters: That's right. If we think the other way around, it's the same negative effect as before. be driven to high-interest loans We talk about this. If you can't borrow, then it means that people who want to borrow and save by receiving high-interest rates are too much. When you overdo it and buy a house, if the future synergistic or stability effect is guaranteed, you will follow it. It's a problem. However, few people will move on to the high-interest market because that is not the case now. However, it is true that those who have excessively invested and have exceeded the loan limit are going in a way that psychological minds are quite bad for multi-homeowners. However, from the perspective of end-users, in my view, isn't there a lot of damage if you deliberately go to high interest rates and pay this much interest rates only after you're not stupid, and if house prices go up when they go down? However, when interest rates are low, the impact is small, so you can hang in there and manage your assets for a while, but high interest rates are burdensome. Then, I predict that consumers will respond smartly to the market on their own.
◆Park Gui-bin: Can you briefly summarize your niche strategy for real owners?
◇Hanmundo: Yes, the price of the house has been going back and forth and going up and down, and it's been repeating for about two years now. It's called loan principal and interest. It is most stable to prepare a house as long as it is able to repay the debt burden that has been received less, whether it is receiving a lot of loans from the price of the house. And I'll tell you that no matter what economic crisis comes in the future, there's enough room to withstand it at all, so if you approach it too much, you might have a difficult situation, so I'd better do it at your own income level.
◆Park Gwi-bin: Thank you. Until now, I was an adjunct professor of real investment analysis at Myongji University Graduate School in Chinese Literature. Thank you.
◇한도:: Yes, thank you.
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