[News UP] Retaliation in retaliation...Is there an all-out war between Iran and Israel?

■ Host: Anchor Yoon Jae-hee
■ Starring: Ma Young-sam, former ambassador to Israel

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News UP] when quoting.

[Anchor]
As Iran fires ballistic missiles at Israel, the war clouds in the Middle East are getting thicker.

Let's take a look at the background and impact of this raid with experts.

Ma Young-sam, former ambassador to Israel, is connected. Hello, Ambassador.

[Ma Youngsam]
How are you?

[Anchor]
Iran, which had been seeking retaliation, eventually launched a missile attack. It is said that about 180 missiles were poured, but 180 missiles overnight can be considered very large, right?

[Ma Youngsam]
I think it's quite a large scale. There are also reports that it's 180 shots or more. When Iran attacked Israel on April 13, it fired more than 300 rounds, including missiles and drones. However, since drones take a lot of time to arrive, I think I focused on missiles this time. So, considering the size of the missile and the destructive power this time, it can be evaluated as being at the last level or higher.

[Anchor]
Iran has successfully hit about 80 to 90 percent of its targets, while Israel has announced little direct damage. The U.S. also stipulates that Iran's attack is a failure. What do you think, Mr. Ambassador?

[Ma Youngsam]
First of all, I think we need to look at the extent of the damage that has come from Israel. There are reports that one or two people are slightly injured, and the destruction of the facility destroyed a restaurant, which is very minor. Rather, there are reports that an Arab has died. So the impact of the attack is very limited this time, like last time, you can evaluate it like this. Then did you fail? It is evaluated that such evaluation from the US side is part of efforts to prevent escalation.

[Anchor]
In fact, there have been many predictions that Iran will not act directly, but the scale of the airstrike itself was as large as you said. What was the background?

[Ma Youngsam]
Recently, the intensity of Israeli attacks has become very strong. There is now an intense attack on Hezbollah and several factors have been assassinated. In the midst of this, there were many criticisms and disappointments that Iran, which leads the axis of resistance, only left it to proxy wars. So in the end, I think Iran participated in this attack.

[Anchor]
For Iran, which has long been subject to economic sanctions, it must have been a big burden against Israel. This is actually the part that Ambassador Ma kept pointing out last time. Can we say that the retaliation was not a ground war, but an air defense strike?

[Ma Youngsam]
Now Iran attacks Israel in a ground war, it's very difficult. I think it's almost impossible. Because the distance is 2000km away. If so, we focused on missile attacks like last time, but once we see Iran's announcement, Iran will retaliate again if Israel retaliates in the future. That can be interpreted as meaning that Iran will also quit if Israel does not retaliate. In other words, I think he announced his intention that it would be better not to make sure. Therefore, I think it should be analyzed that Iran does not want this attack to spread further.

[Anchor]
That's what Iran wants.Ma says Israel is foreshadowing retribution. When and what kind of way can we expect it to be?

[Ma Youngsam]
That's the most pressing concern right now. Because depending on the level of Israel's response, I think we can determine whether this is really going to go to all-out war or not. On April 19, Israel attacked Iran. Then they attacked the air defenses defending Isfahan's nuclear facilities. So, what targets does Israel have in mind this time? It's likely that you're thinking of strategic assets, attacks on them. They are nuclear facilities or genetic facilities. If so, an attack on here would be a very dangerous situation that could simply lead to an all-out war. That's why the United States is now making every effort to prevent further escalation to prevent the situation from getting worse.

[Anchor]
There was an analysis that Israel's defense cost was astronomical when Iran attacked Israel's defense network in April. Could this be a variable in determining the level of Israel's response in the future?

[Ma Youngsam]
I think there is enough. Because the war against Hamas has already been almost a year. And now there are 370,000 reservists, but a significant number of reservists are already mobilizing. Then the entire Israeli economy is bound to shrink because they are the ones who have to work on the industrial front. So right now, Israel is feeling quite burdened by the economic burden and public opinion. But now that Iran has launched a large-scale airstrike against Israel, Israel is probably thinking about how to attack Iran and what targets to attack right now.

[Anchor]
I'm actually very interested in what kind of movement the U.S. supporting Israel will make, but the U.S. has been consistent in its position to prevent escalation anyway.Is there anything other than military action that Ma can offer?

[Ma Youngsam]
For the United States, the first is to maintain this policy of making every effort to defend Israel against attacks. However, on the other hand, ahead of the U.S. presidential election, the U.S. expects the situation to calm down somehow without worsening it. That's why even now, the United States continues to struggle to achieve a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Therefore, it is expected that we will continue to work with Egypt and Qatar on this part of the ceasefire negotiations.

[Anchor]
As in April, there is a possibility that the two sides will close the conflict while saving face with each other. How do you see this?

[Ma Youngsam]
From the reaction of the Iranian side, that part seems to want to go in that direction sufficiently. The problem is Israel. Depending on how much retaliation is raised for this attack, it seems to be at this juncture of whether it will save face or continue to expand. I think we need to wait and see Israel's response a little longer.

[Anchor]
Israel has now entered a limited ground war in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Will this ground war continue regardless of this attack?

[Ma Youngsam]
I expect it to continue. Because Israel's difficult decision to deploy ground forces is now that about 100,000 Israelis have fled from the north to the south, and they have repeatedly declared that they have such a heavy mission to return them. So it looks like Israel will continue to maintain ground war until those goals are achieved, and the primary goals are achieved.

[Anchor]
Every time there is a conflict between Iran and Israel, concerns about an all-out war in the Middle East continue to be mentioned. If this kind of conflict continues, do you think there is a good chance that it will escalate into an all-out war?

[Ma Youngsam]
Of course, there is. However, I think the biggest variable here depends on how much the U.S. refrains from doing so. For the United States, the presidential election is very close right now. If the United States tries to keep this close and drag it in an advantageous direction toward Harris, and if it becomes an all-out war, it will absolutely work against the Democratic election. Therefore, I think we should also observe very carefully the actions of the United States.

[Anchor] Okay.

I looked into the details with Ma Young-sam, the ambassador to Israel. Thank you for talking with me today.