Is Israel hitting Iran's nuclear facilities in a 'viral cycle of retaliation'?

■ Host: anchor Lee Jung-seop, anchor Cho Ye-jin
■ Starring: Park Hyun-do, professor at Sogang University's Euromena Research Institute

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The crisis in the Middle East is escalating. As Iran, which has been using proxy forces, directly hit Israel, Israel has declared its willingness to retaliate.

How will Israel, which holds the key to the fifth Middle East war, move with intensifying saturation everywhere? Let's take a look at the relevant content. Park Hyun-do, a professor at Sogang University's Euromena Research Institute, also came out. Welcome, professor.

[Park Hyun Do]
How are you?

[Anchor]
Welcome. Israel has also been cautious in its attacks on Iran. However, Iran has attacked for the second time since April. This time, unlike before, it was carried out unexpectedly without any prior notice to neighboring countries?

[Park Hyun Do]
Shortly after the attack, Reuters said it informed the United States and Russia. At the UN, the Iranian representative never informed the United States, only informed Russia, and the United States said that it informed them after the fact without prior notice. So I think it was a secret from neighboring countries and probably a surprise attack.

[Anchor]
Was there an intention to hit it properly this time?

[Park Hyun Do]
When we attacked in April, we informed all neighboring countries three days ago. Because the aircraft needs to take off and land. But this time, I attacked right away without it, and during the April attack, I used a lot of conventional weapons. Since we used conventional weapons, it could have been intercepted or destroyed in the middle because it took a long time to arrive in Israel even if we departed from Iran. This time, it's only a fairly small amount of profit, so in April, it's 350 units. This time, it's about 180, 181, and in some places, it's 200. In general, I think it would have been quite a hit to use a new weapon and reach Israel in almost 12 minutes.

[Anchor]
And if you look at the target, it's not an attack on the whole of Israel's Tal Aviv or civilian facilities, it's targeting military facilities. Should I say that there's this much intended part?

[Park Hyun Do]
If it falls into private facilities, there is a high possibility that it will spread. So Iran is not trying to escalate this attack, but Israel killed the supreme commander of Iran and Nasrallah, right? I said it was retaliation for that. We had to retaliate, but we only attacked military facilities to avoid civilian areas. If you look at the reports that are coming out now, Mossad Base, Nevatin Air Base, and Haserin Air Base. In general, the F-35 and F-15 fighter jets that attacked Hasan Nasrallah. It seems that the main target was to attack military air bases with F-35s and F-15.

[Anchor]
As you said, a new weapon has been mobilized for this attack. However, the U.S. and Israel claim that there was no damage. Do you think the air defenses worked well with the U.S. defense as this claim?

[Park Hyun Do]
There's something we need to think about. It's a war situation. I don't say that the affected side suffered damage in a war situation. In April, Iran and Israel did, and we have no problem. I said that we can stop that kind of attack. According to the announcement, Iran's attacks in the United States and Israel were nothing and prevented, but it seems to be damaged.

Because there are many parts of the live video where Iranian missiles are properly inserted, along with the sound of explosion. So it's quite, because you can see more than 10 bombs falling from the naked eye and it seems to have been successful, so the U.S. and Israel's claims are exaggerated, but Israel didn't stop them alone. So the French got involved, the British got involved, the Germans got involved. So it's actually burdensome for Iran to say that Israel did not stop it alone, but that European countries and the United States did it together.

[Anchor]
As you said, the U.S. has also blocked it, and I'm looking at it like this, and it has revealed the Biden administration's firm support for Israel, can I also understand this intention?

[Park Hyun Do]
In April, Iran's attacks also prevented the U.S. from nearly 50 percent or more. So you can't stop it with the Israeli Iron Dome. Therefore, Israel alone cannot defend itself. That's why the United States has always shown a clear signal that it will protect Israel. So the U.S. has been consistently emphasizing Iran. It's also quite burdensome for Iran because they've always said that if Israel attacks, the United States can't stay put.

[Anchor]
In the end, the concern is how the actors will act in the future, but first of all, Iran said that the attack was on the level of self-defense and that they would not attack unless Israel retaliated. However, Israel eventually talked about retaliation, and the White House said that the United States is very active in Israel's defense, but it will consult with Israel on the attack. What will happen in the future? Will the retaliation continue?

[Park Hyun Do]
I think we'll retaliate for now. Israel is not a country that will let go. However, since Israel is also burdened, it is not able to retaliate immediately and is going through a stage of consultation with the United States. So there's a little bit of control, but I think Israel is definitely going to attack 100%. Moreover, Iran now says that we have invoked the right to self-defense, but what right to self-defense on the Israeli side? We didn't attack you guys. So this is not the right to self-defense, and Prime Minister Netanyahu said in his address to the nation that he would definitely retaliate against Iran, so we have no choice but to do it.

I'm actually worried about how far I'll go. There was talk of attacking nuclear facilities. However, if you attack nuclear facilities, the wavelength is too big. The U.S. is putting the brakes on that. Then there are two things that are coming out right now. I think I'll definitely do military facilities. Then it's whether to attack oil-related facilities or not, but why is the story now suddenly attacking oil facilities?

Some say why Iran attacks Iran's oil facilities when it has only attacked military bases, but there is a saying that one of the places that Iran attacked this time was a gas facility in Ashkelon. So I think Israel was also attacked by gas facilities. So in retaliation for that, Iran is likely to attack oil facilities, the most painful part. But the problem is that attacking oil facilities will have a significant impact on global oil prices. That's what I'm worried about.

[Anchor]
Depending on what happens to Israel's next military action, the direction is changing now. There is also a prospect that an all-out war and a fifth Middle East war could occur. In the end, Israel holds the key to war, should I look at it like this?

[Park Hyun Do]
So the Israel-Hamas War that started on July 10th of last year, Israel doesn't see it as the Israel-Hamas War. Netanyahu's government sees this as an Iran-Israel war because it thinks this will happen again if it doesn't touch Iran, which supports Hamas and supports Hezbollah. So somehow Iran doesn't keep moving proxy forces outside the ring and come up to the ring and play against us, this is what Israel is about now. Then, when you come up to the ring, it doesn't work whether it's a war between Israel and Iran. Because the U.S. will definitely intervene.

What Israel wants is to create a confrontation structure between the United States and Iran and take the opportunity for Israel to organize all the nuclear facilities that Iran threatens Israel's existential existence. So I'm ready for an all-out war, and neither the U.S. nor Iran wants that. So there's a possibility that Israel will continue to attack until this happens because one side wants the axis and the other side doesn't want it. The key is how much Iran can tolerate provoking and attacking and then.

[Anchor]
The international community and the United States continue to raise their voices to refrain from escalating. If my voice keeps going up like this, wouldn't there be a situation where I'm going to be self-conscious?

[Park Hyun Do]
Israel doesn't care. The problem is that the biggest key to preventing this war is that if the United States somehow stops the Gaza War, it will be stopped for now. But the United States can't do that. That's why we have to order a ceasefire, but we can't. Even among the Israeli people, the families who are taken hostage are suffering. It's been almost a year, isn't it? 101 people are still left. So those families also want a ceasefire, and I hope it's a ceasefire. I hope we can catch our breath after the ceasefire and then solve the problem, but if we continue to exchange without a ceasefire, there will be more unnecessary damage.

[Anchor]
Now, let's look at the Lebanese front. Israel, which had been at war with Lebanon in the past, put back its ground forces after 2006. The news is that Israeli troops have been killed and tanks have been destroyed. Hezbollah seems to be fighting a very fierce battle because it is on the edge of a cliff after losing its head.

[Park Hyun Do]
Hasan Nasrallah said a few years ago that Hezbollah had 100,000 troops. However, even if about 3,000 Hezbollah members were damaged by radio calls and radio explosions this time, there will still be many Hezbollah members. Of course, the leader is destroyed, but there will also be shadow leaders, so the struggle with Israel is likely to continue. Originally, Hezbollah is not such a solid organization.

Individuals jumped into the anti-Israel front, and people who blew themselves up and threw bombs combined to form an organization. So you can think of it as going back to where it was, even if it collapsed. Do these people then stop the anti-Israel struggle? I'm not going to stop. Of course, I'm saying that it's a limited ground war for Israel. It's hard to do an all-out war. It's bound to cause damage to Israeli soldiers.

[Anchor]
And Israel, regardless of Iran's direct attacks, continues to be a ground war against Hezbollah anyway. I wonder how far this will advance and how long it will last.

[Park Hyun Do]
If there are clear guidelines, there are at least two big things Israel asked Hezbollah to do before it attacked it. The first and biggest thing is that there is no demilitarized zone between Israel and Lebanon between the two Koreas like us, so there is no buffer zone. So Israel wants to create a buffer zone, but where to create it is that Hezbollah should retreat 7km back from the border where Lebanon and Israel meet. We have to retreat because 60,000 residents living on the Israeli border and within 5 kilometers have fled their homes since October last year. We need to resettle them. So go up to 7km. That's the biggest condition.

And when we went to war in 2006, we have the UN resolution, Article 1701. I mean, combine the Hezbollah army with the Lebanese army and the regular army to get rid of Hezbollah itself. There are two conditions, but the second condition is not easy, but the first condition is possible. If Hezbollah makes some concessions. But Hezbollah can't concede. Because every time Hezbollah talked about it, it was a very unrealistic story. So isn't there Hezbollah facilities within 7km that Israel is now entering a natural ground war? There is also a tunnel, and there are casualties as they go in to destroy it.

[Anchor]
There is even an analysis that Israel's relentless attack eventually pushed Iran to a critical point, but in this situation, some analysts say that Israel has fallen into a trap. What do you think?

[Park Hyun Do]
No, I don't think it's missing. First of all, you lost a lot of face. From the perspective of the supporters, Iran, which is sponsoring the shadow war, is doing nothing to us when we are beaten like this. I was beaten like this. I felt a lot of pressure. That's why Iran decided to do this nationally, by holding the entire government and even an emergency meeting. The president actually took a very conciliatory attitude, but he can't do it in this situation.

So Iran attacked this time, but didn't they attach a clue? I'm very careful about two things. After Hasan Nasrallah's death, Iran continued to talk of retaliation, saying that the axis of the anti-Israel front is Hezbollah, and Iran said it would support Hezbollah. Iran didn't say it would do it itself. That's why you're avoiding a big fight. Second, Iran said that if Israel does not retaliate again after this attack, we will no longer have an attack.

That means you don't want to make a big difference. And I know Iran too well. I know from the start of the war that Israel will somehow want to drag Iran in and fight, so for Iran, the goal is not to paint the picture that Israel wants. However, I think it would have been better if I had endured it again this time. Then, it would have been difficult for Iran to endure, but it would have been much more space for Iran to move on the diplomatic stage, but it is unfortunate that that part has narrowed.

[Anchor]
Even within Iran, moderates and hard-liners had a fierce confrontation. In the end, this attack was made because the hardliners won.

[Park Hyun Do]
The moderates couldn't have won in this situation. I couldn't win, so I gave up on the diplomatic part and attacked.

[Anchor]
Then, as the professor said, it would have been better if we had put up with it once more, but wouldn't it have been concerned that if we overlooked this Israeli attack once more, Iran's existence and the balance of power would be lost?

[Park Hyun Do]
I don't think so. I'm sure there was a big face problem. And the question of doubts about proxy forces. But I think it's very ideal, but I think when this comes out from the beginning, Israel will continue to provoke Iran, so what should Iran do? I thought I had to endure it. In the long run, I thought the winner was Iran, but Iran responded this time. That's how much we've lost in the diplomatic space, and then when Iran again attacks Israel, that's what our perspective is now. The question is how much of an attack Israel will make. If this attack goes to an operation like Hassan Nasrallah's assassination of a major Iranian leader, it would be really hard for Iran to bear. So now the key is held by Israel.

[Anchor]
As expected, the key is held by Israel. But that doesn't mean Iran-backed forces in the Middle East will stay put. Before Iran launched the missile attack, Hamas had already committed terrorism in Tel Aviv, claiming that it had done so. Then, in this way, won't small forces continue to terrorize in the future?

[Park Hyun Do]
It's going to be terrorized regardless of Iran. Then the most important thing to keep in mind is Iraq. It's very likely that forces in Iraq will attack U.S. military bases in Iraq. So the U.S. military will also be in a very uncomfortable situation. The Houthi rebels will keep going. So, regardless of the situation in Iran, their anti-American and anti-Israel activities are bound to continue.

[Anchor]
The Middle East crisis is growing like this, and the international community, especially the United States, has been acting as a mediator and is losing control of that role. What do you think of this analysis?

[Park Hyun Do]
It's because of the U.S. presidential election. I can't do this or that because of the presidential election. In particular, even in the case of the Biden administration and Harris, they have no choice but to speak and act separately. So that it doesn't affect the presidential election. So this situation will continue until the presidential election. Things will be better after the presidential election. Of course, no matter what candidate gets better, no matter who Trump or Harris becomes president, there's absolutely no problem with pro-Israel policy. However, the pressure on Netanyahu may be slightly different. If Harris becomes a candidate, it's not going to be very good for Netanyahu.

[Anchor] I'm also a little curious about the purpose and goal of Israel, which holds the key of
, but after all, Lebanon-Hezbollah is doing it in the north, Hamas is doing it in the south, Iran is continuing to attack in the east, what are the goals that they want to achieve through conflict?

[Park Hyun Do]
If you think about it very narrowly, there are two things the Israeli government should do now. The first one is to rescue the hostage. And we need to resettle the northerners. Then you have to negotiate with Hamas or push Hezbollah up and do this, but Netanyahu is drawing a bigger picture. Netanyahu brought out two maps in his last speech to the United Nations. One is said to be a map of blessings, and the other is a map of curses.

The blessing map is that we want to make the Middle East a place where trade is invigorated while making peace with Arab countries. However, the map of the curse now brings such a map with Iran's supporters, and as long as Iran exists like this, the Middle East is unstable, and not only the Middle East but the whole world is unstable. So we said that what we want is a blessing map. The new Middle East that Netanyahu thinks refers to a Middle East that is not threatened by Iran. Ultimately, it is Iran's transition of power that will bring Iran to its knees or want it the most.

[Anchor]
I've looked at the situation in the Middle East. So far, Park Hyun has also been with Professor Euromena Research Institute at Sogang University. Thank you very much. Thank you.