Israel in "If So, War"... Is "Axis of Resistance" shaking?

■ Host: Lee Harin, anchor Lee Hyun-woong
■ Starring: Park Hyun-do, professor at Sogang University's Euromena Research Institute

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Israeli forces' attacks on Iran and its proxy forces are spreading across Lebanon to Gaza, the West Bank and Syria. [Anchor] On the other hand, Iran's supreme leader Khamenei appeared in public for the first time in five years and showed his willingness to respond hard. Rising Middle East Crisis, let's point out with experts. Park Hyun-do, a professor at Sogang University's Euromena Research Institute, also came out. Hello.

Israel's attacks to eliminate Hezbollah are spreading in all directions, but yesterday's attacks appear to have attacked a new head?

[Park Hyun Do]
The new leader is Safiedin, who replaced Nasrallah, the saton of Hasan Nasrallah, and Salimasi, the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, who Trump ordered the assassination. We are also close to Iran. Israel seems to have lost its life in relentless retaliatory airstrikes. There's no word that they found the body at the moment. On the Israeli side, they say there is no possibility of being alive.

[Anchor]
As you said, there are reports that the death is presumed, but considering that you are dying, Hezbollah's power or the situation could be disrupted, do you see it like this?

[Park Hyun-do]
First of all, Hezbollah's local leadership is almost in a state of collapse. However, the collapse of the leadership does not end the organization. Because a new leadership will be appointed again. Actually, it's a big hit. The hit is huge, but does that mean Hezbollah is completely gone? It's hard to expect.

[Anchor]
Then, if a new leadership emerges again, air strikes like now can continue, is this expected?

[Park Hyun Do]
Maybe this will continue to happen at least until the presidential election. It's the best time for Israel to move until the U.S. presidential election. Because the U.S. can't control Israel. Because of the special situation of elections. But after the new president is elected, it will be more stable than the current situation, so this is prime time for Netanyahu, for five weeks. I think we're trying to achieve something within this period.

[Anchor]
Trying to achieve something, what do you see as the end goal?

[Park Hyun Do]
I will remove Iran's influence. So as Netanyahu brings a map from his speech to the United Nations, the map of blessing is a map without Iran. It refers to a map where Iran's influence has been removed. Ultimately, Netanyahu's dream of a new Middle East has completely removed Iran's influence. So it's Netanyahu's story to talk about such a world where Israel and Arab countries can coexist economically and peacefully.

[Anchor]
The goal of the ground war is the same, right?

[Park Hyun Do]
That's right. It's the goal of the ground war, too. All focus is on eliminating Iran's influence.

[Anchor]
It is for the new order in the Middle East, but anyway, there is quite a lot of civilian damage in the process, and this operation seems to have been quite large to be called a targeted airstrike.

[Park Hyun Do]
It's quite big. Because isn't it said that the bomb dropped when removing Hasan Nasrallah was 80 tons? Likewise, this bomb also used a bunker buster. Although it is said that the target was accurately removed by targeting buildings in civilian areas, the damage to civilians around it is inevitable. The damage in 2006 and 1982 was quite significant. More Lebanese civilians have died in a much shorter period of time than in the 2006 attacks. It's a pretty serious situation.

[Anchor]
Prime Minister Israel Netanyahu said that the five weeks ahead of the U.S. presidential election is a golden time. If so, this current ground war will also be prolonged, should we look at it like this?

[Park Hyun Do]
The front line in Lebanon is likely to continue until it completely pushes Hezbollah out. Actually, it's a holiday in Israel right now. The New Year began on October 2nd and is a very important holiday until October 11th, and it means the same thing as Chuseok or Lunar New Year, and we are attacking it now. In Lebanon, there is a requirement that Hezbollah wants. Israel. Hezbollah should create at least a seven-kilometer demilitarization zone on the Lebanese border. If you look at us, it's the Demilitarized Zone. Only by making it will 60,000 people north of Israel who left the village be able to resettle, and if it doesn't, the Israeli attack won't stop.

[Anchor]
In some ways, Israel's intelligence and attack power are considerable when targeting Sapieni this time, using the same method as Hasan Nasrallah?

[Park Hyun Do]
Hezbollah wasn't such a weak organization. It was a very strong and quiet organization, but since 2011, it has grown in size as it participated in the Syrian civil war. And as Lebanon's economic situation deteriorates, the members seem to have fallen into the temptation of money. And Israeli information began to seep in among the sprawling organizations. Israel has completely taken control of all communications in Hezbollah. So, for now, it's quite difficult for Hezbollah to communicate with each other, and we have no choice but to do it in this way but in the past, in other words, through wireless or something like that.

[Anchor]
The recent Pippi terror attack may have an impact, right?

[Park Hyun Do]
That's right. I went with a beep saying that it's safer because it controls wireless communication. It's very embarrassing for Hezbollah right now because even that pipette was completely taken over by Israel and detonated as a bomb.

[Anchor]
If so, is there a possibility that the ground war will develop in a different atmosphere from the past?

[Park Hyun Do]
However, it seems that ground warfare is not easy. If you listen to the stories of former generals who had experienced war as well as in the 2006 war, face-to-face face-to-face with Hezbollah is dangerous. They say it's still dangerous and that the Israeli military could lose a lot of lives and that they should refrain. In fact, there are casualties right now. Therefore, it is evaluated that Israel can be overwhelmed by air strikes, but it will not be as easy as expected in a ground war. In 2006 alone, 121 Israeli soldiers died. However, there is a high possibility that it will be a similar situation this time.

[Anchor]
There was also an analysis that spies were planted everywhere.

[Park Hyun Do]
Israel's intelligence is incredible. Also, spies are not simply Israeli or anything. There are spies in Hezbollah who thought they were Hezbollah people, and in Iran, there are spies in Iran who are Iranian people, and now countries, Iran, and Hezbollah are having difficulty finding these things.

[Anchor]
If you look at the timeline you mentioned, the U.S. presidential election could be an opportunity to change the situation anyway, so can Israel achieve its goal in five weeks when the ground war takes place?

[Park Hyun Do]
That's impossible to know. But I don't think the ground war against Hezbollah will be easy. Israel's terms of a ceasefire. When we talked about a ceasefire with Hasan Nasrallah, the biggest conditions were the establishment of a 7km military demilitarization, demilitarization, and then the United Nations resolution during the war in 2006. If you look at 1701, the United Nations resolved to dismantle Hezbollah and armed groups in Lebanon and make it completely under Lebanese control. But they tell me to keep that resolution. Hezbollah is not willing to protect it. You can't keep it. That means we have to dismantle Hezbollah itself. So to what extent Israel will choose from the requirements and enforce them. However, I think a ceasefire is difficult if Israel demands a situation in which Hezbollah is dismantled.

[Anchor]
We are taking a closer look at Israel's Hezbollah airstrike, and it would be nice to show the map I showed you earlier. It's this map. It's called the axis of resistance. In fact, Israel is fighting everywhere, and there's a saying that it's a 1:7 war. Recently, they are analyzing that they are literally conducting multi-faceted wars everywhere, but recently they also carried out airstrikes in the West Bank and Gaan District, right?

[Park Hyun Do]
[Voiceover] That's right. Now this map is what Israel thinks is a map of Iranian influence. So first of all, Iran is in the Arab region even if it doesn't attack, so Iran is not an Arabic-speaking person. So if even an anti-Israel group in the Arab region can quiet down everything Iran is sponsoring, Israel's goal has been achieved. But we're heading towards that, and in fact, it's not easy to neutralize Hezbollah, but it's not easy for Israel to handle all five organizations except Iran. So the U.S. is also helping the Houthi rebels attack military areas.Can Ma get rid of all six of these? I am pessimistic.

[Anchor]
If we divide it up a little bit, can we say that the goal at the time of the airstrikes in the West Bank and Gaza was to remove the Hamas leadership?

[Park Hyun Do]
[Voiceover] Right, Hamas, but Gaza has Hamas, and the West Bank has a new group called Islamic Jihad. I mean, I'm going to take control of all of these groups, but the fact is, more important than fighting all these different wars, it's the quickest thing to do is to make a ceasefire and solve the Palestinian problem. If the Palestinian problem is not solved, it will be repeated in the same language. I said that in Oman, too. The same goes for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Oman. What is the heart of the Middle East problem? If we solve the Palestinian problem, everything will be quiet, but if we attack only those who dream of Palestinian independence or liberation without offering a solution to the most important Palestinian problem, will this disappear? This has no choice but to continue.
I agree with that.

[Anchor]
Is there a solution?

[Park Hyun Do]
So Israel at least has to negotiate with Arab countries with the will to resolve the Palestinians. But I'm not going through that step. Saudi Arabia also said it was willing to join hands with Israel. But if we want to hold hands, we're going to solve the Palestinian problem. So I'm not asking you to solve it, I'm making it clear that we should solve it together, but Israel is closing its eyes on that.

[Anchor]
I think we need to look at Iran's movement a little bit. In the meantime, it has been called a shadow war a lot, but how can we see the meaning that Iran's supreme leader Khamenei has been in public for the first time in five years?

[Park Hyun Do]
There were reports that Khamenei had recently been assassinated in Nasrallah and moved to avoid the assassination. I think it has shown a strong will to fight against Israel forever, dismissing such reports. So, appearing in a public place means that he risked an assassination. I think it's a show of confidence.

[Anchor]
However, some say that there were disagreements within Iran's highest level. How is the situation inside Iran now?

[Park Hyun Do]
Iran's supreme leader has a number of problems, the biggest economic problem. So Iran's new president, Fezeshikyan, wants to lift economic sanctions through flexible diplomatic relations with the West in order to lift economic sanctions. Of course, if you have this idea, you don't want a fight with Israel. There have been such differences, but at least the story of Iran's attack on Israel this time is that this is a national decision and it was decided by the National High Security Council, and all government ministers, including the president, agreed.

[Anchor]
In the meantime, Iran's foreign minister has made an unannounced visit to Lebanon. Do you intend to inform the international community that, after all, we have no intention of escalation and that the height is on the Israeli side?

[Park Hyun Do]
That's right. He's a very good diplomat. He's a very good diplomat. He is a diplomat who had a very close relationship with us. It continues to show that Iran does not want to escalate. That's why I'm going to solve it through diplomacy. A willingness to fight back if Israel still attacks Iran. However, the main point is not to expand. We have to wrap it up here. It's right here.

[Anchor]
If this analysis is made that the key to escalation is in Israel, the role of the U.S. will be important, but as you said, the U.S. is about to hold a presidential election, so isn't it a situation where we can't do this or that?

[Park Hyun Do]
That's right. Pro-Israeli votes fall when you block Israel, anti-Israel votes fall when you don't? Now, the Biden administration, especially the Biden administration, which is trying to help Harris win the election, is just hoping that something doesn't happen. That's why he's being dragged around by Prime Minister Netanyahu's move. Even a famous American professor named Jebri Sachs said that the U.S. Middle East commander yesterday is Netanyahu. That's how much the U.S. is being dragged along as Prime Minister Netanyahu moves. Still, what the U.S. wants to prevent now is its heart. We have to prevent a war, but we don't know what kind of card Israel will offer. Hassan Nasrallah's assassination was also something the United States didn't want. Last October, Israel thought of assassinating Hasan Nasrallah, but the U.S. stopped him from doing it. But this time, the assassination was done without informing the United States, and we don't know how this situation will unfold against Iran, so the United States is in a pretty embarrassing situation right now.

[Anchor]
Didn't you actually lose control?

[Park Hyun Do]
It's a loss of control. The thing that can stop you the most is you don't have to give me a weapon. For example, the bunker buster used to remove Hasan Nasrallah is also a weapon given by the United States. It's a U.S. armory. So the U.S. is able to effectively control it, but it's slowing down because of the special presidential election right now.

[Anchor]
You're saying that you're taking full advantage of such a situation, so will the so-called US passing controversy disappear after the presidential election?

[Park Hyun Do]
Even after the presidential election, the U.S. pro-Israel policy will continue, but if a new president is elected, there is a possibility that he will speak out because he does not have to be dragged around like the current election.

[Anchor]
Find an alternative other than President Biden's oil field airstrikes. I've told you this article now, but this also has to do with the presidential election, right?

[Park Hyun Do]
That's right. Because the reason why we suddenly talked about oilfield attacks is because Iran launched airstrikes on Israel. However, attacking two military bases and a Mossad base was not a big problem. However, there is an Israeli gas field on the beach in the Ashfellon area, and it appears that it has attacked the gas field. Because Israel can't stand it.

[Anchor]
It hasn't been officially reported, has it?

[Park Hyun Do]
It has not been officially reported. However, as videos taken vividly on Twitter or something like that are posted, there are rumors that the Israeli side is controlling the report. So it's not 100% certain. But Israel can't stand it, if it does. So there were talks about attacking oil fields and attacking oil facilities. In order to prevent Iran from actually attacking, Israel threatened to attack Iran through the United States and Arab countries and told them not to attack oil or nuclear facilities if they attacked us, but Iran ignored it and attacked it.
So Israel also has to respond one-on-one. When it comes to 1:1 response, it's not a problem to respond to military bases, but you have to attack oil bases or nuclear facilities. Nuclear facilities are too burdensome, and the United States. But the same goes for oil facilities. Can't oil facilities have storage and oil production facilities? But I think you're talking about storage facilities right now, but even if it's a storage facility, if you air raid it, the world's oil prices will have no choice but to move. Then, of course, oil prices in the United States are bound to rise and can have a huge impact on the election, right? So I don't want that as the United States. So I said I'd discuss it with Israel, I'd consider it, but it's not the answer from the United States. So there is America's concern.

[Anchor]
Then, is there any possibility of Israel passing and retaliating against the United States in such a situation?

[Park Hyun Do]
If the characteristics of Israel are in our interests regardless of the US's perception, we will do it first and inform the United States later. That's why I can't guarantee this.

[Anchor]
Possible attack on oil or nuclear facilities.

[Park Hyun Do]
Nuclear facilities cannot be difficult, but oil facilities are possible. The reason why there is talk of nuclear facilities seems to be because there is a part of the Israeli side that Iran thought was targeting nuclear facilities in the recent missile launch.

[Anchor]
Thank you. That's all for today's news. Park Hyun-do was also a professor at Sogang University's Euromena Research Institute. Thank you for talking with me today.