Kim Jong-un "talking about military power in front of a nuclear power..."It's not intact".

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor
■ Starring: Lee Ho-ryeong, Director of the Security Strategy Center of the Korea Institute for Defense Development

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN24] when quoting.

[Anchor]
This is a Korean Peninsula review time to analyze North Korean issues and diplomatic security news on the Korean Peninsula in depth. Today, Lee Ho-ryeong, head of the Security Strategy Center at the Korea Institute of Defense, is here. Welcome. Chairman Kim Jong-un criticized President Yoon Suk Yeol for being an imperfect person, but he said it's been two years since he mentioned his real name like this.


After I gave a speech on July 27, 2022. At that time, I only mentioned my name, but this time, I expressed it like this. If you look at why North Korea expressed this, didn't the president show a very strong will at the Armed Forces Day event? When we say deterrence works, our strong deterrence against North Korea's threats works, there are two aspects: one is the ability and the other is the strong will of the leader and the policymaker. The combination of these two was shown at the Armed Forces Day event. So, Hyunmoo-5 and the ROK-US combined strategic assets were developed together, right? Since B-1B appeared and the president strongly mentioned in his commemorative speech that the regime would be the end if North Korea attacked it with nuclear weapons, it was shown at the Armed Forces Day event that everything of ability and will was combined, so I think that was said as a reaction to it.

[Anchor]
To borrow North Korea's expression as it is, it was expressed as a Yoon Suk Yeol puppet. Is this expression a puppet usually used well?


North Korea has always used that expression a lot. So, we use the expression "monster" for objects that we don't want to admit.

[Anchor]
He criticized it intensely, mentioning his real name, and even Kim Yo-jong criticized the Armed Forces Day anniversary speech, but he used this expression, "It's embarrassing in front of a nuclear power."


North Korea wants to continue to be recognized as a nuclear state or a nuclear state externally through the advancement of its nuclear and missile capabilities. That's why I kept emphasizing that part in that context, and in the end, no matter how much North Korea claims to be a nuclear power, the international community does not recognize it. And the more North Korea claims such a nuclear power, the more it ends up with who will bear the cost? The burden is being passed on to the North Koreans. So, in the past, the test-firing related to nuclear weapons and missiles was shown to unite people, but now North Koreans are struggling and struggling financially, but how it affects their lives is actually causing a backlash. So, it was widely reported in the Rodong Sinmun before, but these days, it is only published in articles from the outside through the Korean Central News Agency, and the Rodong Sinmun does not report that much.

[Anchor]
According to Kim Yo-jong's statement, Eo-jung criticized the South by using all kinds of expressions such as "float," "miscellaneous play," and "clown play." In the past, when Kim Yo-jong made such a statement, provocations continued, so I was worried about whether it would happen again this time.


If you look at the years in which North Korea has continued to escalate its existing provocations and words, it's mainly 2009 and 2010. And in 2015, there was a wooden-box landmine. And we can think of 2020 when there was a bombing of the liaison office between the two Koreas, and there is a common characteristic. The characteristics are that in 2009 and 2010, when Kim Jong-un's succession was structured, there was a substantial local provocation as the level of speech increased, and then in the Kim Jong-un era, wooden ship mines and explosions in 2015 and 2020 are different from before. In the case of wooden-box landmines, the water level has been raised since then, but in the end, it was North Korea that offered dialogue first and apologized. It was North Korea that immediately escalated the crisis, and then it just blew itself up in the Kaesong area. As Kim Yo-jong blew up the liaison office we supported, it can be said that he continued to raise the level of his words.

[Anchor]
Looking at the remarks of Chairman Kim Jong-un and Vice Minister Kim Yo-jong this time, he emphasized the expression of a nuclear power as if the siblings were talking together. There seems to be an analysis that this part means that we will not deal with the South that does not have nuclear weapons. What implications do you think it has?


First of all, as I mentioned earlier, North Korea now has nuclear weapons, and we also have this ability. We also restarted plutonium, and right before that, didn't we show North Korea a uranium enrichment facility? In that way, they continue to talk about being a nuclear power, but the international community does not recognize North Korea as a nuclear power. It's just that they're evaluating only to the extent that they're threatening with nuclear weapons. That means you have to come to denuclearization negotiations at any time, and you don't recognize it as a nuclear state. Because in many contexts, in the case of North Korea, a country that joined the NPT has left the NPT and developed nuclear weapons, posing a nuclear threat to neighboring countries, especially to Japan, which is a different pattern from the existing five nuclear powers. In that sense, it is never recognized as a nuclear state.

[Anchor]
Another interesting part this time was that Vice Minister Kim Yo-jung sarcastically said in her discourse that Hyunmoo-5 was only large. Does this mean Hyunmoo-5 is bothered the other way around or is it really a dismissive remark?


North Korea must have been very afraid. Because North Korea is related to ICBM, didn't Hyunmoo-5 come out on the 9-axis TEL this time? North Korea carried what it boasted about as an ICBM on its 9-axis TEL. In the end, North Korea is well aware of the weight and length of the warhead of the missile on the 9-axis TEL, so we emphasize that in a way, the destructive power of Hyunmoo-5 is actually a weapon that will eventually be used when Kim Jong-un uses nuclear weapons, so there is a great fear of that.

[Anchor]
Anyway, I think it can be seen that North Korea reacted quite sensitively to the Armed Forces Day commemorations and ceremonies. The day after tomorrow, the Supreme People's Assembly, will be held, and the Supreme People's Assembly is drawing attention this time will stipulate the two hostile state theories that Chairman Kim Jong-un is emphasizing. How does it change?


Since he said he would revise the constitution, the Supreme People's Assembly is like the Korean National Assembly, so he will revise the constitution, but there will be a problem with the border in the revision. Then, if we talk about the border issue, North Korea will delete the basic inter-Korean agreement or the part where we maintain the border that was previously signed in the armistice agreement and has been observed so far. It means that it is highly likely to be deleted. But the problem is, what does this border mean when North Korea says it will demarcate the border? Isn't the current inter-Korean relationship divided under the armistice system based on the armistice agreement and the 53rd anniversary of the end of the Korean War? North Korea's declaration of a border in this state of division is recognized by the mutual border when the armistice is converted into a peace treaty. But when North Korea says it's building a border by itself through the Supreme People's Assembly or referring to it as a border, it's just a one-sided declaration.

[Anchor]
But what is the reason why Chairman Kim Jong-un wants to stipulate this?


In the end, if North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has previously achieved the maintenance of his system through the nuclear-economic parallel policy of maximizing external threats, centering on nuclear and missile, and solidifying internal systems, as I mentioned earlier, nuclear is causing more economic pain to North Koreans. On the contrary, it is developing in this direction of weakening the Kim Jong-un regime, and the next breakthrough is the border related to unification, and it shows the characteristic of strengthening the durability of the system through changes in existing policies inside.

[Anchor]
Do you want to erase the word unification?


It's like that from Kim Jong-un's point of view. Since the end of last year, the Supreme People's Assembly has been working on removing unification from the two countries, and since then, it wants to emphasize that inter-Korean relations are not the current special relationship, but are separate countries, not based on the people.

[Anchor]
It's just another hostile country. Then, is there a possibility that North Korea's policy toward South Korea will change in the future based on its face-to-face constitution?


I think it'll probably enter another deadlock. In the end, unification is connected to the leadership of all parties in the Juche ideology, which Kim Il-sung has been doing. If Kim Jong-un removes the issue of unification now, it can be seen that the logic of legitimacy within North Korea, which has been held within the three-generation hereditary systems, will collapse. [Anchor] As you said, the move to erase unification is different from the stance of North Korea's stagnation that my father and grandfather have been pushing for, but there are many analyses on the background.Ma is a reflection of Kim Jong-un's anxiety about protecting the current system.


In the end, as I said earlier, there is a lack of confidence in the durability of the system, and isn't there a lot of very unstable factors in many places? In particular, the flood problem has not yet been fully restored. Even though North Pyongan Province, Jagang Province, and Yanggang Province are not being restored properly, and North Korea sent supplies and soldiers to the war against Ukraine, hasn't there been another death report today? Something like this. The internal problems facing North Korea on various issues are also very large.

[Anchor]
Finally, let's briefly talk about the South Korea-U.S. defense cost sharing. Unusually, the negotiations were concluded quickly this time, but the problem is 2026. The increase was 8.3% compared to the previous year, is this a reasonable increase? How do you see it?


It's 8.3% in 2026 alone. Then, before that, if we look at the defense cost-sharing agreement, this is the 12th agreement. So for five years, 2026 alone is now 8.3%, and for the remaining 27, 28, 30, we increased the annual growth rate to 4% compared to the increase in defense spending in the 11th round, but this time, we used the price index in the 8th and 9th rounds. Then, in the future, when it comes to the price index, it will be a 2% increase. Then 27, 28, 29, 30 years go by 2%, so it's a very reasonable way of negotiating compared to the previous one.

[Anchor]
Is there an impact on the U.S. presidential election that ended quickly without obstacles?


It can be said that the US presidential election is influenced. But most of all, if we negotiate before that, in practice, shouldn't we ratify it again? It's all behind the original plan. So, we applied them all retroactively, and among the amount of money that goes into defense cost negotiations, there is labor cost. Labor costs are Koreans hired by the U.S. Forces Korea. There was also the issue of salary payments to these people and all of these things being delayed. However, it can be said that such an agreement has been reached in advance and has been prepared to proceed smoothly from 2026.

[Anchor]
They say negotiations have been made, but I'm also worried because the U.S. presidential election is just around the corner. You don't know who it will be now, but in the case of former President Trump, pay a lot for defense. You're the one who keeps insisting why you don't pay reasonable money. Can former President Trump be nullified if he is elected?


First of all, we have to reach an agreement between the two parties. If you want to make a revision there, there must be an agreement on the revision, so I think it's a little difficult to unilaterally dispose of it and do it again. Relatively, we get parliamentary ratification, but the United States is an executive order. Since it is a presidential executive order, it can be revised if Trump becomes Trump.

[Anchor]
It's easier to change it, right?


That's right. Nevertheless, even if we revise it through written agreements, we need to have such consent. If the alliance combines the spirit of the Korea-U.S. alliance and the defense posture of the U.S. Forces Korea, I can tell you that there are various limited circumstances for such an easy revision.

[Anchor]
Because former President Trump is unpredictable. Anyway, it will be a variable depending on the results of the U.S. presidential election. Lee Ho-ryeong was the director of the Security Strategy Center of the Korea Institute of Defense. Thank you.