"Put GPS on a North Korean trash balloon"...What's the possibility of weaponization?

■ Host: anchor Yoon Bori and anchor Na Kyung-chul
■ Starring: Kim Yong-hyun, professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN Newswide] when quoting.

[Anchor]
The South Korean military has confirmed that some of the North Korean garbage balloons are equipped with a location information system and GPS devices. If North Korea designates the timing and location of the detonation, there is a concern about the weaponization of balloons. Let's look at the contents related to Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University. Please come in. GPS has been confirmed in trash balloons sent by North Korea toward us. What is it for?

[Kim Yonghyun]
GPS doesn't depend on every balloon. Some of them are balloons. In the meantime, North Korea has sent down balloons about 25 times and 25 times since May, but I think there are about 6,000 balloons in total. A very small portion of them have GPS, and it has to be viewed from two aspects. One is that North Korea is collecting data, you might say. In other words, balloons that are usually sent down from North Korea can vary depending on the season. So, the season is when the wind blows from North Korea to the south.

So, I'm coming down intensively now, and by attaching GPS, North Korea can drop balloons in certain areas at certain times, showing this. So I keep collecting those data and am accumulating them. I think you can see it like this. Another thing is that putting GPS on it shows North Korea's ability to precisely spread it to certain areas. So balloons are actually not easy to suppress in advance. So whether it's a specific facility in Yongsan or a specific military facility in our country, it can be possible if we set our mind to it. Like this, I think North Korea is looking at it now, but in that sense, it's wearing GPS, you have to look at it like this. However, balloons vary depending on the wind direction. So even if you select a specific point accurately and put GPS on it, dropping it in that area is not that easy.

[Anchor]
So, as you just said, if you can use GPS to detonate it at the intended time at a specific intended point, then North Korea deliberately weaponized the balloon itself, can you see it like this?

[Kim Yonghyun]
It's going to be weaponization. Because balloons are the most primitive method, but it's becoming the most suitable method for modern warfare. So, there's a psychological aspect, and if there's even a little bit of anthrax on the balloon's contents, wouldn't the psychological fear of our people be very great? You could say that North Korea is aiming for these things, or acting like they're implying them.

Because isn't there some paper crumbs in there right now? But it can be very different depending on what you put on the bottom of the balloon and put it down. The possibility of weaponization is also open because it can be seen as a process of accumulation that shows how much such problems can be done as intended by North Korea.

[Anchor]
However, it is now known that the economic situation in North Korea is very outrageous. It's known that it's about 100,000 won to make one balloon. Then, should we continue to send it to us because we spent about 600 million won roughly?

[Kim Yonghyun]
So if it's that much, it's not that big in terms of cost by our standards. North Korea will judge that the effect it brings is very high in terms of psychological or multi-dimensional South Korea and North Korea. However, based on the price of rice consumed in North Korea, about 1,000 tons of balloons are being sent down by North Korea, and if that happens, the cost is low in North Korea.

So, you might think that it's a burden on the economy for North Korea to keep sending it down. However, compared to North Korea's other weapons or other financial resources, the psychological effect of the balloon's sending down is quite significant. Therefore, it is highly likely that North Korea will continue to send the balloon down in the season in the future.

[Anchor]
So, our military has not responded to the balloon's sending so far, but now that we have confirmed that GPS exists and some balloons have GPS, do you think our military's response level will be different?

[Kim Yonghyun]
But it's not that easy for us to make the response special. If this is an aerial weapon or a flying object like that flying in from the air, it may be possible to intercept it. It may be possible to shoot a laser, but balloons pass through the laser. So it's not easy to actually drop a balloon. In addition, we may drop balloons through anti-aircraft guns, but the safety of our residents in the border area may also be a problem. This is because we shot an anti-aircraft gun in a specific area, and the landing point in that area could be the area where the residents of our border area live. Doesn't that make the problem very complicated? So, in fact, it is not that easy to actively respond to North Korea's sending of balloons down now.

So it's not easy for us to go over the border after that. Some counties are now talking about hitting the origin, but in fact, that's not that simple. This is because origin strikes are our strikes in certain areas of North Korea. This is a situation that can go beyond small-scale battles and even turn into war. So it's not that simple, you can see it like this.

[Anchor]
Under these circumstances, North Korea is outraged by the fact that South Korean drones have penetrated over Pyongyang. However, I think the Ministry of National Defense's remarks on this have changed slightly. At first, I said there was no such thing, but now I can't confirm it recently, it's changed like this. How do you see it?

[Kim Yonghyun]
This issue is a very subtle one and seems to require a very careful approach. It seems that the North Korean side is pointing out whether it is our military or a specific civilian organization on our side. The final conclusion is that our defense authorities cannot confirm it. First of all, I think it's realistically right for us to accept what the defense authorities say, but anyway, North Korea is taking steps like this with drones as a justification for solidarity with the North Korean internal system or provocation against the South. So first of all, the important thing is that the exact contents of the facts need to be organized. I'm looking at it like this, but I think it will take time anyway.

[Anchor]
If North Korea's claim is true, who sent the drone? So was it a private organization or a military? I'm also curious about this. North Korea's Vice Minister Kim Yo-jong claims that the South Korean military is the main culprit or accomplice in the infiltration of drones, what do you think about this?

[Kim Yonghyun]
As I said, it is not easy to accurately judge this problem in the current situation. Usually, when you say that you can't confirm it in normal cases, you're talking about saying that it may or may not be because it's NCND. So I'm not talking about exactly any conclusions, which is probably a strategic ambiguity for the military authorities from our government's point of view. So, I will look at the overall flow, assuming that North Korea's own play or various situations. So I won't be drawn into North Korea's intention, I think this is the government's, our defense authorities' intention. So in reality, in the current situation, it seems a little undesirable to approach with a family. Anyway, it is a judgment that the final truth about the facts should come out.

[Anchor]
However, if we say that we flew drones and drones three times, as North Korea claims, in a way, we could see that North Korea was vulnerable to air defense response even though we knew that we had entered Pyongyang.

[Kim Yonghyun]
So this can be a number of problems, and it is known that the point where the drone was captured over a certain area in Pyongyang, North Korea, is close to Chairman Kim Jong-un's office. There are Labor Party buildings and major facilities in Pyongyang, and drones have been launched even in that area, right? In that sense, if North Korea is not responsible for it, this could be a very serious problem. Of course, it's a serious problem. Isn't that also the fact that North Korea has grasped it three times?

It's also late at night. This part can be a problem. What else is North Korea talking about? North Korea is talking about a certain group from the south. What is it talking about there is that if you spent it from the south, you would have gone up at least six times, that is, three times and come down three times, if you look at it that way? We're saying that our defense authorities couldn't have known about it, but it's actually difficult to draw a final conclusion on this issue right now, I think we should look at it like this.

Anyway, we might put more weight on North Korea because it's a self-made play.In the current situation, there is a question of whether North Korea can conduct its own drama even though it knows that its air defense network is breached. So at the moment, there are a lot of things to be organized, so we have no choice but to look at it like this.

[Anchor]
And in the case of North Korean leaflets, North Korea has not informed the residents of the North Korean leaflets sent from our side, but these days, they are doing a lot of propaganda. What do you think is the reason for the change in attitude toward North Korean leaflets?

[Kim Yonghyun]
So this time, North Korea has begun to disclose the drone-related part to the internal media, whether it is an internal labor newspaper. Before that, I didn't disclose it to the internal media at all. In that sense, North Korea seems to be focusing on the solidarity of North Koreans over the drone situation. The front page of the Rodong Sinmun already strongly criticizes South Korea, criticizes South Korea. It's on the screen right now.E. By saying that we need to show such anger, we are using it as a way to heighten the atmosphere of North Koreans, so to heighten the hard-line atmosphere against the South.

So, let's give Pyongyang citizens the two-state theory. If it came out like that from Pyongyang, there is a very high possibility that each province will now hold a condemnation contest similar to that in each province, seeking internal solidarity. So anyway, North Korea points to the current drone situation internally with solidarity. This is a clear arrangement, so we have to look at it like this.

[Anchor]
At the same time, Kim Yo-jung, the vice chairman of the Workers' Party, warned that if another Korean drone is found, it would be disastrous. Which card do you have in mind?

[Kim Yonghyun]
If you look up the meaning of the word "devastation" in the Korean dictionary, it is defined as a terrible and miserable disaster or accident that is unexpected. So, the North clearly intends to drive this to the South's responsibility. In the process, we are trying to blame our government for the current crisis on the Korean Peninsula. At the same time, it seems that we are now in a direction that strongly seeks internal solidarity.

Therefore, we need to check the drone situation accurately and first of all, we need to accept what the South Korean defense authorities are talking about. Nevertheless, North Korea is actively using this as an internal solidarity, promoting the legitimacy and necessity of the two national theories to North Koreans, and using it as a means of solidifying the system to North Koreans. I also believe that there is a high possibility of using this more in the future.

[Anchor]
For the legitimacy of the hostile two state theories you mentioned, North Korea revised the constitution not long ago, and we will delete the unification phrase we expected while revising the constitution. It is not known whether or not we have done this now. What do you think about the possibility of it being private?

[Kim Yonghyun]
I don't think the possibility of non-disclosure is that high at the moment. There must have been some pressure. If you look at the full text of the North Korean Constitution, most of the contents include praise for Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, especially on the issue of unification. It's also in the constitution. Listening to all of this may be misunderstood as something that could significantly downgrade or deny Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, so there is a burden on the residents to deliver it right away, I think we should look at it like this. Another aspect is that it is aimed at the U.S. presidential election.

So, depending on who becomes the presidential election, North Korea's policy toward the U.S. and foreign policy will change a lot. There is now a reservation of some conclusion about it. So, depending on who becomes the president of the United States, the U.S. policy toward North Korea may be flexible or tough, but they cannot respond to it in advance, so they seem to be postponing the constitutional issue in that sense. Rather, it is a judgment that this is how it goes when the two-state theory continues to be ignited through these things, whether it is a drone situation or not.

[Anchor]
As you said, the U.S. is about a month away from the presidential election, and in the midst of this, U.S. President Joe Biden asked our President Yoon to hold a Korea-U.S.-Japan summit within this year. Which one do you want to discuss?

[Kim Yonghyun]
So, it's very likely that this summit between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan will be a farewell ceremony for President Biden. Because wouldn't the new president of the United States start his office early next year? In that sense, the U.S. will be able to summarize President Biden's policy toward Northeast Asia and the development direction of the results of the last summit at Camp David through the Korea-U.S.-Japan summit. The other is the intensifying situation in the Middle East, the cooperation between South Korea and the U.S. and Japan over the war in Ukraine, discussions on this, and military tensions on the Korean Peninsula. It is true that psychologically, the people are getting more anxious. There's a possibility that we can have some discussions about these things that can stabilize them.

[Anchor]
If so, it is likely to be around the APEC meeting or the G20 meeting next month, right?

[Kim Yonghyun]
But I think it's whether you do it then or immediately after that. If you look at APEC now, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting is in Peru. And then the G20 meeting, where major leaders gather, will be held in Brazil. I think there is a possibility that the president may visit Peru and Brazil consecutively, but it is a chaotic meeting because so many multilateral talks are held then. So it may not be appropriate for the three leaders to meet calmly and talk. In that sense, there is a high possibility that the leaders of Korea and Japan will go to Washington and hold a summit with President Biden shortly after the U.S. presidential election and APEC and the G20. There are health problems for President Biden to come this way. In that sense, the summit in the United States is likely to be a meeting to calmly summarize the past four years of the Biden administration, re-examine the Korean Peninsula policy or overall cooperation between South Korea, the U.S. and Japan.

[Anchor]
However, President Biden did not mention North Korea in his speech at the U.N. General Assembly last month, unlike previous years. Is this part related to the promotion of the Korea-U.S. summit this time?

[Kim Yonghyun]
So, I think the number one priority for President Biden or any foreign policy in the United States is the current war in Ukraine and Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah. Since then, it is safe to say that the Korean Peninsula issue is very behind the ranking. Now that we are focusing on various foreign relations or global issues rather than North Korean issues, I don't think President Biden's comments on the North Korean issue are particularly easy to come out from that point of view. In any case, it should be considered that there is a high possibility that such a move to organize it more at the Korea-U.S.-Japan summit will be made.

[Anchor]
I'll stop listening to it. So far, I've talked with Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University. Thank you for talking today.