[NewsNow] "Pyongyang drone infiltrates" North Korea raising tensions...What about provocation?

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor
■ Starring: Kim Yeol-soo, Director of Security Strategy at the Korea Military Research Institute

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNOW] when quoting.

[Anchor]
North Korea, which insisted on infiltrating drones, was caught preparing to detonate on roads in the East Sea and Gyeongui Line this time. Let's talk with North Korea's rising tensions and Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Division at the Korea Military Research Institute. Welcome.

[Kim Yeolsoo]
Hello,

[Anchor]
I'm going to fortify it.In addition, North Korea's movement does not seem to be unusual. It is said that movements to blow up the Donghae and Gyeongui lines have been spotted, so why would they blow up?

[Kim Yeol-soo]
The east coast and Gyeongui line, and the fact that they actually pulled out the iron, the sleeper, and the exposed walls were all done last May. And all of a sudden on the 9th, the day after the Supreme People's Assembly. The North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs notified our UN agency that they would do the fortification work immediately. As part of that, the fortification work is in progress. You can see it like this, and then the East Sea Line and Gyeongui Line will be blown up. The road is also said like this. There are two things we should be interested in and look at. They blew up roads on the East Sea Line and Gyeongui Line, and they asked where it was. For example, the Gyeongui Line and the East Sea Line are also in the Demilitarized Zone. In fact, within the Demilitarized Zone, the part of North Korea with barbed wire is two kilometers north of the Military Demarcation Line and the part south of the Military Demarcation Line is two kilometers south of the Military Demarcation Line.

However, whether the point to be blown up this time in North Korea is the Military Demarcation Line point or the northern area of 2km, what this means can vary greatly. If we do it 2km north of the Military Demarcation Line in North Korea, there may not be a big problem, but if we blow it up in the Military Demarcation Line area, fortify it, build it here, and then this is a violation of the Armistice Agreement. So I think it's necessary to take a closer look at this problem.

[Anchor]
North Korea, which claims that the drone invaded, is now fully ready to fire. It's said that they ordered it to be equipped with this. What level of response is this?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
It's preparedness. I'm telling you to get ready, I'm telling you to get ready, I'm telling you to get ready, I'm giving you preliminary orders in the name of the General Staff, and that's what I'm telling you about eight artillery women. There will be about 10 artillery brigades in North Korea. Eight of them are in the front line area, so in a way, they actually instructed the entire artillery unit to hit the target point in case of emergency, as you can see. So what this means is that they're artillery, so each of the first units is assigned where they're going to hit their target. We have to wait and see if it will hit all of them or just one brigade out of 10,000, and there are conditions. If there is another such invasion of airspace, we have to see it because of these conditions, but if we look at the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island on November 23, 2010, we only did one place called Yeonpyeong Island. So it remains to be seen what to do this time, but I think it needs to be recognized as a serious situation anyway.

[Anchor]
Vice Minister Kim Yo-jung said, "A terrible disaster will happen the moment Korean drones are found again," and if you claim that it was sent from the South, you have to give evidence, but I don't think I can see anything clear.

[Kim Yeolsoo]
There are several drones that we sent down from North Korea to us. March 2014, April, 2017, 2022. So overall, North Korea sent drones down about 10 times in about 10 years. But every time, we recovered all the drones, found out how the departure and destination were in the drones, and released them. And we also released the photos of Cheong Wa Dae and the THAAD base. Now in North Korea, drones have appeared in North Korean airspace three times, but drones have appeared, but they have not been able to shoot it down. So I couldn't secure it. I have to secure it and present evidence, but I'm not doing that. So what this means is that you missed the drone in the end, so you can see it like this. So, if you clearly captured the drone, you can see what type it is and in which countries or by which private organizations it is mainly used. You don't know that at all, you can see it like this, but you're using a flock right now.

[Anchor]
Can you show me the graphic? Considering the drone's shape and the distance it flew, it's unlikely that it's an individual drone, right?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
That's right. There's a possibility these days, but if you look at that, it looks like a ray. It's in the form of a stingray, and it's similar to the Sky09 model. That's originally made in China. That's similar to the drone that fell in Baengnyeong Island and Paju area in 2014. That's why drones are so advanced these days, but when we do drones, we usually think of propeller-type drones. But that's not that, it's a fixed profit. In that state, there are drone clubs in many private organizations, but they are not the kind of drones used mainly by those clubs. That's why I used that drone in particular, but whether it was used in North Korea or not by our private organization needs a little more analysis, let's look at it like this.

[Anchor]
But I'm curious about another thing: If a drone flies like that, did North Korea's air defense system just break through?
How do I watch it?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
What I don't understand is that North Korea's air defense network is the most closely arranged Pyongyang's air defense network in the world, and it's probably been broadcasted several times through our video. So it's not an air defense system against some kind of missile, it's mainly an anti-aircraft gun, that kind of air defense system. Then there are all the radars to shoot it. But if you look at the picture released this time, you revealed the picture. But even though there were a lot of anti-aircraft guns, they couldn't intercept even one of them. So what does this mean? The radar is not working completely, or even if you know it, you can only explain it like that when you shoot, but it doesn't work. And what's more suspicious is that if it's a self-made drama, there's no reason to shoot down that drone. Then we all know that this is a North Korean-made drone. One more thing I want to say is that we unveiled all the drones that Korea has on October 1st this time. So when I revealed all of them, I actually showed them all of the drones when the city was marching. It's not like that at all.

[Anchor]
The possibility of manipulation is low. You're looking at it like this, right?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
That's right. It's not a drone that our military has. Also, it's not from our military, I personally think so.

[Anchor]
Then, what do you think of our military's position? First of all, it is called strategic ambiguity, but there are also suspicions that the military's announcement is not clear about the difference from the initial position.

[Kim Yeolsoo]
I think the first is the Minister of Defense, and I'll check that at first. This means that I can't imagine sending drones from the military to North Korea without the permission of the Minister of Defense. So, the defense minister himself was never briefed, so of course, he had no choice but to answer that. But the answer changed a little after the staff meeting. So I answered with strategic ambiguity, and this is the key point of the word. Just because North Korea demands it, there is no need to listen to it one by one. Let's give an example. When we went to Paju, Baengnyeong Island, and the THAAD base in March and April 2014, we told North Korea that you guys did it. But what did North Korea say? We denied that we didn't do it. And then there was no talk about Katabuta. As such, even in this case, if you say that we did or did not do what North Korea demanded, you will be drawn into North Korea's strategic tactics, and it may lead to inter-Korean conflict within South Korea.

[Anchor]
I had no choice but to say that there was no such fact because I had never sent it, rather than avoiding any answer, so this is how you see it?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
So I personally think that the minister was in that position. However, I personally think that I did a very good job of answering with strategic ambiguity.

[Anchor]
Park Ji-won, former head of the National Intelligence Service, interpreted the position of our Ministry of National Defense as this. Let's hear your opinion. It's a personal interpretation of whether the government actually admitted it when it responded well as a result. How did you see it?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
First of all, I highly appreciate Rep. Park Ji-won's remarks that the government did a good job of doing this with strategic ambiguity. Nevertheless, among what you have just said, doesn't it mean that the government admits it in the end? I'll refute some of this. Kim Yo Jong has made three consecutive statements, and I will read only three of Kim Yo Jong's statements on the 12th.

First of all, this is a problem if the South Korean military has not even identified drones sent by private organizations to cross the border. So Kim Yo-jong herself said, "This is not a military, but a private organization can send it." Second, doesn't it mean that there is no problem if North Korean private organizations spray drones over the presidential office of the Republic of Korea? What does this mean? In the end, since private organizations continue to talk like they are talking in Korea, they think that they are talking about it as if there is a private organization. So he's proving himself that he doesn't care who or who is responsible for the drone provocation, which means that it's not what the South Korean military sent after all. So, lawmaker Park Ji-won praised the government very much, and I would like you to think about this as well.

[Anchor]
North Korea is jumping because of the drone, and people are saying, "Isn't this a red card?" It makes no sense to say something to us when you're sending trash balloons like that. In other words, there are aspects that have become insensitive because trash balloons have been sent like a daily routine, but the part that needs to be re-examined this time is that they have GPS. Then, what's different from the previous one?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
GPS is a satellite positioning system. That's why if I want to go somewhere, the car automatically goes where, where, and where, when I press somewhere in our vehicle.

[Anchor]
That's why you input your destination and send it.

[Kim Yeolsoo]
That's why GPS is called GPS. If you attach a GPS to a balloon here, it goes to that location. Now, the most affected thing is this balloon. You don't have it your way. We follow the road on the road, go right and left, and go to the destination, but a balloon is affected by the wind, and that wind can create a stone wind, so would that be right? Nevertheless, it has a GPS and a timer. That's why North Korea continues to see this.It's kind of upgraded because when you get to that point, you can set up a timer and show that you can let your own trash fall to the point you want, or you can let other materials fall to the point you want, so you can see it like this.

[Anchor]
You don't know how it will be upgraded further, and the important thing is the possibility that it might contain something other than trash. How do you see that?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
If you look at it broadly, it can be seen as a bomb and a chemical and biological material. You can put a bomb on it. And you can put chemicals, biochemicals, and radioactive substances. If those things fall into a certain target area and threaten the lives and safety of our people, this is crossing the line. That's why our Joint Chiefs of Staff already announced last week that if North Korea's provocation of sending such balloons crosses the line, the South Korean military will take military action. That's why we know the origin of the provocation, the supporting forces, and the commanding forces. I also know where to support them. That's why North Korea probably knows this because he said he would never overlook it. And GPS doesn't mean much. What's the difference if you send a bomb like that or send a chemical or biological material like that or you just shoot it in a gun and send it? Isn't that a provocation if you send it by balloon? That's a provocation, too. So when those things happen, the military will probably take immediate action, I see it like this.

[Anchor]
You're saying that the point where you send it is now understood.

[Kim Yeolsoo]
I know the point of support.

[Anchor]
Lastly, since it was found in residential areas and flown up, there is talk that fear is inevitable, so how about shooting down the border area?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
It's the difference between whether we shoot it down or not, but we haven't done it so far. It's not that I can't shoot it down. I can do it, but Korea is a liberal democracy. We have to follow the law and follow the Armistice Agreement, but if a balloon flies from the border area, for example, it shoots through our non-combatant, so-called stray bullets are formed. That stray bullet can cross over to the so-called north. Then the problem of violating the armistice agreement will arise again. And it's the difference in how much it rises. In the case of that arc, the effective range is 3km. But if it's supported at more than 3km, it's no use shooting. So I keep looking at it with interest, but if North Korea sends it with such a stimulus that crosses the line, military measures will follow here.

[Anchor]
Depending on what's in the balloon, it can be a high-intensity provocation, not a low-intensity one, so you should be alert. Kim Yeol-soo was the head of the Security Strategy Office at the Korea Military Research Institute. Thank you.