[News UP] Government "North Korea-Russia military cooperation, phased response"...What is the expected scenario?

■ Host: Anchor Yoon Jae-hee
■ Starring: Kim Yeol-soo, Director of Security Strategy at the Korea Institute for Military Studies

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN News UP] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Let's take a closer look at issues related to North Korea. I will be with Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Division of the Korea Military Research Institute. Please come in.

[Kim Yeolsoo]
Hello,

[Anchor]
We've already told you.Ma held an NSC standing committee meeting yesterday to discuss the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia. I think he clearly showed his will to respond strongly.

[Kim Yeolsoo]
The president called a meeting a few days ago after the National Intelligence Service announced the dispatch of North Korean troops. Yesterday, the head of the National Security Office held a standing committee meeting, and Kim Tae-hyo, the first head of the Security Office, presented the results of the meeting. There are two key points. The North Korean army must withdraw immediately. Second, if the collusion continues, we will respond strongly in solidarity with the international community. These two things can be seen as key.

[Anchor]
Deputy Director Kim Tae-hyo said that the response will be carried out in stages according to the progress of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Various scenarios are being discussed. Which scenario would be the best?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
A step-by-step response is something like this. How much North Korean troops will be sent? And what will be their mission and role if they are dispatched? It will depend on that. And how big will the guns and shells be? And on the contrary, what Russian military equipment will be transferred to North Korea. Or what Russia's cutting-edge technology will be and we will respond accordingly. There are three major measures. One is diplomatic action. The second is economic coordination, and the third is military action. Diplomatic measures are already in place.

So, maybe at the UN General Assembly, Korean Ambassador to the United Nations said something about this. And the Ministry of Foreign Affairs invites the Russian ambassador to Korea to strongly protest. The president also spoke directly to the NATO Secretary-General by phone. Also, economic measures will probably be related to economic sanctions. I will tell you more about the military measures in detail.

[Anchor]
It has been confirmed that it is also considering providing weapons of attack for killing in connection with military support. In this regard, there has been a part where domestic public opinion should also be cautious. What do you think?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
What kind of stance we have maintained so far is that we provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine. And support non-lethal weapons, that was the key. So I've been supporting Hwasaengbang detection equipment. Things have changed a bit now. Therefore, the spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense said, "It would be better not to distinguish between lethal and non-lethal weapons, but to classify them into offensive and defensive weapons." For example, defensive weapons end up killing people. So rather than that expression, it's divided into offensive weapons and defensive weapons, and if you go this way, it's going to be defensive weapons.

So, even though North Korea is sending this much as 12,000 or 15,000 troops, there will be a lot of pressure from the international community for South Korea to maintain the same things as it did in the past. In fact, Korea is also a Korea in the world. Korea also has an obligation to do it as a world-leading country. In that sense, depending on the degree of collusion with North Korea or Russia, as I said earlier, we need to increase our response intensity accordingly.

[Anchor]
If it's supported, there's a lot of mention of surface-to-air guided weapons. What would be considered for offensive weapons?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
As you just said, Heavenly Palace 2 will be the key to defensive weapons. It's an interception missile that shoots down incoming missiles. This is a defensive weapon. I think we can consider this first. We have a lot of offensive weapons. For example, K-9, K-2. K-9 self-propelled guns export a lot to foreign countries, and K-2 tanks are also world-famous tanks.

And the armored vehicles we have. And as you may have seen on Armed Forces Day, there is Hyunmoo-5 and even if it doesn't go this far, Hyunmoo-2 and Hyunmoo-4, which are surface-to-surface missiles, are also very high-performance missiles. These things also vary depending on the level of response, so there's a possibility that we can supply this as well, let's look at it like this.

[Anchor]
The government is also reportedly considering sending a monitoring team to Ukraine. You're analyzing North Korea's tactics, right?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
That's right. There's actually a small monitoring group in Israel right now. So if you look at what's going on between Israel and Hamas and Israel and Hezbollah, North Korean weapons are being used there. The type and characteristics of the weapon, or what lessons we need to learn from the war. There is a monitoring team to know these things. At this rate, I think Ukraine will soon have to send a monitoring team here.

If you look at it in a bigger way, it'll be about three parts. The first people to go will be intelligence. When the North Korean military comes here, they have to go with some troops and equipment and figure out what tactics they are doing, and if they try, intelligence agents should go. And the other thing is probably that interpreters should go. Because if North Korean soldiers are captured. You don't know much Korean about them. I need to support this. And thirdly, I think psychological agents are also needed. When the North Korean military participates in the front line, it is necessary to desert them, and it is also necessary to defect to Ukraine.

In the end, even if they are taken prisoner or defection, there is a problem of having to bring them back to Korea, so isn't it necessary to send a small monitoring group to officers and military personnel consisting of intelligence personnel, interpreters, and psychological warfare personnel? Let's look at it like this.

[Anchor]
The government is also actively making diplomatic moves. President Yoon mentioned joining NATO Vice to NATO Secretary-General, but could it put pressure between Russia and North Korea?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
What is Vice? NATO has 32 countries. So vices are a system that collects and utilizes battlefield information. That's why all countries collect battlefield information through the Internet and how to use it. So President Yoon also went to the NATO summit last year and expressed his hope that Korea would also join Vice. NATO is now reviewing this. But this time, I talked to Secretary-General Rutter on the phone again and talked about joining Vice.

I think you two sympathized with each other in a way. The security situation on the Korean Peninsula and the security situation in Europe are not separated and isolated from each other, but they are closely linked to each other, as seen in the North Korean military's dispatch to Russia this time. That's why we expressed our desire to join Vice and use it by joining the battlefield collection, information system, and utilization system. This could put pressure on Russia or North Korea, but there is little possibility that North Korea or Russia will change its current attitude just because we joined it.

[Anchor]
North Korea's first official position has also come out. The dispatch of troops to Russia is a groundless rumor, but evidence such as video and satellite images are coming out right now.Why is Ma not officially acknowledging this?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
Russia's ambassador to the United Nations and North Korea's ambassador, both said the same thing. That's why it's groundless, it's like a ghost story. It means that it's fake news. What I want to say is why the Russian side wants to keep this a secret so much. Also, we should talk about what's wrong with the North Korean side. The reason why the Russian side wants to keep this a secret is that if they openly say that they will be dispatched from North Korea, what will happen next?

Any country in Europe, any member of NATO or all of NATO is going to be able to say nothing even if they participate here. So in March this year, President Macron of France said that 2,000 French soldiers could be sent to Ukraine five times. As a result, President Putin took out tactical nuclear weapons and strongly protested, so he canceled it.

This problem still remains. That's why I can't say this publicly. This is Russia's position. Look at it from the perspective of North Korea. If we send this openly from the perspective of North Korea, what would happen if the UN Security Council had 11 resolutions on sanctions against North Korea and it was rumored to be a rogue state and a rogue state among thugs?

That's why I want to hide this. How does what you want to hide come true? That's why we're giving Russian supplies to North Korean soldiers, making them smaller in Korean, and pretending they're not North Korean soldiers.

[Anchor]
Deputy Minister Kim Yo-jong also poured out raw criticism through his discourse, but he also criticized not only Korea but also Ukraine.

[Kim Yeolsoo]
What they were trying to condemn was infiltrating drones over Pyongyang, no matter who they were talking about in South Korea. Then again, North Korean leaflets were sprayed on the North. Using this as an excuse, I made a discourse in a way. I said this out of the blue during the conversation. That's why we're talking about Korea or Ukraine, where we have nuclear weapons and they're talking fearlessly.

Why do you want to talk about that? It means there's a place where you get stabbed. That's why I'm saying this because the contents of our National Intelligence Service or President Zelenskyy's announcement have been stabbed without mentioning the dispatch of troops.

[Anchor]
Nevertheless, evidence continues to emerge. The authenticity of the photos of the North Korean flag fluttering in the battleground has not been confirmed.Ma made an appearance. A new satellite image came out. It is said that 10 buildings that appear to be large warehouses were built in the area where the dispatched soldiers stay, what do you think?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
It's possible that the flag flapping is fake news. The other thing is that there is a purpose of doing well on the Ukrainian side as if a lot of North Korean soldiers participated in the war, and that it could cause fear in the Ukrainian army, so I think first of all.

As you said, 10 large warehouses are excellent risk. The Usurisk is about 100km north of Vladivostok, and that is the beginning of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the beginning of the Trans-Manchu Railway.

It's an important place for that risk, so there's probably a Russian military unit there. As you just said, the completion of 10 new buildings, not far from the Russian military unit, has been confirmed by video, and you're asking what this is for.

So far, we've had about 13,000 containers from North Korea to Russia. There must have been guns, guns, and bullets. Then we have to ship it back to the train from here, so that's the power generation. If you try to do that, you have to keep it for a while. It was completed for storage, and there is a possibility that it will continue to be used for that purpose in the future.

[Anchor]
Even inside North Korea, the dispatch has not been disclosed to the residents. In this regard, the South Korean military is informed of this through a loudspeaker against North Korea, so what effect can we aim for?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
You look at it like this. Inside North Korea, we can't even talk about this. You can't publish it in the People's Daily. Because if you publish it in the People's Daily, it's the same as revealing it to the world. So I'm going to talk about a few things through the North Korean loudspeaker broadcast. We also talk about the fact that 18 deserters announced by the National Intelligence Service will be detained again after doing this.

And six North Korean officers died two weeks ago. I keep talking about things like this. Then, does it mean that North Korea has a flashlight by North Korean soldiers and North Koreans, and no matter how much control you control it, it will not be able to spread? Eventually, North Koreans will find out. If that happens, this could possibly lead to the agitation of North Koreans, and it could lead to distrust of the regime. Let's look at it like this.

[Anchor]
The news broke that the 18 people who defected from the group you mentioned were detained. There's also a story that they didn't get enough food. Should I say I'm not getting proper care for
?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
So first of all, I don't know exactly how many people went this way yet. However, according to reports from there, about 30 people are platoon-level. I went there, and some of them deserted. If 18 people defected, 18 out of 30 would be more than half. They went there, but they didn't give them food properly and there was no food, so they left the camp and were caught after going about 70km. I think that's why he was detained. Just thinking about it like this, how bad the environment must be.

So there's nothing to eat. There were 30 people, but not 30 people, but for example, the size of a huge unit, so-called Korean people have to eat. You have to eat kimchi. You have to eat soup. Even if they don't give me anything, they don't distribute the bread that Russians eat properly. So, since I haven't received food for a few days, in a way, I've deserted. I'm talking about a poor environment.

[Anchor]
There is a saying that it was a mission for the deserters to teach Russian soldiers how to use balloons for military purposes. What's this? How to use balloons for military purposes, what is this like?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
I don't think 30 people went to teach them how to use balloons. I'm sure the Russian soldiers asked because they went and performed their duties. You guys keep sending balloons to Korea like that, and I asked you how you sent them and what the purpose was. But in the worst case, if you put biochemical or radioactive substances in the balloon and make it explode on time, it will have a great effect. I would've said that. I don't think those personnel went for that purpose. On the contrary, the Russians have to talk about something. I don't think it's something that can be said. He said he would teach you how modern infantry fighting takes place. Looking at that, I don't think this is an issue that can have much meaning.

[Anchor]
In the midst of this, the BRICS summit is currently underway as the largest ever. Putin and Xi Jinping also met, but wouldn't there have been talks about sending North Korean troops?

[Kim Yeolsoo]
First of all, the issue of sending North Korean troops is not included in this agenda. Nevertheless, as the anchor said, I would like to tell you first that there is a possibility that it will come out sufficiently. In fact, the BRICS meeting will be held in Russia this time. It will be held in Kazan, Russia, and 36 countries will participate this time. And since there are six international organizations, there are 42 in total. Then out of those 42, there are a total of 22 countries that can be said to be the head of the country, and the countries they come to. Maybe in Russia, you can see it like this.

Perhaps President Putin couldn't have moved elsewhere. Last year, we had a BRICS meeting in South Africa, but President Putin couldn't go there at that time. It wasn't a situation where I could go. But this time, as many as 36 countries and six so-called heads of international organizations came, so it was very tight. But now, BRICS started with four or five countries when it first started, but now its membership has increased to ten. There are 30 countries that want to join this, and 15 of them will be selected and joined.

This is the BRICS where China and Russia, against the European Union and NATO and the G7, are being taxed as one of the anti-antibodies. That's why President Putin is asking who he is meeting this time. The president of Iran will be here, the head of the Palestinian Authority will be here, the president of Turkiye will be here, and Prime Minister Modi of India will be here. President Xi Jinping is coming. Then you'll have a summit with all of them. If the summit is held, I think there can be talks about North Korea's dispatch of troops to Russia, as you just said.

In this agenda, the Middle East issue is included in the agenda. But the Russia-Ukraine war is off the agenda. Nevertheless, this can be talked about through bilateral talks. On behalf of the entire last day, President Putin holds a press conference. Depending on how keenly you ask the question at the press conference, President Putin will probably answer. In that answer, I would never use the word North Korean troops.

[Anchor]
We should also watch Putin's press conference on the last day. I was with Kim Yeol-soo, head of the Security Strategy Division of the Korea Institute for Military Studies. Thank you for talking with me today.