[News Now] "40,000 Electronics" is rebounding...Where is Samsung Electronics' stock price?

■ Host: Kim Sun-young Anchor
■ Starring: Jeong Chul-jin, Economic Critic

* The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content, so please check the broadcast for more accurate information. Please specify [YTN NewsNOW] when quoting.

[Anchor]
Since the election of former President Trump, the domestic financial market has fluctuated, with the exchange rate rising to the 1,400 won range and the KOSPI's 2,500-point level collapsing. Let's analyze it with Jeong Cheol-jin, an economic critic. Welcome. The exchange rate was around 1,400 won, but I'm not thinking about going down.

[Jung Chuljin]
That's right. Although it is an offshore exchange rate, it has touched up to 1,410 won offshore during the day. What's more regrettable and worrisome is that the foreign exchange authorities, although they didn't jump in earnest, had oral intervention. Even though there was an oral intervention by Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok today, how strong is the current stance of the strong dollar considering that it should have been sent below 1,400 won in the past, but it hardly budged? The strong dollar also got very twisted when people said that interest rate cuts could be raised rather than trending in the future due to concerns about inflation from Onni America, which started with Trump, and so-called inflation from Trump. As a result, the strong dollar, the surge in market interest rates in the United States, and these are all coming out as a weak won.

[Anchor]
Is this the background of the judgment that it will not be easy to come down to the intervention of the foreign exchange authorities?

[Jung Chuljin]
With oral intervention, the market is no longer budging. It's like this in the past. Don't you make a lot of so-called bets? Then, oral intervention is about the forces who bet on the weak won, and we will be dispatched soon, so don't bet in this direction too hard. At this level, it should have worked normally, but the fact that it is not listening at all now means that most participants in the market will maintain the strong dollar for a long time. And I think it's hard to prevent the won from weakening unless the foreign exchange authorities come out with dollars directly.

[Anchor]
The strong dollar is bound to be a bad news for all parts of our economy, so which part will be hit the hardest?

[Jung Chuljin]
It can be seen as domestic demand. We need to look back on this once again, and today is the College Scholastic Ability Test, but when the won weakened in the past economic market, export price competitiveness will revive, and then automobiles, semiconductors, and cosmetics are also exported well these days. The food is good, too. You might think that it's helpful for exports, but if you look at it now, export stocks are much more out. The reason is that the strong dollar, or the won, weakened, but why did this situation come out? So, this is a bad weakening of the won, I think we can look at it like this.

[Anchor]
Do I have to rewrite the textbook?

[Jung Chuljin]
You have to add one more line from the textbook. We need to add another chapter, but why is the won so weak now? It came out a lot in the Trump 2.0 era, but it will go out very hard with retaliatory tariffs and tariff bombs. Then, no matter how competitive exports become due to the weakening of the won, the entire trade crushes and shrinks, so the current weakening of the won is not helpful for exports at all.

Second, where do you suffer the most? If the won weakens, we have to buy cost aspects, raw materials, to be honest. Then, of course, import prices will rise. If so, the domestic economy will inevitably stagnate further, and small business owners will have more difficulty, so the weak won and the strong dollar are the weak won that hits both exports and domestic demand.

[Anchor]
This can be a variable in determining interest rates, right?

[Jung Chuljin]
With an exchange rate of 1,400 won now, Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol can never lower interest rates. In particular, I talked about it during the last BOK Monetary Policy Committee.

[Anchor]
You said you'd look at the exchange rate.

[Jung Chuljin]
You said you'd look at the exchange rate. Originally, we had to look at both prices and the economy, but since the exchange rate is the most important indicator right now, the won-dollar exchange rate of 1400 won? You have to actually get off now. The domestic economy is very difficult, and the World Economic Research Institute and investment banks, including KDI, are lowering Korea's economic growth rate next year. If so, the monetary authorities will have to participate in the economic stimulus caused by the rate cut, but it will not be easy to get down if you look at the exchange rate alone.

[Anchor]
The U.S. interest rate has only raised it for a long time, and it's a situation where the exchange rate doesn't help, but the stock price is also in an emergency. I watched Samsung Electronics' stock price closely today, but it's going up a little today.

[Jung Chuljin]
Today is actually the expiration date of the November option. However, in the case of foreign short-term speculators, they have bet a lot on the downside and put options. Today is also the day when the results of the one-month option in November are found out, and Samsung Electronics' stock price is very important.

Because Samsung Electronics accounts for more than 25% of Korea's KOSPI, the market is likely to rise if Samsung Electronics rises. If Samsung Electronics plunges, the market is likely to fall. In the case of foreign short-term speculators, they dropped the market by dumping 12 million shares yesterday, 8 million shares the day before, 7 million shares before that, and made huge profits with their put options.

Looking at the supply and demand of Samsung Electronics today, it rose to the 1% range during the day, but are foreigners buying it? No. Foreigners are selling quite a lot today, and individuals have received this amount. But individual investors don't get high.

In other words, because they receive things from the bottom to the bottom, they cannot buy them while raising Samsung Electronics' stock price. Now, I think some institutional investors came in today that foreigners can raise Samsung Electronics' stock price even if they sell it like this. But these institutions that came in today don't seem to be the kind of forces that will go into the mid- to long-term. Since today is the expiration date of the option, institutions also come in today and raise Samsung Electronics' stock price to match their derivatives and futures options, so of course, the market has no choice but to be positive, right?

[Anchor]
That's why you hit the bottom, right?

[Jung Chuljin]
That's definitely not the case today.

[Anchor]
Then, it could reach the 1,400 won range. Can this prospect become a reality?

[Jung Chuljin]
It's 40,000 won. I can't guarantee that, but there are always two aspects. I keep telling you about supply and demand and materials, and foreigners have to buy supply and demand. In terms of materials, I think we really need some kind of kick to break the present, but I think we should also look at whether it goes to 40,000 won or not. Foreigners are selling it today, but the institution decided to accept it, so we saved Samsung Electronics from 50,000 won anyway. First of all, I have to go to the afternoon market.

But tomorrow, the November option expiration date will also end. Then foreigners sell it again. But if the institution doesn't accept it this time, there is a possibility that it will go to 40,000 electrons tomorrow. In terms of materials, I signed with Nvidia tomorrow, whether it is HBM3E8 or 12th. There's a slim chance that this will come out. Even if it comes out, the current market is unlikely to save Samsung Electronics with this material because SK Hynix is plunging by 5% today. Then something that goes beyond that should come out, but Samsung Electronics doesn't have that many cards to take out right now.

[Anchor]
Someone said to buy it from 50,000 electronic devices. That's an old saying, right?

[Jung Chuljin]
Don't be too blind to that at the moment. As I always tell you at this time, just look at the supply and demand first and foreigners have to buy it for at least five consecutive trading days. You have to buy about 3 trillion won to see that this price is the short-term bottom of Samsung Electronics as foreign investors see it, but as of now, there is no sign that foreigners will stop dumping.

[Anchor]
Domestic stock prices are a worry, but Bitcoin has wings. How far do you think it's going to go?

[Jung Chuljin]
I went for $90,000 last night in the middle of the day, but in fact, a case that needs to be considered a little bit broke out when Bitcoin exceeded $90,000. To briefly explain that the FBI is a polymarket, a cryptocurrency betting site, that is, this polymarket, is a close approval rating in various media when Harris and Trump campaigned last time, and it is the first time in the history of the 200-year election that such an ultra-close race has been won by Trump early on in the polymarket. While talking about it by a difference of 20% and 30% in betting.

[Anchor]
It was more accurate than a media poll.

[Jung Chuljin]
That was accurate. It was almost accurate. Another problem is that Trump will now become the president of cryptocurrency. Since he said he would use Bitcoin as a strategic asset and a strategic asset of the U.S. country, wouldn't the price of cryptocurrency be high if candidate Trump became president at the time? So, there is a part that came up a lot even before the election.

However, there is no accurate report on why the FBI has launched a house search for the CEO of the betting site Polymarket, but this is what it looks like at first glance. Because if you say a lot that Trump will be elected, of course, the price of the coin can go up, and it's a kind of market manipulation. But I was elected. So I didn't do false information, but I don't think I went in with this because I said that I think it would work for others.

If you go a little further, isn't Trump's cabinet decided one after another? Elon Musk will be the chairman of the government's efficiency committee called Doge before the defense minister is decided, and the FBI's lines will be replaced with Trump figures, especially out of loyalty. There must be something about Biden and the FBI's last wriggle. Bitcoin, which was $90,000 and 92,000, has been fluctuating since the announcement. Of course, I didn't lose a lot of weight. Therefore, I think we need to check whether the FBI's raid on the CEO of Polymarket this time can be a bit of a butterfly effect and whether it gives a kind of inflection point not only to the coin but also to the Trump rally.

[Anchor]
Dogecoin, which Musk loves, is also on a very steep rise right now. There was also a view that it was a little dangerous, but isn't it the name of the government department now?

[Jung Chuljin]
That's right. Coincidentally, I think he said it like Elon Musk. Government efficiency commisio, chairman of the Government Efficiency Committee. It's coming out now, and there's a head over there, and there are two things Elon Musk does. The first is deregulation, and the second is to streamline the government budget. So now Elon Musk can already shave a third off himself. So it's about spending your finances efficiently, but the problem is that Dogecoin is not as functional as Ethereum or Solar as we know it.

Nevertheless, it has almost quadrupled in the past month since the election, so as the anchor just said, "It's overheating, not a warning," but some experts who say that now are overshadowed, because they're not covering the front and back.

[Anchor]
However, according to the article, Bitcoin has risen so high that I'm afraid to buy it, and Dogecoin is still easy to access, so many people are paying a lot of attention. Is it dangerous?

[Jung Chuljin]
I don't think I'll do it in this situation. If you've already done it, look at the market price more. Even though the margin is secured. However, when we first started, we thought that we would be able to get a happy Trump rally by the inauguration of President-elect Trump on January 20, but the FBI is the CEO of the polymarket right now, and we don't know what's going to happen, and if you look at it now, the government bond rate has soared and the 10-year interest rate has exceeded 4.4%.

To be honest, even the U.S. can't stand it if interest rates go up. Because the U.S. now has almost 4 trillion won and 35 trillion dollars in Korean won, and the bond rate has reached 4.4% like this? The U.S. is also struggling to pay interest. Trump rally breaks down because there's one gateway for another Trump rally to cross on this fringe? Of course, coins can be broken first, so it's risk management, but I think this should be done according to the individual.

[Anchor]
As the coin frenzy blows, I'll tell you the last thing I'll tell you is that Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad and Poor Dad, said this is not the time to be greedy. This has been Jeong Cheol-jin, an economic critic. Thank you.